Saturday’s British betting preview

Saturday 17^th April

English Championship

Blackpool v Nottingham Forest

Both of these sides have aspirations of playing in the Premier League next season so there’s a lot on the line as Forest travel North to take on Blackpool at Bloomfield Road.

Ian Holloway has done a marvellous job this season to even get his side close to the play-off picture. In a league where the likes of Middlesbrough, Ipswich and Sheffield United are all behind Blackpool, it’s testament to the hard work and endeavour of one of the more colourful characters in the game. Holloway has transformed a side who were only ever hoping for a mid-table finish at best into a side who currently sit 2 points off the final play-off position with 3 games to go. Their success this season has been built on a very good home record. They have won 12 of their 21 home games, losing just 4 all season long. After a lull during January and February, they have picked up again and have went on a run of 1 defeat in 6 before last week’s defeat to Newcastle at St James’ Park – where everybody has struggled this season.

Nottingham Forest secured their play-off position last week with a comfortable win over Ipswich. Forest had a sustained challenge for automatic promotion which only petered out in the last couple of months, which can be put down to the loss of some key personnel to injury. Billy Davies will be determined to get his side back on a consistent run of good form before the play-off begins however, and after guiding Derby to the Premier League through the play-offs, as well as leading Preston to the play-off final before that, there is nobody better for the challenges which lie ahead. Forest, however, have struggled on the road of late and have not won on the road since their demolition of West Brom at the Hawthorns at the beginning of January. It’s a run of form which has seen them lose 7 and draw 1 of their last 8 on the road, scoring just 4 goals in the process.

Blackpool’s key player without a doubt has been Charlie Adam. Their skipper moved from Rangers in the summer for £500,000 and has never looked back. He has scored 15 goals from midfield and has been the catalyst for ‘Pool’s promotion bid. His form has earned him a call-up to the Scotland squad and he has been linked with a lucrative move to the Premier League in recent weeks. His future could lie in the top league with another club should Blackpool be unsuccessful in their bid to gain promotion, despite this, he will be as committed as anyone to push his side as far as they can go.

There has never been much between these sides when they play, as shown by the numerous draws in recent times (5 of the last 7 have ended in stalemates). This time around, however, a draw is not much good to the home side who need all 3 points to keep the pressure on Swansea and Leicester above them. With a play-off place assured and the likelihood it will be 3^rd place at that, I think Blackpool’s desire will be greater and can see them sneaking all 3 points.

My selection: Blackpool to beat Nottingham Forest at a best priced 6/5 with Betfred

English League 1

Gillingham v Leeds United

I think it’s always wise towards the end of the season to concentrate on matches involving teams who have something to play for and that is certainly the case for both Gillingham and Leeds.

Gillingham are still in deep trouble at the bottom end of the table where they currently lie 3 points and one place from the relegation zone, directly above Tranmere who have a game in hand as well. They are there in no small part because of their dreadful away form which reads zero wins, 6 draws and 15 defeats. It’s a shocking record which would normally see a side already relegated in most leagues. However, their home form has compensated for this somewhat as they have lost just 3 games all season at Priestfield, winning 10 and drawing the other 8. It’s the home form of a side who could be chasing promotion yet they are most definitely hampered by their inability to win away from home. Their recent home record is good as well, with 3 wins and 3 draws from their last 6.

Leeds are starting to recover from a shocking run of form which has saw them lose their lead at the top to Norwich, drop out of the automatic promotion spots for a couple of weeks, only to climb back up to 2^nd after 3 successive wins. Those run of wins were preceded by 4 straight defeats at the most crucial part of the season. Their return to form is most welcome for Simon Grayson who must have had visions of last season’s collapse at a similar stage. Their away form for much of the season has been pretty good with 11 wins and 5 draws from their 21 matches on the road thus far. They have won their last two away from home as well, against both Yeovil and Carlisle, and perhaps most encouragingly for all concerned with the club, is the fact they have created chance after chance in both these games.

Leeds have an excellent record against sides in the bottom half of the table away from home and will be looking to consolidate and continue this tomorrow. Gillingham have done reasonably well against the top sides at home, losing only to Norwich. I don’t think there is much between Leeds and Norwich when both are on form and the signs are there that Simon Grayson’s side are coming back to their best in recent games. They know they have to keep on winning with it being so tight for that 2^nd automatic promotion spot. A win tomorrow puts them within touching distance of playing in the Championship again and it’s a win I’m backing them to get.

My selection: Leeds to beat Gillingham at a best priced 5/6 available with Totesport