England v Australia – Pakistan v New Zealand – ICC Champions Trophy Semi Finals

The final group stage of the ICC Champions Trophy lived up to its expectations, as Australia nervously beat Pakistan, taking it all the way to the last ball of the match. In the low scoring match, Pakistan, batting first, appeared to have lost their chance of a victory as they only just edged their way over 200. But one thing Pakistan does possess is an awesomely diverse and potent bowling attack, and after initial resilience by the Aussie top order, Pakistan took control. The Aussies were crumbling, but tail enders Brett Lee and Nathan Hauritz managed to get them home, needing 18 runs from 18 balls at one stage. It took a last ball run on a bye to get the crucial victory, which sees the Aussies go into the semi finals against old foe England.

It is a sudden return to a ODI clash between England and Australia, who came together seven times during the Ashes series, of which Australia won the first six. England rallied to a last match win to save some embarrassment of a series white-wash, but since landing in South Africa have found a new lease of life. They somewhat surprisingly beat two of the competition’s favourites in South Africa and Sri Lanka to guide them into the semi final. However, a last group match failure on a bowler friendly wicket against New Zealand, meant that the Kiwis topped the group. England will have been keenly watching the Aussies in action against Pakistan, and will likely have seen signs of encouragement that they can make it to the final.

For England to win, the bowlers will need to get into the top order as soon as possible. That’s no easy task with the likes of Ponting, Watson and Hussey. But the middle order collapse will have given the England bowlers something to look at. It is arguable that England do not have the same quality of bowling attack which Pakistan do, and that may count for a lot. There is also the downside that the Aussies batsmen have seen so much of the England attack, that they can comfortably cope with them. On the reverse side of that, England even through the 7 ODI games, could still not get to grips with the Australian bowlers. The New Zealand loss, may have served a good purpose in bringing the team back down to earth after their two impressive wins.

One bad game doesn’t make for a bad team. Two good games does not make for a good team. England are no better than they were two weeks ago when they were facing the series whitewash. With the Australian game washed out against India, it has been hard to judge just how good the Australians really are against top quality sides. They looked set to post a big total against India, but they didn’t look overly convincing against Pakistan, who showed that they had the edge over India. The state of the wicket could make a huge difference, and the semi final against England is back at Centurion Park where they played Pakistan.

The Centurion wicket should be fairly predictable, yet able to offer seamers and edge with the moisture that it holds. This could be a key factor for Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad, England’s main bowling threats. But where England bowlers can flourish, so too can the Australian pace attack, which can be lethal. Brett Lee and Mitchell Johnson will be tearing in, and captain Andrew Strauss will need all of his batting order to stand up and be counted.

England have late fitness concerns over Stuart Broad, who has a torn muscle in his backside. They will also be closely monitoring the health of wicket-keepr Matt Prior who was absent from the last two games due to illness. England have already flown out Steve Davies as cover, for batsman Eoin Morgan has been filling in as keeper. There is a strong chance that either Davies or Prior will just come back into the side, and out will go the struggling Ravi Bopara. There will be anxious breaths held over Broad’s fitness, and if he cannot make it, then they will have to pick from Tim Bresnan or Adil Rashid. Australia will be without stand in skipper Michael Clarke as he’s gone home with a lower back injury. They have called up David Hussey as cover.

Betting Advice:
England v Australia
The defending champions will start as favourites against England, just as South Africa and Sri Lanka did. These two sides are probably sick of the sight of each other, Australia perhaps less so because they know they should have the comfortable beating of England. Unfortunately it is hard to see the England bowling attack making a huge dent in the Australian batting order. All to often Ponting has virtually scored more than the England top order put together. This should be the difference on a good bowling track, and while the England batsmen have had a little resurgence, the game against New Zealand showed just how fragile they really are.
Australia to win: 8/13 at SportingBet
Top Batsman: Ricky Ponting – 11/2 at Blue Square

Pakistan v New Zealand
The Kiwis have been ravaged by injury, yet still managed to top Group B, thanks largely to an impressive win over Sri Lanka. However, Pakistan will be a different kettle of fish for the battling New Zealanders, and they will meet their match in them. Pakistan probably have the best bowling attack left in the competition, simply because they have sheer pace and guile with their spinners. The Kiwis are always humble and know they are the underdogs. Can they rise to the occasion? Unlikely.
Pakistan to win: 8/13 at 888Sport

One Interesting bet: Pakistan/England Final – 3/1 at BetFair
Why? Neither side have won the tournament, and this is the perfect opportunity for a new name on the trophy.

To Win ICC Champions Trophy Outright
Australia: 6/5 at BetFred
Pakistsan: 12/5 at Blue Square
England: 9/2 at Boylesports
New Zealand: 5/1 at Stan James