Italy v Ireland Six Nations Rugby Betting Preview, Odds and Tips – Saturday, February 5th

Italy v Ireland may not exactly be the most exciting of fixtures on the opening weekend of the 2011 RBS Six Nations, but this is a pretty interesting one to watch. Ireland, for all their great presence in the Six Nations, have been slipping back a little this year. They don’t come into the tournament in any great form themselves, losing six test matches on the bounce, including a shocker against Scotland in the final match of last year’s tournament. You always expect Ireland to give a tough match to any opponent, and with the World Cup coming up this year, you really expect them to be strong. However, they are just the opposite at the moment, they are weakened (not helped by injuries) and are looking to find a way to bounce back. That all sounds doom and gloom for the Irish, and while they are a bit short on confidence, clearly, they will probably still challenge for the Six Nations title, and they have been handed a good start. Even though it is an away match, they should be able to win this comfortably and get some momentum going. Even during the matches which they did win in the autumn against Argentina and Samoa, they weren’t their usual explosive and dominant selves and it raises a big question mark over their ability to win the Six Nations this year. There seems to have been a shift of power back to England, for dominance in the home nations, even down to club level, and all of a sudden, the golden generation of Irish rugby looks to have come to and end. As sad as it is, Declan Kidney can ill afford any nostalgia, and needs to get fresh faces into the team. This is a must win game in Rome, and if the unthinkable were to happen and Ireland lost, you would really have no idea where they would go from there. Kidney would know where to go, and that is probably out of the door.

Ireland have been hit with the projected loss of Andrew Trimble and Tommy Bowe who are among seven potential starters ruled out of the Italy match, so they won’t be at full strength. The usual qualities of Ireland are just lacking a bit at the moment, perhaps cohesion and confidence, and they look a shadow of the team which won the Grand Slam just a couple of years ago. That sound efficiency in both attack and defence, that strong stepping up into the line, simply isn’t there, and the Irish will have to work a lot harder to their rewards this year, as opposed to relying on their inherent talent and teamwork. It’s not all as bad as it seems though, as they can still field plenty of talent with the likes of Brian O’Driscoll pulling the strings, and they have been dealt a huge helping hand with the fixture list. They take on France and England at home, the other two main contenders for the Six Nations title, and wins in those matches (against who they have done well in recent times) and they will be in the hunt. They don’t look quite so certain as they should be on the road, but at least the trip to Italy is a good way to start their campaign. They should find the going relatively easy against the Italians, who are still trying to hone that ideal mix of veteran and youthful talent, and this really could be an important game in the context of Ireland’s Six Nations campaign. It as game in which they can not only win points, but perhaps more importantly, confidence. The way through the Italians will be by keeping the ball in hand through the back, and avoiding too much contact up front, where the hosts will be a lot stronger.

In fact, Italy have a great front line, full of pace and power, and no doubt, they will enjoy patches of the Six Nations where they are getting on top of the opposition. The problem with the Italians is of course, consistency and stamina, and it is rare that you will see them last the full eighty minutes in playing an entirely solid game. They do play with a lot of heart though, and it is indicative of their standing in the Six Nations, that the only teams they have beaten is Wales and Scotland. You have to ask yourself whether you can see Nick Mallett’s Italy winning two games out of their five to try and avoid the wooden spoon. It looks very unrealistic, even though they are steadily improving. They have thrown young 20 year old Edoardo Gori in at scrum half, who is something of a prodigious talent, supposed to mature into one of the best in his position in Europe. This is a big stage for him, and there are some good young Italian players coming through the ranks. That is not going to help them too much in this campaign, but they really need to get experience and build for the future. They have always been gutsy, and not afraid to have a go, but they should have a hard time breaking down the Irish defence really. The Italians, it must be said, do look very good up front, and the more they keep the ball there, and keep the game tight, the better off they will be in the long run. By tiring the Irish out, that is the only way they are going to win this game. Struggled to beat Fiji in the Autumn, and while this game against Ireland may get away from them, there is definitely something to build upon.

A look at the stats sees Ireland with a massive advantage in the head to record. In all matches between the two sides, Italy have won just three, while Ireland have won 15 of their 18 matches. That’s a whopping 83% success rate against the Italians. In terms of current runs of form in the fixture, Italy have lost fourteen in a row to Ireland, and this is why this match should be in the bank for the visitors. The largest winning margin for Ireland over Italy was a 61-6 thumping, while Italy’s biggest success was a 37-22 triumph. The average points scored though really tells the tale. Italy have averaged just under 18 points per match against the Irish, while Ireland have averaged 33 points per match in the fixture. The total points are almost double in favour of Ireland, and while the Irish aren’t in great form at the moment, they should play this out to a comfortable victory. No reason to expect anything else.

Last Year’s Result: Ireland 23, Italy 11
Ireland Last Year’s Six Nations Finishing Position: 2nd
Italy Last Year’s Six Nations Finishing Position: 6th

Italy to win: 11/2 at Boylesports
Draw: 33/1 at Bet365
Ireland to win: 3/19 at Bwin