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It’s been a high-octane start to the Premier League, with 355 goals scored in the 117 games played to date. This means an average goal-to-game ratio of just over 3, although you can regularly find odds of 1.90 about the Over 2.5 Goals selection with bookmakers. Has there just been an initial flurry of goals at the early stage of the season which will ultimately slow down, or is there a trend emerging where the shrewd punter can capitalise before the bookmakers start to adjust their prices?

Before the Wolves v Arsenal match last Saturday, I noticed that Stan James were offering 2.75 that there were Over 3.5 Goals. However, a cursory glance at the stats illustrates that 7 of Arsenal’s 10 league games had seen four or more goals scored. While Wolves had generally been involved in lower-scoring matches, it’s worth bearing in mind that the strong favourite to win a match will ultimately have more bearing on how a game is played out. Aside from the Gunners’ 1-0 win at Fulham (a match which could have seen many goals), every other league match involving Arsene Wenger’s team have seen at least three goals scored. As we witnessed at Molineux, the visitors ran out 4-1 winners.

Indeed, there are only six teams in the English top flight who have had more games with Under 2.5 than Over 2.5. As you might expect, this includes Stoke City and Fulham, although Manchester City are something of a surprise inclusion. A closer inspection of City’s stats reveal that four of their five home matches have seen three or more goals scored, while five of their six away games have seen two or less goals scored. This suggests that Mark Hughes’ team go for the jugular at Eastlands, although play in a more conservative fashion away from home. After last Saturday’s 3-3 draw against Burnley, they might have to revise this policy although it’s interesting nonetheless.

Naturally, it helps to be armed with as many tools as possible when it comes to beating the bookie. Firms like bet365 actually provide their customers with a comprehensive stats section and we should be taking advantage of this unusual bookmaker kindness! For example, league leaders Chelsea have scored twenty-nine goals this season, but did you realise that the Blues have only managed eight of these before half-time? Carlo Ancelotti must be reasonable at giving team-talks as his team have managed more goals (9) between the 46th and 60th minute than any other team in the division.

Manchester United are associated with scoring late goals and the stats bear this out, with 8 of their 23 managed between the 76th and 90th minute. However, to say that Arsenal have been fast out of the traps in matches this term is misleading. The Gunners seemingly like to feel their way into matches, with no goals scored before the 15th minute. However, they have the highest amount (9) between 16th and 30th minute, something which is useful for In-Play betting on their matches. On the pre-match markets, bookmakers regularly offer betting on whether the goal will be scored before or after a certain minute, so with a scarcity of goalless draws this information is very useful.

Both sides won their Premier League fixtures on the weekend, but in very different styles. The Blues were wholly dominant in their 5-0 win over Blackburn at Stamford Bridge, while Bolton needed a late winner to beat Everton 3-2 at home. The big victory for Chelsea came after a 4-0 beating of Atletico Madrid at the Bridge during midweek, and both games will have lifted some concerns over two away defeats that Chelsea had suffered in the league. The game against Blackburn was their most impressive attacking display of the season, and they will be cheered even more to see Frank Lampard getting in amongst the goals again. Chelsea seemed to have let go of some reservations over the past couple of games, perhaps the disappointing away defeats having done some good in terms of showing them exactly how they need to perform week-in week-out.

Under Jose Mourinho, Chelsea would attack all competitions with their full squad, and the Carling Cup was no exception. New boss Carlo Ancelotti took a slightly different approach in their 1-0 victory over QPR in the previous round, where he shuffled the team and gave some match experience to fringe players such as Hilario, Borino and Hutchinson. That game also signalled the return of Joe Cole after a long lay off through injury, and Cole, starting his first Premier League game of the season on Saturday against Blackburn, looked back to his old best, putting in a magnificent and creative performance which will please Blues fans and England boss Fabio Capello equally.

Bolton have found life in the Premier League a real struggle this season, with Sunday’s victory over Everton lifting them into the middle of the table from just above the relegation zone. Their problems have all been at home, where they have now just won one of their five matches played at the Reebok. On their travels they have won two and lost two, and will probably head to Stamford Bridge with a full team in order to give their fans some renewed hope of a revival in fortunes. Under Gary Megson, Bolton are not quite the same physical force which they have been in the past, but they still favour a lot of set pieces as their main sources of goals. In all likelihood they will need to at least find a couple of those to edge past Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea have won all of their games this season in all competitions, having only conceded one goal. This is the archetypal uphill battle for Bolton, and even if Chelsea put out what is to be considered a weakened side, they should still be able to more than match the challenge of the visitors

Chelsea to win: 1/3 at Bet365
Draw: 4/1 at BetFred
Bolton to win: 11/1 at SkyBet

Betting Advice: Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is pretty much a banker. One thing that is not in Chelsea’s favour is that they are collectively quite an aging side, with six of the players starting on Saturday against Blackburn being in their 30’s. After playing three matches between last weekend and this, they will have probably earned a rest, and players like Salomon Kalou will be taking the field as senior players. Bolton should have a little confidence for this game, after they performed well at Old Trafford and were unlucky to come away empty handed, and then having won their first home game of the season.
Chelsea to win in extra time: 8/1 at SkyBet

Chelsea will be happy that they are back at Stamford Bridge for Wednesday’s Match Day Three fixture against Atletico Madrid. The Blues suffered their second consecutive away league defeat on Saturday, as they fell to 2-1 to Aston Villa. Carlo Ancelotti will be bitterly disappointed with his team, as that defeat has let rivals Manchester United slide into first place in the league. It is hard to see why Chelsea have not been as good as they usually are away from home. The first defeat was largely brought about by having their keeper Petr Cech sent off, but they still managed to undo themselves as opposed to being outplayed. The same happened on Saturday, when they let in two goals from set pieces. That is not the Chelsea defence which dominates teams normally.

Chelsea pride themselves on being stingy at the back, but the Villa defeat will give Ancelotti food for thought, and Wednesday’s opponents Atletico, will probably be hoping that they get a plethora of corners. It appears that if there is one way past the Chelsea back four, it could be through corners. There will probably be much hype as soon as the visitors get a corner, but if Chelsea deal with it, then they should be fine. This could in fact, be just the game that Chelsea needs in order to restore some confidence in themselves. They will again be without the suspended Didier Drogba, who is an immense force up front, and so Niklas Anelka will lead the line.

Altetico are having an extremely poor start to their season. In the Champions League, they were held to a goalless draw against Apoel Nicosia on Match Day One, and then suffered a bad 2-0 defeat to Porto. The Spanish side, by far the weakest one in the Champions League, are lingering around the bottom quarter of the Spanish League, where they have won just one game out of seven. Add to that the fact that they are rock bottom in Group D without a goal to their name, then it appears as if they are in for a very long season. Chelsea will be desperate to take another three points, making in a maximum nine from nine at the halfway stage of Group Qualifying.

Chelsea certainly have the experience to go deep into the competition against this season, and Michael Ballack, who returns to the Chelsea line-up after missing Saturday’s defeat, knows that they can afford to take it easy. They need to learn from recent mistakes, and Carlo Ancelotti has been drilling that into them on the training ground. Players do make mistakes, but the team has to be there and be responsible to make amends. Chelsea have not been doing that, and the game against a well-below part Atletico Madrid could be just the tonic they need.

Chelsea to win: 7/19 at Coral
Draw: 4/1 at SkyBet
Atletico Madrid to win: 10/1 at SkyBet

Betting Advice: Chelsea need a confident and domineering display. They are good at the back, and all the media hype surrounding the Villa defeat, should just be a blip on the radar. Atletico will probably give more of a game than their current standings, but it won’t be good enough to beat Chelsea at the Bridge. They will have been concentrating on getting those little bugs out of their game, and they are professional enough to get the job done. It is unlikely that it will be a great break out game, as they will miss the influential Drogba up front. A comfortable result should involve a clean sheet.
Chelsea to win 2-0: 11/2 at BetFred
Niklas Anelka First Goalscorer: 4/1 at Ladbrokes

After suffering their first defeat of the season at the hands of Wigan in the Premier League, Chelsea will be keen to not let that result effect them too much. Chelsea were drawing at 1-1 when keeper Petr Cech saw a red card waved in his face after conceding a penalty. That was the beginning of the end for the Blue’s 100% record for the season, and it knocked them off the top of the league on goal difference. The now face one of those tricky away night in Europe, the kind that usually demands a performance of diligence and endurance opposed to putting on a show.

Manager Carlo Ancelotti will be feeling a bit of pressure for the first time in his short tenure at Stamford Bridge, although he insists that it is the right kind of pressure for him and his team. APOEL battled hard for a 0-0 draw in their Match Day One fixture at Atletico Madrid showing themselves to be a good physical side, as well as being a fairly compact and tight unit. They were keen not to concede too much space to their opponents. On the weekend, the Cypriots won their first league game of the season, having lost their three opening games in all domestic competitions.

The top wage of one of the Cypriot players is the equivalent of what one of Chelsea’s top stars could earn in a month. That is the gulf we are talking about between the two teams. Taking things into perspective, APOEL are an immense success story within their own country, having won the domestic title twenty times. Chelsea are in the hunt for major silverware again this year, as they are one of the favourites for the Premier League, the domestic trophies and the Champions League itself.

Ancelotti has a doubt over full back Ashley Cole and will require him to have a late fitness test. Chelsea are also missing Deco, Ballack, Mikel and Alex through injury, and will be missing the dominant figure of Didier Drogba up front as he is serving a three match European suspension. The London club will still be starting a strong favourites, and the small 22,000 seater stadium in Nicosia has seen a lot of home success in their European quests. Chelsea have only lost one of their last seven away games in the competition, but couldn’t muster an away win in the group stages of last year’s competition.

The ability to negotiate these potentially tricky away games, is something that the experience of two times Champions League winner Carlo Ancelotti was drafted in for. In many ways it won’t be an easy night for either team. APOEL will need to stand tall against their more illustrious opponents, while Chelsea will need to employ all of their craft and guile to ensure that the job gets done efficiently. A win would be important for them, to keep them at the head of the chasing pack.

Chelsea to win: 1/3 at PaddyPower
Draw: 4/1 at Boylesports
APOEL to win: 12/1 at SkyBet

Betting Advice: They will be missing Drogba up front, but Match Day One goal hero Niklas Anelka an Kalou should pose more than enough threat. With Lampard and Essien in midfield, Chelsea have sheer quality, and Joe Cole could finally get some European action after his long lay off. It could be one of those difficult away nights, but a 1-0 win for Chelsea 6/1 at Bet365 would be very satisfactory.

Stamford Bridge
Tuesday 15 Sept
Kick-off: 19:45 BST

Group D: Chelsea, APOEL, FC Porto, Atlético Madrid

The dawn of the new Champions League has arrived, and over the bustling Stamford Bridge ptich, the lights will bedeck the famous blue of Chelsea as they take on FC Porto. Chelsea have a 100% record at the start of the new Premier League season, but they have been pushed all the way in a couple of the games, having had to rely on injury time winners to collect all three points. Those wins sees them top the table. Maybe the positive to be taken from this is that they have shown a new edge of mettle which has kept them pressuring opponents to the final whistle, until they get what they want. That’s exactly how Champions win, scrapping for late winners as well as turning on the style.

They are now under the guidance of Italian manager, Carlo Ancelotti, who is insistent that his new team get to the Champions League final. Chelsea, have been so near, yet so far on so many occasions, reaching the semi final stage in five of the last six attempts. Supporters will now hope that Ancelotti’s experience will be the missing X-Factor that will get them that missing piece of Abramovich’s silverware. Chelsea have only reached the final once, where they were defeated in a penalty shoot out by English rivals Manchester United. Ancelotti has the experience of winning the Champions League twice with AC Milan, and is now looking to add a third title with the London club.

Chelsea will kick off their Champions League quest without the domineering presence of striker Didier Drogba. The Ivory Coast star received a ban after mouthing at the referee at the culmination of Chelsea’s exit against Barcelona in the semi final of last year’s competition. Chelsea had had numerous penalty appeals turned down, and eventually lost to a late goal. This enraged the passionate Drogba to the point where he could no longer control himself. His is a presence which will be missed, as he has found the net four times already in the Premier League.

To add more problems, Chelsea were recently hit with a transfer ban, after allegations of wrong doing involving the transfer of Gael Kakuta. FIFA hit them with a ban that sees them face an embargo on signing new players in the next two transfer windows. Ancelotti however, is determined that it will not play too much of a factor in their challenge for both domestic and European glory. The Italian has been insistent that he has the squad capable of winning already. Other absentee’s from the Blue’s line up on Tuesday evening will be Joe Cole, Alex, Yuri Zhirkov, Jose Bosingwa, Paulo Ferreira and Deco, who will miss the chance to face his old team. Even without Drogba, Chelsea still have a lot of power going forward, and Nicolas Anelka, who found an amazing new leash of life last season, will share responsibility up front with Salomon Kalou. They still of course have Frank Lampard, Michael Ballack running the show from midfield.

Porto are also undefeated in their respective league, having only dropped two points out of 12. Chelsea will have to watch out for Colombian striker Radamel Falcao Garcia as he averages a goal a game for his new club. Chelsea have shown that they have the mentality and staying power to reach the latter stages of the competition time and time again. They just need to now show that they can go one step further and join Manchester United and Liverpool as English Champions League winners.

Match Odds
Chelsea to win – 2/5 at Victor Chandler
Draw – 15/4 at Bet365
Porto to win – 9/1 at BetFred

Betting tip: Chelsea at home should be a banker in the Champions League. Porto have shown in the past they can be a pain in the neck, but Chelsea should still have the class to play their way through their opponents. The missing Drogba may take one dimension out of their game, especially if they need to scrap again for a late winner, but they have enough creativity and tactical know-how to not let any points escape them in this home fixture.
A comfortable 2-0 win for Chelsea will bring 11/2 at BlueSquare