Blue Square

The Tour Championship at the East Lake Club in Atlanta, Georgia is just about the last big tournament on the US PGA Tour this year and the final play-off for the FedEx Cup. By definition, it features the most consistent players in North America this year. Tiger Woods has won it twice, as has Phil Mickelson, most recently in 2009 when beating Woods by three strokes. Sadly there wil be no Tiger this year, but Big Phil can be backed at 25/1 with Blue Square and 888sport and last year’s runner-up, Luke Donald, is sure to be popular.

Donald is still world number one and likely to remain so whatever happens in Atlanta this week. The 33-year-old Englishman is a general 7/1 to go one better than 12 months ago and remains in terrific form, even though tournament success had eluded him since winning the Accenture World Matchplay in February. He’s finished third in the Deutsche Bank Championship and fourth in the BMW Championship already this month and undoubtedly deserves his place at the head of the ante-post market. With only 29 rivals, those odds are certainly attractive.

Only those filling the top 30 places in the FedEx Cup points table are entitled to compete in the Tour Championship, which means last year’s winner and two-times runner-up Jim Furyk misses out along with 2008 winner Camilo Villegas. Webb Simpson, easily the most improved golfer on the US Tour this year takes part, however, as he currently leads the points table ahead of Dustin Johnson with England’s Justin Rose moving into third place with last week’s sensational victory in the BMW Championship. Simpson also head the US PGA Tour money list and can be backed at a general 12/1 at East Lake, while world number five Johnson is 20/1 with Skybet and sportingbet and Rose 22/1 with bet365.

Nick Watney, third in the US money list, is definitely worth a second look at Paddy Power‘s 18/1 as he’s already won twice on the Tour this year and was fourth in the Players Championship, while Charles Howell III looks overpriced at the general 45/1 further down the lists. Howell, a native of Atlanta, probably knows this course better than anyone playing this year and has had a decent 2011, despite failing to record a tournament sucess. He’s only missed the cut in four of his 27 tournament starts in the States this year and has twice finished runner-up in this event. This event has a very open look about it and he appeals as the each-way value.

But for the toss of a coin, the Ladbrokes St Leger could easily have been known as the Rockingham. Which, incidentally, is the name of a hotel just a mile down the road from Doncaster racecourse, though I doubt a name change would have made much difference to the history of the world’s oldest classic, which has been on the go since 1776. Nine runners are due to face the starter this year, including dual classic-winning filly Blue Bunting who competes against the colts for the first time in her career. Already sucessful in the Irish Oaks and the English 1000 Guineas, she has pacemakers Rumh (another filly) and Genius Beast to help her out on Town Moor and deserves respect  as it was her proven stamina that saw her get the better of Vita Nova in the Yorkshire Oaks last month. Dettori’s mount is a 4/1 chance with Paddy Power and Victor Chandler.

Impressive though Blue Bunting‘s credentials are, however, the one to beat may well be Sea Moon. Despite only going into the Great Voltiguer at York off the back of wins in a maiden and a handicap, Sir Michael Stoute‘s colt blew away opposition which included Irish Derby runner-up Seville, who re-opposes at Doncaster, and today’s rival Genius Beast. There is almost certainly more to come from one so lightly-raced  and, at 13/8 with Blue Square, sportingbet and 888sport, he will attract a few big punters. Being closely related to previous St Leger winner Brian Boru and out of a mare that won the Park Hill, it’s hard to see him having problems with the longer trip.  Masked Marvel kept on dourly to beat Census over 1m5f at Newmarket in July, though only a head separated the pair at the line, and can be backed at a general 8/1 for last year’s successful trainer/jockey combination. But the runner-up may well have got up at HQ had he not strayed off a true line and Richard Hannon’s colt has since beaten Brown Panther and Buthelezi in the 1m5f Geoffrey Freer at Newbury, reversing Ascot running with the former who would probably prefer a softer surface.

Census (a general 5/1) is clearly very tough and is likely to make Sea Moon work a deal harder that he did at York but Olivier Peslier is still fancied to get his mount home in front.

The NFL owners have got their way over a new financial package and the new season will get under way this week. The New England Patriots are marginal favourites to land the SuperBowl in January at a best 13/2 with bwin, ahead of defending NFL champions the Green Bay Packers (7/1 general).

The Patriots undoubtedly have the most streamlined offense in the NFL and their defensive record will improve this year if Leigh Bodden stays fit to bolster the right side. They are unlikely to be far away again and look a stand-out for the AFC Championship at Blue Square and 888sport‘s 10/3. The only fly in the ointment would appear to be the Baltimore Ravens, whose apparent decision to dispense with veterans like Todd Heap and Derrick Mason, who have served them so well in recent years, and turn to youth will either make or break the franchise. Much will depend on the emergence of Ed Dickson but the Ravens will almost certainly win more than they lose this year and can be backed at 17/2 on betfair to thwart the Patriots in the AFC and 18/1 with Stan James to win SuperBowl.

Turning to the Packers, who are a general 7/2 to win the NFC Championship. Of course, if they can maintain the same intensity as last year then there’s no reason why their won’t be another SuperBowl title winging its way back to Lambeau Field in January. Aaron Rodgers will again be the focus of media attention this year and many pundits are predicting he and his young team can scale even greater heights in the years ahead. But how many times have quarterbacks been promoted to legend status on the back of one brilliant season only to fall flat on their face the next? So comfortable was it for the Packers last season that there is almost certain to be complacency in some quarters this time around and, though much was made of their extensive injury list at the back-end of last year, few of those missing could be regarded as regular starters. I’d be a little bit wary of backing them at restrictive odds until seeing evidence that they were in the right frame of mind.

If I was a having a bet, therefore, I’d be looking at the Philadelphia Eagles. I really like the way they’ve restructured since last season and the hiring of ex-Colts offensive line coach Howard Mudd could be a master stroke. If former bad boy Michael Vick can stay match-fit, the Eagles could make serious inroads this season and make plenty of appeal at 9/2 with Stan James to oust the Packers and win the NFC. They are 9/1 with the same firm to win SuperBowl, which is just too big if most of owner Jeffrey Lurie‘s gambles pay off. Even if quarterback Vick misses a few games, the Eagles have an excellent back-up in Vince Young and it shouldn’t be forgotten that they had the third-best scoring record in the NFL last year and second in yardage gained. Nnamdi Asomugha and Jason Babin will add further steel to their defense this season and the Eagles may well to be the team to beat in 2011.

It’s something of a surprise that New Zealand haven’t won a World Cup since the inaugural tourament on home soil in 1987. Of course, there was their controversial defeat by South Africa in 1995 and but otherwise they’ve never got beyond the semi-finals. Considering the huge talent they’ve had at their disposal down the years, their record is not a great one when it comes to the Webb Ellis Trophy therefore, though that hasn’t prevented the bookmakers as marking them up as odds-on favourites (4/6 with Blue Square, sportingbet and 888sport) to put that right in front of their own fans this year.

Away from rugby New Zealand, in general, hasn’t had a great time of it over the last couple of years. Earthquakes have struck Canterbury and Christchurch, killing 76 people, while in all the publicity surrounding the successful rescue of the Chilean miners it shouldn’t be forgotten that an explosion in a mine in Pike River killed 29 men. New Zealanders are almost demanding that the All Blacks are crowned world champions to unite the nation again. But, despite what layers think, Graham Henry‘s team aren’t invincible though they have won two Tri Nations titles and completed two Grand Slam tours of the northern hemisphere since the last World Cup.

If the four seeded teams win their groups as expected, the All Blacks will face either Argentina or Scotland in the quarter-finals but old nemesis South Africa will probably await them in the semi-finals and, given their World Cup record against the All Blacks, that may be the hosts’ defining moment.  South Africa were thrashed by New Zealand in the Tri Nations in Wellington earlier this year but were forced to field a severely weakened line-up in that game and won the reverse fixture in Port Elizabeth when the All Blacks were without the influential Dan Carter. The Springboks are a general 8/1 and make more appeal than Australia (a general 7/2) at the odds. The Wallabies rely heavily on New Zealand-born fly-half Quade Cooper but if his flair is nullified they can struggle against the better teams.

France have been the best-backed of the northern hemisphere teams and are a general 16/1. But, for all their Gallic flair, they haven’t got beyond the semi-finals since 1987 and are always vulnerable under pressure. England, however, make some appeal at 18/1 with Boylesports and sportingbet. They will likely meet the French in the quarter-finals if they manage to see off Argentina and Scotland in the group stages and have a good record in the tournament, winning in Australia in 2003 and reaching the final in both 1991 and four years ago. The sudden-death format seems to suit the English psyche and they are a tighter unit nowadays under Martin Johnson, their only recent blip being a defeat in Wales where they should have been out of sight before half-time. The Six Nations champions, they have potential match-winners in Chris Ashton and Ben Foden and a solid platform on which to build among the forwards. They could go a long way, though fans will have to endure a few early mornings and have some excuses made up for the boss as most games will kick off at breakfast time in the northern hemisphere and South Africa.

I suspect the last thing India‘s cricketers wanted after their Test whitewash was a 20/20 clash with protagonists England and a five-game ODI series. India, of course, are the reigning world champions in the 50-over format and their supporters will view the ODIs as an opportunity to salvage some pride from what has been a disastrous tour. But whether the Indian players will be looking forward to the one-dayers with quite as much relish must be debatable.

Mahendra Singh Dhoni and his team look physically and mentally exhausted and their depleted squad has been weakened even further since the Test series, with Gautam Ghambir sent home still suffering from the after-effects of concussion. That heaps an enormous amount of pressure on veterans Rahul Dravid and Sachin Tendulkar to make runs with Virender Sehwag and Yuvraj Singh already ruled out. Dravid is general 4/1 to be India‘s top scorer in the ODIs , with Tendulkar a best 11/4 with Victor Chandler and it really is difficult to look beyond those two if the world champiopns are to be competitive. Dhoni amassed a few runs in the Test series when deciding to throw the bat and is 12/1 with Paddy Power to accumulate most runs but his team must know they face an uphill task to win the series at 11/10 with Blue Square, Stan James and 888sport with the onset of autumn and the resultant moisture in the air likely to suit England‘s swing bowlers much more than the Indian spinners.

England are 10/11 to win the ODI series, which starts this Saturday, with Skybet and Victor Chandler and are an attractive general 9/2 for a 4-1 correct score against their dispirited opponents. It shouldn’t be forgotten, a tired England forced a tie with India in the World Cup on the sub-continent earlier this year and were in pole position to chase down a huge Indian total until a late batting collapse. It’s unlikely the tourists’ weak attack has been causing too many sleepless nights for Alistair Cook and his team and, even without the rested Kevin Pietersen, England should have too many guns for an Indian side that is a shadow of its former self.  Cook, Johnathan Trott and Ian Bell are all class acts near the top of the order and the last-named could be a decent bet to be England‘s top scorer at 6/1 with Victor Chandler as he has been in terrific form in all formats of the game this year. Eoin Morgan is capable of taking a game away from opponents on his own and can be backed at a general 9/2, while Craig Kieswetter‘s confidence will have been boosted by his inclusion in the team ahead of in-form Matt Prior and he is also 9/2 (Betfred, Paddy Power and Stan James) to reward that faith with a best series total.

Normally, you’d expect some sort of a reaction after a team had just been deposed as the best in the world. But, quite frankly, I can’t see a way for India to gain any kind of consolation in the final Test of their series against England. Lack of preparation, too much emphasis on one-day cricket, injuries and fatigue. All have been blamed on India‘s demotion in favour of their opponents at the top of the international test rankings. But I think you can add disinterest and lack of heart to that list. I made the cardinal sin of forecasting that the weather and the class of the Indian batsmen would contrive to thwart England at Edgbaston. I really should have known better! You can’t trust the English weather nor weather forecasters and the less said of the performance and attitude of supposed top-class players like Virender Sehwag, the better. It says plenty that India’s best player by far in this series has been medium-pace bowler Praveen Kumar, who has at least shown the stomach for a battle with both ball and bat. But he’s been badly let down by more exalted and experienced team-mates. India’s much-vaunted top six have simply crumbled in the face of England‘s pace attack and, though captain Mahendra Singh Dhoni insists there is not yet a need to panic, I’d strongly disagree. Sachin Tendulkar is still a class act but not the player of old on this summer’s evidence. Neither Sehwag nor Gautan Gambhir seem able to cope with top-class swing bowling and the years appearing to have worn down Raul Dravid traditional resilience. The Indians just have no middle order and there are likely to be few takers of the 6/1 available for a tourists’ victory in the Fourth Test with Blue Square, 888sportand William Hill. England are a best 6/4 with bet3 65, while the draw is 7/5 with bwin but I’d rather concentrate on some of the other markets surrounding the match. There is still a slight doubt about the fitness of Jimmy Anderson but England have shown they can cope easily when losing first-choice bowlers in the short term. Graham Onions is standing by to make his return to the test arena and will make a good foil for Stuart Broad and Tim Bresnan if selected. There may also be a change in England‘s batting line-up with Johnathan Trott likely to come straight back in after missing out at Edgbaston, replacing the unlucky Ravi Bopara. Trott is 4/1 with Skybet to be England’s leading run-maker at the Brit Oval but Alastair Cook heads the betting at a general 7/2 following his magnificent double century in Birmingham. Eoin Morgan, who also scored a century, is a general 8/1 with captain Andrew Strauss at 9/2 with totesport.

The Group 3 Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock is never less than competitive and this year’s renewal is no exception. The eight runners have won more than £750,000 in prize money between them but only two of the field have so far won at this level. Elusive Pimpernel, a general 14/1 is one, but there are several question marks hanging over John Dunlop‘s colt at present. Having missed much of last season after finishing fifth in the 2000 Guineas, he’s been well beaten in three runs this year and has plenty to find with Hot Prospect on their run together behind Dux Scholar at Newbury last month. The other previous Group 3 winner is Simon De Montfort, but how fit will Mahmood Al Zarooni‘s colt be on his first start since finishing tailed off in a Group 2 at Meydan in March? Simon De Montfort will enjoy the ground, however, and a general 5/1 suggests he probably won’t fail through lack of fitness.

Hot Prospect is certainly interesting here, having made a pleasing reappearance at Newbury. A 4/1 chance with Coral, there’s a good chance Roger Varian‘s charge will get the strong pace he requires at Haydock but he continues to give the impression he’ll eventually be suited by a step up to 1m4f and his stable is going through a bit of a quiet spell at the moment. Class Is Class was giving 8lb to Hot Prospect when behind that rival at Windsor a year ago but the pair compete off level weights now and there should be little between them today. Sir Michael Stoute‘s gelding (9/2 with bet365, Blue Square and 888sport) finished ahead of Fallen Idol (a general 12/1) when runner-up to Poet on soft ground in this race 12 months ago and looks sure to give another good account of himself but could feasibly find one too good again in the shape of Sajjhaa.

Godolphin‘s decision to keep the King’s Best filly in training as a four-year-old has already paid dividends as she chased home the top-class Midday in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes and finished fourth in the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot before comfortably beating today’s rival Myplacelater (11/1 with Boylesports, Coral and Stan James here) in a Listed race at York last month.That success proved that 1m2f is her best trip nowadays and she’s already shown she handles rain-softened ground. Sajjhaa ticks all the boxes in this and can justify odds of 7/2 at Boylesports and William Hill.

Money, it appears, is no object to Leicester City who have been on a spending spree all summer long as they attempt to regain their top-flight status. To most Foxes’ fans, Sven-Goran Eriksson‘s multi-million pound plunges into the transfer market represent exciting times and there is no doubt that the quality offered by the likes of David Nugent, John Pantsil, Matt Mills and Paul Knochesky should put City right in the promotion firing line. But a minority may remember what happened the last time the club’s owners went for broke and paid a heavy price with administration and relegation to League One. The bookmakers are convinced Eriksson will steer Leicester to the Premier League this season, however, and William Hill have them as 5/1 joint favourites with newly relegated West Ham, who have so far managed to hang on to England internationals Rob Green, Scott Parker and Carlton Cole though the transfer window remains open until the end of the month.

Apart from Reading and Bristol City (20/1 and 80/1 respectively with bet365), William Hill are offering the best odds on all the Championship clubs in the outright title betting with the 18/1 quote about Middlesbrough likely to have plenty of takers, though losing Leroy Lita just before the start of the season has been a blow. For those looking to give themselves a few more options, the Championship Promotion Betting could be the way to go. Norwich gained back-to-back promotions last season and both Brighton and Southampton begin life in the second tier with considerable optimism. Both south coast clubs have a big fan base and it would be no surprise to see either justify general odds of 6/1 and 11/2 respectively, but Leeds may suffer from second-season syndrome and may be worth opposing at the general 6/1 while Blackpool may struggle without Charlie Adam and DJ Campbell and the general 13/2 about the Tangerines bouncing straight back to the Premier League looks a little short.

 If the battle at the top is likely to be intense, the fight for survival looks like being equally as fraught. Barnsley, 19/10 for the drop with Skybet, and Doncaster, 9/4 with Victor Chandler, are widely expected to struggle but both clubs have made some astute signings over the summer and I think the South Yorkshire neighbours will probably do enough to stay up. I’m not sure whether cash-strapped Coventry, who have lost key players and start with an inexperienced manager, will be as lucky, however, and the Sky Blues can be backed at 2/1 for relegation with bet365, Blue Square and 888sport. Peterborough could again find the Championship a step too far and they should also be backed for an immediate return to League One at the general 5/2, while sportingbet will give you 11/4 that Watford fail to overcome the loss of top scorer Danny Graham and manager Malky Mackay.

• Leicester to win Championship at 5/1 (William Hill)
• Southampton to win Promotion at 11/2 (General)
• Coventry to be relegated at 2/1 (bet365, Blue Square & 888sport)
• Peterborough to be relegated at 5/2 (General)
• Watford to be relegated at 11/4 (sportingbet)

I always look forward to the Darley July Cup, which is staged this weekend at Newmarket. It’s a fascinating clash of established sprinters and up-and-coming three-year-olds who have generally been holding their own in smart company. Many of the latter category have usually been racing over further and it’s up to punters to decide whether the drop in distance will suit.

That’s certainly the case with Dream Ahead, who was a cracking two-year-old and won three times over 6f before finding the mightly Frankel too good over an extra furlong in the Dewhurst. His comeback was delayed until Royal Ascot but David Simcock‘s colt delighted connections with his run in the St James’s Palace Stakes over a mile, again behind Sir Henry Cecil‘s superstar, and that should have put him right for this. At 9/1 with Skybet, Victor Chandler and William Hill, I certainly wouldn’t be putting anyone off backing Dream Ahead, who may well have been good enough to win a 2000 Guineas in most years, but I suspect the ground may be a little faster than ideal, despite the rain falling around Newmarket at the moment. For that reason, I’m going to side with another three-year-old in the shape of Elzaam.  

Roger Varian is already forging a reputation as an astute handler and it didn’t take him long this season to work out the best trip of his Australian-bred colt. Elzaam finished just behind Monsieur Chevalier (12/1 with Ladbrokes) and Star Witness (7/1 with the same firm) when fourth to Society Rock in the Golden Jubilee at Ascot but the bare facts don’t tell the whole story of the race. The three-year-old forfeited ground at the start when switched to the favoured far side of the track and was then forced to change course again from halfway as weakening front-runners starting falling back through the field. But he made rapid headway once Richard Hills got him on an even keel and was only beaten two lengths at the post. This is likely to be just as rough but hopefully there is enough space on the July course for Elzaam to get a clear run and he should again beat Bated Breath, Amico Fritz, Dalghar, Genki, Hitchens and Jimmy Styles and is fairly priced at 7/1 with Paddy Power.

One horse who won’t want the rain to have any impact is Delegator, who was withdrawn from the Golden Jubilee because of the softer ground. Godolphin‘s five-year-old has bags of class and showed terrific speed to beat the frustrating Regal Parade in the Duke Of York Stakes on his reappearance in May. But he must have fast going to produce his best and, as Blue Square‘s 4/1 quote testifies, he isn’t certain to get that at Newmarket. War Artist is now trained in Germany by Markus Klug and still capable of a bold showing in this grade. He’s a working man’s price at 20/1 with Paddy Power and Victor Chandler but Elzaam can carry off the spoils.

• Elzaam to win July Cup @ 7/1 with Paddy Power
• Dream Ahead @ 9/1 with Skybet, Victor Chandler and William Hill
• War Artist (EW) @ 20/1 with Paddy Power and Victor Chandler

Boxing Preview – Hamburg battle unlikely to go the distance

David Haye looks like he’s won the war of words with Wladimir Klitschko ahead of their world heavyweight unification fight in Hamburg this Saturday – but has the Lambeth-born WBA champion simply lit the blue touch paper that will inspire the Ukrainian to successfully defend his IBF and WBO titles? Klitschko is a best 8/13 with Coral, Skybet and totesport to come out on top at the Imtech Arena and only 11/8 with Blue Square and 888sport to end ‘The Hayemaker’s’ challenge inside the distance. He’s no doubt been studying how the likes of Carl Thompson, Lolenga Mock, Jean-Marc Momeck and Monte Barrett managed to put the Briton on the floor earlier in his career but will not be able to ignore Haye‘s ability to stop his opponents with one punch, and Klitschko has his own demons to conquer in that area.

Klitschko won the Olympic Super Heavyweight gold medal for the Ukraine in 1996 and has only lost three of 58 fights as a professional. The 6ft 5in, 35-year-old has won the last two defences of his titles, against Eddie Chambers and Samuel Peter, by knockouts. But earlier defeats against Corrie Sanders and Lamon Brewster prove he can be hurt by big-punchers and Haye certainly falls into that category.

Haye is normally a fast-starter, whereas Klitschko can take time to warm to his task so the early rounds may well be the Briton’s best chance of fulfilling his ambition to become undisputed world heavweight champion. Haye is 11/5 with Bet365 to stop his opponent and 10/1 with sportingbet to win on points. The latter looks an unlikely scenario, however, with the German judges unlikely to be impressed if Haye decides to keep his bigger and heavier rival on the move in the closing rounds.

This really does have the makings of a classic. Haye has dubbed his opponent a ‘robot’ and Klitschko has been incensed at the Englishman’s lack of respect. The heavier, more experienced Klitschko will rely on his reach advantage and trusted jab to open up Haye‘s defences and he has the power to follow up. But will the Ukrainian to be able to keep clear of the smaller but much more mobile Haye, who has the punch of a top-class heavyweight but still has the speed of a former cruiserweight world champion.

Logic suggests Klitschko will end it inside the distance but the fact that both men are suspect to the big punch suggests a saver on a Haye win by the same method is a sensible back-up as history suggest the Briton is far more likely to recover from a knock down than Klitschko. William Hill will lay you 7/2 that both men end up on the canvas at some point.

• Klitschko to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification 11/8 (Blue Square & 888sport)
• Haye to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification 11/5 (Bet365)
• Both Fighters to be Knocked Down 7/2 ( William Hill)

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