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Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger will probably be cursing John Terry right now. The England captain, who has seemed to have hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past couple of days, popped up with a late winner for Chelsea against Burnley in Saturday’s late kick off. Despite being the better team, Chelsea were made to work for their victory, after Burnley pounced on their only clear cut chance of the game to cancel out an opening goal by Nicolas Anelka. The 2-1 victory for Chelsea has temporarily given them a four point lead over second placed Manchester United, and a 5 points lead over Arsenal. After the Arsenal v Manchester United match on Sunday, Chelsea will still retain a game in hand over both of their nearest rivals.

Arsene Wenger is confident his side can do better than in their last showing against United. Arsenal lost 2-1 at Old Trafford at the end of August, and somewhat against the odds, they have clawed their way into a title challenge. The success of Arsenal this season has apparently surprised boss Arsene Wenger a bit too, as they have been very unlucky with the amount of injuries they have had. They had a slowish start to the season, but have since found themselves on a nice run of form in the league, ever since being outclassed by Chelsea in a 3-0 defeat at the Emirates back at the end of November. Arsene Wenger has had to cope without star striker Robin Van Persie for a large chunk of the season, as he was struck down while on International duty, and in an extremely rich vein of form.

Eduardo is also out injured, which means that Nicklas Bendtner could get a start, and he himself is only just making his way back to full duty after being out injured for a over three months. Wenger suffered another blow last week, when steady centre half Thomas Vermaelen was feared to have fractured his leg, but scans revealed that the damage was not anywhere near as bad as first assumed. Still the defender will miss the big game on Sunday. One boost in personnel that Wenger has received, is that he has gotten players back from the African Cup of Nations, meaning that Alex Song and Emmanuel Eboue should both be ready to play.

United have not been without their problems at the back, being unable to field their strongest back four for most of the season. They will have to wait a little bit longer again after Rio Ferdinand got himself a four match ban on his return to action after a long lay-off, after striking out at a Hull player in United’s 4-0 league victory. Although they are doing a lot better than when they had to put the likes of Darren Fletcher in at full back to fill a hole, there is now only John O’Shea and Ferdinand missing. Nemanja Vidic, who seems to have spent more time in the treatment room than on the pitch this season, should be fit enough to replace Ferdinand. This has been described as the biggest game of United’s season so far, by boss Ferguson.

This is one of the great rivalries of the Premier, and the start of a crucial run for Arsenal’s ambitions. They head to Stamford Bridge the following Sunday to take on London rivals Chelsea, in what could be a make or break couple of games for them. Wenger has assured the fans that Arsenal can beat Manchester United if they can play to their full potential. As so often proved in the past, Arsenal rely a lot on team spirit and cohesion to get them through, in contrast to United who solely rely on the goals of England’s Wayne Rooney to make an impact. Chelsea’s Carlo Ancelotti summed things up by saying Manchester United would have trouble mounting a title challenge if Rooney was not in the team.

It’s hard to refute that, as Rooney looks to be in the form of his life, having scored 19 of United’s 53 league goals this season. Such is the gulf of Rooney’s importance, that Berbatov is their next highest scorer with just 7, and then Valencia 5. Clearly Rooney is Ferguson’s get out of jail free card, time and time again. United need him and England need him. With United not being nearly as dominant and bursting with class as they have been in previous years, there is a lot of pressure on Rooney to keep on performing. But that also means that if the Arsenal defence, which could include Sol Campbell can mark him out of the game, then United’s path to goal will become so much harder.

United do have the upper hand in recent games against the Gunners, winning three of the last four encounters, but the Red Devils have yet to beat Arsenal in the league at the Emirates since they moved in. Despite their troubles up front, Arsenal remain the league’s top scorers and their current form has seen them go 10 matches unbeaten in the league, including wins over Manchester City and Liverpool.

BETTING STATS LEAGUE ONLY

Last 5 Head to Head
Man Utd 2, Arsenal 1
Man Utd 0, Arsenal 0
Arsenal 2, Man Utd 1
Man Utd 2, Arsenal 1
Arsenal 2, Man Utd 2

Last 5 Match Goals
Arsenal – 12 For, 5 Against
Man Utd – 16 For, 2 Against

Last 10 Form
Arsenal – W7, D3, L0
Man Utd – W7, D1, L2

Win Percentage
Arsenal have an 81.8 win percentage at home
Man Utd have a 54.5 win percentage away from home

Match Prices
Arsenal to win: 8/5 at Bet365
Draw: 12/5 at SkyBet
Manchester United to win: 15/8 at SkyBet

The snow has been falling in the UK for over a week, creating havoc up and down the country. Only two Premier League matches survived the weather on Saturday, with Arsenal managing to get their game on with Everton and Birmingham managing to successfully host champions Manchester United. Perhaps the Gunners wish they hadn’t bothered trying so hard after needing a deflected Tomas Rosicky effort to nick a draw against the Toffees. While Arsene Wenger had plenty of players out injured (not to mention Alexandre Song and Emmanuel Eboue at the African Nations Cup), it’s possible that the snow teeming down at the Emirates was a factor in David Moyes’ men nearly landing the spoils.

Similarly, at St Andrews later that day, Birmingham managed to continue their unbeaten run by drawing with Manchester United. While the Red Devils dominated possession in the first half, they only created one clear-cut chance, with their desire to pass the ball quickly suffering due to the bobbling pitch. Although the under soil surface was in operation, the grass was easily torn under the player’s studs and it undoubtedly played into the hands of the home side, who could have won the game at the death.

Last week, we saw Stoke City race into a three-goal lead at half-time in their match with Fulham, an example of a visiting team being ‘caught cold’ quite literally! There is unlikely to be another occasion where the Cottagers are 3-0 down at the break this season and much of this is surely down to the sub-zero temperatures, the break in training routines and the mental uncertainty of whether a match is likely to go ahead. It happened at Elland Road as well, where Leeds just couldn’t get going against a Wycombe team fighting for their lives at the foot of the table.

Meanwhile, up in Scotland, Glasgow Rangers somehow conspired to give away a 2-0 lead at Hamilton. The Gers conceded three goals before half-time and needed a second-half penalty to earn a replay. However, the cold weather had nothing to do with Angola surrendering a 4-0 lead against Mali to draw 4-4 in the African Nations Cup!

With the cold weather likely to stick around for the coming weekend, we should be focusing on matches like Stoke v Liverpool, Chelsea v Sunderland and Bolton v Arsenal as matches where a team at big odds-on might not be the ‘dead cert’ they were in August. It has nothing to do with some of the ‘bigger’ clubs having a wide range of nationalities within the squad (especially if some are from Russia or Scandinavia!), but more to do with how team spirit plays a bigger part in a cold climate.

It’s been a high-octane start to the Premier League, with 355 goals scored in the 117 games played to date. This means an average goal-to-game ratio of just over 3, although you can regularly find odds of 1.90 about the Over 2.5 Goals selection with bookmakers. Has there just been an initial flurry of goals at the early stage of the season which will ultimately slow down, or is there a trend emerging where the shrewd punter can capitalise before the bookmakers start to adjust their prices?

Before the Wolves v Arsenal match last Saturday, I noticed that Stan James were offering 2.75 that there were Over 3.5 Goals. However, a cursory glance at the stats illustrates that 7 of Arsenal’s 10 league games had seen four or more goals scored. While Wolves had generally been involved in lower-scoring matches, it’s worth bearing in mind that the strong favourite to win a match will ultimately have more bearing on how a game is played out. Aside from the Gunners’ 1-0 win at Fulham (a match which could have seen many goals), every other league match involving Arsene Wenger’s team have seen at least three goals scored. As we witnessed at Molineux, the visitors ran out 4-1 winners.

Indeed, there are only six teams in the English top flight who have had more games with Under 2.5 than Over 2.5. As you might expect, this includes Stoke City and Fulham, although Manchester City are something of a surprise inclusion. A closer inspection of City’s stats reveal that four of their five home matches have seen three or more goals scored, while five of their six away games have seen two or less goals scored. This suggests that Mark Hughes’ team go for the jugular at Eastlands, although play in a more conservative fashion away from home. After last Saturday’s 3-3 draw against Burnley, they might have to revise this policy although it’s interesting nonetheless.

Naturally, it helps to be armed with as many tools as possible when it comes to beating the bookie. Firms like bet365 actually provide their customers with a comprehensive stats section and we should be taking advantage of this unusual bookmaker kindness! For example, league leaders Chelsea have scored twenty-nine goals this season, but did you realise that the Blues have only managed eight of these before half-time? Carlo Ancelotti must be reasonable at giving team-talks as his team have managed more goals (9) between the 46th and 60th minute than any other team in the division.

Manchester United are associated with scoring late goals and the stats bear this out, with 8 of their 23 managed between the 76th and 90th minute. However, to say that Arsenal have been fast out of the traps in matches this term is misleading. The Gunners seemingly like to feel their way into matches, with no goals scored before the 15th minute. However, they have the highest amount (9) between 16th and 30th minute, something which is useful for In-Play betting on their matches. On the pre-match markets, bookmakers regularly offer betting on whether the goal will be scored before or after a certain minute, so with a scarcity of goalless draws this information is very useful.

Arsenal should have been sitting a lot more comfortably at the top of Group H, and would be doing so were it not for a late equaliser by Dutch Champions AZ Alkmaar on Match day three. The Dutch have a reputation for holding one of the best home records in European competition, and Arsenal looked to have broken through that barrier, but could not close out the game. Arsenal will qualify from Group H with no problem, but now they are only one point ahead of second placed Olympiacos, which will be a little disappointing to Gunners boss Arsene Wenger. Arsenal have been playing well this season, lighting up games with attacking football, and battling hard when they need to.

In the North London derby on Saturday, Arsenal trounced rivals Tottenham Hotspur 3-0, in a game which was not particularly fluent at the Emirates Stadium, but was one which will have pleased Wenger for the group spirit that his side showed. Often labelled as being a bit lightweight in physical games, the Gunners worked hard to gain the three points to put some distance between themselves and Spurs. In the Champions League, Arsenal were somewhat blessed by being drawn in one of the easiest groups going, but they have at least made it entertaining. They had to fight back from a 2-0 deficit to win on Match Day one, earned a comfortable win on Match day two, then suffered the agony of a late equaliser on Match Day three.

AZ Alkmaar boss Ronal Koeman will look forward to taking on Arsenal again as a manager, as he is on a five match unbeaten streak against them. They are a long way off the title pace in their domestic league, and they will have to travel to London without their top scorer, Mounir El Hamdaoui, who picked up an injury in a domestic cup game recently. The Dutch side aren’t in any kind of shape at the moment, with just two wins in eleven matches in all competitions. That is not the form to be taking to the Emirates, and they can be assured of a stern test in front of a passionate crowd of Gooners. Arsenal are leading the way in the stats chart, when it comes to having produced the most shots on target in the Champions League so far, so the AZ defence could have a long, busy night.

Arsenal striker Robin Van Persie can’t stop scoring at the moment, and is a vital cog in the Arsenal machine, especially while they are suffering so many injuries. In stark contrast to Liverpool, the Gunners have been coping well while some of the star players have been missing, with Wenger not afraid to give his youngsters a chance. When you have the class of player in your youth system which Arsenal have, then it’s easy to see why, and it is something which the club prides itself on. With an absentee list which includes Clichy, Eduardo, Denilson, Rosicky, Walcott, Wilshere, Fabianski, Bendtner and more, Arsenal are still producing and are chasing Champions League success as well as pushing Manchester United and Chelsea hard in the Premier League.

Arsenal to win: 1/5 at Stan James
Draw: 6/1 at Bet365
AZ Alkmaar to win: 16/1 at Paddy Power

Betting Advice: When it comes to Arsenal playing at home, you are usually guaranteed a banker. They have won all of their league games there so far this season, and they boast an rich history of success at home in the Champions League, where only Manchester United have actually managed to win in recent years. Their defence may not be the strongest, but they can usually outscore teams with relative ease, can the Gunners. AZ Alkmaar on the other hand have been a bit of a disappointment as one of the new faces in the Champions League. They have picked up two draws and loss, with only two goals to their name. That’s in contrast to Arsenal’s six goals and seven points.
Arsenal to win 2-0: 11/2 at BetFred

Arsenal will look to maintain their winning run in this year’s Champions League, as they head to AZ Akmaar, who haven’t quite lived up to their hype. The Gunners top Group 6, and their 2-0 win over Olympiakos on Match Day Two, was a comfortable contrast to the struggle they had to overturn a 2-0 deficit against Standard Liege in their first match. It was more of the Arsenal we have come to expect, and the Dutch Champions Alkmaar who were full of promise heading into their first Champions League campaign, have yet to secure a win. They do look a confident side, and it is not often that they get badly breached, but as we know, all teams have their off days.

Bad news for Arsenal and England, is that striker Theo Walcott will be missing again through injury. The youngster had only just returned to the set up after a long absence, and now new knee ligament damage will likely keep him out of action again for another month. That is a big blow to the future international star, but it is probably better that it happens now as opposed to just before the World Cup next year. At least he has time to heal again and still get a good three quarters of a season under his belt. The youngster has a lot of potential and future promise, and Arsene Wenger recognises that Walcott is an integral part of England and Arsenal’s future success.

It does kind of point to a growing list of crocked Gunners, as Denilson, Tomas Rosicky, Lukasz Fabianski, Nicklas Bendtner, Eduardo da Silva and Johan Djourou are all still out of action. Still Arsenal will be fuelled by their Premier League position, and they are still a class above most. AZ Alkmaar were a surprise entity going into the Champions League, with a strong home record, but have only managed a draw and a defeat so far. Another defeat here would seriously dent their chances of making it out of the Group. Alkmaar, with legend Ronald Koeman at the helm have only won two games in total out their eight played in all compeitions so far, and now they have to come up against Arsenal, who have the most shots on target in the Champions League so far.

On the domestic scene, that is something which has been accented, as Arsenal have rediscovered their heavy scoring touch with 9 goals in their last two Premier League games. Their most recent was a 3-1 victory over Birmingham on Saturday, which lifted the Gunners into fourth place, just four points off the top, and with the best goal difference in the league. That will please boss Arsene Wenger, and a third win out of three on Tuesday night will keep the train running.

Alkmaar to win: 6/1 at Boylesports
Draw: 3/1 at Bet365
Arsenal to win: 8/15 at Totesport

Betting Advice: Alkmaar have one of the best home records when it comes to European competition, but many will argue that is because they have contested much at the top level of European competition. The Champions League is proving difficult stomping ground for them, and their previous game, a 1-1 tie with Standard Liege, has left them bottom of the group. Arsenal in contrast are easily the best team in Group H, and while their last away trip in the Champions League went a bit awry early on, they still had the class to run out as winners. It is hard to see any other outcome here than an Arsenal win, giving Arsene Wenger a nice 60th birthday present.
Arsenal -2 Asian Handicap: 11/4 at Bet365