Saturday’s British betting preview

Saturday 17^th October

English Premier League

Sunderland v Liverpool

Steve Bruce enjoyed many victories over the red half of Merseyside as captain of Manchester United so he’ll be hoping for something similar as his Sunderland side host Liverpool in an intriguing encounter.

Sunderland were a rash swing of Anton Ferdinand’s right boot of taking all three points home from Old Trafford last time out. The Mackems have had a bright start to the season in Bruce’s first season in charge and were very unlucky against Man United, a game where they took the lead twice. Due to new ownership, Sunderland invested heavily in personnel over the summer months. Their big signings included Michael Turner from Hull, Lorik Cana from Marseille and Frazier Campbell from Man United. However, it’s been another of their signings who has really grabbed the headlines – Darren Bent. The former Ipswich, Charlton and Tottenham hitman has been on fire for his new club, notching 7 goals in 8 league games. He’s scored against United and Chelsea already and has formed an interesting partnership with Kenwyne Jones. Sunderland currently sit in 8^th position with 13 points, 9 of which have been accumulated at home with their sole defeat at the Stadium of Light coming against Chelsea in August. Their points total is fully deserved although their position in the table may be false. Despite being unlucky against United, they have struggled in their more difficult matches, i.e. at home to Chelsea and away to the likes of Burnley and Stoke. Their victories have tended to come against the weaker sides on the road in the shape of Hull and Wolves whilst their sole success on their travels was against a slow starting Bolton side.

I spoke about Liverpool a fortnight or so ago and since then not much has changed. Their strengths still lie in Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres whilst their weaknesses remain at the back and in the middle of the park where they still miss Xabi Alonso. These weaknesses were exposed in their last match before the international break, away to Chelsea. Obviously a difficult place to go to but they were incredibly poor in my opinion and lacked a creative spark. Lucas continued to look out his depth in this company whilst they lacked an out and out threat from midfield as Gerrard was used in a more advanced role. Torres may also not have been a 100% fit but there’s no doubting that Chelsea deserved their victory. Thankfully for Rafa Benitez he’s not taking his side to play Chelsea on Saturday. He’ll be hoping for the same Liverpool side who ground out entertaining victories over West Ham and Bolton in their only two away victories to date. The secret to those wins? Gerrard and Torres! Both were at the forefront of these games and took them by the scruff of the neck.

Sunderland will look to keep things simple and play a 4-4-2 with Jones and Bent leading their charge upfront. The likes of Steed Malbranque and Andy Reid could prove pivotal for Bruce on Saturday, the wide players always seem to trouble Liverpool’s full backs so a lot will depend on how they do and if they are able to get crosses into the box for their strikers. Liverpool will look to their main men to get them a much needed 3 points with Torres likely to return after being absent from Spain’s side during the week, Gerrard, who also missed his country’s midweek match, is a certainty to be fit for Saturday. One player who must surely start is Yossi Benayoun. The little playmaker links midfield to forward better than anyone else at the club so a lot of Liverpool’s positive play revolves round him, if he starts Liverpool will create chances. Obviously I don’t know what Benitez is thinking with regards to team selection but I’m not taken with Sunderland just yet so I feel the 10/11 available for Liverpool is a very good value bet. Also, should Benayoun start I think his ability to arrive late in the box should give him opportunity to add to his 3 goal tally in the league this season.

My selection: Liverpool to beat Sunderland

Best odds available: 10/11 available with Bet365

Other selections: Yossi Benayoun to score anytime

Best odds available: 7/2 available with Extrabet

English Championship

Leicester City v Derby County

These sides have not met each other in over two years so the rivalry, if possible, will be even greater when Leicester City entertain Derby on Saturday in a fiery Midlands derby.

Leicester have been hard to beat on their return to England’s 2^nd tier after promotion last season. Nigel Pearson’s side have lost just twice in 11 matches, winning 4. One of the reasons they are so hard to beat is their strong defensive unit. Pearson, himself a defender at the top level, has built from the back and makes a point of having a consistent backline. This is proved by 4 of his back five (including the goalkeeper) playing in all of the clubs 11 league matches. City have conceded 11 in that time but 3 of those came in the one game against Watford away from home, more specifically, a 19 minute spell in that game. They have allowed the opposition just five goals in the same amount of matches at the Walkers Stadium. From these games, Leicester have won 3 and lost just the once, against Preston in what was their most recent home game. They have defeated Swansea, Blackpool and Barnsley who all like to get the ball played through the midfield as opposed to going long like Preston. This form has seen them rise to 7^th in the table level on points with Sheffield United.

Nigel Clough is in his first full season as Derby manager and is under no illusion as to where his side must improve – away from home. The Rams have picked up one point from a possible 15 on the road this season, losing 13 goals in the process. A couple of their defeats have came against good sides such as rivals Nottingham Forest and Cardiff City, however they’ve also lost to the weaker sides in the league such as Scunthorpe. Their solitary point came against Blackpool back in the middle of August so improvement is a must if they want to avoid a relegation battle later in the season. There’s no doubting County possess a bit of quality, Kris Commons, Rob Hulse and Miles Addison are very decent players. They do, however, look weak in the middle of the park with veteran Robbie Savage playing every match so far alongside Lee Croft and Jake Livermore. I’ve never been impressed with them at the back and their makeshift centre half partnership of Lee McEveley and Darren Leacock do not look the most commanding of duos.

 Local derbies can often be a lottery from a betting perspective but there are a lot of things in Leicester’s favour going into Saturday’s clash. Their home form has been sound whilst Derby’s away form is deplorably bad. They also have the right mix upfront to trouble and unsettle Derby’s lightweight back four. Matty Fryatt and Steve Howard have an excellent blend for the Foxes and I think their understanding will go a long way to ensuring another home win in a tight and hard fought contest.

Fryatt has scored in 3 of City’s last four home matches, nothing the first goal of the game in two of those occasions so it may be worth following him again to do likewise on Saturday.

My selections: Leicester City to beat Derby County

Best odds available: 10/11 with Ladbrokes

Other selections: Matty Fryatt to score the first goal

Best odds available: 9/2 with several bookmakers including Skybet

Good Luck and Happy Punting