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Considering the Paddy Power Imperial Cup at Sandown is always a tremendously competitive handicap hurdle on paper, favourites have had a particularly impressive record in recent seasons. In the last 10 years, five market leaders have been first past the post and, of course, there’s a big bonus awaiting the winner if they go on to success in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham next week. That all bodes well for Qaspal, who still holds an entry at the Festival and is probably improving more quickly than the handicapper can reassess him. Not only that, Philip Hobbs‘ gelding has already won at Sandown and will again have Tony McCoy in the saddle. With Qaspal (a general 9-2) only carrying 10st3lbs, the partnership should take all the beating, although there aren’t many obvious front-runners in the 26-strong field which is a slight cause for concern. Ruby Walsh rides Pepe Simo (7-1 with Skybet, Totesport and Victor Chandler) for champion trainer Paul Nicholls. But he has a lot of weight for a novice and I’d be just as interested in stablemate Pistolet Noir at more than three times that price (a general 25-1). Still only a four-year-old, connections paid a handsome sum to buy him out of Nick Williams‘ yard after he won at Cheltenham in November and he has to be of interest in his first handicap off a mark of 137. Another relative lightweight that appeals at a big price is Cheshire Prince. A regular winner on the flat, the Desert Prince gelding has taken well to hurdles and has already scored twice at Huntingdon (latest success has worked out well) this season. He appeared to find two and a half miles beyond him at Doncaster last time but was still far from disgraced and a return to a stiff two miles is very much in his favour. As he hails from an unfashionable yard, bookmakers may have been guilty of underestimating his chances and I’ll be having a little bit of the 33-1 that Skybet, Betfred and William Hill have priced him up at. The sponsors, by the way, are guaranteeing you’ll be paid at the best price if taking their current odds on the race.

SportingBet are kicking off their Cheltenham festival horse racing betting, with a special refund promotion. The online bookmaker, who launch their Cheltenham Micro-site on Friday in anticipation of another great festival, will refund stakes if your horse falls during any race of the Cheltenham Festival. All of the racing action starts with the Supreme Novice hurdles on Tuesday, March 16th with all of the betting leaning towards unbeaten red hot favourite Dunguib. The Irish entrant is already a short price at 10/11 with SportingBet, with the main contender being Get Me Out Of Here, who is back at 11/2.

The SportingBet Cheltenham Micro-Site promises plenty of horse racing betting promotions for the Cheltenham festival, which of course culminates in the Gold Cup showdown on Friday between Denman (4/1) and Kauto Star (6/4). Along with great features, you will of course be able to get the best of the SportingBet horse racing prices, as well No Runner No Bet feature on all of the races. One of the biggest racing dates on the calendar, head on over to SportingBet to follow all of the action. SportingBet already provide great coverage on horse racing, including a radio service and a wonderful stats section.

I’m reliably informed that the idiom ‘horses for courses’  originated in the latter part of the nineteenth century. The sentiment is as true today as it was back then, however, and a prime example is Pasco. Paul Nicholls‘ seven-year-old has won three of his five starts at Newbury, venue for this weekend’s Grade 3 Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase, and finished as runner-up in the other two, most recently when only beaten half-a-length when trying to give Mount Oscar 6lbs over C&D in November. Big things were expected of Pasco last season after he’d won two of his first three races over the larger obstacles. But he’d probably gone off the boil by the time Cheltenham and Aintree came around and he’s been a little stop-start this campaign, falling on his return to action at Kempton and running much too freely when only third at Exeter on his latest outing. Critics maintain that his last run proves he doesn’t truly stay beyond 2m, but I won’t buy into that. I think a more sustainable theory is that Pasco simply acts best on a flat track and there aren’t too many inclines at Newbury. At 4-1 with William Hill, he makes infinitely more appeal than stablemate Big Fella Thanks (a general 8-1) who needs a lot further than this. A similiar remark could also be applied to Our Vic (10-1 with Paddy Power and Sportingbet) who also seems to prefer the mud nowadays and hails from a yard going through a pre-Cheltenham lull, and Can’t Buy Time (7-2 with Blue Square). Likely to be vying for favouritism with Pasco come post time after a a surprise win at this level over 2m5f at Cheltenham last time, this easier track may not be ideal and he looks high enough in the weights now. Battlecry earns top marks for consistency (he’s finished second in his last three races) but fewer for attitude. He appears to ‘throw the towel in’ (there’s another popular saying for you) far too readily for my liking once headed and I think there is better value than the 13-2 on general offer for Trevor Hemmings’ front-runner. The selection, then, is Pasco – why ignore the obvious?

Nacarat’s demolition of a 20-strong field in last year’s Racing Post Chase at Kempton will live long in the memory and Tom George appears to have specifically prepared his charge for a repeat bid 12 months later. I’ll accept that the grey is closely matched with top weight Madison Du Berlais (9-1 with Victor Chandler) on their run together behind Kauto Star in the King George over the same course and distance in December but David Pipe’s gelding disappointed at Cheltenham next time and it remains to be seen if first-time blinkers instead of his usual cheekpieces will re-ignite his enthusiasm. Nacarat, on the other hand, has plenty going for him here not least the fact that Tony McCoy, on board for two of his three wins over fences in this country, is back in the saddle. This is a race in which the classier chasers towards the head of the handicap have dominated in recent years so Nacarat, set to carry 11st8lb, is firmly in the preferred weight range and may still be a bit of value at Paddy Power’s 4-1. There has also been support this week for Emma Lavelle’s Kilcrea Castle (into a general 6-1), who was third to The Sawyer over 2m6f at Ascot last month. But I can’t see any reason why he should overturn that form with runner-up Miss Mitch, despite having a slight turnaround in the weights. The Alners’ mare has never won over 3m under rules but she gives every indication the extra distance won’t worry her and looks a cast-iron each-way alternative at 7-1 with sportingbet. With Paul Nicholls‘ Fistral Beach (6-1 with William Hill) set to race from out of the handicap proper, the pick of the lightweights may be Oedipe. He was only 10th in this last year but was much more like his old self when fourth on his belated reappearance at Sandown earlier this month and is now dangerously well handicapped on the form he showed when landing a valuable handicap at Aintree in April 2008. Providing he doesn’t get too far behind in the early stages, a small each-way saver at a general 14-1 could reap some reward.

The weights for the John Smith’s Grand National in April were published this week and, as always, they’ve invoked optimism and disappointment in equal measure. Trainers who have been pleasantly surprised by the weight their charges have been allotted are usually, understandably, coy about revealing their feelings but those who feel the handicapper have served them an injustice are never slow in letting those involved know about it! One such is Mouse Morris, who has all but already ruled out former Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition (quoted at 20-1 by Blue Square and 888sport) telling the Racing Post he was, "more than a bit baffled and very disappointed" having been given 11st1lb. Former winners Mon Mome (33-1 with Stan James), Comply Or Die (a general 25-1) and Silver Birch (a general 50-1) remain on track for the big race, however, as do Tricky Trickster and Niche Market, first and second in Newbury’s Aon Chase. The former heads the early ante-post market at a general 12-1, while the latter can be backed at a general 16-1 along with Dessie Hughes‘ Irish raiders Vic Venturi and Black Apalachi, first and second in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse and both already winners over the Grand National fences. Coral will give you odds of 2-1 that an Irish horse wins the race again in 2010 and another interesting runner from the Emerald Isle could be Willie Mullins’ Arbor Supreme. Successful in long-distance chases at Punchestown and Fairyhouse in 2008 and usually at his best in the spring, the eight-year-old has been lightly campaigned this season and  is by no means overburdened with 10st8lbs. He can be backed at 40-1 with sportingbet, Coral and William Hill. Big Fella Thanks (20-1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill) looks to be the number one hope of the powerful Paul Nicholls yard but I like the early look of Character Building at 33-1 with Victor Chandler, Ladbrokes and William Hill. John Quinn’s grey, winner of last season’s Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, proved his stamina when runner-up in the 4m National Hunt Chase when only a seven-year-old and looks to have been campaigned with an Aintree bid in mind this term.

Miko De Beauchene, 10-1 with sponsors Blue Square and 888sport to win this year, managed the feat and Dream Alliance can follow in his hoofprints in 2010. What am I talking about? The Coral Welsh National/Blue Square Gold Cup double! Philip Hobbs has been unstinting in his belief that his gelding would one day develop into one of the country’s leading staying chasers and Dream Alliance finally appeared to come of age at Chepstow in December. Runner-up to subsequent Gold Cup winner Denman in the Hennessy in 2007, connections of the nine-year-old than had to endure a frustrating sequence of runs in which Dream Alliance failed to complete. But it transpired he had a tendon injury that required complete rest, indeed there were fears that the horse may never race again. But, after 18 months on the sidelines, he delighted his trainer with a second over hurdles in November and proved he was back to his best when storming to victory in the Welsh National, beating Silver By Nature, Le Beau Bai, Miko De Beauchene, Ballyfitz and Coe in the process. Now some would argue that a few of those behind have every chance of turning the tables here with the winner racing off a 9lb higher mark and Le Beau Bai (6-1 with Blue Square and 888sport) has won over hurdles since to prove his wellbeing. But I think Dream Alliance (7-1 with Blue Square, 888sport and William Hill) will be even better over this slightly shorter trip and could yet prove he is a high-class stayer. Of those behind at Chepstow, Coe (a general 7-1) is arguably the most interesting this weekend as he travelled strongly for a long way in front before tiring and has a decent record around Haydock. Another with a proven track record is Our Vic (20-1 with Victor Chandler and Stan James) who had 2009 Grand National winner Mon Mome (a general 12-1) trailing under a similar weight over 3m here last month. His welter burden may bog him down over this extra half-mile, however, and a more interesting each-way prospect could be Nick Williams‘ mare L’Aventure (a general 16-1) who is a former Welsh National winner herself. She won over 4m at Kelso in December so clearly retains plenty of ability and is the type to run a big race off a light weight in the mud around here.

What is patently obvious, looking at the stats of this week’s Totesport Trophy at Newbury, is that anything trained by either Nicky Henderson or Gary Moore deserves the utmost respect. Henderson saddles four in this year’s renewal of the UK’s most valuable handicap hurdle with stable jockey Barry Geraghty partnering Spirit River, an impressive winner on his latest outing at Cheltenham in December. Spirit River (a general 7-1) has only had five career starts to date so is probably open to more improvement than most and it’s easy to see why he currently heads the market. Stablemate Fairyland (22-1 with sportingbet) is also an interesting runner, however, in that she’s a recent C&D winner (beat Frontier Dancer here last time) and stays further than this 2m, a valuable asset to possess in a race which is always run at a tremendous pace. But I think the Moore yard has tremendous prospects of landing a third consecutive Totesport Trophy via Harry Tricker. The six-year-old displayed a tremendous turn of foot to beat an in-form Zabeel Palace at Sandown in November before splitting Champion Hurdle prospect Khyber Kim and subsequent Grade 2 winner Medermit in the prestigious Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham shortly after. The handicapper saw fit to raise Harry Tricker (8-1 with Ladbrokes, Betfred and on betfair) 12lbs for that but regular jockey Andrew Glassonbury reduces that burden by 3lb and this appears to have been his target for a while. Given luck in running, Harry Tricker’s speed could be the deciding factor in this. Other contenders to watch out for include the novice Manyriverstocross (11-1 with Stan James and Coral) whom Alan King rates highly. He was a decent stayer on the flat and has carried that form into his hurdling career though he weakened quickly over a longer distance here last time, and Mamlook (a general 9-1 chance). The latter won a shade cosily at Ascot last month after travelling strongly throughout but he isn’t that big and there’s a chance he may get bullied in this big field over a trip that is probably on the sharp side for him nowadays and punters have been preferring stablemate Ronaldo Des Mottes (10-1 on Coral and sportingbet) so far. Takeroc (11-1 with Coral) has proved popular with punters since it was announced he was to be partnered by Ruby Walsh but he hasn’t shown enough over hurdles for me to warrant his price and neither has Tony McCoy’s mount Get Me Out Of Here, 8-1 with bet365 and Stan James, who may be unbeaten but has never met opposition of this calibre before. Songe (a general 40-1) has reportedly been rejuvenated by a soft palate operation and is well treated on his best form. If the ground turned really heavy he would be of real interest and certainly makes more appeal as an each-way investment than some at much shorter odds.

The frost may have deprived us of one major national hunt betting heat at Doncaster last week but the weather forecast for Town Moor looks more favourable for this weekend and I fancy the talented Tartak to go very close in the Blue Square Handicap Chase. Traditionally, this is a race in which the up-and-coming classy chasers excel. No horse carrying less than 11st has triumphed since 2003, while you would have to go back another year to find a winner aged nine or older. Take into account those stats and what, on paper, looks a very tricky puzzle to solve suddenly becomes less complex. I’ve a lot of respect for top weight Kalahari King (available at 10-1) but trainer Ferdy Murphy has already stated that his season-long target is the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March, for which he is also a general 10-1 chance, so this run might be needed after a 287-day break. Not surprisingly, Paul Nicholls‘ two runners are well to the fore in the betting with stable jockey Ruby Walsh preferring the consistent Free World (5-1 in most places), who has been placed in his last six starts, ahead of last year’s winner I’msingingtheblues. The latter, available at a general 8-1, is 7lbs higher in the weights this time around. But if you’re looking for value (and who isn’t), how about Tartak? The seven-year-old can be backed at 12-1 with totesport, betfred, victor chandler, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and William Hill, who seem to have priced up Tom George’s gelding on the basis that he’s never won over a trip this short before. His stamina, however, is what attracts him to me in this contest. He’s been pitched in against top-class opposition so far this term and was far from disgraced when 5th in the Arkle Chase last season over 2m when finishing ahead of I’msingingtheblues (4lbs worse off). The weights today also give him every chance of reversing that form with runner-up Kalahari King and, with a plethora of front-runners to ensure a strong gallop, Tartak should also have the race run to suit. You only have to go back to Aintree last year, when Tartak beat Deep Purple, Planet Of Sound and Calgary Bay, to realise that he shouldn’t be anywhere near his current price!

I know how much of a trek it is from Devon to Doncaster. I used to go to school within hailing distance of Town Moor and most years our annual holiday consisted of an 11-hour drive down to the west country to spend two weeks in a static caravan, usually to stare at puddles in Ilfracombe. Nowadays, of course, a much-improved road network means you can cut that journey time in half but it still represents a significant undertaking transporting a horse those 270 miles and not one that a trainer like Victor Dartnall would consider without good reason. Therefore, I’d ask you to mull over carefully the reasons why the aptly-named Exmoor Ranger is in South Yorkshire this weekend. For starters, this is a chaser very much on the upgrade judged on his comfortable win at Newbury in late November. That didn’t look a great race at first glance but third Victorias Groom has won twice since to boost the form and, going on previous runnings, Exmoor Ranger slots nicely into the ideal weight/age range for this week’s Skybet Chase and should be suited by the easy 3m. With his jumping problems apparently behind him now and top Irish jockey Davy Russell booked, the general 9-1 is well worth the gamble. Theatrical Moment steps out of novice company and onto a reasonable mark for his handicap debut over fences but his best price (Coral’s 9-1) reflects this, while layers are being similarly avaricious with the prolific Seven Is My Number (a general 7-1). My worries about the latter would be that he is too high in the weights considering he was effectively handed his two most recent wins on a plate and is up against far more experienced rivals here. Allied to that, David Pipe’s gelding may struggle to confirm Bangor form with Khachaturian on 8lbs worse terms and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing the latter, who looks well treated, at Paddy Power’s 12-1. Soft ground would bring Gone To Lunch (a general 25-1) into the equation, providing he’s fully recovered from his Welsh National exertions, but those conditions wouldn’t suit last month’s C&D winner Calgary Bay (11-1 with bet365), who is 11lbs higher today, while Killyglen (widely available at 11-1) has questions to answer after a shocking effort in the Hennessy at Newbury in November. General 12-1 chance Trabolgan looks a light of former days so we are sticking with Exmoor Ranger to bring home the spoils.

It was once drummed into me that value is all a matter of perception. Take, for example, this week’s Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot. Twist Magic is a general 11-8 favourite to land this prestigious Grade One contest and, on form, you’d probably say deservedly so. He won at this level at Punchestown last season and was most impressive in accounting for Forpadydeplasterer and Well Chief in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown last month. The third re-opposes here but has 24 lengths to find on Tingle Creek form and at the age of 11 can hardly be expected to find the improvement to reverse the placings. Not only that, David Pipe’s charge traditionally doesn’t stand a lot of racing so the fact that this is already his fourth run of the campaign may count against him. Twist Magic is much more resilient and also seems happier on a right-handed track like Sandown and Ascot. Evidence this week suggests the cold snap hasn’t set Paul Nicholls‘ string back as far as some yards so there shouldn’t be any doubts surrounding a fitness but let me introduce, nevertheless, a note of caution about the favourite. He was beaten in this at odds-on two years ago off the back of a win in the Tingle Creek and is a horse that can be pressured into mistakes. So will be the one that takes him on be Petit Robin? Nicky Henderson has always held this French import in high regard and he began to fulfil his potential last season, progressing from handicaps to finish third in the Grade One Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March. Always prominent when beating Well Chief by just under four lengths on his reappearance at Kempton over Christmas, Tony McCoy will be under orders to ensure there’s a fast pace here to bring the seven-year-old’s stamina into play and Coral’s 11-4 is likely to come under pressure given connections. Back, though, to the question of value. Imagine you have £40 to wager, do you lump it all on Twist Magic at 11-8  for winnings of £55 – or would it be better invested as £20 each way on a 25-1 chance with Ladbrokes who looks to have been underestimated. The latter would win you £80 for making the frame and, while I’ll admit at first glance Oh Crick has no chance of reversing Exeter running in November with either Cornas (a best 9-1 here) or Twist Magic, first appearances can often be deceptive. Alan King’s yard was woefully out of form when Oh Crick finished fifth in the William Hill Gold Cup and his trainer freely admitted afterwards that his charge was in need of the run more than most. One only has to cast one’s mind back to Cheltenham and Aintree last spring to recall how much untapped potential lies within Oh Crick. Few handicappers are progressive enough to defy a penalty at the Grand National meeting after winning one of the big handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival but the seven-year-old achieved the task and also had the form of the second success franked by the runner-up shortly after. King reports that Oh Crick is as fit as he can get him and is promising a much-improved performance from Exeter. Given that the master of Barbury Castle isn’t normally given to rash statements, that 25-1 quote will be enough to tempt me this weekend.