Saturday’s British betting preview

Saturday 6^th March

English Premier League

Arsenal v Burnley

4 weeks ago there were Arsenal fans calling for their manager’s head after back to back defeats against Manchester United and Chelsea – 1 month on they go into tomorrow’s match at home to Burnley with a chance to go top of the table.

Since losing to Chelsea at the beginning of February, Arsenal have won 3 league games in a row. When you consider they were well adrift of top of the league, it doesn’t sound like the sort of form to catapult them back into the title race, yet, with both sides above them dropping crucial points of late, it has. They are 3 points behind Chelsea and two points off of 2^nd placed United. Last weekend’s victory over Stoke at the Britannia was a key win considering they have lost on their two most recent visits and also because of the horrendous injury suffered by Aaron Ramsey. The last time such an event occurred in a match involving Arsenal, they crumbled and dropped points before their whole title push caved in on them. There definitely seems to be a more steely resolve about the team from the Emirates this time around and they old saying goes that any experience is good experiences, certainly rings true here.

Burnley lost a massive game in their bid to avoid the drop last Saturday at home to Portsmouth. I foolishly tipped the Clarets to get all 3 points. What I didn’t legislate for was their captain for the day, Clarke Carlisle, giving away two penalties in absurd circumstances. Pompey may have missed the first but they capitalised on the 2^nd and as such went on to bag all 3 points. Steven Fletcher missed a big chance at 1-1 and you wonder whether their season will turn on that glaring miss. Their away form is well documented as being horrendous and easily the worst in the league so it’s hard to hold much optimism for them when they head south tomorrow. Their last 8 league games away from home have ended in defeat with an aggregate score of 24-5. All 5 of their goals in that run have come in two games, against West Ham and Aston Villa – they’ve lost 5 goals in each of these games. In total they have scored 10 goals on the road but they’ve only managed to score in 4 of their 14 away games this term which suggests they do not have enough quality in the final third when they go away. 1 point from a possible 42 is treacherous form and is basically the reason they are where they are.

I’ve never been a big fan of his, but Nicklas Bendtner has made a big difference to Arsenal since returning from injury last month. He provides a focal point up top which they’ve missed since Robin Van Persie got a serious knee injury in November. Andrei Arshavin and Eduardo have tried to fill the void but their diminutive size and qualities are best utilised elsewhere and when they have someone to feed off of. Bendtner has now notched 2 in 2 for Arsenal and also scored for Denmark during the week. He takes a lot of the battering from the opposition’s defenders allowing the likes of Arshavin, Samir Nasri, Fabregas and Theo Walcott to take advantage of the space he creates. He’ll be a massive player for the Gunners between now and May and will prove very troublesome for the Burnley defenders tomorrow.

The 1/7 generally available for an Arsenal win is measly, quite rightly, so it pays to look elsewhere for a bet in this fixture. I’ve picked out 3 which I believe to be value with the first one being Arsenal to win both halves. The home side will be determined to carry on the feel good factor after last week’s win so are sure to come out firing. They are masters at taking goals off weak defences at home and I expect nothing less tomorrow. Another bet I like is for Bendtner to score during the 90 minutes. The Dane is quick, powerful, direct and most importantly, on form. He’ll relish the chance to go up against the worst defence in the league and as he’ll play as Arsenal’s lone striker, can be expected to get more than a few opportunities tomorrow. The third and final bet I like is for the first booking of the game to come in the first 15 minutes of the match. Arsene Wenger has not stopped talking about the rough treatment giving to his players of late and the home crowd will be at the referee from the start to clamp down on anything untoward from the Burnley players. Referees tend to be a bit more lenient early on in games nowadays but I think Arsenal will come roaring out the traps and expect Burnley to be a yard short against superior quality. With that in mind, an early booking is not unthinkable.

My selections:  Arsenal to win both halves against Burnley at a best priced Evens with Paddy Power

                             Nicklas Bendtner to score at anytime at a best priced 5/4 with Bet65

The first booking of the match to come between 0-15 minutes – Best price 15/2 with William Hill

English Premier League

West Ham United v Bolton Wanderers

It’s another big clash at the bottom of the table as Owen Coyle leads his Bolton charges to London to take on West Ham at Upton Park.

I’ve made no secret of my admiration for how Gianfranco Zola set’s his side up to play so it will come as no surprise to see them previewed again. West Ham have managed to give themselves some breathing space in the battle against the drop with only 2 defeats in their last 7 league games. It’s a run which has seen them rise to 13^th but they’re still only 3 points above 18^th placed Hull City. As ever, it is likely going to be their home form which will keep them in the division if they survive. They’re undefeated in their last 5 home games with 3 wins and two draws, conceding only 1 goal during that time. They’re proving to be tough to breakdown infront of their home fans and Robert Green has been in fantastic form in goals for them – which he was rewarded for with 90 minutes for England in midweek. Matthew Upson was also playing in that match and his return from injury has coincided with the Hammers being more resolute. It’s upfront, however, where you win games and Carlton Cole’s presence has helped massively of late. He scored against Hull in the last home match and looks like being the catalyst for the rest of the season.

Bolton have improved their football considerably since Coyle took charge in January but they are still perilously close to the relegation zone. Last weekend’s win over Wolves at home was a huge relief as they had went 6 league games without even scoring. It’s obviously where their problems lie so Coyle has attempted to be more attacking in midfield to aid his non-scoring strikers. Jack Wilshere was brought in on loan from Arsenal and he’s made a difference out wide whilst he has went 4-4-2 as opposed to the bewildering formations used under previous manager Gary Megson. They look more of a threat when in possession as to only really looking like scoring from set pieces beforehand. As a result of this however it does leave them more open at the back. They’ve conceded 14 goals in 9 league games under Coyle which has to improve between now and the end of the season if they wish to remain in the Premier League.

Bolton’s record at Upton Park is not terrible with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 9 visits. It may not sound impressive but it’s a decent record for a side who have a lot more restrictions in terms of money. You just wonder where Bolton’s goals are going to come from on Saturday. Zat Knight scored their winner last weekend whilst their strikers continued to be wasteful infront of goal. West Ham will be up for the fight at set pieces and are a relatively big side with Upson, Cole, Tompkins and Mido all likely to stand up to the physical battle.

In terms of the home side, they’ll look to Cole to get the better of Knight and Sam Ricketts. Both are decent enough defenders but Cole has a point to prove in order to book his seat for South Africa. Bolton would have targeted last week’s game at home to Wolves as a must win whilst tomorrow’s is probably a must not lose for the away side. West Ham, however, know that their home form is good and also realise that a win will take them 4 points clear of tomorrow’s opponents. It’s a big incentive for Zola and his troops and one I think they’ll use to their advantage.

My selection: West Ham to beat Bolton at a best priced 5/6 available with Stan James