Inter Milan vs Chelsea. Betting odds favouring Mourinho on home form

The big influx on sports betting, and football headlines of the week will be surrounding the re-uniting of The Special One, Jose Mourinho with Chelsea. Inter Milan host Chelsea on Wednesday, the second of two major Italian v English Champions League clashes. Manchester United beat AC Milan 3-2 at the San Siro last week, and Chelsea will be hoping to leave with less damage done to their defence. Mourinho spent 3 and a half successful years at Stamford Bridge, winning the Premier League title twice for the Stamford Bridge outfit, building a lot on defence. Now he will have to use all of his craft and while to undo a lot of the legacy that he built, which still remains in place today under the new management of Carlo Ancelotti.

Mourinho is one of the great characters of the game, and is something to consider when looking at online betting prices on this match. Between two evenly matched teams, the manager can make all the difference. Both confident and outspoken, Mourinho certainly knows how to play up to the press, and is in many ways refreshing in his honesty. He left Stamford Bridge under a bit of cloud, but his efforts were greatly appreciated by the Chelsea faithful. Mourinho took over at the helm of Inter Milan, after they sacked now Manchester City boss Roberto Mancini for not brining them Champions League success. That is the amount of pressure which Mourinho is under, and while they are stretching their legs at the top of Serie A, domestic honours is often not enough these days for Europe’s elite. A season is apparently not complete without Champions League honours.

For the Nerazzuri, three Serie A titles in a row certainly wasn’t enough, and it cost Mancini his job, and Mourinho has yet to make a real impact with Inter in the Champions League. Keen to build a team with his identity all over it, Mourinho sold Zlatan Imbrahimovic, and brought in Samuel Eto’o, Wesley Sniejder and Diego Milito, which many believe gave Inter a lot more strength. Since the deal, which was a gamble, betting on team quality as opposed to a superstar, Inter have developed from being a one dimensional team, which was hitting the big man Ibrahimovic, to one with attacking threat from everywhere. Sneijder and Diego Milito look to have been two strokes of genius by The Special One, as both have been in outstanding for this season. The pressure is now on Mourinho to deliver in the Champions League, and to make Inter one of the strong favourites, like Barcelona, Real Madrid and Wednesday night’s opponents Chelsea, season after season.

Inter suffered a small set back on Sunday, when they were held to a 0-0 draw against Sampdoria, in which they had Walter Samuel and Ivan Cordoba sent off. Betting on them remains strong to win Serie A, but perhaps discipline is becoming a factor as the pressure mounts, as Sniejder was shown a red card too in their derby win over AC Milan. That wasn’t the end of it though, as two more players picked up bans for incidents off the pitch, and Mourinho will find himself in hot water again after making a “handcuffs” gesture about the refereeing decisions going against his team. Mourinho doesn’t believe that too much has changed since he left. After recently taking a trip to Stamford Bridge to soak up the atmosphere and so that the return fixture wouldn’t get caught up in the emotions of the first time being back there, Mourinho understands exactly where Chelsea are at under Ancelotti.

Mourinho believes that defensive tactics and positioning are the same, the formations of a 4-4-2 diamond and a 4-3-3 which Chelsea switch between are still in place from his days there. So to is the warm up procedure, and of course, the bulk of the players. The likes of Terry, Lampard, Carvalho, Joe Cole, Ashley Cole and Didier Drogba were all part of Mourinho’s success at the club. Chelsea are top  of the Premier League at the moment, but haven’t looked as consistent as in past season. Still, they remain one of the favourites to lift the domestic title, as well as the FA Cup and Champions League for the first time. They are the nearly men of the Champions League, and Mourinho himself suffered two semi finals defeats while in charge. It is hard to see Inter losing at home, as Mourinho hasn’t lost a home league game in 8 years, and betting strategies should reflect that, as well as Chelsea‘s slightly dodgy away form.

This is the big clash of knock-out stages, and a tight game should be in order. Does Mourinho have an advantage by knowing Chelsea? Or do the Chelsea players have an advantage in knowing Mourinho? Chelsea earned a battling 2-0 win away at Wolves on the weekend, and they have had their problems against lower opposition away from Stamford Bridge this season. They do have the players with the big match experience though, and they will need all of that on Wednesday night. Inter Milan keeper Julio Cesar was involved in a car accident on Sunday, which may keep him out the first leg, with bruising and cuts. He will be assessed ahead of the game, otherwise Francesco Toldo will step in.

BETTING STATS

Last 5 Match Goals (League)
Inter Milan: 5 For, 1 Against
Chelsea: 8 For, 5 Against

Overall Stats (League and Cups)
Inter Milan: P35, W22, D10, L3
Chelsea: P39, W27, D8, L4

Win Percentage
Inter Milan have an overall 62.9 win percentage
Inter Milan have a 75.0 win percentage at home

Chelsea have an overall 69.2 win percentage
Chelsea have a 47/4 win percentage away from home

Last 10 Match Form
Inter Milan: W6, D4, L0
Chelsea: W8, D1, L1

Champions League Form:
Inter Milan: DDDWLW
Chelsea: WWWDWD

Match Prices:
Inter Milan to win: 7/4 at Totesport
Draw: 21/10 at Bwin
Chelsea: 19/10 at BetFred

Asian Handicap Betting Advice: Not much to choose in the betting above, but Inter’s a pretty nice price at home. Inter Milan finished as Runner’s Up in their group, behind Barcelona. They did hold Barca to a 0-0 draw, so this isn’t going to be an easy task for Chelsea, although only two wins for Inter out of their six group matches wasn’t startling form. They have a great midfield, but there shouldn’t be too much to chose between the teams on the night. A draw is favourable in the betting, but Chelsea shouldn’t be too overawed by the occasion. Carlo Ancelotti will know about the Italian way of course, and should be an even contest between two very good sides. Depending on which way you are going to lean here are some betting options. 
Chelsea +0.5 Asian Handicap: 1/2 at Bet365 is a decent price
Or
Inter Milan -0.75 Asian Handicap: 2/1 at Bet365 is a similarly nice price