|
|
Top Bookie |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
online sports betting news
|
|
March 4th, 2010 / cyril
Quite recently the Football league saw it’s first Female Referee take charge of a match. Amy Fearns was running the line in the Coventry versus Notts Forest game when referee Tony Bates went off injured. So another milestone has been reached. How long before we see a FEMALE reffing a Premiership match? So on the subject of referees let’s have a look at how they are doing compared to the last couple of seasons. From last season’s list we "lost" Mike Riley, Rob Styles, Steve Tanner and Keith Stroud. Only three replacements were named. Gavin Ward, Kevin Friend and Anthony Taylor.
2007/08. Yellow cards are worth 10pts. Red cards are worth 25pts.
Top of the pile is Mike Dean, 107 yellows and 9 reds.
Mike Riley, 105 and 2.
Howard Webb 101 and 1.
Steve Bennett 99 and 5.
Alan Wiley 98 and 1.
Seasons Total Cards 1216 yellows and 61 reds.
That looks pretty formidable in itself. However when we look at AVERAGES, based on cards per game and their points value per card a very different picture emerges.
Matches. Average Cards. Average points per game.
Mike Dean 28 4.14 46.3
Mark Clattenburg 26 3.96 44.2
Lee Mason 8 4.12 43.1
Phil Dowd 22 3.41 38.9
Rob Styles 25 3.40 38.8
Collective Averages 380 3.36 36.0
—
Moving on to the next season, 2008/09, the top card waver is once again Mike Dean. He’s consistant, at least.
Mike Dean 122 yellows and 8 reds.
Howard Webb 114 and 6.
Phil Dowd 92 and 6.
Mike Riley 90 and 4.
M. Atkinson 86 and 6.
Seasons Total Cards 1198 yellows and 63 reds.
Messrs Dean, Webb and Riley once again take three of the top five places.
The AVERAGES however once again show a slighty different outcome.
Matches. Average Cards. Average points per game.
Steve Tanner 11 4.18 45.9
Mike Dean 31 4.19 45.8
Lee Mason 16 3.94 44.1
Mike Riley 23 4.08 43.5
Stuart Attwell 5 3.60 42.0
Collective Averages 380 3.31 35.7
Mike Dean loses his top place by 100th of a point.
This was Mike Riley’s last season. He’s sure to be missed. By someone, I’m sure.
Stuart Attwell may well have had more games but for his disasterous start. He can only get better. Can’t he?
—
We now arrive at the current season. A few old names missing and a few added. However, no doubt there will still be cases of managers calling the refs a few names.
Breakdown is as follows.
M.Atkinson 86 yellows and 7 reds.
Mike Dean 80 and 3.
Howard Webb 75 and 3.
A. Marriner 70 and 7.
Steve Bennett 73 and 3.
Phil Dowd 69 and 4.
Alan Wiley 66 and 4.
Up-to-date Total cards. 887 yellows and 49 reds.
Now the AVERAGES. A slightly different angle.
Matches. Average Cards. Average points per game.
A.Marriner 18 4.27 48.6
Mike Dean 19 4.36 46.1
M.Atkinson 21 4.23 44.5
Howard Webb 19 4.10 43.4
Steve Bennett 19 4.00 42.4
Stuart Attwell 12 4.08 42.1
Kevin Friend 10 3.30 39.0
Lee Probert 15 3.60 39.0
Collective averages 264 3.54 38.2
I’ve extended this list a little to encompass two "new boys". Stuart Attwell now in his second season in the "big time" and a real newbie, Kevin Friend. The former seems to be avoiding any flak this season but K.F. has been given a hard ride by some managers. having noticed how the newbies seem to "cop for it" in their first season, I’m beginning to wonder if certain managers try to use this as a tactic to condition the guys for the future.
The one thing that stands out from these figures is very plain to see. Dont mess with MIKE DEAN.
Category: Betting Advice
March 4th, 2010 / Lee A Jackson
Betting on the sub markets for football matches, can bring great rewards, but they often get overlooked, with focus falling mainly on the fixed odds outright betting selections. This is where some careful planning of betting strategies, whether it is at an online bookmaker like Boylesports or a betting exchange like Betfair, can really help with your sports betting. It is hard to overstate the importance of casting a meticulous eye over football statistics to help your betting. While it may not apply quite so much in making a selection on an outright winner, online betting enables you to take your time and dig a little deeper into individual match markets. He we take a look over some of those sub-market bets which offer a little more expansive choice. The Premier League isn’t the be-all and end-all of football betting of course, but the same principles can apply to all leagues, so that is where we shall look.
SCORE AND GOALSCORING PREDICTIONS
After the Outright betting markets, one of the most popular selections is the Scorecast market. This is where you predict the correct score, along with the first goalscorer. This is a real tempter, simply because the prices look mightily attractive on them. One thing to remember here, for goalscorer bets, is that any one of 20 players can score (ok, 22 if you count the possibility of a freak goalie goal), and 1/20 odds aren’t great. Another factor to add in here, is the fact, the longer the game stays at 0-0, substitutions will come into effect, so that extends the odds, as a sub can come off the bench in the last fifteen minutes and score a winner. Not to mention injuries. Looking at the goalscoring category, you can try and narrow the field a little bit, by naturally leaning towards the strikers, who will be at the shortest odds. Most teams will have a prominent midfielder who finds the back of the net, along with a centre half with a big presence at corners, so pay attention to them. If it’s looking like it is going to be a tight game, hone in on penalty takers. If you are a one man team like Manchester United or Liverpool, then jumping all over star strikers Rooney or Torres should help with your Scorecast betting at places like Stan James.
Check the stats of teams for high goalscorers, but one important stat to also look at for the Scorecast bet, is the penchant your team has for scoring in the early periods of a game. If you fancy Drogba as first goalscorer, for example, but Chelsea have a high percentage of goals in the second half, then check their opponent’s scoring times. If they lean towards early goals, then this could be a tool to help your betting strategies with this. Picking a scoreline itself is tough enough, but when doubling up with a first goalscorer, you are narrowing you odds of landing a winner. The average goal count in Premier League matches is around 2.5 per match, so 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1 and are most common scorelines. An Anytime Scorer bet, is an all round much safer statistical bet, in terms of cutting odds to get rewards. You’ll increase your chances of returns if you select Wayne Rooney as an anytime scorer, as opposed to first or last.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
Timing has more to do with football betting than one may think. Search the submarkets of any online bookmaker, and you will see time related goal markets. One of the leading markets in this is the Time of First Goal. Bet365 offer two different approaches to this scenario. The first option along these lines is a simple three way choice between: Up to and including 29th minute, After the 29th minute, or No Goals. Again you’re not going to be looking at huge profit, so anything around evens could be a nice little pick up. The No Goals option odds will be a bit longer, naturally, as goals are expected more than none being scored. The second approach to this, and this is where homework can pay off, is selecting smaller time brackets. Naturally on this, the shorter prices will be in the earlier brackets. So, again you can look at stats for the time periods when teams score most of their goals. You can look at 1-10 minutes, 11-20 minutes and so and so forth. If you think the two teams are going to hold out for a long period, then you will fall into the realms of the better odds. Again, this can be helped from studying form and statistics for your sports betting.
FIFTY/FIFTY CHANCE?
There are some interesting fields which can be delved into, which essentially offer a 50/50 chance on the market. The kind of markets which you can be looking at here, is the First or Last Team to Score, Total Goals odd/even. For most of these fields the odds are going to be relatively close, but there will be small variances on the level of opposition playing against each other. Manchester United v Portsmouth, for example, would give slightly shorter odds on United scoring first. Chelsea have scored first in 19 of their 28 matches, with Manchester United having done so 18 times, Arsenal and Liverpool both 17, so they can be backed with relative confidence.
Remember that while there may appear to be a 50/50 chance on say either Man Utd or Portsmouth scoring, there is the third factor to take into consideration which will reduce the odds to 33.3%, and that is the event of neither team scoring. There are not a high percentage of 0-0 draws, out of nearly 250 games this season in the Premier League, there has been just twenty 0-0 draws, which makes up 7.3% of results. If this is still a worry, then look up the high scoring teams and you should be able to effectively reduce the risk of a 0-0 result happening. Ask yourself, how often are Manchester United going to roll out to a 0-0 draw?
Further stats to back up bets like this, is the one that reads that 2.77 average goals per match this season in the Premier League. That leans towards there being goals in the match. If you do want a genuine 50/50 shot at an outcome, then go seek a Goal/No Goal market. Anything around Evens on there being a goal is a fair shout, again bearing in mind the low count of 0-0 draws. Small profit it may be, but at least there is profit to be gained from online bookmakers.
DOUBLE OR NOTHING
Another option, is the Double Chance, which increases your chance of winning a bet, but decreases the odds. This narrows the field of results, by letting you win should two of three match outcomes occur. In a match, there is obviously only a home win, away win or a draw which can happen. For example, if Bwin are offering a Double Chance on Arsenal v Burnley, then you could select “Arsenal or Match Drawn” as one bet. Odds on that aren’t going to be great naturally, but at least it covers your bet a little more, and will offer better odds on evenly matched teams. Alternatively, looking at doubles for football betting, you can split your options a little bit further, by going for a Half Time/Full Time result, or often called a Double Result. This is when you go to your online bookmaker like Bet365, and select the half time result and full time result in the same match, all in one bet. So, for example, you could select “Draw – Liverpool” bet if the Reds are slow starters, but usually come through in the end. You should be able to pick up some pretty fair odds on these types of markets. You can always take the single option on this as well, by just plumping for the halftime result alone (ie. Home, Draw or Away).
HANDICAPS
These are great options for picking up some extra rewards. Asian Handicap betting has become increasingly popular, as you back or bet against a result happening with a handicap in place at the start of the game. These allow for extra chances on a match result, so, for example, if you backed Chelsea to beat Stoke at Victor Chandler with +1 goal Asian Handicap on Stoke, then your winning potential is increased when compared to a straight outright bet. In this instance, if Stoke Win or Draw, your bet will win. If they lose by 1 goal, you will get a stake refund. Asian Handicap betting is well worth exploring and is a little from straight Handicap betting. Similarly if you want straight Handicap betting, then it could be worth investing some time in.
PROMOTIONS
Always keep a keen eye out for promotions from your online bookmaker, which are specifically geared towards these sub-market categories. For example, some bookmakers may offer refunds on lost Score Prediction stakes if a certain player scores the last goal of the match. Paddy Power and SportingBet are great exponents of promotions such as these, but you should be able to pick up plenty of specials and promotions with your online bookmaker.
OTHERS
As football betting is so vast, there are many more submarkets to get into on specific games. Based on the average goals per match statistic in the Premier League, betting on Total Goals has a lot of potential, and that also leads you into the Over/Under markets for matches as well. Take a dip into the Winning Margin market as well on a match, if predicting an actual score does not take your fancy. The point of all this is to explore a little deeper with your online bookmaker, because whether it is SkyBet, Coral or Ladbrokes, you will be able to find deep markets, with reduced risk. These are worth playing with in order to enhance your betting experience and pick up a little extra profit, outside of the regular Outright football bets. Good stats sections are available with most online bookmakers, to help you plan your betting strategies, and spreading your bets can have advantages.
Category: Betting Advice
February 24th, 2010 / cyril
This should really come in three versions. The Full Monty and the Lite Version and the Super Lite.
Being mid-season, I’ll opt for the Lite Version, myself.
The Full Monty.
This should begin at the start of the season. However I would, personally just "go thru’ the motions" until teams have played at least six games each.
Obviously records must be kept in order to up-date ratings. The ELO system starts with 1000 points per team. Whether this is a good thing or not is debateable and really down to individual choice. I would only begin with a bank if I intended to use the system for cup-ties. Something I would be loathe to do. Cup-ties are often a death knoll to ratings. If the ELO model is to be followed, a starting figure for each lower division must be devised, first.
I have devised my points system on the premise that the home team has a built-in advantage and subsequently points awarded to aways teams are "LOADED" to take this factor into consideration.
As goals win matches you will see that I give this a big consideration when rating each match, up to a point. If a team wins, say 4 – 1 I don’t really see that it is worth less than the same team winning 5 – 2. So I do not give a rating for any score above 4 – 4. If a match goes about this, I regress by one goal at a time from each team. e.g 5 – 2 would become 4 -1 and 7 – 3 would become 4 – 0. From my experience of football over 65 years there is a point in high scoring games where teams tend to relax and having the points in the bag can get a little careless. It can be pointed out that this might not seem to be correct when there are 4 – 4 draws. True but there are always exceptions to all rules and laws.
Recent form, should always take precedent. Whether or not it should be rated at a higher level than earlier form is debateable. For my own part, I would keep the first six match ratings intact and them when the seventh game was rated, I would halve the rating of what would be the very first match to have been rated. Then match by match the oldest "full" rating would be halved. Always rounding -up any half point. Recent form must always be given fullest consideration.
Historical Form. Whilst "what is past, should remain in the past", this doesn’t seem to apply to football results. Some teams just can’t "cut-it" on certain grounds or against certain opposition. There was a time when ‘Spurs went over 90 years without a win at Anfield.
So to give some consideration to this phenomenon I propose to take into consideration the last three games played on the home teams ground. Nothing complicated, just allow for each win, draw or loss. As usual, the away side will receive a slightly higher allowance for wins or draws.
The "Lite" version works exactly as the fuller version except that the last six matches are taken into consideration plus the three historicals too.
The Super Lite works slightly differently in that the last six games only are rated, on a slightly different scale and takes virtually no time at all.
Having a ratings system to use is just the first step. The next step is the most vital step. How to decide the size of the gap, between each teams rating, that will define whether it becomes a home, an away or a draw. This is best covered by keeping accurate records of each game rated. It will be easier to compare these figures if they are turned into percentages. (Take the home teams rating, then divide it by the total of BOTH teams ratings and multiply by 100. The away teams percentage will be 100 minus the home teams percentage). This method will be ideal for use with the Full Monty, due to the number of rated games growing over the season. It can, of course, also be used with the other two versions, if required.
What percantage decides what is a prospective home win? I consider at least 60% of the ratings total would give a sound indication of a HOME WIN. For an AWAY win, I would be a little harder to persuade below 65%.
Where to operate the ratings? Perhaps, look for a league or leagues that have an above average return of home wins. Three that are amongst the strongest leagues are Braziliero, our own Premiership and Italy’s Serie "A". maybe look at the leagues that don’t get too much attention from the bookies. The odds -makers spend more time on the stronger leagues than say, the Conference League. So if you’re looking for additional "value", you could do worse than checking-out some of the minor leagues.
Another thing to beware of is the "Unexpected" result. To overcome this, become selective in the matches you choose to bet on. One of my ways of sorting them is to divide the league table into four. Using the Premiership this would leave you with just ten teams to worry about. The reasoning about this is that when an "Unexpected" result turns up, it usually involves team(s) from these two areas. Additionally, keeping to middle of the table teams will give you teams that are closely matched and therefore you will get better odds for your stake.
I also think you will find some "solid" away lays using these ratings. Braziliero, MLS and the Premiership hold a lot of promises for this type of bet.
Another point worth memtioning is with regard to "Streaks". Be wary of a team on a streak. Especially an away side. When streaks reach around EIGHT be very wary. The only times I am prepared to think lightly about a "streak" is when it involves a home sides unbeaten run. However once it were to reach twelve I’d then steer clear of it until it ended.
As I always maintain, an individual’s experience is vital when operating systems. No matter what the subject matter is, horses, football or anything else.
Put your own stamp on it. A tweak here, a tweak there. If it doesn’t work out, just return to the basics and have another go. You’ve nothing to lose.
GOOD LUCK.
Results Home
| Rating |
|
HOME |
|
| |
WIN |
DRAW |
LOSE |
| 5 |
|
0 - 0 |
|
| 10 |
1 - 0 |
|
|
| 0 |
|
|
0 - 1 |
| 8 |
|
1 - 1 |
|
| 15 |
2 - 0 |
|
|
| 0 |
|
|
0 - 2 |
| 12 |
2 - 1 |
|
|
| 2 |
|
|
1 - 2 |
| 10 |
|
2 - 2 |
|
| 20 |
3 - 0 |
|
|
| -6 |
|
|
0 - 3 |
| 18 |
3 - 1 |
|
|
| -4 |
|
|
1 - 3 |
| 16 |
3 - 2 |
|
|
| -2 |
|
|
2 - 3 |
| 15 |
|
3 - 3 |
|
| 25 |
4 - 0 |
|
|
| -10 |
|
|
0 - 4 |
| 22 |
4 - 1 |
|
|
| -7 |
|
|
1 - 4 |
| 20 |
4 - 2 |
|
|
| -5 |
|
|
2 - 4 |
| 17 |
4 - 3 |
|
|
| -2 |
|
|
3 - 4 |
| 15 |
|
4 - 4 |
|
|
|
Results Away
| Rating |
|
AWAY |
|
| |
WIN |
DRAW |
LOSE |
| 8 |
|
0 - 0 |
|
| 12 |
0 - 1 |
|
|
| 0 |
|
|
1 - 0 |
| 10 |
|
1 - 1 |
|
| 18 |
0 - 2 |
|
|
| 0 |
|
|
2 - 0 |
| 16 |
1 - 2 |
|
|
| 5 |
|
|
2 - 1 |
| 14 |
|
2 - 2 |
|
| 25 |
0 - 3 |
|
|
| -2 |
|
|
3 - 0 |
| 22 |
1 - 3 |
|
|
| -1 |
|
|
3 - 1 |
| 20 |
2 - 3 |
|
|
| 0 |
|
|
3 - 2 |
| 18 |
|
3 - 3 |
|
| 30 |
0 - 4 |
|
|
| -5 |
|
|
4 - 0 |
| 27 |
1 - 4 |
|
|
| -3 |
|
|
4 - 1 |
| 24 |
2 - 4 |
|
|
| -2 |
|
|
4 - 2 |
| 22 |
3 - 4 |
|
|
| 2 |
|
|
4 - 3 |
| 18 |
|
4 - 4 |
|
|
The above points system is used for both the Full Monty and Lite Version.
The following small set of ratings is for use with the Head to Heads, as well as the Superlite (last six games only) version:
Ratings
Home Win 10pts
Home Draw 5pts
Away Win 12pts
Away Draw 7pts
Use the same scale of rating figures as above.
Category: Betting Advice
February 23rd, 2010 / Lee A Jackson
With the Champions League into the knockout stages, it draws a lot of online betting attention. You can always plan your betting strategies by casting an eye over some useful statistics. This can provide a wealth of information when it comes to sports betting, as history can give some useful pointers about how things in the present may go. Teams do build up good runs against other teams, and some teams have much better records at home. Knowing the main source of goals can also pay dividends when using the goalscorer markets with online betting. All stats below reflect only players/teams left in the competition.
Champions League Stats:
Top Active Goalscorers:
Cristiano Ronaldo, Real Madrid, 6 (Evens at SkyBet)
Falcao, FC Porto, 4 (28/1 at Totesport)
Michael Owen, Man Utd 4 (33/1 at 888Sport)
Milos Krasic, CSKA Moscow, 4 (33/1 at SkyBet)
Didier Drogba, Chelsea, 3 (9/1 at Blue Square)
Paul Scholes, Man Utd, 3 (40/1 at Bwin)
Nicolas Anelka, Chelsea, 3 (16/1 at Ladbrokes)
Ronaldino, AC Milan, 3 (80/1 at Boylesports)
Marlen Pjanic, Lyon, 3 (66/1 at SkyBet)
Alberto Gilardino, Fiorentina, 3 (50/1 at SkyBet)
Cesc Fabregas, Arsenal, 3 (66/1 at Bwin)
Hulk, FC Porto, 3 (50/1 at Ladbrokes)
Lionel Messi, Barcelona, 2 (9/1 at Totesport)
Goals Scored
Fiorentina 15
Real Madrid 15
Arsenal 13
Lyon 13
Manchester United 13
Bayern Munich 11
Chelsea 11
Least Goals Against
Bordeaux 2
Lyon 3
Barcelona 3
Sevilla 4
Porto 4
Chelsea 4
Olympiacos 5
Inter Milan 6
Bayern Munich 6
Attempts on Target
Porto 56,
Arsenal 55
Real Madrid 55
Man Utd 54
Barcelona 46
Fiorentina 46
Lyon 45
Champions League Goal Times
Minute 1-15 = 37
Minute 16-30 = 34
Minute 31-45 = 33
Additional time (1st half) = 6
Minute 46-60 = 34
Minute 61-75 = 38
Minute 76-90 = 53
Additional time (2nd half) = 15
Champions League Outright Prices
Barcelona – 3/1 at SkyBet
Chelsea – 9/2 at Bet365
Man Utd – 11/2 at Totesport
Real Madrid – 13/2 at BetFred
Inter Milan – 14/1 at BetFred
Bayern Munich – 14/1 at Totesport
Arsenal – 14/1 at Coral
Category: Betting Advice
February 10th, 2010 / dave
Many of us won’t need reminding that the highlight of the National Hunt season is taking place in March, with Cheltenham providing us with four days of high quality horse racing that represent one of the busiest periods of the UK betting calendar.
Starting on Tuesday 16th March and finishing on Friday 19th March, this four-day period will see the bookmakers really go to town with their free bet offerings. With so many people wanting to bet on the Cheltenham Festival these days, you will see many bookies increase their new customer bonus, while existing customers can also expect to see a few emails in their inbox which offer them a free matched bet.
It doesn’t matter if you’re not the world’s biggest horse racing enthusiast as the bookmakers don’t always specifically require you to place qualifying or free bets on a particular market. Therefore, if you’re predominantly someone who bets on soccer, tennis or cricket, then you can often simply take advantage of the firms wanting to appeal to the many potential customers who will be betting on some or all of the twenty-six races that are being run at Cheltenham.
It’s particularly worth keeping your eyes peeled for what William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral are prepared to offer new and existing customers. The ‘Big Three’ in terms of UK high street presence aren’t renowned for being overly generous with their free bet offering, although horse racing is a hugely important sport for these firms and we might expect to see them double their current £25 free bet offers or even quadruple them. Therefore, this might be the perfect time to open an account with these bookmakers if you haven’t already done so.
As far as betting on the Cheltenham Festival is concerned, the races are very competitive and it’s hard work to make a profit. If you are looking to place some horse racing wagers and increase your balance, you need to be disciplined and only pick a handful of races in which to place a bet. There are many ‘bankers’ that get tipped ahead of the Festival, although previous years have shown us that very few of these good things actually finish first in their race!
The highlight event of the week is the Gold Cup, which takes place on Friday 19th March. There’s the exciting prospect of Kauto Star and Denman going head-to-head once again, with Paddy Power offering a best price 11/8 that the former wins this race for the third time, although it was Denman who won the event in 2008. Ladbrokes offer 9/4 that no other runner lives with the high cruising speed of the Paul Nicholls horse.
Dunguib runs in the first race of the Festival and will be heavily backed to get the punters off to a flyer. Paddy Power and Coral both offer 5/6 that there plenty of hats thrown into the air as the horse passes the post in first place, and this appears to be one of the few occasions where an odds-on favourite merits the price.
Category: Betting Advice
February 6th, 2010 / Lee A Jackson
Latest Six Nations news update:
Injuries are grabbing the latest headlines ahead of the weekend’s matches. That and the pretty awesome Morgan Freeman “Invictus” promo video for the tournament, which has him reading William Henley’s famous poem (it’s the poem which Nelson Mandela had with him during his imprisonment). Ahead of the England v Wales game, Wales were dealt a massive blow when world class flanker Gethin Jenkins has picked up a calf injury which means that he won’t be able to take the field at Twickenham on Saturday. Jenkins is one of the world’s star players in his role, and his presence will be a major loss as the Welsh try to take England on up front. But England were similarly struck with the injury bug, as last seasons top try scorer Riki Flutey has withdrawn through injury. His presence will also be missed as England look to take a more creative, attacking approach to the game. Leicester’s Toby Flood will take over the number 12 shirt on Saturday.
Saturday’s other game sees Ireland take on Italy, with the Irish having to play up their confidence in their scrum, and is the one area where Italy could cause them problems. With the Irish expected to take on the defence of their Six Nations crown with some aplomb, the other nations will naturally be looking to find some kind of weakness there. Hooker Jerry Flannery has admitted that they need to improve their scrummaging from what was on display during the autumn. Italy will be without pivotal figure of Sergio Parisse for the entire 2010 RBS Six Nations Tournament.
Latest Match Prices
England to win: 8/13 at Totesport
Draw: 22/1 at Bwin
Wales to win: 6/4 at Bet365
Ireland to win: 1/33 at Coral
Draw: 50/1 at Bet365
Italy to win: 22/1 at SportingBet
Scotland to win: 5/2 at SportingBet
Draw: 25/1 at Paddy Power
France: 2/5 at Totesport
Category: Betting Advice, Sports Betting
February 4th, 2010 / cyril
There are only a few Summer Leagues and each is very much "It’s own man". Braziliero for instance had only TWO games in which the away side was quoted at odd-on. One was successful and in the other game, a draw was the result. Similarly the American MLS also had only TWO games where the away side was at odds-on. These both went to the away side.
The IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE was the most prolific in all ways.
25 AWAY TEAMS @ ODDS-ON 17 WERE SUCCESSFUL 68%. The other eight matches were split 4 homes 4 draws.
The odds on offer for most of the sides were not unreasonable in many cases. In fact only 6 were offered at LESS THAN 1.65.
A point worth noting about these away teams. In the games that they won they conceded on only three occasions. Also, twelve of their winning games were UNDER 2.5 goals.
SWEDEN, ALLSVENKAN.
Here there were just 13 aways at odds-on, with eight successful. Once again the available odds were at the higher end of the scale with just one at less than 1.65.
Goal scoring exploits here are interesting. Five of the eight away winner’s games produced OVER 2.5 goals. The other three were each 0 – 1.
SWISS SUPER LIGA.
Just ten games here to consider. These were split as, 5 aways, 4 homes and 1 draw. There were two quotes below 1.65.
Four of five "aways" were OVER 2.5 goals.
NORWAY TIPPELIGAEN.
Only 8 matches here 5 aways, 2 draw and one home. One team was quoted at 1.65 the rest being 1.82 or better.
One "away" ended 0 – 1, the other 4 were all over 2.5 goals.
FINLAND. VEIKKAUSLIGA.
The most prolific of the Scandinavian Leagues.
Out of 18 odds-on quotes there were ten successful. The other eight were split equally as homes and draws. Backing these eight games it was possible to make a minute profit.
Two of these games ended 0 – 2, the remaining eight were all over 2.5 goals.
The "goals" per game figures do make interesting reading. For those people who back the overs and unders markets, there might well be something here for you to ponder over.
How to make use of these figures is down to the individual. If you are swayed towards the Exchanges then these figues might well enhance your TRADING prospects.
In fact, this season does for some reason, which I haven’t yet fathomed, appear to be completely out of "kilter". Some of the results have been hard to assess. More worrying though is the fact that, the odd team apart, nobody can string a few decent results together. The PREMIERSHIP, in particular is a prime case. If any of the top three hit a bad patch, who would be likely to take advantage? The next four in line are chasing the last Champions League place but all are as bad as each other, in that they just aren’t consistant.
For this reason I would think that the best chance of making some cash from the bookies,etc, is through TRADING. If anyone is unaware of this method of betting, I would advise them to go onto the Internet and make use of the vast resources that are available. The EXCHANGES are there, make use of them.
Category: Betting Advice
February 3rd, 2010 / dave
There is a breakaway leader at the top of the scoring charts, with Wayne Rooney’s recent four-goal salvo against Hull shooting him clear of his nearest competitors. With the England striker scoring at the Emirates on Sunday, the bookmakers aren’t expecting anyone to usurp the Manchester United striker, with Coral prepared to offer a best price 4/9 ahead of the Red Devils’ encounter with Portsmouth on Saturday. It’s in this match where the 24-year-old could effectively win the contest, although stranger things have happened than someone bridging the five-goal gap at the top.
Especially when you consider that Didier Drogba has fifteen goals to his name this term after scoring the equaliser at the KC Stadium on Tuesday night. The Ivorian has a phenomenal strike rate in a blue shirt and Stan James’ 8/1 could be an interesting price when you consider he’s playing against favourite team Arsenal on Sunday! The bookmakers are still also offering each-way betting on the contest, with firms like bet365 offering 1/3 odds for the first two places and Sporting Bet offering 1/5 odds for the first three places.
Indeed, it’s crying out for a bookmaker to offer a “without Wayne Rooney” market, with Jermain Defoe (7/1 bet365) also having fifteen goals to his name and Darren Bent (20/1 bet365) having scored fourteen despite playing for a Sunderland team who have been struggling for months. Fernando Torres was the original favourite on this market at odds of around 4/1 and, while the Spaniard got off to a flying start for Liverpool, it was almost inevitable that injury would halt his in his tracks this term. Definitely one to swerve at short odds next term if he’s still playing at Anfield!
Meanwhile, there is a big chase for fourth place in the Premier League this term, something which would provide access to next season’s Champions League. There is a massive financial gulf between qualifying for Europe’s blue riband club competition and the Europa League, with Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham and Aston Villa all pushing hard to be in the top quartet. It’s Spurs who currently occupy that golden fourth place, with bet365 offering 10/3 that they are rubbing shoulders with the likes of Barca and Real next term.
However, the bookies think it’s more likely to be Manchester City who take their place among Europe’s elite. They certainly have the biggest finances, although they look defensively suspect away from home and odds of 10/11 (Paddy Power) that they snare a place in the Champions League might not be to everyone’s liking. Liverpool are still realistic contenders, having finished in the top four for several consecutive seasons and bet365 offer 15/8 that they feature in next season’s competition. Aston Villa might be the outsiders, although they have a strong first team and the backers of the 9/2 (Sporting Bet) might just have themselves a value bet.
Category: Betting Advice
February 3rd, 2010 / dave
While it’s clear that In-Play betting is becoming increasingly popular with customers, there are still many of us that like to place antepost bets either before or during the start of the football season. While a bet on a live game is often settled within minutes, a long-term bet means that you can enjoy your wager over the course of the season, before eventually it’s settled as a winner or loser by May.
There are still several issues to be decided in the Premier League, with the winner likely to come from a select group of two teams. Despite talk of Liverpool and Manchester City mounting a challenge this term, they are 100/1 (Sporting Bet) and 33/1 (Paddy Power) respectively to finish top of the pile. In addition, many people have started to write off Arsenal (for the second time this season) after the Gunners lost 3-1 at home to Manchester United on Sunday. Arsene Wenger’s team are now out to 10/1 with Sky Bet to win their first title since 2004, although it appears that they might not have enough quality.
Which leaves us with Chelsea and Manchester United. The Blues have been trading at odds-on for most of the season and the Blues are still available at a best price 5/6 (bet365), despite drawing with Hull on Tuesday. Carlo Ancelotti’s team still have to visit Old Trafford this season, something which might convince many that the Red Devils are clearly the value bet at 6/4 (Ladbrokes). With United having an easy match against Portsmouth on Saturday and Chelsea entertaining Arsenal on Sunday, it could be all change at the top.
While only three teams can possibly win the Premier League, it’s fair to say that eleven sides could be relegated this term. Some shrewd punters were backing Portsmouth at fancy odds of 5/1 before the season started, although their financial state and bad opening results saw Pompey quickly start trading at odds-on. It seems implausible that they are going to get out of the bottom three by the end of the season, although Coral and Victor Chandler are still prepared to offer odds of 1/5.
If Avram Grant’s team are doomed, then every other team will believe that they can escape the drop. Indeed, Hull City didn’t look like a team destined for the drop when drawing with Chelsea on Tuesday and Coral have eased the Tigers to 8/11 on their relegation market. Phil Brown’s team never give up and actually have form at the KC Stadium which might allow them to survive. Burnley are the same price (8/11 bet365) to return to the Championship next term, with the Clarets sinking like a stone in previous months. You could have backed them at around 4/1 when they had a bright opening to the campaign, although they need some inspiration from somewhere.
Wolves (11/8 Ladbrokes), Bolton (7/2 William Hill), Wigan (5/1 Ladbrokes) and West Ham (6/1 Stan James) are definitely too close to the bottom of the league for comfort, with the Hammers a surprisingly big price purely because they have new owners who have drafted in Benni McCarthy and Mido. It promises to be a scrap to the death at the wrong end of the Premier League table.
Category: Betting Advice
January 26th, 2010 / dave
On Wednesday morning, we visited bet365 (one of our favourite bookmakers) to check out their Australian Open tennis coverage. The prospect of being able to watch the quarter final between Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal made lots of appeal, especially as the streaming would be accompanied by a wide range of In-Play markets.
There are two ways to watch the live streaming of sporting events at bet365. You can either
1) Click through from the homepage and have the In-Play odds accompanied by the action in a small window
OR
2) You can visit their ‘Extra’ section and watch the game using a standalone format.
Naturally, if you’re placing live bets, then you’ll want to choose the former. While bet365’s live streaming is generally free to watch, requiring you simply to have signed up (but with no deposit require), a 10 Euro bet is required to watch this Grand Slam tennis event. Once you have placed this wager, then you can watch every single game being shown and bet365 will also add 10 Euros to your free bet balance.
Although the contest was over in three sets, the bookmaker were struggling to separate Murray and Nadal ahead of Wednesday’s match. They provisionally made the former favourite at 5/6, with the Spaniard at even money, although after the world number two won the first rally, the prices changed to 10/11 for both players! Such is the volatile nature of In-Play betting on tennis.
In addition to the match winner market, the In-Play customer is spoilt for choice at bet365. They can bet on markets like:
Current Set Winner
Point Betting (where the player serving is roughly 4/9 compared to the 7/4 about the receiver)
Next Game (where the server is usually around 1/7 compared to the 9/2 about the receiver)
In this match, neither player were proving too strong on their serve and you would have made a handsome profit from backing the non-server in every game!
If you think that’s the tip of the iceberg for bet365’s In-Play betting, think again! Live markets also include:
- Next Game to Deuce – whether a particular game will go to 40-40
- Next Game Score – eg Murray is 10/3 to win his next game to love, with 40-15 the 12/5 favourite
- Race to 2,3,4 and 5 Games – where the player serving first in the set has the obvious advantage
- Games in Current Set – where you can bet Over / Under a certain number of games, eg 9 or less is 13/8, while eleven or more is 6/4
- Current Set Score – where Murray to win 6-3 is 15/4, but Nadal is 13/5 to win 6-4.
- Total Sets – 3 sets 13/8, 4 sets 6/4, 5 sets 21/10
In the first set, it’s Murray who has the upper hand when going 4-2 up and bet365 make him 2/5 to win the match. On the set score betting, the Scot is 4/6 to win by a 6-3 scoreline and he duly obliges by serving out to take it. The world number five is slight favourite (4/5) to win the second set, with Nadal even money. At this stage, the Brit can still be backed at 21/10 with bet365 to win 3-0, with no hint that Rafael Nadal might be carrying the injury which will eventually rule him out.
At 2-3 in the second set, Murray finds himself three break points down and this time there’s no great escape. Nadal goes 4-2 and is now slashed to even money for the match on the bet365 In-Play console. Murray remains the slight 4/5 favourite. You can back the Scot at 6/1 to win the second set, with his Spanish opponent available at 1/9. All the latter needs to do is hold his serve, although Rafa isn’t serving many aces and Murray earns two break points during the seventh game. His price is provisionally cut to 4/7 (Nadal 11/8) and, once the break is achieved, the British number one is now 1/2. It’s interesting to note that Murray is still the 13/10 outsider with bet365 to win set 2, with the bookies clearly making it a big disadvantage to be serving second.
After Andy Murray wins the second set on a tie break, he is now 1/6 to win match. Many punters will be delighted that they backed Murray to win in straight sets at 10/11 before his opponent unfortunately succumbed to injury. We have discovered that bet365 offer a cutting-edge In-Play console for their customers, with tennis betting proving highly volatile and exciting!
Category: Betting Advice
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|