Spain v Netherlands betting odds

Let’s start this article with a few stats:

•    Spain have won their last three World Cup matches by a 1-0 scoreline
•    David Villa has scored the opening goal on two of those occasions, although the match against Germany saw him playing as the (less effective) front man
•    Spain have been level at half-time in these three matches before going to find a winner in the second half

Therefore, if you believe that we will see the Sunday’s World Cup final follow a similar pattern, then there are some corresponding bets that might catch the eye:

•    Spain to win in ninety minutes is 11/10 with bet365
•    Spain to be level at half-time and ahead at full-time is 4/1 with Paddy Power
•    Spain to win by a 1-0 scoreline is 11/2 with Ladbrokes
•    Spain to keep a clean sheet is 5/4 with Sporting Bet
•    Spain to ‘win to nil’ is available at odds of 21/10 with Paddy Power

While a Netherlands goal will mean the latter three bets are losing selections, we  should also bear in mind that the Dutch go into this match as outsiders and that’s because the bookmakers are not expecting them to have a lot of possession at Soccer City. Therefore, their first port of call will be to ensure they keep things tight against the European champions before looking for ways to attack.

Yes, Holland beat Brazil and some might fancy backing them at 11/4 (bet365) to beat the other team that headed the pre-tournament outright market. The Dutch have certainly had Lady Luck on their side, playing a fluid formation with Wesley Sneijder going forward! However, are the Oranje really any better than a vibrant Germany team that were clearly second best against Spain during the semi-final on Wednesday night?

The big concern for Bert van Marwijk is that his team have not kept a clean sheet in the past four matches, with the defence making sloppy mistakes to allow Cameroon, Brazil, Slovakia and Uruguay to score. Therefore, their customary defensive approach might end in tears and the manager might be looking for ways to get the supply line through to Robin Van Persie, who has been isolated for much of the campaign. The Arsenal striker is 15/2 (Blue Square) to open the scoring on the biggest stage imaginable and Spain do have a chink in the defence.

Joan Capdevila is the only player in the likely starting XI that doesn’t play for Barcelona or Real Madrid and the left-back could be targeted by the tricky Arjen Robben (10/1 Blue Square), who is the class act in the team, despite Sneijder (9/1 Paddy Power) scoring five goals during this tournament (it was actually four but FIFA have gifted him a 5th).

Therefore, can the Dutch manage a 1-0 win (15/2 bet365) of their own and claim their first ever World Cup? It’s unlikely, although their defensive tactics means that Under 2 Goals (10/11 bet365) can be backed with a fair degree of confidence considering that you will get a refund if there are exactly two goals in normal time.