Saturday and Sunday’s British betting preview

Saturday 27^th February

English Premier League

Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic

Birmingham have stuttered of late after a fantastic run of games unbeaten so they will be determined to get back on track and to winning ways when they host Wigan at St Andrews.

Alex McLeish has worked wonders with his Birmingham side after winning promotion to the top flight last season. He bought shrewdly with the acquisitions of Scott Dann, Roger Johnson, Christian Benitez and Barry Ferguson all coming in during the summer transfer window. All 4 have been exceptional for the most part and played a huge part in City’s 15 match unbeaten run earlier in the season. These 4, along with Joe Hart, Lee Bowyer and Cameron Jerome have built an excellent spine down the centre of the side which has made them resilient, hard to beat and disciplined. Their strength is shown with them having the joint best home defensive record in the league, losing just 8 goals in 13 matches thus far, which has resulted in them losing only 2 at St Andrews. Their record against sides below them in the table at home has been good, with wins over Wolves, West Ham, Blackburn, Sunderland and Portsmouth already. Bolton are the only team currently below Brum who have escaped with all 3 points – it took a late goal for this to occur.

Wigan are still in the thick of a relegation battle after going on a run of 6 games without a win in the league. Roberto Martinez’s side suffered a heavy defeat in their most recent game against Tottenham at home. The first goal in a 3-0 reverse was blatantly offside but it shouldn’t mask the fact that Wigan offered nothing in an attacking sense and looked decidedly weak, slow and cumbersome at the back. Unsurprisingly the have only scored 3 goals in their last 6 matches which doesn’t bode well for Saturday as they were playing against far weaker defences than the only they’ll be up against at St Andrews. Part of Martinez’s problems have been the lack of goals but the main problem is their porous defence. Wigan have the 2^nd worst away defence in the Premier League, the only above them in this table is Burnley who haven’t won away from home all season. Wigan’s away record isn’t too bad for a team fighting relegation as they have been victorious 3 times on the road already this season. Their wins have come against Wolves, Aston Villa and Burnley. The win over Villa was a freak result in the sense that it was the opening day of the season and they have never looked like emulating such a win again.

McLeish’s side are so good at frustrating the bigger teams so it will be interesting to see if they adapt this style of play and take the game to the visitors. If they do change and be more expansive, it could mean they leave space for the likes of Hugo Rodallega and Charles N’Zogbia. I think McLeish is too canny for that and he’ll stick to his side strengths of having two compact units of 4 and trying to hit the away side on the break using the pace of Benitez and Jerome. Both players should relish the prospect of playing against Gary Caldwell and Titus Bramble. Both are very awkward when up against pace and power in my opinion, especially Caldwell. The Scottish international is a good reader of the game and his distribution isn’t the worst but he’s not physical enough for a centre half which could prove to be Wigan’s downfall come the end of the season.

Birmingham have won both games against Wigan at St Andrews in recent years and they will have targeted this match as one where they can get back to winning ways. They’ve not lost a home game since that defeat to Bolton back in September and I can’t see a poor Wigan side altering that statistic come 5pm on Saturday. Birmingham will be pushing for their best finish in the league for a long time and I think they’ll get another 3 points in this fixture.

My selection: Birmingham to beat Wigan

Best odds available: Evens available with Betfred

English Premier League

Burnley v Portsmouth

It will be Premier League first on Saturday when Burnley take on the first top flight side in England to go into administration – Portsmouth.

Brian Laws took the reigns from Owen Coyle in January and has tasted victory once thus far – a 2-1 win over West Ham in their last home match. For all their failings on the road (and there have been many) their home form is still more than decent with 6 wins and 4 draws from the 12 games played at Turf Moor this season. The only team to beat them at home, other than Wigan, were Chelsea at the end of last month, and even that was a close run thing. They are most definitely difficult to beat on their own patch. They are also beginning to get key players back at the right stage of the season with Martin Paterson returning last week and Steven Caldwell also getting back to fitness.

Portsmouth have had a disastrous season already and it’s set to get worse tomorrow (Friday) when they officially enter administration and automatically incur a 9 point penalty deduction. They’re already 7 points adrift at the bottom so when the penalty is incurred they are as good as relegated. It’s a shame for the players, supporters and the likes of Avram Grant who have done nothing to deserve such problems, but for the likes of Peter Storrie and the multiple owners who have tried to make a quick buck and totally mis-managed the finances of the  club in the last few years, it’s nothing more than justice. You simply can’t break the rules so extremely and expect to get away with it in the long run. They’ll go down because they deserve to. On the field Pompey have 1 win and 10 defeats from 13 away games and have lost 7 of their last 8 away league games.

Laws and Burnley are running out of games between now and the end of the season and they know that Saturday’s game is a must win if they are to survive their maiden season in the Premier League. Home games will be vital in their bid, especially home games against sides in and around their own position in the league. Pompey are the only side below them in the league at this point but it’s not all bad, only 4 points separate 7 positions and a win on Saturday could arguably see the Claret’s move to 14^th providing other results go their way,

You expect nothing else other than Portsmouth to give 100% on Saturday as they have done in every match this season, but the hype, attention and scandal surrounding the club at this moment is bound to have an affect. They have struggled on the road for the whole season and as I have already proven, Turf Moor isn’t the easiest of hunting grounds.

Burnley need the points more and I think their desire will prove to be too much for a club in crisis.

My selection: Burnley to beat Portsmouth

Best odds available: 6/5 available once again with Betfred

Sunday 28^th February

Scottish Premier League

Rangers v Celtic

It’s derby weekend once again in Glasgow when Celtic travel across the city to take on their bitter city rivals at Ibrox.

Rangers go into the match with a 7 point lead, a game in hand an 20 goals better off in terms of goal difference. The league really is theirs to throwaway and it will be a surprise if they don’t make it back to back league championships in May. Their team is not the greatest to watch, they don’t play free flowing football but their style of play is effective. They have a strong goalkeeper and defence, a hard working midfield and a good partnership upfront with Kenny Miller and Kris Boyd. They are undefeated at home this season and have already defeated Celtic in the league earlier this season – a 2-1 win back in October. Manager Walter Smith is likely to have a fully fit squad to choose from with Allan McGregor likely to take his place in goals despite being assaulted last Saturday in Glasgow. Smith will more than likely line up 4-4-2 and try to overpower Celtic using Lee McCulloch and Kevin Thompson as his midfield partnership.

Celtic are massive underdogs in the league but anything can happen in this fixture as we all know. They have played Rangers off the park twice already but only have a single point to show for their efforts. The last match between these two was the most one sided game I’ve watched in a long time – if it a was a boxing match it would have been stopped at half time. With a mix of shocking refereeing and some horrible finishing from Celtic, the match ended in a 1-1 draw. Celtic have failed to record back to back wins in the league since the beginning of December which is a damning statistic only made worse hen you consider it’s against teams such as Aberdeen, Kilmarnock and Falkirk. Tony Mowbray knows his side are in last chance saloon on Sunday and it’s up to them whether they take it or not.

Marc Antoine Fortune has been a big player for Celtic of late and his performance in the last game against Rangers was excellent. He dominated both of their centre halves and they couldn’t cope with his pace and power. His partner that day was Giorgios Samaras who missed a glut of glorious chances which were created because Fortune pulled the defence all over the place. On Sunday his partner will be Robbie Keane so it’s a massive difference in terms of quality, ability and bottle. Keane has done it all throughout his career and he will be desperate to score for his beloved Celt’s at Ibrox, providing of cours it is in a Celtic win.

Celtic are due a victory over Rangers but I normally refrain from betting on the outcome of these games because they are so hard to predict. I think the 9/4 on offer for an away win is too big as I strongly believe that Celtic have far more quality in their ranks, so I wouldn’t put anyone off backing them. The bet I will advise is for Keane to score at anytime. Fortune will do a lot of the ‘ugly work’ for his strike partner and Keane’s movement and quick thinking should seem him have at least a couple of good chances. He’s also scored in his last two games for Celtic so the signs are there that he is hitting top form as he get’s his sharpness.

My selection: Robbie Keane to score at anytime

Best odds available: 21/10 available with PaddyPower

KTF