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Goal scoring stats – football betting strategies

Still scoring goals!

30th March 2012 / cyril
Cyril's Betting Advice

Whenever I look at stats I’m drawn towards those denoting GOALS. Don’t know why but I am.
Every match depends on goals for it’s outcome and some sides are more adept at scoring than others. Of such things fortunes are made and lost.
In the PREMIERSHIP season there are 380 matches played. The highest number of different scores amassed in a season has been 32. (2003/04).
For the most part you can say that there will be between 4 and 10 matches where the score will appear only ONCE in a season. Usually where the home side score 6 0r even 7 times.
However, go to the other end of the scale and there are nine scores which are well worth scrutiny.

These scores are, of course, the most likely to occur in your average match.
Checking through the last eight seasons results, these scores have occurred 2,182 times. From a  total of 3,040 games.
That’s a percentage figure of 71.77. Current season’s figures are 66.19%. Perhaps we can expect a glut to bring up the average.

The scores in question are set out below. From left to right each seasons total, from 2010/11 backing down to 2003/04.

                                        Total.
0 - 0   25  32  42  26  34  32  30  41   262.       20
1 - 0   40  33  42  43  40  54  43  35   330.       24
0 - 1   14  26  30  31  35  28  36  27   227.       15
1 - 1   52  39  34  52  45  32  54  42   350.       35
2 - 0   30  34  34  34  31  40  34  26   263.       19
0 - 2   13  16  16  23  17  23  11  18   137.       15
2 - 1   40  42  36  29  42  30  30  34   283        20
1 - 2   24  19  25  21  20  26  17  28   180.       30
2 - 2   27  21  18  17  15  11  22  19   150.       10
Total  265 262 277 276 279 276 277 270  2182.

The last column is this season, before matches played 20/03/12.

What do these stats teach us?

Well, for a start, the last two seasons fall a little below expectations. The other six seasons show a remarkable consistency.
The three winning away totals are amongst the lowest four totals.
The three home win scores have the best returns, 876 (40.14%). The three draw scores are next best with 762 (34.92) and the three away winning scores return just 544 successes. Being (24.93%).

How best can these stats be turned to good use? Should you fancy a home win the three scores, 1 – 0, 2 – 0 and 2 – 1 should be employed. At approximate prices of 10.0, 14.5 and 10.0 respectively 100pts would return 368pts. This would give a leeway to further investment should that prove necessary and still achieve an overall profit.

A more cautious approach would be to take the above three hoped for winning scores and combine with the draw scores @ 12.0, 8.0 and 17.0. These scores would return a total of 185.67pts. Again allowing for further investment if thought necessary.
There are many ways to use these stats. Even backing all nine scores in any match you would still make a profit at the average returns.

Another useful choice would be to take the home or away trio and, using other stats add either one or maybe two of the three draw scores. The combinations are many and using experiences derived down the ages a profitable set of choices can be made.

I have checked out four scenarios using the following criteria. Home team favourite at odds against. Using the mythical 100pts again the total return would be 132.50. The second example is the favourite playing away at odds against. Here the return would be 131.74pts. Next is the favourite at home but at odds-on. Return 139.65pts. Finally, the favourite playing away but being offered at odds-on. This one returns 136.90pts.

Good match choices are necessary of course but it shouldn’t be too hard to find at least one close match from the usual league fixture lists. As always when looking at scoring capabilities of any two sides, it is important to refer to historical results between the pair. Herein will be found many good leads to their scoring abilities.

The nine scores above would return  profit in seven of ten matches if long term stats are accurate. However the returns would not cover the losses incurred in the other three matches. Although at average returns the total loss would be around 50pts. It should be within the remit of an experienced forecaster to overcome this loss figure and turn a nice profit on a regular basis.
Especially at this time of the season when concentrating on the teams whose season is virtually over. Those with nothing to play for other than a reasonable position in the table. These sides tend to freewheel, especially when playing a similarly placed team.

As usual these stats should give a good basis for those who like to build their own strategies. Any strategy that is used should be “paper-trialled” over a reasonable period of time and different staking methods applied to each of them.  A backers strength is usually based on the amount of study put into the selection method. The more midnight oil being burned the likelier an increase in profits.

Incidentally, matches between ” nothing to play for sides” tend to end with low “card points”. When league points aren’t so essential these sides don’t seem to give the referee too many chances to waive his cards.

Bet sensibly and only with money you can afford to lose.



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