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Saturday’s British betting preview (Boxing Day)

December 22nd, 2009 / callum

Saturday 26th December

English Premier League

Sunderland v Everton

David Moyes takes his Everton side, on a run of 3 successive league draws, to the Stadium of Light to take on a Sunderland side who haven’t won since their impressive victory over Arsenal back in November.

Steve Bruce’s summer arrival, alongside some big investment from a new chairman, brought increased expectation to the North-east club. Things looked to be heading in the right direction with star signing Darren Bent scoring goals aplenty, excellent results over Liverpool, Manchester United and the aforementioned Arsenal game, as well as sell-out crowds for home matches. The past month or so however, has not been as positive. They have lost four out of 5 with their only respite coming against bottom dogs Portsmouth in a 1-1 draw at home. This dip in form may have coincided with the injury to Lee Cattermole. The energetic midfielder was a key player in the early part of the season for Bruce’s side and was pivotal to their style of play, especially at home where they rely on their midfielders getting close to the opposition and stifling their creative players. He has recently returned to the starting line-up but even his inclusion on Saturday couldn’t prevent Sunderland from slipping to another defeat away to Man City. Sunderland also look to be missing Craig Gordon. The influential Scottish goalkeeper broke his arm against Spurs at White Hart Lane in November and since his absence from the side, the team has shipped 9 goals in 6 matches, keeping only one clean sheet in process.

Everton have had a poor first half to the season by their own high standards set in previous seasons. Much was  expected from Moyes side after finishing 5th last season and with the influx of players such as Johnny Heitinga, Diniyar Bilyaletdinov and Sylvain Distin. These signings were coupled with the retention of Brazilian striker Jo on loan for another season and the impending return of Yakubu from a long term injury. Despite all this, they find themselves at the wrong end of the table, a mere 3 points off 18th place. A lot of this has been down to horrendous injuries to key players which has meant that Moyes has had to chop and change for much of the season. For much of the season they lacked a creative spark in the middle of the park with both Mikel Arteta and Steven Pienaar missing most of the season. The latter is now back fit and has played in the last 3 league matches which has saw a dramatic improvement in terms of chances made and goals scored. They have managed 6 in 3 games, gaining draws in all of these matches against 3 sides in top form. Draws with Birmingham, Chelsea and Spurs may just be what they need to kick-start their season.

It could be argued that this match is destined to end in a draw as both sides have only won one game apiece in their last nine fixtures. I believe Everton are gathering a bit of momentum however and with their injuries beginning to clear and key personnel playing more regularly they are due a victory. They have had a tough run of fixtures of late yet are unbeaten in 3. An away match over the Christmas period is right up Davie Moyes’ alley. They defeated Middlesbrough last Boxing day at the Riverside and I firmly believe they are capable of returning from the North East with 3 points once again. Everton have also won on their last 4 visits to the Stadium of Light.

My selection: Everton to beat Sunderland

Best odds available: 11/5 available with Victor Chandler

 

English Championship

Sheffield Wednesday v Newcastle United (12.45)

A meeting of two sides who are experiencing completely different fortunes at this moment in time as league leaders Newcastle make a short trip to the steel city to take on beleaguered Wednesday at Hillsborough.

Sheffield Wednesday are currently in the process of looking for a new manager after sacking Brian Laws earlier this month. His removal as manager has not done much to the performances on the park as the Owl’s were comfortably beaten on Saturday by Swansea at home. There seems to be a real lack of quality at the club at the moment which is surprising considering the heroes the Wednesday fans used to have not so long ago. There doesn’t seem to be anyone willing to take responsibility on the field which is a sad indictment for such an illustrious and successful club. As well as a lack of genuine quality at the club, there is immense fear and the confidence must be at an all time low. They have not won a match since October, lost their last 6 in the league and currently sit 3rd bottom. It’s an unenviable task facing the new manager whoever it may be.

Newcastle on the other hand are absolutely flying at the minute. Chris Houghton’s men have stretched their lead to 10 points at the top of the table and are currently on a run of 9 games unbeaten, a run in which they have won 8. They are proving to be far too good for most of the other teams in the league and it may even be a record points haul if they continue in their current form. Key to their success this season has been Kevin Nolan. The former Bolton captain has been a rock in centre of midfield and has also popped up with vital goals in games which the Magpies have not been playing well. He has an influence in the team which gets the most out of players around him. He’s the clubs top scorer with 9 and has been a virtual ever present, missing just the two games all season. The midfield in general is extremely strong with Jonas Gutierrez (an Argentine regular), Alan Smith and Danny Guthrie all comfortably capable of playing in the Premier League. Upfront they are beginning to get it right as well with the return of Shola Ameobi back from injury and scoring at the weekend. His partnership with Marlon Harewood, although not the most prolific, will be troublesome for teams in the division as they never stop all game and will create plenty of space for the midfield to take advantage of.

  It’s one of these games which looks cut and dried and although football is never cut and dry, this is probably one of the closest you’ll get. I can’t see many sides stopping the Geordie Juggernaut the way they are going and I especially can’t see hapless Wednesday doing it. Newcastle are a standout 5/6 with Victor Chandler.

My selection: Newcastle to beat Sheffield Wednesday

Best odds available: 5/6 available with Victor Chandler

 

Scottish Premier League

Celtic v Hamilton

Celtic look to put the disappointment of their weekend loss to Hearts behind them when they welcome Billy Reid’s Hamilton to Parkhead on Boxing Day.

I previewed the trip to Tynecastle on my last blog so there’s nothing much new to report. Celtic still suffer from the same old failings at the back whilst they are still creating a plethora of chances at the other end but failing to take the majority of them. Another calamitous lapse in concentration from a central defender, this time Glenn Loovens, resulted in a penalty and a red card for fellow centre half, Gary Caldwell. Despite being down to 10 men for much of the game, Celtic were still way ahead in terms of quality, creating chances and playing the better football. It’s difficult to stress how far ahead they are of the likes of Hearts, Dundee United and Motherwell, especially when the results are so close and when they drop points to these teams but the crux of the matter is they are a lot, lot better than these kind of teams, well they are going forward. There is a lack of leadership at the back and players are not taking responsibility for their actions, especially at cross balls.

Hamilton never played at the weekend due to the blizzards on the West coast on Saturday so will be eager to go. They are coming into this match having won their last two and with only one defeat in their last 6 so confidence should be high. Reid has found a settled team for the first time this season in the last couple of months which has helped dramatically, especially in midfield. Captain Alex Neil has made a big difference on his return from injury whilst the two James’, MacArthur and Wesolowski have struck up a good partnership just infront him Neil.  It will come as no surprise to note that Billy Reid’s men will come to Parkhead to try and frustrate Celtic with a strict 4-5-1 formation with little adventure likely. Their plan will be to keep it tight until half time and get the home fans on their hero’s backs.

Celtic have won every meeting between these sides since Hamilton’s promotion last season. Their matches at New Douglas Park have been far closer than the ones at Parkhead. Hamilton’s last two visits to the East End of Glasgow have witnessed two comfortable 4-0 wins for the home side and I do not envisage anything different come Saturday. Celtic have created a barrow load of chances in nearly all of their matches under Mowbray and it really is a matter of time before they win by 5, 6 or 7. They are 4 points and 9 goals worse off than top of the table Rangers so know that Saturday is a perfect chance to go about mending those differences.

My selections: Celtic (-2) to beat Hamilton at a best priced 13/8 with Skybet

Celtic to win both halves at a best priced 6/4 with Skybet

Marc Antoine Fortune to score anytime and Celtic to win at a best priced 11/8 with Boylesports

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