Carlo Ancelotti

With Manchester City’s Roberto Mancini enjoying a brief flutter at the top of the Premier League (albeit jointly with Arsenal), the odds on him being the next manager to leave his post has lengthened. This is understandable, with things looking just a little bit better than it was when they lost back to back Premier League matches. But with just one defeat in their last eight matches now, City are gathering momentum, and Mancini looks safe, even with all the fuss involving Carlos Tevez. Mancini has drifted right out to 16/1 with SkyBet to be the next manager to leave. So, with Chris Hughton shoved out of the door at Newcastle, and Sam Allardyce being booted out of Blackburn, to many people’s surprise, who will be the third man on the chopping block this season in the Premier League? The market is looking just a little bit different now. West Ham manager Avram Grant is now the man everyone expects will be out of his job next, as the club have given him an ultimatum to win at least one of their next three Premier League matches. Those next three matches are against Blackburn, Fulham and Everton, with the first two of them away from home. It really could be curtains on Grant before the New Year and he makes a sound bet and is favourite in the market at 1/2 with Victor Chandler. But Grant of course, is not the only man under pressure.

Liverpool boss Roy Hodgson saw another uninspired match during the week in the Reds Europa League match. Understandably, he sent out a second string side, but none of the players looked as if they were really pushing hard for a place in the starting eleven. After suffering a 3-1 thrashing at the hands of Newcastle in their last match, Hodgson still has a lot on his plate. Being priced at 5/1 with Paddy Power to be the next man out of a job in the Premier League, it looks as if you have to start asking whether he can fill the potential of the club. It doesn’t appear so, and being twelve points back from the top of the league, there is a big mountain to climb for Hodgson. What may just save him, is a decent run of games against weaker opposition during December, with Fulham, Blackpool and Wolves to come. What of Chelsea’s Carlo Ancelotti? The Blues are certainly not in any kind of title winning form, and have a tough December ahead with matches against Manchester United and Arsenal to come. Could the Italian be out of a job sooner than later? Things certainly are not going his way at the moment, it has to be said, and the team are lacking confidence. Ancelotti is as short as 7/1 at William Hill, but for best value can be taken at 14/1 at Victor Chandler. Could a  crushing defeat against Manchester United on the weekend, see him ejected by Roman Abramovich? The owner reportedly isn’t happy with his clubs performances and the pressure is on the cool Italian. This could be a big defining weekend in the Premier League, for more than one reason.

Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Betting Tip & Odds: No ifs, buts, or maybes about this one. Tottenham should win. They have the passing ability, confidence and form to beat Chelsea, especially at home. Check out the outright odds on this one for a home win, because they are incredible value. Chelsea are favourites, perhaps leaning on their good record against Spurs, but this match is longer a given for the Blues. Not too much value floating around in the Asian Handicaps, especially when you stand it up against the outright odds on Spurs below. However, if you want to back a brave Spurs performance with coverage, then a Tottenham -1 Asian Handicap for 19/5 at Bet365 is a very attractive price. If you want some good value, then there is a decent 7/2 Tottenham one goal winning margin at Bet365, which is the amount they have beaten Chelsea by in their last two encounters at White Hart Lane.

Tottenham to win: 2/1 at Victor Chandler
Draw: 5/2 at BetFred
Chelsea to win: 6/4 at Bet365

EPL Match Preview: Chelsea are not going to find things easy in December. Carlo Ancelotti stated that he was unconcerned about the fixture list facing his side during December, and that the games would not be critical in the outcome of the Premier League. That is hard to believe with Chelsea having to face Tottenham, Manchester United and Arsenal all in December. Three defeats there, and let’s face it, the way Chelsea are playing it is not beyond the realms of possibility at the moment, and Chelsea will be really struggling to defend their title. While Ancelotti isn’t worried about the club’s title chances, nor his job, John Terry has different views. The club Captain is concerned over Chelsea’s dire dip in form, which has seen them drop points in their last four Premier League matches. It is now just one win in six for Chelsea, and Terry recognizes the fact that they need to turn things around quickly or fall away quickly. Chelsea developed a strong attacking flair under Carlo Ancelotti, which won them the domestic double last year, but now Chelsea really need to go back to square one and become an Italian team which is hard to beat. It is working for Manchester City at the moment, and that is what Chelsea need, a steady defensive platform so that the forwards can relax just a little bit. There is no argument or question over the ability of the forwards at Chelsea, but again, a Frank Lampard-less midfield is letting the team down, along with nerves and lack of confidence, both of which were on display in a terrible second half performance at home against Everton last weekend.

After an away defeat to Marseille in the Champions League in the week, really has Chelsea on the ropes, however there is still a glimmer of hope for them. Even though they have really gone downhill with their form, they are just two points behind leaders Arsenal and Man City going into Sunday’s match against Tottenham, and if Chelsea can get wins over United and Arsenal as well, then they will be well in the hunt again at the end of December. Their strong start to the season has given them this cushion, but now that has evaporated with just three goals and one win in six matches, and conceding eight along the way. That hasn’t been the Chelsea way, and the problems need to be fixed at the back. Alex will miss the big fixture through injury, and John Terry plays on through the pain. Breaching the Chelsea back line was almost mission impossible at the start of the season, but now, because of lack of depth at the club, there is a fragility about them which is completely out of character. Especially for having an Italian in charge. Problems at the back, big problems in midfield and problems up front. Can Chelsea turn this around against an in form Tottenham? Chelsea have been dominant over Spurs in the record books, but things have just turned around of late, with Spurs turning the table on Chelsea. Along with Alex and Lampard, Benayoun, Bosingwa and Zhirkov, who was playing an important role in Lampard’s absence all remain out.

So to Sunday’s big London derby itself. Can Chelsea beat Spurs? Yes. Will they? Probably not. Even though there is still class elements at Chelsea, you have to look at form, and for the first time this season, really start to not back them. That is because they go against a Tottenham side which are running hot at the moment, and that should be a big factor in your betting. Chelsea do still have a good record at White Hart Lane, almost matching Tottenham there. Spurs have won 26 meetings between the two clubs at home, while Chelsea have won 25 of the matches, with 18 draws between them there. Overall head to head stats lean heavily in Chelsea’s favour, holding a 41% win percentage, and Spurs having just 34%. Tottenham though have gotten the better of Chelsea at White Hart Lane in the last two encounters, both by a 1-goal margin, which is a good trend to look at in your football betting. Chelsea have now won just one of their last five matches against Spurs. The worm has finally turned. It is just difficult to see how Chelsea are going to score goals at the moment, with Nicolas Anelka and Didier Drogba both extremely goal shy at the moment. It is because of the midfield, which is letting the defence and attack down. It is an area in which they will possibly lose the match, because Spurs will have the edge over them there. There is little creativity, little drive from the midfield at the moment, and while there is a threat from the big strikers, unless they get the ball in dangerous areas, they are not going to be a threat.

Spurs also have key players missing, with Rafael van der Vaart having to sit this one out because of injury, along with Niko Kranjcar and Tom Huddlestone. Ironically, the weakest part of Tottenham’s game is in the middle of the park, but it is the area in which they should be able to take control of against Chelsea. Tottenham are as good of a passing team as Chelsea are on their day, but the added bonus is that Tottenham have great width to their team, whereas Chelsea tend to go a lot more narrow on the pitch. The width that Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon can provide to Spurs, is crucial to their success and it should allow them to really get in behind the Chelsea midfield and put the Blues defence under pressure. While their London rivals are struggling for form, Tottenham couldn’t be enjoying themselves much more at the moment. They won their Champions League Group over Inter Milan in the week, for which Harry Redknapp deserves a lot of credit for, and now they could pull to within just one point of Chelsea with a home win. Spurs are unbeaten in five league matches now, winning three and drawing two of their last five, and have only lost one Premier League match at White Hart Lane this season. They recently turned over Arsenal at the Emirates, from a 2-0 half time deficit, to win 3-2 against their bitter rivals. More of the same against Chelsea on the weekend, will put them well in touch for another fourth place finish in the league.

Chelsea still have the better defensive record than Tottenham, but Spurs should have the pace and the confidence to really take the game to the Blues. There is no reason why they should be afraid of Carlo Ancelotti’s men in the form that they are in. Tottenham have been far from flawless this year, but they are a side which seem to be growing into the season. They have the ability to really hurt Chelsea on Sunday, and having won four of their seven league matches coming off the back of a Champions League match, it looks as if Redknapp has found the balance between European and domestic hectic schedules. Even though Tottenham have the edge in form, they are still not favourites with the bookmaker to win, which means that you can find some great odds on them. Remember this is a team in form, at home, against a side which they have beaten at White Hart Lane in their last two matches. It will probably be worth investing some time in having a punt on Tottenham outright just to win this one, as odds of around 2/1 for a top five team at home, is pretty unusual. They have the tools, they have the confidence, they just need to go out there and get the job done. It could be pushing Carlo Ancelotti further out of his.

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Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Premier League Betting Statisitics

Last 5 Head to Head
Tottenham Hotspur 2, Chelsea 1
Chelsea 3, Tottenham Hotspur 0
Tottenham Hotspur 1, Chelsea 0
Chelsea 1, Tottenham hotspur 1
Tottenham Hotspur 4, Chelsea 4

Tottenham Hotspur have an 50% win percentage at home in the league this season
Chelsea have a 38% win percentage away from home in the league this season

Tottenham Hotspur are on a streak of six home matches with no defeat
chelsea are on a streak of three away matches with no win

Tottenham Hotspur have scored 13 goals, and conceded 8 at home
chelsea have scored 12 and conceded 7 goals in their away matches

Tottenham Hotspur average 1.62 goals per match at home this season
chelsea average 1.5 goals per match away from home this season

Tottenham Hotspur have scored the bulk of their goals in the 61-75 and 76-90 minute bracket
chelsea have scored the majority of their goals in the 76-90 minute bracket

Tottenham Hotspur have opened the scoring in 31% of their matches
chelsea have scored first in 56% of their matches

Tottenham Hotspur 2010/11 top scorer: Van der Vaart, 6
chelsea 2010/11 top scorer: Malouda, Drogba, 7

Tottenham Hotspur 2010/11 Season Form: P16 W7 D5 L4 GF24 GA21 Pts 26 (5th)
chelsea 2010/11 Season Form: P16 W7 D5 L4 GF30 GA11 Pts 30 (4th)

Chelsea v Zilina Betting Tip & Odds: Although there are domestic fractures appearing at Stamford Bridge, they will be a different class for Zilina. The odds below say it all below. The Blues won 4-1 away in the reverse fixture this year, and the same result should work itself out here. Expect the strikers to find a bit of form here and get things moving again. Florent Malouda Anytime Scorer 7/5 at SportingBet

Chelsea to win: 2/11 at Paddy Power
Draw: 7/1 at SkyBet
Zilina to win: 20/1 at Bet365

Champions League Match Preview: Chelsea entertain Zilina in a match that will probably come as some relief for them. The downturn in Chelsea’s fortunes over the past couple of weeks has been dramatic. There has been a complete falling away in form from them, suffering three defeats out of their last four Premier League matches. For the first time in his tenure at Stamford Bridge, boss Carlo Ancelotti lost back to back matches with the London club, as his side went down 1-0 at Birmingham City. That came on the back of a crushing 3-0 home defeat at Stamford Bridge by Sunderland, both results being far from the kind of form that Chelsea require at the top of the league. They have surrendered a big lead there, and are now looking for a fillip to put things right. Perhaps the distraction of the Champions League, and a match at home against the group outsiders will be just the tonic that Chelsea need to get themselves back into gear. For some reason the forwards have stopped scoring, after they came firing out of the blocks at the start of the season, looking as if they were gong to trounce all before them. That hasn’t happened, with Florent Malouda, Didier Drogba and Nicolas Anelka going through a barren patch in front of goal in the Premier League. A lot of the problems have been attributed to the midfield. Chelsea have been missing Frank Lampard in the middle, of that there is no doubt. When you compound the absence of Lampard with Michael Essien, who was serving a suspension, then the heart of the Chelsea team has gone. There simply has not been the same conviction without them. When Lampard went missing with injury, Chelsea turned to summer signing Ramires to inspire, and he looked good in supporting Essien. That has fallen to pieces, with Ramires warming the subs bench, and the influence of Essien going missing.

There have also been the troubles at centre half, with John Terry and Alex struggling for fitness, leaving the Blues back line exposed. They are still defensively sound though, when you break it down, and the only thing that is missing, is the conviction from midfield in getting the ball forward. That is the Chelsea problem at the moment, there is not that extra spark of flair there. Sure, with Essien back in the side, Chelsea will only be stronger, as he is arguably the most influential (yet understated) player in the squad. But even the half chances that a normally cool and collected Chelsea would bury have gone wasted. Have teams simply gotten smart to Chelsea’s style of play and are learning how to snuff out their attacking threat? You have to think that if the attacking quality is there to begin with, they will find a way, they will create a way to score goals. Chelsea beat Zilina in their own back yard quite comfortably when they first met, and Chelsea will be in the next round of the Champions League. There is no uncertainty about that, but Chelsea need to regain some confidence from somewhere. The Blues admitted that they may be forced to spend in the January transfer window, and that could have a big influence on their Champions League hopes. A glance over the outright odds, and Chelsea are still one of the favourites to lift the trophy, but they are falling short at the moment. They can be pleased however, with the work they have put in, in picking up four wins from four group games, so that they can take the pressure off themselves. Chelsea don’t really have the depth right now to even rest their stars in something of a meaningless game. But perhaps that is the last thing they need right now, as the likes of Anelka and Drogba need to stand up and be counted.

Only hard work and confidence will get Chelsea out of this bubble, and that is exactly what this game should bring. Is there a danger of Chelsea falling short again? That is almost unthinkable to be honest. That would be a bigger shock than the back to back defeats they have just suffered. Chelsea do not look a confident side at the moment, and it is actually hard to see where the goals are going to come from, even against such weaker opposition. Lampard and Terry will still be missing from the line up, but the return of Michael Essien could make all the difference. Alex is all set to carry on to play through the pain, while boss Carlo Ancelotti must be feeling some pains on the inside, although he is playing it cool on the outside. There have been reports that he is about set to quit, especially over the departure of assistant coach Ray Wilkins which was done without his say so. This is different from a Premier League match, and Chelsea should be able to relax a little more and get themselves back on track. Chelsea only need one more point to secure top spot in the league and that will come against Zilina who have yet to earn themselves a point in the competition. There may not be a repeat of the four goals that Chelsea put past Zilina on Match Day two, but it should be a comfortable victory in the end. The last time they met at Stamford Bridge in the 2003/04 Champions League, Chelsea won 3-0. The home side will be too strong against a side who were whipped 7-0 at home on Match Day Four.

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Chelsea v Zilina Premier League Betting Statistics

Chelsea Last 4 Results
Zilina 1, Chelsea 4
Chelsea 2, Marseille 0
Spartak Moscow 0, Chelsea 2
Chelsea 4, Spartak Moscow 1

Zilina Last 4 Results
Zilina 1, Chelsea 4
Spartak Moscow 3, Zilina 0
Marseille 1, Zilina 0
Zilina 0, Marseille 7

Group F
Chelsea 2010/11 Champions League Form: P4 W4 D0 L0 GF12 GA2 Pts 12 (1st)
Zilina 2010/11 Champions League Form: P4 W0 D4 L1 GF1 GA15 Pts 0 (4th)

Premier League Outright Betting Preview

There is much to look forward to in the new season of the Barclays Premier League and Odds, Tips and Prices can be found below for predictions. With a weekend packed to the rafters of domestic football, we are ready go with a new installment of the Barclays Premier League season. Time to ramp up the online football betting with your online bookmaker and take a good punt on the outright winner market. After a topsy-turvy season last year in which Chelsea just about came out on top, where do the clubs stand this time around? There hasn’t been too much activity in the summer transfer market, except from Manchester City. The general consensus is that there is more likely to be a Big Five or Six instead of a Big Four as seen in previous years, with the gaps being closed at the top. Certainly last year, we saw more defeats dished out to serious title contenders than would have been imagined at the start of the season. Will that happen again with the emergence of Spurs and Manchester City who are looking stronger? How about Villa and Everton on the fringes of stepping up a level? Where will the Premier League title land this year, and who represents the best odds?

2010/11 Barclays Premier League Betting Predictions

1st) Manchester United – 9/4 at Bet365 (Last Year’s Finish: 2nd)

Looking at things, even before the Community Shield victory over rivals Chelsea, United look to be completely together. They had a good pre-season, being tested across North America, and they looked sharp at Wembley. Strengthening the offensive corps has been done, which could be the all important factor in finding goals from a source other than Wayne Rooney. Mexico striker Javier Hernandez could just be one of the biggest coups of the pre-season and we await to see how much he gets used. Will Ferguson stick with the lone striker? Will Dimitar Berbatov play a better role than he did last year, especially as Ferguson was surprising loathe to get rid of him in the transfer window. You can see flaws in the squads of other teams, but when you look over United, you may see a hairline crack, say in the middle of the park, but there is so much quality elsewhere that they can be papered over. They haven’t done a great deal in the summer transfer window, but they look to have done it just right. Perhaps they could have found a better quality centre half to pair up with stalwart Nemanja Vidic after Rio Ferdinand’s injury plagued season, but Ferguson trusts the fringe players like Wes Brown. Out of Chelsea, Arsenal and themselves, United probably have the weakest midfield when you put them head to head, but they have Alex Ferguson who has a deep squad. If their key players stay fit, then they make for a great bet to win the title. If they don’t then they still have enough in the tank to challenge strongly. Barclays Premier League Betting Tip for the Top, as I don’t see anyone really touching them for the title. They have the most complete and versatile squad amongst all of the challengers to challenge on all fronts.

2nd) Manchester City - 7/1 at Ladbrokes (Last Year’s Finish: 5th)

Going out on a limb and predicting that the spending will come good. There are always counter arguments against such big spending sprees and brining in lots of new faces. The main argument is that you are not necessarily buying a team, you are buying a team of superstars which sometimes doesn’t work. Barcelona and Real Madrid seem to have done pretty well by it, and closer to home, look at Chelsea. They are the biggest example of buying success in recent times. When Roman Abrahmovic came in and started throwing money around, it instantly changed the status of the club, making them contenders. You buy enough quality players and you will get results. Sometimes you may have to rely on the individual brilliance of someone like Tevez, or you look for good team players. There is a balance, and over time during the course of the season, Manchester City can only get better and better. Perhaps they don’t have the quality in centre of defence that they would like, but they do have without question, is a hugely talented squad. When you name players like Hart, Adebayor, Tevez, Robinho, Toure, Milner, Balotelli, David Silva and Jerome Boateng then you really can’t have that many problems. Another important factor to consider, is that come the January transfer window, if City feel that there is a hole which needs plugging, they can simply assess what has happened and go shopping again. That is the financial power they have and they should be able to shake up the old establishment of Chelsea, Arsenal and their old rivals Manchester United of course. Put it this way, would Liverpool be enviable of City’s squad? Yes. Would Spurs be enviable of City’s squad? Yes. With the exception of Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea, who wouldn’t be? I don’t think they have the right manager, but they have every chance of running their city rivals close for the title as the money spent means they have to be taken seriously sooner or later. The experience of United should just win out though over the season. The Manchester derbies are a mouth watering prospect this year and could be title deciders. The arrival of City on the scene is an interesting one, as there is a big contrast between the top four sides. You have the established order of Chelsea, the maturing young side of Arsenal, the mix of experience and youth at Manchester United, and Manchester City, a team picked ripe off a very expensive shopping list.

3rd) Chelsea – 7/4 at SkyBet (Last Year’s Finish: 1st)

Just get the feeling that they are maybe falling behind in the race for the Premier League title. Granted, United looked strong favourites at points through the season, and Chelsea dug deep and threw out some fantastic performances to take the league by a single point. If Wayne Rooney had stayed fit towards the end of the season, then it wouldn’t have happened, plain and simple. Chelsea are an aging side, and while boss Carlo Ancelotti has given them a new attacking feeling, there is simply not the benefit of youth in the side, which the likes of Arsenal and Man Utd can call upon. They will also not be as strong at the back now Carvalho has gone to Real Madrid, and John Terry doesn’t exude the same rock solid confidence as he once did. To put it bluntly, there were cracks shown last season in Chelsea’s armour and I don’t think enough has been done to fix them at this point. Certainly not at the back where they don’t look particularly great at all. In a fixture-heavy season, the likes of Lampard, Terry and co, could tire as it could take its toll, and I don’t think they have the fire power in reserve if Didier Drogba or Lampard goes missing for a large part of the season. They did finish top scorers last season, yes, but Anelka, Kalou and Malouda doesn’t exude a lot of confidence. One thing which could salvage them is the spending power of Abramovic if they need help come the January transfer window. At this point they need a quality centre half, a midfielder ready to take over from Lampard and a world class finisher. Not sure where Benayoun fits  into the picture, especially if they land Brazil’s Ramires. There look to be too many questions and a lot of pieces needed as opposed to be ready to hit the ground running, and I think they will be found out a little more this season than last.

4th) Arsenal – 7/1 at Ladbrokes (Last Year’s Finish: 3rd)

Really torn between putting them third or fourth as I do not think there will be much between them and Chelsea for different reasons. After enjoying a great season last year, I think Arsenal should strongly be able to improve their position. There is a lot to admire about Arsenal, whose main target will be to do a little better against Chelsea and Manchester United. Other than that, there is nothing much wrong with the side at all. They are packed with quality youngsters and they never seem to fail the club, nor the style in which they play. Robin Van Persie and Nicklas Bendtner will be key to their success, as will their main man in midfield, Cesc Fabregas. How well Arsenal do could all surround him, but if he is the dedicated professional which we have seen at the club in the previous seasons, then Arsenal will be ok. There is a feeling that he will transfer in the January transfer window with Barcelona coming back with the kind of offer that can’t be turned down. If he goes then it will naturally leave a gap, and it would be interesting to see how much it bothers Wenger. He has Jack Wilshire primed as a replacement and that could mean could news for England. There are creative players all over the pitch for Arsenal, and they still have the awesome powers of Andrei Arshavin. They perhaps don’t have the squad depth of Man Utd, Chelsea or Man City, but if they keep all of their players fit for the season, and hang on to Fabregas, then they could sneak into fourth, potentially third in a close race with London rivals Chelsea. You generally trust Wenger to come good and get things right, and they will still be the best footballing side in the Barclays Premier League.

5th) Tottenham - 40/1 at Bet365

Toss up between them and Liverpool, but I would back Harry Redknapp over Roy Hodgson any day of the week. Redknapp already has a squad at Tottenham which has clearly shown that it can work well after finishing fourth this season. I don’t think they will be able to repeat that because of the spending power of Manchester City during the summer transfer window. But Redknapp is the master at picking out a diamond in the rough in the transfer market, and he will know how to perfectly tweak his squad to keep them going forward. They have a big task living up to the reputation which they gave themselves last season, and hopefully they will qualify for the Champions League proper and it won’t be too much of a distraction in the Premier League for them. Will those extra games needing to be played peg them back in the Premier League? It’s a tough thing to play midweek European games and show up fresh on the weekend again, and that is perhaps the biggest lesson that they will have to learn to deal with this season. There are a lot of pluses in the Tottenham squad, from Jermain Defoe, Pavlyuchenko, Aaron Lennon, Tom Huddlestone, Michael Dawson and more. The key factor is Redknapp and his mastering of tactics and personnel. He has said that he will let Peter Crouch go if he can find a replacement, and has been targeting Craig Bellamy from Manchester City. Why? Bellamy is the type of player who can come on and add that extra physical dimension to a side and is a seasoned professional. His type of player would likely get more chance of a run out than Peter Crouch over the season. They have the finishing touch of Defoe, the technical class of Pavyluchenko and Redknapp would perhaps like a bit more of a bite to complement the other forwards. A greatly balanced squad, perhaps a couple of world class quality pieces short of being a genuine title contender.

6th) Liverpool – 16/1 at BetFred (Last Season’s Finish: 7th)

Realistically I still can’t see where the improvement is going to come from for Liverpool. I believe they made the wrong choice of manager for starters, bringing in a man who has no experience of winning titles in the best leagues in Europe, and who is more known for salvaging teams from the brink of despair as opposed to being a front runner. Arguments against that will point to the great job he did at Fulham last year, taking them all the way to the final of the Europa League. True, but that did nothing for their Premier League placement, where they finished down in twelfth. True he had to work with limited resources at Fulham and did a good job of making them a good average middle of the table team, and that sums up Roy Hodgson perfectly I feel. He has a great managerial brain, that’s not in question, just not sure if it’s the right mentality of a Premier League title winner. As for players, they don’t have as good a squad as any of the teams above them. They are short of quality in defence for starters, and in quality up front. If Torres doesn’t return soon, or if he gets transferred then Liverpool will still be scrapping around outside of the top four. True, they have bought in Joe Cole, Milan Jovanovic, Christian Poulson and young Rangers defender Danny Wilson, but that doesn’t scream of a title winning side. I like Joe Cole a lot, but after being snubbed by club and now country, it makes one question about how influential he will be. Same can be said for Jovanovic who was allowed to walk out free, and in this day and age of everyone wanting to make a buck, Liverpool have been picking up the scraps that other teams have discarded. It is to Hodgon’s credit that he got their signatures, but I’m sure he’d really like to go shopping. He has sent players on their way, but until they get two new defenders, and a striker they will struggle. They will win enough games to keep them in touch with the top four, as they have a good balance in midfield with Aquilani, Paulson, Gerrard, Cole and Jovanovic. I think they will need another season and some cash though before they can recover from Rafa Benitez running them into the ground.

There are three things certain in life: death, taxes and a Premier League manager being relieved of his duties before the end of the season. There were surprisingly few sackings last season as clubs looked for continuity in the English top flight, although the bookies will be expecting to price up this market several times as the campaign progresses.

It’s no surprise to see Newcastle United manager Chris Hughton feature as favourite (11/2 Ladbrokes) across the board, despite leading the Magpies to the Championship title last season. Indeed, he’s as short as 4/1 with William Hill to win this unwanted race and will come under pressure if the north-east club don’t get off to a fast start.

However, you might think that the board will stick with someone who couldn’t have done any better last term and there are more viable candidates. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens at Manchester City with such high expectations from the club’s owners and Roberto Mancini is as short as 4/1 (Paddy Power) to be axed first. However, you can currently get 7/1 with Ladbrokes if you think the Italian might suffer a similar fate to Mark Hughes last term.

Roberto Martinez struggled to keep Wigan afloat in the Premier League last season and there are many people (myself included) who think that the Spaniard’s tactical approach is not particularly effective when it comes to survival in the top flight. William Hill go 7/1 that he wins this unwanted Sack Race, while Mick McCarthy (14/1 William Hill) is another man likely to be feeling the pressure if Wolves get off to a slow start.

It’s interesting to note that there’s a big disparity between odds when it comes to Owen Coyle. The Scot left Burnley for Bolton last season and the supporters will be expecting him to steer Wanderers towards mid-table and beyond. However, the signing of Martin Petrov might not prevent them from floundering again and totesport’s 22/1 about him being the next Premier League manager out of a job looks like a big price. Ladbrokes go just 10/1 – perhaps they know something!

Alex Ferguson (80/1 totesport) and Arsene Wenger (66/1 Paddy Power) look to be among the untouchables and they will probably choose to stand down at the end of a season rather than halfway through a campaign. Carlo Ancelotti (40/1 totesport) is probably slightly less safe, although the most attractive outsider is Martin O’Neill (16/1 William Hill) who has regularly been linked with a departure from Villa Park. Perhaps the Irishman might feel that he’s taken the club as far as  possible this season, while the potential departures of Luke Young and James Milner could push him over the edge.

Sam Allardyce (16/1 Paddy Power), Steve Bruce (16/1 totesport) and Avram Grant (25/1 William Hill) have managed several clubs between them in the Premier League, although they seem to have the backing of their respective chairmen.

Once again, it appears that Manchester City are going to spend over £100 million on players this summer, with David Silva and Yaya Toure the first of the new arrivals at Eastlands. This is the first time that the bookmakers are considering them to be serious Premier League title contenders and the 5/1 currently available with Ladbrokes and bet365 might only get shorter as the new season approaches.

There are two schools of thought regarding Manchester City winning the Premier League. Some might argue that Roberto Mancini might take at least another twelve months to mould this team into something special, especially as they finished a full 19 points behind champions Chelsea last season.

However, the flip side of the argument is that having significant spending power will enable Manchester City to outmuscle any rival bidder in the transfer market and they look set to reunite James Milner with former Aston Villa colleague Gareth Barry. With a couple of other new signings certain and a squad already packed with international players, they might be worth a second look at 11/8 on Coral’s betting without Manchester United and Chelsea.

Chelsea are the marginal favourites to retain the Premier League title, although much depends on whether Didier Drogba stays at Stamford Bridge. Although Carlo Ancelotti has insisted that the Ivorian will be with the Blues next season, it appears his agent has been in discussions with City and the striker’s departure would leave a big gap in the team’s attack. If Drogba stays, then bet365’s 6/4 is a fair price, although his departure would make life difficult – even if Michael Essien is back to full fitness.

Another reason that Manchester City might win the Premier League this season is the fact that Chelsea and Manchester United won’t be any stronger than last season. Sure, the Red Devils might not have as many injuries in defence, although Sir Alex Ferguson has declared that Chris Smalling and Javier Hernandez will be the only players to arrive at Old Trafford this summer. Perhaps the midfield will therefore remain short of creativity, even if Wayne Rooney is likely to score a hatful of goals. Victor Chandler are happy to lay the Red Devils and that’s where you will find a best price of 11/4.

Arsenal seem to have spent most of the summer fending off Barcelona’s interest in Cesc Fabregas, with the Spanish champions swooping over the Emirates like a hungry vulture determined to eat some juicy prey. So far, the Gunners have succeeded in keeping their captain on the books and Arsene Wenger is playing a typically shrewd game with a club that aren’t blessed with money after splashing out on David Villa. Wenger is also set to recruit a new goalkeeper and his team are 7/1 (Paddy Power) to win the title.

The only other two teams with a realistic chance of winning the Premier League are Liverpool (16/1 Bet Fred) and Tottenham Hotspur (40/1 bet365). It was the Reds that won the race to sign Joe Cole recently and the retention of Steven Gerrard means there is cause for optimism at Anfield.

It’s been a high-octane start to the Premier League, with 355 goals scored in the 117 games played to date. This means an average goal-to-game ratio of just over 3, although you can regularly find odds of 1.90 about the Over 2.5 Goals selection with bookmakers. Has there just been an initial flurry of goals at the early stage of the season which will ultimately slow down, or is there a trend emerging where the shrewd punter can capitalise before the bookmakers start to adjust their prices?

Before the Wolves v Arsenal match last Saturday, I noticed that Stan James were offering 2.75 that there were Over 3.5 Goals. However, a cursory glance at the stats illustrates that 7 of Arsenal’s 10 league games had seen four or more goals scored. While Wolves had generally been involved in lower-scoring matches, it’s worth bearing in mind that the strong favourite to win a match will ultimately have more bearing on how a game is played out. Aside from the Gunners’ 1-0 win at Fulham (a match which could have seen many goals), every other league match involving Arsene Wenger’s team have seen at least three goals scored. As we witnessed at Molineux, the visitors ran out 4-1 winners.

Indeed, there are only six teams in the English top flight who have had more games with Under 2.5 than Over 2.5. As you might expect, this includes Stoke City and Fulham, although Manchester City are something of a surprise inclusion. A closer inspection of City’s stats reveal that four of their five home matches have seen three or more goals scored, while five of their six away games have seen two or less goals scored. This suggests that Mark Hughes’ team go for the jugular at Eastlands, although play in a more conservative fashion away from home. After last Saturday’s 3-3 draw against Burnley, they might have to revise this policy although it’s interesting nonetheless.

Naturally, it helps to be armed with as many tools as possible when it comes to beating the bookie. Firms like bet365 actually provide their customers with a comprehensive stats section and we should be taking advantage of this unusual bookmaker kindness! For example, league leaders Chelsea have scored twenty-nine goals this season, but did you realise that the Blues have only managed eight of these before half-time? Carlo Ancelotti must be reasonable at giving team-talks as his team have managed more goals (9) between the 46th and 60th minute than any other team in the division.

Manchester United are associated with scoring late goals and the stats bear this out, with 8 of their 23 managed between the 76th and 90th minute. However, to say that Arsenal have been fast out of the traps in matches this term is misleading. The Gunners seemingly like to feel their way into matches, with no goals scored before the 15th minute. However, they have the highest amount (9) between 16th and 30th minute, something which is useful for In-Play betting on their matches. On the pre-match markets, bookmakers regularly offer betting on whether the goal will be scored before or after a certain minute, so with a scarcity of goalless draws this information is very useful.

Both sides won their Premier League fixtures on the weekend, but in very different styles. The Blues were wholly dominant in their 5-0 win over Blackburn at Stamford Bridge, while Bolton needed a late winner to beat Everton 3-2 at home. The big victory for Chelsea came after a 4-0 beating of Atletico Madrid at the Bridge during midweek, and both games will have lifted some concerns over two away defeats that Chelsea had suffered in the league. The game against Blackburn was their most impressive attacking display of the season, and they will be cheered even more to see Frank Lampard getting in amongst the goals again. Chelsea seemed to have let go of some reservations over the past couple of games, perhaps the disappointing away defeats having done some good in terms of showing them exactly how they need to perform week-in week-out.

Under Jose Mourinho, Chelsea would attack all competitions with their full squad, and the Carling Cup was no exception. New boss Carlo Ancelotti took a slightly different approach in their 1-0 victory over QPR in the previous round, where he shuffled the team and gave some match experience to fringe players such as Hilario, Borino and Hutchinson. That game also signalled the return of Joe Cole after a long lay off through injury, and Cole, starting his first Premier League game of the season on Saturday against Blackburn, looked back to his old best, putting in a magnificent and creative performance which will please Blues fans and England boss Fabio Capello equally.

Bolton have found life in the Premier League a real struggle this season, with Sunday’s victory over Everton lifting them into the middle of the table from just above the relegation zone. Their problems have all been at home, where they have now just won one of their five matches played at the Reebok. On their travels they have won two and lost two, and will probably head to Stamford Bridge with a full team in order to give their fans some renewed hope of a revival in fortunes. Under Gary Megson, Bolton are not quite the same physical force which they have been in the past, but they still favour a lot of set pieces as their main sources of goals. In all likelihood they will need to at least find a couple of those to edge past Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, where Chelsea have won all of their games this season in all competitions, having only conceded one goal. This is the archetypal uphill battle for Bolton, and even if Chelsea put out what is to be considered a weakened side, they should still be able to more than match the challenge of the visitors

Chelsea to win: 1/3 at Bet365
Draw: 4/1 at BetFred
Bolton to win: 11/1 at SkyBet

Betting Advice: Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is pretty much a banker. One thing that is not in Chelsea’s favour is that they are collectively quite an aging side, with six of the players starting on Saturday against Blackburn being in their 30’s. After playing three matches between last weekend and this, they will have probably earned a rest, and players like Salomon Kalou will be taking the field as senior players. Bolton should have a little confidence for this game, after they performed well at Old Trafford and were unlucky to come away empty handed, and then having won their first home game of the season.
Chelsea to win in extra time: 8/1 at SkyBet

Chelsea will be happy that they are back at Stamford Bridge for Wednesday’s Match Day Three fixture against Atletico Madrid. The Blues suffered their second consecutive away league defeat on Saturday, as they fell to 2-1 to Aston Villa. Carlo Ancelotti will be bitterly disappointed with his team, as that defeat has let rivals Manchester United slide into first place in the league. It is hard to see why Chelsea have not been as good as they usually are away from home. The first defeat was largely brought about by having their keeper Petr Cech sent off, but they still managed to undo themselves as opposed to being outplayed. The same happened on Saturday, when they let in two goals from set pieces. That is not the Chelsea defence which dominates teams normally.

Chelsea pride themselves on being stingy at the back, but the Villa defeat will give Ancelotti food for thought, and Wednesday’s opponents Atletico, will probably be hoping that they get a plethora of corners. It appears that if there is one way past the Chelsea back four, it could be through corners. There will probably be much hype as soon as the visitors get a corner, but if Chelsea deal with it, then they should be fine. This could in fact, be just the game that Chelsea needs in order to restore some confidence in themselves. They will again be without the suspended Didier Drogba, who is an immense force up front, and so Niklas Anelka will lead the line.

Altetico are having an extremely poor start to their season. In the Champions League, they were held to a goalless draw against Apoel Nicosia on Match Day One, and then suffered a bad 2-0 defeat to Porto. The Spanish side, by far the weakest one in the Champions League, are lingering around the bottom quarter of the Spanish League, where they have won just one game out of seven. Add to that the fact that they are rock bottom in Group D without a goal to their name, then it appears as if they are in for a very long season. Chelsea will be desperate to take another three points, making in a maximum nine from nine at the halfway stage of Group Qualifying.

Chelsea certainly have the experience to go deep into the competition against this season, and Michael Ballack, who returns to the Chelsea line-up after missing Saturday’s defeat, knows that they can afford to take it easy. They need to learn from recent mistakes, and Carlo Ancelotti has been drilling that into them on the training ground. Players do make mistakes, but the team has to be there and be responsible to make amends. Chelsea have not been doing that, and the game against a well-below part Atletico Madrid could be just the tonic they need.

Chelsea to win: 7/19 at Coral
Draw: 4/1 at SkyBet
Atletico Madrid to win: 10/1 at SkyBet

Betting Advice: Chelsea need a confident and domineering display. They are good at the back, and all the media hype surrounding the Villa defeat, should just be a blip on the radar. Atletico will probably give more of a game than their current standings, but it won’t be good enough to beat Chelsea at the Bridge. They will have been concentrating on getting those little bugs out of their game, and they are professional enough to get the job done. It is unlikely that it will be a great break out game, as they will miss the influential Drogba up front. A comfortable result should involve a clean sheet.
Chelsea to win 2-0: 11/2 at BetFred
Niklas Anelka First Goalscorer: 4/1 at Ladbrokes

After suffering their first defeat of the season at the hands of Wigan in the Premier League, Chelsea will be keen to not let that result effect them too much. Chelsea were drawing at 1-1 when keeper Petr Cech saw a red card waved in his face after conceding a penalty. That was the beginning of the end for the Blue’s 100% record for the season, and it knocked them off the top of the league on goal difference. The now face one of those tricky away night in Europe, the kind that usually demands a performance of diligence and endurance opposed to putting on a show.

Manager Carlo Ancelotti will be feeling a bit of pressure for the first time in his short tenure at Stamford Bridge, although he insists that it is the right kind of pressure for him and his team. APOEL battled hard for a 0-0 draw in their Match Day One fixture at Atletico Madrid showing themselves to be a good physical side, as well as being a fairly compact and tight unit. They were keen not to concede too much space to their opponents. On the weekend, the Cypriots won their first league game of the season, having lost their three opening games in all domestic competitions.

The top wage of one of the Cypriot players is the equivalent of what one of Chelsea’s top stars could earn in a month. That is the gulf we are talking about between the two teams. Taking things into perspective, APOEL are an immense success story within their own country, having won the domestic title twenty times. Chelsea are in the hunt for major silverware again this year, as they are one of the favourites for the Premier League, the domestic trophies and the Champions League itself.

Ancelotti has a doubt over full back Ashley Cole and will require him to have a late fitness test. Chelsea are also missing Deco, Ballack, Mikel and Alex through injury, and will be missing the dominant figure of Didier Drogba up front as he is serving a three match European suspension. The London club will still be starting a strong favourites, and the small 22,000 seater stadium in Nicosia has seen a lot of home success in their European quests. Chelsea have only lost one of their last seven away games in the competition, but couldn’t muster an away win in the group stages of last year’s competition.

The ability to negotiate these potentially tricky away games, is something that the experience of two times Champions League winner Carlo Ancelotti was drafted in for. In many ways it won’t be an easy night for either team. APOEL will need to stand tall against their more illustrious opponents, while Chelsea will need to employ all of their craft and guile to ensure that the job gets done efficiently. A win would be important for them, to keep them at the head of the chasing pack.

Chelsea to win: 1/3 at PaddyPower
Draw: 4/1 at Boylesports
APOEL to win: 12/1 at SkyBet

Betting Advice: They will be missing Drogba up front, but Match Day One goal hero Niklas Anelka an Kalou should pose more than enough threat. With Lampard and Essien in midfield, Chelsea have sheer quality, and Joe Cole could finally get some European action after his long lay off. It could be one of those difficult away nights, but a 1-0 win for Chelsea 6/1 at Bet365 would be very satisfactory.