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Arsenal go into their big Champions League match without captain Cesc Fabregas, as Arsene Wenger is not ready to take any risks with the influential midfielder. Fabregas was pulled out of the 3-1 win against Burnley in the Premier League on the weekend, with a hamstring problem after scoring. This is a huge blow for Arsenal, as Fabregas is one of the best players in the Premier League at the moment, and a figure in the Arsenal line up. With the Gunners having to find a way back from a 2-1 deficit from the first leg in Porto, the captain’s presence could have a huge influence on betting strategies for the game. The young Spaniard has netted 17 times this season, and with Arsenal’s strike force looking a little depleted as it is, that spark of creativity and control which Fabregas exerts, will be missing.

Wenger has been struggling with injuries to key players all season, with star striker Robin Van Persie missing from action because of an injury picked up while on international duty. They have had to cope for most of the season without him, which many thought would be the downfall of the Gunners this season. With the recent horror show of Aaron Ramsey’s injury, Wenger has every right to feel hard done by, but they keep on going, much to his credit. Despite recent back to back losses in the Premier League against Manchester United and Chelsea, somehow Wenger has driven his men into contention for the league title. Abou Diaby had the ominous task of filling the space vacated by Fabregas against Burnley, and will likely step into the fold once again. With the captain missing, Arsenal will still look to play the same way as they always do, but the Portuguese side are not to be taken too lightly, as highlighted in the first leg.

Porto are probably the most underrated team in the Champions League. Sure, they are not in one of the strongest leagues in Europe, but they do have a decent history in the Champions League, and when they are on top of their game, they have a strike force which tear defences apart. Colombian Falcao and Brazilian Hulk are a threat, and there are some doubts as to whether Arsenal’s defence will be able to contain them. While the Gunners are going well and in contention for the Premier League, it is fair to argue that they are not as strong as they have been in past season, and with injuries to boot, they are relying on depth to get them through. This is what Porto are more than capable of exposing back at the Emirates Stadium.

The Portuguese played well and showed Arsenal that they are no pushover. Despite losing twice to Chelsea in the group stages, they gave good accounts of themselves against the Blues, which showed potential for more to come. Porto can carve out great chances for themselves, and they will be a threat on Tuesday night, as they will be able to strike on the counter attack because they know that Arsenal, buoyed on by the home crowd, will be coming at them. Collectively as a team, Porto have had the most shots on goal in the Champions League so far this season, and individually, Hulk is leading the shot chart of all players in the competition. This is what Arsenal will have to try and defend against.

Arsenal’s good form at home in the Champions League is something that Porto will have to overcome. The Gunners have one of the most impressive home records in the competition, and will start as favourites to win on the night. The key will be keeping a close eye on Hulk and Falcao, because if they sneak an away goal, then that could be too big a hurdle for the Gunners to overcome. Arsenal have scored eight goals in their last three domestic matches and will be fairly confident, as it’s hard to see Arsene Wenger expecting anything other than a comfortable victory. He flies hard in the face of adversity, and more often than not finds a way to come through. This, however, without Fabregas, could be their toughest test, but they will rely on their free flowing attacking game, which has seen them lead the Premier League in goals scored, and has already led them to two home victories over Porto in Champions League history.

BETTING STATS

Lat 5 Head to Head
Porto 2, Arsenal 1
Porto 2, Arsenal 0
Arsenal 4, Porto 0
Porto 0, Arsenal 0
Arsenal 2, Porto 0

Last 5 Match Goals
Arsenal: 10 For, 4 Against (All competitions)
Porto: 8 For, 3 Against (Champions League only)

Current Form
Arsenal: W5, D1, L3 (All competitions)
Porto: W5, D0, L2 (Champions League only)

Win Percentage:
Arsenal have an 85.7 win percentage at home
Porto have a 66.7 win percentage away from home

MATCH PRICES
Arsenal to win: 4/6 at Bet365
Draw: 14/5 at Boylesports
FC Porto to win: 5/1 at BetFred

Asian Handicap Betting Advice: Arsenal will still be favourites to win this tie, even with the injuries and disruptions they have had to their season, including the recent one with Fabregas. The playing field will be fairly even though, as Porto showed against Chelsea they can be a difficult side to compete against. The longer the game goes on without a goal, the more nervy they are going to be. They probably are not going to get walked over, so edging Porto with a positive should pay off.
FC Porto +1.25 Asian Handicap: 8/13 at Paddy Power

Saturday 6^th March

English Premier League

Arsenal v Burnley

4 weeks ago there were Arsenal fans calling for their manager’s head after back to back defeats against Manchester United and Chelsea – 1 month on they go into tomorrow’s match at home to Burnley with a chance to go top of the table.

Since losing to Chelsea at the beginning of February, Arsenal have won 3 league games in a row. When you consider they were well adrift of top of the league, it doesn’t sound like the sort of form to catapult them back into the title race, yet, with both sides above them dropping crucial points of late, it has. They are 3 points behind Chelsea and two points off of 2^nd placed United. Last weekend’s victory over Stoke at the Britannia was a key win considering they have lost on their two most recent visits and also because of the horrendous injury suffered by Aaron Ramsey. The last time such an event occurred in a match involving Arsenal, they crumbled and dropped points before their whole title push caved in on them. There definitely seems to be a more steely resolve about the team from the Emirates this time around and they old saying goes that any experience is good experiences, certainly rings true here.

Burnley lost a massive game in their bid to avoid the drop last Saturday at home to Portsmouth. I foolishly tipped the Clarets to get all 3 points. What I didn’t legislate for was their captain for the day, Clarke Carlisle, giving away two penalties in absurd circumstances. Pompey may have missed the first but they capitalised on the 2^nd and as such went on to bag all 3 points. Steven Fletcher missed a big chance at 1-1 and you wonder whether their season will turn on that glaring miss. Their away form is well documented as being horrendous and easily the worst in the league so it’s hard to hold much optimism for them when they head south tomorrow. Their last 8 league games away from home have ended in defeat with an aggregate score of 24-5. All 5 of their goals in that run have come in two games, against West Ham and Aston Villa – they’ve lost 5 goals in each of these games. In total they have scored 10 goals on the road but they’ve only managed to score in 4 of their 14 away games this term which suggests they do not have enough quality in the final third when they go away. 1 point from a possible 42 is treacherous form and is basically the reason they are where they are.

I’ve never been a big fan of his, but Nicklas Bendtner has made a big difference to Arsenal since returning from injury last month. He provides a focal point up top which they’ve missed since Robin Van Persie got a serious knee injury in November. Andrei Arshavin and Eduardo have tried to fill the void but their diminutive size and qualities are best utilised elsewhere and when they have someone to feed off of. Bendtner has now notched 2 in 2 for Arsenal and also scored for Denmark during the week. He takes a lot of the battering from the opposition’s defenders allowing the likes of Arshavin, Samir Nasri, Fabregas and Theo Walcott to take advantage of the space he creates. He’ll be a massive player for the Gunners between now and May and will prove very troublesome for the Burnley defenders tomorrow.

The 1/7 generally available for an Arsenal win is measly, quite rightly, so it pays to look elsewhere for a bet in this fixture. I’ve picked out 3 which I believe to be value with the first one being Arsenal to win both halves. The home side will be determined to carry on the feel good factor after last week’s win so are sure to come out firing. They are masters at taking goals off weak defences at home and I expect nothing less tomorrow. Another bet I like is for Bendtner to score during the 90 minutes. The Dane is quick, powerful, direct and most importantly, on form. He’ll relish the chance to go up against the worst defence in the league and as he’ll play as Arsenal’s lone striker, can be expected to get more than a few opportunities tomorrow. The third and final bet I like is for the first booking of the game to come in the first 15 minutes of the match. Arsene Wenger has not stopped talking about the rough treatment giving to his players of late and the home crowd will be at the referee from the start to clamp down on anything untoward from the Burnley players. Referees tend to be a bit more lenient early on in games nowadays but I think Arsenal will come roaring out the traps and expect Burnley to be a yard short against superior quality. With that in mind, an early booking is not unthinkable.

My selections:  Arsenal to win both halves against Burnley at a best priced Evens with Paddy Power

                             Nicklas Bendtner to score at anytime at a best priced 5/4 with Bet65

The first booking of the match to come between 0-15 minutes – Best price 15/2 with William Hill

English Premier League

West Ham United v Bolton Wanderers

It’s another big clash at the bottom of the table as Owen Coyle leads his Bolton charges to London to take on West Ham at Upton Park.

I’ve made no secret of my admiration for how Gianfranco Zola set’s his side up to play so it will come as no surprise to see them previewed again. West Ham have managed to give themselves some breathing space in the battle against the drop with only 2 defeats in their last 7 league games. It’s a run which has seen them rise to 13^th but they’re still only 3 points above 18^th placed Hull City. As ever, it is likely going to be their home form which will keep them in the division if they survive. They’re undefeated in their last 5 home games with 3 wins and two draws, conceding only 1 goal during that time. They’re proving to be tough to breakdown infront of their home fans and Robert Green has been in fantastic form in goals for them – which he was rewarded for with 90 minutes for England in midweek. Matthew Upson was also playing in that match and his return from injury has coincided with the Hammers being more resolute. It’s upfront, however, where you win games and Carlton Cole’s presence has helped massively of late. He scored against Hull in the last home match and looks like being the catalyst for the rest of the season.

Bolton have improved their football considerably since Coyle took charge in January but they are still perilously close to the relegation zone. Last weekend’s win over Wolves at home was a huge relief as they had went 6 league games without even scoring. It’s obviously where their problems lie so Coyle has attempted to be more attacking in midfield to aid his non-scoring strikers. Jack Wilshere was brought in on loan from Arsenal and he’s made a difference out wide whilst he has went 4-4-2 as opposed to the bewildering formations used under previous manager Gary Megson. They look more of a threat when in possession as to only really looking like scoring from set pieces beforehand. As a result of this however it does leave them more open at the back. They’ve conceded 14 goals in 9 league games under Coyle which has to improve between now and the end of the season if they wish to remain in the Premier League.

Bolton’s record at Upton Park is not terrible with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 9 visits. It may not sound impressive but it’s a decent record for a side who have a lot more restrictions in terms of money. You just wonder where Bolton’s goals are going to come from on Saturday. Zat Knight scored their winner last weekend whilst their strikers continued to be wasteful infront of goal. West Ham will be up for the fight at set pieces and are a relatively big side with Upson, Cole, Tompkins and Mido all likely to stand up to the physical battle.

In terms of the home side, they’ll look to Cole to get the better of Knight and Sam Ricketts. Both are decent enough defenders but Cole has a point to prove in order to book his seat for South Africa. Bolton would have targeted last week’s game at home to Wolves as a must win whilst tomorrow’s is probably a must not lose for the away side. West Ham, however, know that their home form is good and also realise that a win will take them 4 points clear of tomorrow’s opponents. It’s a big incentive for Zola and his troops and one I think they’ll use to their advantage.

My selection: West Ham to beat Bolton at a best priced 5/6 available with Stan James

The influential Andrei Arshavin will miss Arsenal’s trip to Porto in the first knockout stage of the Champions League on Wednesday. This is quite a crucial blow for Gunner’s boss Arsene Wenger as he is already struggling for options up front. Arshavin is one of those stand out quality type of players, much in the mould of Carlos Tevez and Wayne Rooney. There’s a little bit of a special presence there, which comes from quality and time on the ball, as well as being able to do something a little unexpected. Arshavin picked up an injury in the important win in the Premier League over Liverpool, which helped to secure Arsenal’s current third place position. The Gunners have a comfortable ride through Champions League qualification, and they have a great history in the tournament, especially at home. If they can get at least a draw away in Porto, then they will be strong favourites to progress.

Arsenal will have seen Chelsea dispose of Porto’s challenge easily enough and while they are bold team, they don’t possess the overall quality of Arsenal. That is, if Arsenal live up to their potential. The Gunners have had two major malfunctions in the Premier League recently, losing to both Manchester United and Arsenal, which realistically would have ended their dreams of winning the league. While Porto aren’t in the same class as Chelsea or Manchester United, it should serve as a warning to Arsenal that there are tougher challenges to come if they are going to secure some silverware this season. The last time Arsenal played in Porto at the end of 2008, then lost 2-0, but have previously beat them 4-0 at the Emirates.

Porto will take heart from that result, but will need to improve from what they produced in the group stages. Their games against Chelsea were productive from a work ethic point of view, but they appeared to lack enough conviction or cutting edge to break down the Chelsea defence. Porto will be sending out a different offensive line up to what they did in the group stages, so it will be a bit of the unknown facing Arsenal’s defence. One of their most offensive weapons, Brazilian forward Hulk, is not in action after being suspended for taking part in a brawl in against Benfica. That has meant that Silvestre Varela has had a chance to shine, and could cause Arsenal all sorts of problems with his speed. Alongside Mariano Gonzalez up front, Porto do have some serious offensive threat, and with Arsenal somewhat weakened up the back, it should be a stern test for them.

Although they are lagging behind in the race for the domestic title, Porto, as seen in the past in the Champions League, can cause teams problems. They are probably a little stronger than they were in the group stages, and Arsenal need a strong performance in Porto, where the Portuguese side will fancy their chances of getting a good head  start before heading back to the Emirates. Arsenal won’t want to play catch up, and a draw would probably be quite satisfactory for Wenger.

BETTING STATS

Head to Head
Porto 2, Arsenal 0
Arsenal 4, Porto 0
Porto 0, Arsenal 0
Arsenal 2, Porto 0

Match Prices:
FC Porto to win: 17/10 at Paddy Power
Draw: 9/4 at Bet365
Arsenal to win: 15/8 at SkyBet

Asian Handicap Betting Advice: Put these two teams together on paper, and you would probably back Arsenal nine times out of ten in the contest. Arsenal are having their problems with injuries this season, but they still managed a great run of form that kept them in touch with Manchester United and Arsenal at the top of the Premier League. This one is a tough call, as Porto do have a reputation for pulling out good European nights on home turf.
Arsenal +0.5 Asian Handicap is 1/2 at Bet365

Arsenal’s Premier League title seems to have come off the rails in the very short period of three matches. After mounting an excellent charge with some great form, they hid the skids when they travelled to Villa Park for a midweek game, and could only manage a 0-0 draw. That wasn’t good enough for Arsene Wenger’s men, but it wasn’t the end of the world. The following two games however, probably were in terms of ending any hopes of winning the Premier League this season. First they crashed at home 3-1 to Manchester United, who simply outclassed them, and the subsequent defeat against Chelsea has left them trailing 7 points behind second placed Manchester United. It will be a long way back now for Wenger’s Gunners. According to Spanish media, star Midfielder Cesc Fabregas has verbally agreed to sign for Barcelona in the summer, though nothing has been confirmed by the Gunners yet.

With a war of words ensuing between Wenger and Chelsea’s Michael Ballack, who bit back against the Arsenal bosses claims that Chelsea didn’t put on a good footballing performance in their 2-0 victory over Arsenal, Wenger’s team could now be left in no man’s land. They clearly do not look good enough to keep up with the top two, but are too good to finish any lower than third. However, the picture could all change again with their midweek fixture at the Emirates against Liverpool. The Merseysiders are just five points back of Wenger’s men, and another defeat for Arsenal would put even their third place finish into some kind of jeopardy. The fixture list hasn’t been too kind to Arsenal, with a run of games back to back against the other three of the Big Four, as they are known. Wenger will need to stop the rot and get their form back, and getting three points on Wednesday, putting them 8 points ahead of the fourth placed team, would seriously hamper Liverpool’s plans of finishing in the last Champions League spot.

Liverpool have had their problems this season, and are lacking quality all over the park, but somehow they still manage to keep on picking up points. They will have been boosted by their derby day win over Everton on the weekend, and a run of games against lower opposition, has seem them climb into a surprising fourth place. For most of the season they have looked like a side which are a lot worse than a fourth place finish, but the difference this season, is that they are not comfortably back in the top four. They certainly haven’t had their own way with things, and with injuries to Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres not helping, they are more grinding out results than playing with any kind of cohesion, flair or passion.

But, credit where it is due, boss Rafa Benitez has dug really deep to get his team back into Champions League contention. There have been cries for his job, after crashing out of the FA Cup and Champions League, but he has stuck to his guns and persevered. It’s not where Liverpool want to, as fourteen points back out of first place is a monumental difference in class. Instead they find themselves leading the chasing pack for fourth spot, which includes Manchester City, Tottenham and Aston Villa. Liverpool could do themselves a huge favour by beating Arsenal, who must have their backs against the ropes right now, as the Reds will be worried about Manchester City, level on points with them, with a game in hand.

There are still clearly issues which need working out by Rafa Benitez, as highlighted in a poor 0-0 against Wolves, and the FA Cup exit to Championship side Reading. This summer could be the most important one in his Liverpool tenure, as he is going to need to sign some quality players to fill out his starting eleven. One thing they do have going for them, is their defence, which remains difficult to break down. It is going forward where they are lacking a cutting edge, looking directionless without real quality in the team. If Benitez can take the positives of the defence and build outwards for them, then that promised land of a fourth placed finish could still be achieved against the odds. It is not going to be an easy ride, but grinding out results at this point of the season, should be enough to keep the Kop happy until the summer.

BETTING STATS

Last 5 Head to Head
Liverpool 1, Arsenal 2
Arsenal 2, Liverpool 1
Liverpool 4, Arsenal 4
Arsenal 1, Liverpool 1
Liverpool 4, Arsenal 2

Last 5 Match Goals
Arsenal: 7 For, 7 Against
Liverpool: 6 For, 1 Against

Last 10 Form
Arsenal: W5, D3, L2
Liverpool: W6, D2, L2

Win Percentage
Arsenal have a 75.0 win percentage at home
Liverpool have a 33.3 win percentage away from home

Match Prices
Arsenal to win: 11/10 at Bet365
Draw: 12/5 at SkyBet
Liverpool: 3/1 at Victor Chandler

Betting Advice: Liverpool have won only 4 out of their 12 matches on the road, and Arsenal’s slick passing found a way to beat Liverpool when they met earlier this season. That should be the difference again at the Emirates. Despite their two crucial losses against Man Utd and Chelsea, Arsenal are still a good side, and have a strong home record. It will need a lot of creativity to beat Liverpool, and break them down at the back, but their passing game should be good enough. Wenger will know the importance of this game, and Arsenal need to get back on draw. Liverpool would probably be happy with a draw themselves, as it’ll show another step in the right direction. Having lost against all top three opposition already, they’d settle for an away point.
Liverpool +0.5 Asian Handicap: 5/6 at Victor Chandler

Despite having lost the England captaincy, John Terry will still have the armband when he steps out at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, in the weekend’s big Premier League match. By the time the match comes around, Chelsea would well have been knocked off the top of the league again by Manchester United, who are just two points behind them. Chelsea’s poor showing in failing to beat second from bottom Hull during midweek, means that once again they have failed to capitalise on the opportunities which Manchester United have handed them throughout the season. With Manchester United, uncharacteristically showing a lot of faults this season, Chelsea, if they had been on top of their game, should have been well clear at the top by now.

That has not happened, and now this London derby takes on extra importance, as Chelsea need to defeat one of their closest challengers. For Arsenal, they need to win to keep in touch. There is increasing pressure at the top of the Premier League now, with momentum seeming to have shifted in the favour of Alex Ferguson’s Red Devils. If Chelsea could play all of their remaining games at Stamford Bridge, then they would probably be OK, as they have only dropped two points there all season. It is on their travels they have experienced all of their problems, so boss Carlo Ancelotti will be happy to be back in the relative safety of home turf, and have his squad relatively injury free.

Ashley Cole will return to the side after a problem which kept him out of the starting line up against Hull, and the Blues are only really missing the work of Michael Essien. The other question is whether Didier Drogba hampers the game of Nicolas Anelka, who seems to go into shell playing second fiddle to Chelsea’s main man. Some good news for Chelsea, is that they have had their potential transfer ban wiped out after the issues about poaching Gael Kakuta, so they will be free to add to their squad. Back in November, Chelsea played Arsenal of the Emirates park, where they ran out comfortable 3-0 winners. Since then, Chelsea has slipped and stumbled their way along the path to their title challenge, looking out of sorts on the road. Their main problem, as highlighted by Hull, is defending set pieces. That would naturally be one area which the opposition would attack, but Arsenal are lacking something aerially, and certainly are missing a powerful forward in the mould of a Didier Drogba.

The Gunners do not have a great record against Chelsea, and Arsene Wenger’s men need to look for points. The heavy loss to Manchester United on their last outing, meant that they lost ground on second place. Another defeat could potentially open up a seven point gap. With Liverpool to come next, this has been a testing run of Arsenal’s nerve. You can usually rely on Arsenal for goals, but they have hit the back of the net only once in their last two games. They have had their striker problems, missing Robin van Persie, Nicholas Bendtner and Eduardo (who will again be missing on the weekend). They have class in the form of Andrey Arshavin and Cesc Fabregas, but as highlighted in the first meeting between the two clubs in November, that was nowhere near enough to compete with Chelsea. It wasn’t enough to live with Manchester United last weekend.

BETTING STATS (League only)

Last 5 Head to Head
Arsenal 0, Chelsea 3
Arsenal 1, Chelsea 4
Chelsea 1, Arsenal 2
Chelsea 2, Arsenal 1
Arsenal 1, Chelsea 0

Last 5 Match Goals
Chelsea: 15 For, 5 Against
Arsenal: 9 For, 7 Against

Last 10 Form
Chelsea: W5, D4, L1
Arsenal: W6, D3, L1

Win Percentage:
Chelsea have a 91.7 win percentage at home
Arsenal have a 50.0 win percentage away from home

Match Prices
Chelsea to win: 5/6 at BetFred
Draw: 13/5 at Bet365
Arsenal to win: 4/1 at Blue Square

Betting Advice: If Chelsea are on top of their passing game, then they should win this fixture, which will guarantee they remain in top spot. They are not going to get many more chances to capitalise on mistakes by Manchester United, and so they will need to iron out at issues at the back immediately. Fortunately, the way Arsenal play, it is right into the hands of the Blues. Arsenal like playing the pretty stuff, which Chelsea can more than match them at, as well as having the physical power of Drogba to mix it up. Another defeat for Arsenal would seriously put them back, but betting is leaning towards a home victory.
Chelsea to win with a clean sheet: 7/4 at Boylesports

**Victor Chandler are offering refunds on all losing first goalscorer and correct score bets placed on the Chelsea v Arsenal match, if Chelsea forward Didier Drogba finds the back of the net at any point during the game. The refund will be given as a free bet on your Victor Chandler account! They are also endorsing the value of their “Don’t Hit The Bar” promotion, which will spare some heartbreak on losing accumulators. Victor Chandler will refund any stake (up to the value of £50) placed on a five-fold or bigger accumulator, which fails by just one losing selection. This is a nice bit of coverage on football accumulators, in which selections must only be on win/draw/win markets. For new customers opening accounts to make the best of these offers, there is up to £100 worth of free bets to be had a generous welcome offer from this excellent bookmaker. Check for full details by following this link.

While it’s clear that In-Play betting is becoming increasingly popular with customers, there are still many of us that like to place antepost bets either before or during the start of the football season. While a bet on a live game is often settled within minutes, a long-term bet means that you can enjoy your wager over the course of the season, before eventually it’s settled as a winner or loser by May.

There are still several issues to be decided in the Premier League, with the winner likely to come from a select group of two teams. Despite talk of Liverpool and Manchester City mounting a challenge this term, they are 100/1 (Sporting Bet) and 33/1 (Paddy Power) respectively to finish top of the pile. In addition, many people have started to write off Arsenal (for the second time this season) after the Gunners lost 3-1 at home to Manchester United on Sunday. Arsene Wenger’s team are now out to 10/1 with Sky Bet to win their first title since 2004, although it appears that they might not have enough quality.

Which leaves us with Chelsea and Manchester United. The Blues have been trading at odds-on for most of the season and the Blues are still available at a best price 5/6 (bet365), despite drawing with Hull on Tuesday. Carlo Ancelotti’s team still have to visit Old Trafford this season, something which might convince many that the Red Devils are clearly the value bet at 6/4 (Ladbrokes). With United having an easy match against Portsmouth on Saturday and Chelsea entertaining Arsenal on Sunday, it could be all change at the top.

While only three teams can possibly win the Premier League, it’s fair to say that eleven sides could be relegated this term. Some shrewd punters were backing Portsmouth at fancy odds of 5/1 before the season started, although their financial state and bad opening results saw Pompey quickly start trading at odds-on. It seems implausible that they are going to get out of the bottom three by the end of the season, although Coral and Victor Chandler are still prepared to offer odds of 1/5.

If Avram Grant’s team are doomed, then every other team will believe that they can escape the drop. Indeed, Hull City didn’t look like a team destined for the drop when drawing with Chelsea on Tuesday and Coral have eased the Tigers to 8/11 on their relegation market. Phil Brown’s team never give up and actually have form at the KC Stadium which might allow them to survive. Burnley are the same price (8/11 bet365) to return to the Championship next term, with the Clarets sinking like a stone in previous months. You could have backed them at around 4/1 when they had a bright opening to the campaign, although they need some inspiration from somewhere.

Wolves (11/8 Ladbrokes), Bolton (7/2 William Hill), Wigan (5/1 Ladbrokes) and West Ham (6/1 Stan James) are definitely too close to the bottom of the league for comfort, with the Hammers a surprisingly big price purely because they have new owners who have drafted in Benni McCarthy and Mido. It promises to be a scrap to the death at the wrong end of the Premier League table.

Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger will probably be cursing John Terry right now. The England captain, who has seemed to have hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past couple of days, popped up with a late winner for Chelsea against Burnley in Saturday’s late kick off. Despite being the better team, Chelsea were made to work for their victory, after Burnley pounced on their only clear cut chance of the game to cancel out an opening goal by Nicolas Anelka. The 2-1 victory for Chelsea has temporarily given them a four point lead over second placed Manchester United, and a 5 points lead over Arsenal. After the Arsenal v Manchester United match on Sunday, Chelsea will still retain a game in hand over both of their nearest rivals.

Arsene Wenger is confident his side can do better than in their last showing against United. Arsenal lost 2-1 at Old Trafford at the end of August, and somewhat against the odds, they have clawed their way into a title challenge. The success of Arsenal this season has apparently surprised boss Arsene Wenger a bit too, as they have been very unlucky with the amount of injuries they have had. They had a slowish start to the season, but have since found themselves on a nice run of form in the league, ever since being outclassed by Chelsea in a 3-0 defeat at the Emirates back at the end of November. Arsene Wenger has had to cope without star striker Robin Van Persie for a large chunk of the season, as he was struck down while on International duty, and in an extremely rich vein of form.

Eduardo is also out injured, which means that Nicklas Bendtner could get a start, and he himself is only just making his way back to full duty after being out injured for a over three months. Wenger suffered another blow last week, when steady centre half Thomas Vermaelen was feared to have fractured his leg, but scans revealed that the damage was not anywhere near as bad as first assumed. Still the defender will miss the big game on Sunday. One boost in personnel that Wenger has received, is that he has gotten players back from the African Cup of Nations, meaning that Alex Song and Emmanuel Eboue should both be ready to play.

United have not been without their problems at the back, being unable to field their strongest back four for most of the season. They will have to wait a little bit longer again after Rio Ferdinand got himself a four match ban on his return to action after a long lay-off, after striking out at a Hull player in United’s 4-0 league victory. Although they are doing a lot better than when they had to put the likes of Darren Fletcher in at full back to fill a hole, there is now only John O’Shea and Ferdinand missing. Nemanja Vidic, who seems to have spent more time in the treatment room than on the pitch this season, should be fit enough to replace Ferdinand. This has been described as the biggest game of United’s season so far, by boss Ferguson.

This is one of the great rivalries of the Premier, and the start of a crucial run for Arsenal’s ambitions. They head to Stamford Bridge the following Sunday to take on London rivals Chelsea, in what could be a make or break couple of games for them. Wenger has assured the fans that Arsenal can beat Manchester United if they can play to their full potential. As so often proved in the past, Arsenal rely a lot on team spirit and cohesion to get them through, in contrast to United who solely rely on the goals of England’s Wayne Rooney to make an impact. Chelsea’s Carlo Ancelotti summed things up by saying Manchester United would have trouble mounting a title challenge if Rooney was not in the team.

It’s hard to refute that, as Rooney looks to be in the form of his life, having scored 19 of United’s 53 league goals this season. Such is the gulf of Rooney’s importance, that Berbatov is their next highest scorer with just 7, and then Valencia 5. Clearly Rooney is Ferguson’s get out of jail free card, time and time again. United need him and England need him. With United not being nearly as dominant and bursting with class as they have been in previous years, there is a lot of pressure on Rooney to keep on performing. But that also means that if the Arsenal defence, which could include Sol Campbell can mark him out of the game, then United’s path to goal will become so much harder.

United do have the upper hand in recent games against the Gunners, winning three of the last four encounters, but the Red Devils have yet to beat Arsenal in the league at the Emirates since they moved in. Despite their troubles up front, Arsenal remain the league’s top scorers and their current form has seen them go 10 matches unbeaten in the league, including wins over Manchester City and Liverpool.

BETTING STATS LEAGUE ONLY

Last 5 Head to Head
Man Utd 2, Arsenal 1
Man Utd 0, Arsenal 0
Arsenal 2, Man Utd 1
Man Utd 2, Arsenal 1
Arsenal 2, Man Utd 2

Last 5 Match Goals
Arsenal – 12 For, 5 Against
Man Utd – 16 For, 2 Against

Last 10 Form
Arsenal – W7, D3, L0
Man Utd – W7, D1, L2

Win Percentage
Arsenal have an 81.8 win percentage at home
Man Utd have a 54.5 win percentage away from home

Match Prices
Arsenal to win: 8/5 at Bet365
Draw: 12/5 at SkyBet
Manchester United to win: 15/8 at SkyBet

Arsenal v Manchester United

A massive game for both sides, Sir Alex Ferguson has stated it as "pivotal" while Wenger has placed less importance in the fixture – the mind games begin.

Arsenal will most likely be missing defender Thomas Vermaelen (5 goals,1 assist), while fellow defender Sol Campbell will probably have to pass a late fitness test prior to the match.
Gunners striker Nicklas Bendtner (1 goal,1 assist) is in line to start as Eduardo (3 goals,4 assists) is sidelined with a hamstring.
Phillippe Senderos has joined Everton on loan until the end of the season.
Other key players also sidelined include Abou Diaby (5 goals,3 assists), Djourou, Kieran Gibbs, Merida Perez (1 goal) & Robin Van Persie (7 goals,7 assists), however Alex Song (1 goal,1 assist) and Emmanuel Eboue (1 goal,2 assists) should both be available.

Man United will be missing suspended Rio Ferdinand for four matches, while Owen Hargreaves and John O`Shea (1 goal,1 assist) remain out injured.
Defender Nemanja Vidic (1 goal) provides Ferguson with a boost as he should return from injury.

Best odds for Arsenal v Man United are available at:

Arsenal – 2.60 at Bet365 or William Hill
Draw – 3.40 SkyBet
Manchester United – 2.85 Expekt

Arsenal’s recent strong run of form has seen them reach the top of the table, although the bookmakers are in little doubt as to which team are likely to finish as champions. Despite the Gunners occupying first place, firms such as Ladbrokes and bet365 are prepared to offer 3/1 about Arsene Wenger’s team winning their first title since 2004. This is despite the North London bridging a gap of eight points that existed between them and Chelsea at the end of October when the Blues won 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium.

Indeed, Carlo Ancelotti’s team are no better than 4/5 (Sky Bet) to regain top spot in the Premier League and remain there until the end of the season. Chelsea started the season in blistering fashion, although away defeats to Aston Villa to Wigan proved that this team weren’t invincible. Although they showed little sign of missing their African Nations Cup participants when beating Sunderland 7-2 last Saturday, the Blues have some tricky fixtures with Arsenal visiting Stamford Bridge on 7th February. Meanwhile, the title favourites have consecutive away trips to Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester United in April and May.

Manchester United are expected to beat Hull City on Saturday and actually leave Chelsea sitting in third place. Although the Red Devils have been wobbling in the past couple of months, it’s clear that Sir Alex Ferguson has experienced big problems with injured defenders and it will be with a sigh of relief that Rio Ferdinand will return to the back line.

With Nemanja Vidic also expected back in the team, it’s possible that the champions could enjoy a run of clean sheets that occurred last season from Boxing Day until February. Something like this would surely put them in pole position and bet365 and Sporting Bet’s 3/1 that they manage a fourth consecutive title could be the value proposition. However, there is a nagging doubt that this United team just can’t reach the same heights that they did when Cristiano Ronaldo was in the team.

Meanwhile, the race for fourth place in the Premier League is hotting up, on the basis that the above trio occupy the top three places. Many of the top bookmakers offer odds on which team will land a top four finish and Manchester City are the 6/5 favourites (Ladbrokes). Although Roberto Mancini’s team are level with Tottenham and a point better off than Liverpool (having a game in hand on both teams), their recent defeat at Everton suggested defensive concerns which could hinder their ambition.

In addition, Liverpool look like they have created a siege mentality and some might think 7/4 (bet365) is a big price about a team that feature in the top four of the Premier League so regularly. With key players to return from injury and the luck to go their way at some point, perhaps they will edge it. Then again, Tottenham could usurp both teams, with the return of Aaron Lennon clearly crucial to their hopes of making the top four. Ladbrokes make them 7/2 chances.

It seemed too good to be true on Saturday. Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea seemed like a successful treble in the making, with Burnley, Hull City and Sunderland all facing mammoth tasks to get something out of their matches. While the Black Cats found themselves trailing 4-0 at half-time to an outstanding Blues performance, the other teams did themselves enormous credit and illustrated the perils of lumping on favourites at odds-on in the Premier League.

While Manchester United were a pre-match 1/4 with bet365 against a Clarets team that have been very travel-sick this season, punters that had backed Sir Alex Ferguson’s team were made to sweat before the champions found a breakthrough just after the hour mark. While Brian Laws’ appointment has met with a negative press, he sent out an organised and determined side that created a few chances of their own. The Red Devils were 4/7 on bet365’s In-Play market before Dimitar Berbatov scored and illustrated the advantages of betting during the live action.

However, those that backed Tottenham either before or during the game had their fingers burnt, with Spurs once again failing to beat so-called lesser opposition at White Hart Lane. Punters will now be leaving Harry Redknapp out of their weekend accumulators for the rest of the season, with the bookies rubbing their hands together after offering pre-match odds of 2/7 about the home team. On another day, it could have been quite different with Hull keeper Boaz Myhill producing a goalkeeping masterclass for the Tigers, although Tottenham do seem to lack the nous to break down stubborn opposition after losing at home to Stoke and Wolves.

Chelsea proved to be the Saturday banker and are clearly the stand-out team in the Premier League right now. However, the Blues only get three points for their 7-2 mauling of Sunderland, although it clearly pays to study the line-ups before placing your bets. After all, Steve Bruce explained after the game that with Michael Turner, Anton Ferdinand and Nyron Nosworthy missing, the manager had to play midfielders in defence and that was a core explanation as to why a talented side were out of sight after just twenty minutes.

However, a victory of this nature is a rarity in the Premier League these days, with teams generally being well-organised and capable of pulling off a shock. Since the first few weeks of the season, putting the ‘top six’ sides in any kind of multiple bet is now more than a calculated risk, especially as Liverpool have failed to put together any kind of consistent run since the campaign began. At the moment, it’s far more sensible to look at single bets and perhaps the odd double, with some swotting up on likely team selections likely to yield more dividends. With Aston Villa and Arsenal likely to be well-fancied in doubles on Sunday, we shall see if blindly backing the favourites pays off or continues to be a risky business.