Saturday’s British Betting Preview

Saturday 11^th April

English Premiership

Stoke City v Newcastle United

The proverbial relegation 6-pointer takes place tomorrow evening in front of the television cameras. In what will be Alan Shearer’s 2^nd match in charge of Newcastle, they travel to the Britannia Stadium to face Tony Pulis’ Stoke side who have been excellent at home this season.

Shearer’s first match in charge ended in disappointment with Newcastle being easily disposed of by Chelsea. It was arguably a match where anything they got, would have been a bonus, however, games are fast running out and their lack of threat would have been a worry to the caretaker manager. What would have pleased him, however, would be star man and top goalscorer, Michael Owen, completing 90 minutes and more importantly, coming through the match unscathed. It is necessity that they keep Owen fit between now and the end of the season to have any chance of beating the drop.

The home side are coming into this match on the back of a much more positive result after a vital 2-0 away victory over bottom club, West Brom. It was their first away win in the league since gaining promotion and would have been a huge relief to finally get that monkey off their back. As with the majority of clubs in the league, it has been the side’s home form that has provided them with most of their points. Their direct style of play and physical presence has basically intimidated a lot of their opponents and has meant that two more wins, will probably be enough to see them remain in the top flight for a 2^nd season.

The visitors have only managed two wins on the road all season. One of those wins was against hapless West Brom whilst the other was a victory over Portsmouth during the festive period when frankly, everyone was beating Tony Adams’ side. In their defence, they have been very rarely disgraced or hammered in their 8 away defeats. Since September, United have only lost one game on the road by more than 1 goal, a 3-0 defeat at Blackburn. On the face of it, this suggests that they are not doing much wrong; however, a defeat is a defeat at the end of the day. They seem unable to pick up points against teams with a half decent home record.

Stoke City’s home record would be impressive for most teams, let alone a team who has been fighting relegation all season long. Pulis’ team has managed 8 victories and 4 draws from a total of 15 league matches. They have defeated Aston Villa, Arsenal and Everton this season whilst their last home reverse came against Champions and league leaders, Man United, on Boxing day of last year.

Newcastle will be without several long term absentees as well as recent injury victims, Peter Lovenkrands, Jose Enrique and Steven Taylor. This sort of match is perfect for the latter of that trio. His love for the physical aspect of the game has been well documented lately so his absence is sure to be a massive blow. City will have their key players available tomorrow and their strikers, Ricardo Fuller and James Beattie, will have to perform if they are to take 3 points.

Stoke’s style of play and physical presence may be too much for Newcastle’s porous defence. With Steven Taylor missing it makes things even more difficult and I expect another home win for the Potters.

My selection: Stoke City to beat Newcastle United

Best odds available: 6/4 with Bet365

English Championship

Burnley v QPR

QPR are in disarray this week after the club’s board sacked manager, Paulo Sousa, after only 5 months in charge. Sousa has publicly stated that the sale of striker Dextor Blackstock was done behind his back and it is this claim that has saw the departure of the former Juventus midfielder.

QPR’s season is effectively over as they lie in mid-table mediocrity and have no chance of gaining a play-off spot. Burnley on the other hand, have everything to play for. The Turf Moor club have had an excellent season thus far with two superb cup runs, they also lie in 6^th position and occupy the final play-off spot.

Owen Coyle has formed a side which comprises both youth and experience which plays lovely, effective football. His side have defied a lot of the doubters who felt that their cup runs would have an adverse effect on their league position. It is testament to Coyle’s management style and enthusiasm as well as his players’ resolve that they are still in the promotion picture. They are undefeated in their last 6, winning 4 of those and have only lost two home games in all competitions since the turn of the year.

QPR were tipped as promotion favourites at the start of the season due to their wealthy owners and extravagant wage bill. Things, however, have failed to materialize due to a variety of reasons. They got rid of Ian Dowie in November to replace him with Sousa before getting rid of him this week. Their instability and constant change will not have had a positive effect on the players to say the least, whilst this latest event highlights the split between the boardroom and the pitch and suggests all is no well at Loftus Road.

QPR’s recent form is not too bad with only one defeat in their last 6. However, their last 3 away matches have resulted in 2 defeats and 1 draw. These games were also against much inferior opposition than what they’ll face tomorrow. Rangers’ away form all season has been indifferent; the London club have only won 3 on the road this term.  Burnley have an excellent record over QPR with 8 wins from their last 10 meetings with only one win for tomorrow’s visitors.

Both sides could not be further apart in terms of off the park. Whilst QPR are getting rid of their 2^nd manager, Burnley have moved quickly to snap up Owen Coyle on an improved contract which will give both he and the players a massive boost going into the final few matches of the season.

I had picked this bet out at the start of the week and although I’m always wary of backing against a team who has changed their manager, I just can’t see past a home win tomorrow.

My Selection: Burnley to beat QPR

Best odds available: 5/6 with Betfred

Good luck and Happy punting