Coral

Martin Johnson has paid the ultimate price for England‘s controversial failure at this year’s Rugby World Cup in New Zealand. The coach and former skipper of the national side falling on his sword when it became obvious that he’d be forced to become part of a new coaching set-up as a condition of carrying on. Bookmakers have a had a market prepared on who will be his successor but are still largely divided on the respective odds of likely contenders.

Northampton coach Jim Mallinder is among the leading fancies for the vacant role and Paddy Power have him as short as 7/4. However, most other layers have him at 3/1 and 888sport have taken a firm view about Nick Mallet. They have the former Springbok and Italy coach at 9/4 following a glowing recommendation by South Africa‘s World Cup-winning captain John Smit.  Under the current set-up, however, he’d still have to report to performance director Rob Andrew and that wouldn’t go down too well with the forthright Mallet, which probably explains why he’s a 6/1 chance to with sportingbet and Paddy Power to get the job.

Johnson’s decision to quit was clearly unexpected by William Hill, who were offering 11/4  that Johnson would quit before the Six Nations just hours before his resignation but failed to take a single bet of note. They are currently among a number of layers hanging fire on betting on a new coach while the RFU is in a state of flux, but Skybet have nailed their colours to the mast of Graham Henry. He’s just guided New Zealand to World Cup glory and looking for new challenge having allowed his contract with the All Blacks to run down. The English RFU wouldn’t have to pay anyone compensation, therefore, and he’s already expressed a desire to return to the Northern Hemisphere. Henry is 7/4 with Skybet but can still be backed at 13/2 with 888sport and Blue Square.

Shaun Edwards is available at 50/1 with Skybet and Ladbrokes, even though he’s just signed a new contract with Wales and is looking for a way back into club rugby, while others quoted include John Kirwan (16/1 with Blue Square, 888sport and Coral), who has done a good job with Japan, and Ian McGeechan (a general 33/1) but too much water has passed under bridge to take Dean Richards‘ 25/1 quote from Ladbrokes seriously.

It’s not difficult to work out why Mon Parrain has been heavily punted ahead of Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. With stablemate Poquelin (28/1 with Stan James) standing his ground in the Grade 3 handicap chase that’s worth over £85,000 to the winner, Ruby Walsh‘s mount only carries 10st8lb and will take some stopping if in the same form as when winning by 22 lengths at Sandown on his UK debut in March. He looked likely to follow up in the Topham Chase at Aintree the following month but just found course specialist Always Waining too strong in the closing stages. There’s more to come from Paul Nicholls‘ five-year-old but his age group haven’t a great record in this contest and his price (a best 7/2 with totesport, Betfred and William Hill) has contracted that much that we are forced to seek value elsewhere.

The obvious alternative is Wishfull Thinking, who never stopped improving last season. He was second in a Grade 2 over 2m4f at The Festival at Cheltenham in March before winning at Aintree and Punchestown and is 15/2 with sponsors Paddy Power. However, Loosen My Load‘s connections will fancy their charge to reverse track form with Philip Hobbs‘ charge on 11lb better terms and he’s twice the odds (a general 16/1), while the once well-regarded Calgary Bay is weighted to beat Wishfull Thinking on their run together over C&D earlier and he’s available at 40/1 with Stan James and Coral.

Great Endeavour (14/1 with Stan James) was a leading fancy for this race 12 months ago but could only finish sixth and races off a 5lb higher mark this year, while Irish raider Finger Onthe Pulse (a general 33/1) may have had his day. Lightly-weighted pair Aerial (25/1 with Stan James) and Quantitiveeasing still have scope for further improvement, however, and the latter is entitled to reverse C&D running in March with Divers (a general 14/1) on 7lb better terms. He could be a decent each-way bet with Betfred, sportingbet and totesport at 20/1 but I’m hoping for a big run from The Giant Bolster.

The six-year-old may hail from an unfashionable yard but he has first-class credentials for this having won over the C&D in January and contested many of last season’s top novice events. He may well have given the classy Time For Rupert something to think about had he not crashed out here a year ago and his reappearance over hurdles last month hinted at another profitable season. Boylesports offer 14/1 against David Bridgwater‘s gelding, which is simply too big if he gets into a rhythm, and he is the value against the market leaders.

The key to finding winners at this late stage of the Flat season is often uncovering those that are comparatively fresh in comparison to their rivals. One such is Willing Foe, who lines up for this weekend’s Betfred November Handicap, the last big race of the UK Flat season, with only one run to his name this year. That came at Newbury two weeks ago when the Godolphin gelding shaped with a great deal of promise in finishing fourth to Kirthill, staying on strongly inside the final furlong. The extra quarter-mile at Doncaster is hugely in the four-year-old’s favour as he won over the trip at Newmarket last year. At 13/2 with bet365, Skybet and Paddy Power, Willing Foe is plenty short enough in a field this size but he may eventually prove better than a handicapper and can make amends for a no-show in the race as a three-year-old.

There are bound to be dangers, of course, and one looks to be The Betchworth Kid. The promising Lucy Barry claims 5lb off Alan King’s versatile gelding who was runner-up to Times Up in the race 12 months ago when September’s Ffos Las winner Classic Vintage (16/1 with Coral, Victor Chandler and William Hill), Tepomokea, Montaff and Willing Foe were behind. The Betchworth Kid is only 3lb higher now and looks a stand-out each-way prospect at the general 20/1 as he goes well with give in the ground. Kiama Bay, 14/1 with sportingbet, has had a terrific season but Zuider Zee (a general 12/1) always seems to find at least one too good and never threatened on his latest start at Yarmouth, though trainer John Gosden has a good record in this race.

Merchant Of Dubai, sixth in the race in 2009, is dangerously well handicapped and may attract some each-way interest at Ladbrokes and sportingbet‘s 25/1 but has been a big disappointment this year and a better bet may be Pekan Star, who has only had five career starts. Roger Varian’s son of Montjeu should have no probelm with the step up to 1m4f and may be the type that’s best at the start and end of the year. He’s a general 10/1 and it would be no great surprise if he came out on top but I fancy Willing Foe to end the season on a happy note for favourite backers.

British culture secretary Jeremy Hunt was spared having to make history by setting the scale of the betting levy scheme for a second consecutive year when a deal over next year’s levy was agreed by the BHA and bookmakers minutes before Tuesday’s midnight deadline. The final agreement is estimated to be worth an estimated £72.4m.

The 51st scheme, which will determine what should be paid by the betting industry to the racing industry from April, was finalised at 11.45pm on Monday evening after 12 hours of negotiation on the day itself, though the two parties had been at loggerheads for many months before. For the first time, the scheme will provide a guaranteed minimum income for racing with the Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral and Betfair having committed to a starting figure of £45m, though the scheme should produce the aforementioned £72.4m of revenue if gambling projections prove accurate. That represents a small increase on the income from this year’s scheme according to the latest figures. Naturally, the figure is nowhere near the amount that the BHA were pressing for, and it’s probably more than the bookmakers wanted to pay, but that’s the nature of the levy scheme.

Nick Rust, managing director of Ladbrokes, is fairly satisfied however. He told The Guardian, “This is a sensible compromise that offers progress to both racing and bookmakers. We now need to start work immediately on a long-term settlement that builds on this progress and takes government out of the process for good.”

The British Horseracing Authority was less enthused, with chairman Paul Roy telling reporters, “There are positive elements, but it is disappointing overall and deeply frustrating that its terms can be imposed on racing by the Bookmakers’ Committee and Independent Members of the Levy Board.”

I’m a bit of a traditionalist and, to me, races like the bet365 Gold Cup or whatever it’s current nomenclature is will always be the Whitbread. That’s the case with this weekend’s St Simon Stakes at Newbury, which has been won by some useful-if-not top class middle-distance performers in the past. It’s been renamed the Worthington’s Champion Shield Stakes, presumably to accomodate the sponsors. Putting the word ‘Champion’ into any title smacks of delusions of grandeur and that’s certainly the case with this contest which doesn’t contain any superstars but several decent performers who are on the way up and a few heading in the opposite direction.

Recent trends suggests a fairly even spilt between the three-year-olds and older horses but there is a bit of a twist this year with unseasonably fast ground likely to be prevalent and that may not suit Godolphin’s entry French Navy (a general 8/1), who has never won on anything quicker than good ground. Roger Charlton won the race 12 months ago with Clowance and his Al Kazeem is sure to be popular. He’s a real Newbury specialist but the problem with him is the trip as he’s yet to prove he stays this far and was picked off by Green Destiny over shorter at the track last time having looked the likely winner at the furlong pole. Al Kazeem is a best 4/1. Barbican won over the trip at Ascot last month but looked a real stayer in the making over 1m6f at the same track last time and is upped in class at Newbury. He may be worth opposing at Skybet’s 7/1, while I’m not sure about Newmarket winner Mohedian Lady (6/1 with bet365) at this level. Colombian’s chance is obvious, however, as he’s been holding his own at Group 2 level and was fourth in the French Derby in June. But the fact remains that he’s only win so far came in a Chester maiden and connections have already expressed reservations about his effectiveness on the forecast underfoot conditions. He’s probably overpriced at 5/1 with Coral but we still prefer Beaten Up.

You could argue that the Beat Hollow gelding has plenty to prove at this level having only won a maiden and a classified stakes so far over shorter distances. But, being a half-brother to useful 1m6f winner Harris Tweed, stamina isn’t going to be an issue and it was the manner of his victory over much more experienced rivals at Doncaster on his second start which suggests Beaten Up has much more in the locker. Just the type trainer Willie Haggas excels with, he will almost certainly get better with age but can land this nice prize at the end of a successful first season at 11/2 with totesport, Betfred and Ladbrokes.

The Qipco Champion Stakes has a new venue this year with Ascot staging the Group 1 1m2f event instead of Newmarket among a host of top-class races which comprise the richest day’s racing in Britain. The contest has rightly attracted a host of Europe’s top middle-distance performers, despite the fact that it takes place less than two weeks after the Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe with both Snow Fairy and So You Think, third and fourth at Longchamp, turned out again quickly.

So You Think is fancied to reverse those placings with Ed Dunlop‘s filly over this distance as he beat her over the shorter trip in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown and the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. Aidan O’Brien seems determined to prove that his former Australian champion is just as effective over 1m4f but all the evidence so far suggest that 1m2f is his best trip, although he did finish third in last year’s Melbourne Cup over 2m. So You Think is proving popular again with punters at Ascot and is only a general 9/4 now but there is an unexposed colt in the race that could just provide an upset.

Dubai Prince beat the very smart Seville on his racecourse debut at Gowran last year and easily won his only other start as a two-year-old. Then moved to Newmarket from Dermot Weld’s yard, the colt was off the track for a long time before reappearing over 1m1f at Newbury but the manner in which he dismissed subsequent scorers Jet Away and Penitent oozed class and Godolphin‘s three-year-old could be the one to be on in this at the general 9/1.

I’ve also got the utmost respect for Twice Over, who has won the race for the last two years and come right back to his best in his last two runs. He beat last month’s Newmarket winner Ransom Note (a general 66/1) at York in July and took advantage of stablemate Midday‘s unexpected waywardness to land the Juddmonte International at the same track on his latest start. Twice Over is a general 8/1 to complete his hat-trick in this Group 1 but it would be no surprise if the talented Midday (a general 7/1) turned the tables back on a right-handed course as she beat Snow Fairy in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood and the quicker ground at Ascot is in her favour.

Nathaniel (13/2 with Skybet and Paddy Power) is also worth a second look, having already won the King Edward VII Stakes and the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot this year. He by-passed the Arc on account of the ground to run here instead but conditions certainly won’t be as he prefers them and the other big worry is the drop in distance – this is his first run over 1m2f. Green Destiny has improved markedly this term but he, too, might prefer a softer surface and another career-best effort will be required if he is to make the frame. He is a general 20/1 while French raider Cirrus Des Aigles is 9/1 on betfair as he bids to go one better than just touched off by Byword in a Group 2 at Longchamp. He never seems to run a bad race but we fancy Dubai Prince to show he belongs at this level by extending his unbeaten record.

Considering the distance of the Betfred Cesarewitch, it’s no surprise that jumping converts have enjoyed a measure of success down the years. Miss Fara, Landing Light, Detroit City, Leg Spinner and Carraciola have all transferred winning form over the jumps on to the Flat for this traditional end-of-season marathon in the last 10 years. And what’s equally significant is that all of those named were saddled by top-notch National Hunt trainers – the jumping boys are out again in force this season.

Nicky Henderson never wastes a trip to Newmarket and his mare Veiled is fancied to enhance his strike rate in this year’s Cesarewitch. She came right back to form over hurdles in the spring, winning a Listed handicap at Cheltenham in April and finishing fourth at the Punchestown Festival, and she’s continued that improvement on to the Flat. After accounting for Cesarewitch rival Gifted Leader (75/1 on betfair) over 1m6f at Newmarket, the five-year-old showed a nice turn of foot to beat Ermyn Lodge (20/1 with Skybet and bodog) and Phoenix Flight (75/1 on betfair) in the 2m4f Ascot Stakes and should comfortably confirm that form with the placed horses. Neither stamina nor the quick ground will be a problem for Veiled, who still has scope for further improvement on the Flat, and she should take all the beating at the general 11/1.

Another winning hurdler to consider is Beyond (12/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes). David Pipe‘s father Martin trained the winner of the race in 2002 and this lightly-raced four-year-old looks a similar type. He has only had one run on the level this year, winning over 1m6f at Sandown in July, and though he has to improve on that to get involved at Newmarket, that is a feasible scenario. Pipe also saddles Tasheba (41/1 on betfair) and Big Occasion (51/1 on betfair), the latter due to be ridden by Joseph O’Brien, while Mark Johnston also has three in the starting line-up. Colour Vision (31/1 on betfair), Becausewecan (85/1 on betfair) and Bowdlers Magic (also 85/1 on betfair) all carry penalties, however, and may be worth opposing on this occasion.

Keys doesn’t have winning form over hurdles but it’s surely only a matter of time before that happens as Roger Charlton‘s gelding was unbeaten in three runs in bumpers last winter. He’s also shown himself top be no slouch on the Flat either, winning over 2m at Newbury and Ascot in July. He had Colour Vision behind in the latter race and Cosimo De Medici (a general 16/1) was only sixth at Newbury but Hughie Morrison‘s charge has improved to win twice since, both at Newmarket, and is much better off at the weights now. He could easily go close and is one of the likely dangers to Veiled‘s hopes on maintaining her unbeaten record on the Flat in 2011.

Confidence that hosts New Zealand will go on to land the Rugby World Cup seems to be evaporating , despite the fact that the All Blacks amassed 240 points in winning their section and qualifying for the quarter-finals. Punters’ lack of faith can be largely attributed to the fact that the brilliant Dan Carter has already been ruled of the remainder of the tournament and, with rumours that all is not right either with influential skipper Richie McCaw, bettors have been looking elsewhere for value in the quarter-final draw. New Zealand, as short as 4/9 in places pre-tournament, can now be backed at 4/5 with Coral ahead of their clash with Argentina (275/1 with Paddy Power).

France didn’t put up much of a fight against the All Blacks in their group encounter and also lost to Tonga. They’ve limped into the last eight but Marc Lievremont‘s team look in total disarray and have been pushed out to 20/1 with sportingbet ahead of their quarter-final with England. Les Bleus have conjured a magical performance out of adversity before, however, and Martin Johnson and his players certainly won’t be taking them lightly at Eden Park, even though they knocked them out of the 2007 tournament and have a good recent record against their Gallic neighbours. England won all four group games but have hardly endeared themselves to the public at large with ill-discipline evident on and off the field. They only just got the better of Argentina and Scotland and massive improvement and more adventure will be needed if they are to justify our 18/1 ante-post advice. England are now a best 11/1 with sportingbet.

Ireland caused one of the biggest upsets so far in the tournament by beating Australia in their first match and as a consequence topped Pool C. They are now no bigger than 14/1 but face a fast-improving Wales in the last eight on Sunday. The Welsh were desperately unlucky not beat South Africa in their opening group game but that may have proved a blessing in disguise and Sam Warburton and his team have impressed since. Wales could easily overturn the Irish in their current mood and could be worth a speculative bet at 4/1 with Boylesports and Coral to reach the final. They are 18/1 to go on and win the tournament with Stan James.

Having lost to Ireland, Australia must now conquer the rest of the southern hemisphere if they are to reach the final, starting with quarter-final opponents South Africa. The Wallabies are 15/2 with Paddy Power to win the title with South Africa available at 8/1 with the same firm.

Punters were breathing a huge sigh of relief after ante-post favourite Dare To Dance crept into the Betfred Cambridgeshire, the first leg of the traditional autumn double, 33rd of the 35 acceptors. Jamie Spencer will partner Jeremy Noseda‘s lightly-raced three-year-old, who is chasing  a hat-trick after wins at Sandown and over a slightly longer trip at Newmarket last month. The second in the latter contest, Kirthill, has been well beaten since however and he is no sort of value now at the general 7/1. I’d expect him to be a drifter on the day of the race.

The Cambridgeshire has seen some big betting coups landed in recent times and John Gosden, successful in 2007 and 2008, knows how to prepare a horse for the race. He relies on Questioning this year, who hasn’t won since his debut on the Polytrack more than a year ago and is now visored. That’s an attempt to cure his high head carriage with the cheekpieces he wore when second at Haydock having been dispensed with. He has bits of decent form but, given his quirks, would you want to risk him at Coral‘s 10/1 in a field this size?

Credit Swap won the race last year but the six-year-old has only raced once on the Flat since and is 7lb higher now. He is available at a general 33/1 but last year’s third Pires should turn the tables. Tony Martin‘s versatile gelding is 40/1 with Stan James. There are three Hamdan Al Makhtoum-owned runners in the race so it must be significant that retained jockey Richard Hills has opted for Markazzi. Hills rode Tazeez to victory in 2008 and his mount this year is 24/1 on betfair. Sagramor, winner of the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot, could figure at a general 16/1 if bouncing back from a below-par effort on fast ground at Goodwood, while it looks like penalised Doncaster winner Man Of Action is Godolphin‘s best hope of success. He is a 14/1 chance with Paddy Power and Skybet.

German trainer Mario Hofer has sent over Combat Zone and Ideology (both a general 50/1), who were fifth and sixth at Baden Baden earlier this month, but both look to have their fair share of weight and the classy Arlequin (a general 20/1) and tough handicapper Pintura (33/1 with Coral) are also high enough in the handicap. That can’t be said about Cry Fury, who looks to have been trained with this race in mind. Roger Charlton’s colt could only finish eighth behind Man Of Action at Doncaster two weeks ago but a mile on fast ground wouldn’t have suited considering he ran over 1m4f at Haydock in the spring. His easy victory over 1m2f on good going at Goodwod last month advertised his claims for this and he’s definitely worth a bet at Stan James‘ 12/1 as he’s only an 8/1 chance with Skybet.

When it comes to the William Hill Ayr Gold Cup, trainer Dandy Nicholls is in a league of his own. The master of Sessay has only managed to get two into this lucrative sprint handicap this year but with five winners in the last 10 years neither Regal Parade nor Tajneed can be safely ignored, even though the pair have a few more miles on the clock than some of their rivals. Regal Parade won the race in 2008, beating Tajneed into second place, and went on to Group 1 glory at Haydock and Deauville. But he hasn’t really been finishing his races off this year and can be backed at a general 20/1. Tajneed (a general 33/1) has also been a little below par lately though, of course, you couldn’t discount either returning to form.

This is as competitive a handicap as you could ever wish to see, demonstrated by the fact that bottom weight Brave Prospector (a general 50/1) has already won almost £110,000 in prize money. That suggests Richard Fahey‘s three-year-old Majestic Myles (33/1 with sportingbet) faces a mammoth task under top weight.  Hawkeyethenoo (14/1 with Betfred, totesport and Paddy Power) shot up the weights after winning over 7f at Ascot and had earlier finished behind Pastoral Player off level weights at Newmarket. Hughie Morrison‘s four-year-old is certainly interesting in this, therefore, re-opposing on a pound better terms. He was given far too much ground to make up when finishing behind Eton Rifles (14/1 with Boylesports and William Hill) and Below Zero (a general 33/1) at Goodwood and closed the gap on David Elsworth‘s charge at Ascot last time. Drawn close the stands’ rail, he shouldn’t be far if the gaps come in time and is better drawn than his old rival who is stuck in the centre of the track. Last year’s Ayr Silver Cup winner Colonel Mak (16/1 with Betfred, Coral and totesport) won at Ffos Las last month but has to carry a penalty here and also appears poorly berthed, but the progressive filly Pepper Lane won’t go down without a fight and can be backed at a general 12/1, though she’s closely matched with sportingbet and William Hill‘s 20/1 chance Our Jonathan on Ripon running last month.

It looks like those with a single-figure draw may well be favoured come off time, however, and that brings both High Standing and Macs Power right into the equation along with Irish raider Croisultan (16/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill) and the potentially well-handicapped Kaldoun Kingdom ( a general 16/1). High Standing‘s last two runs in handicaps have been disappointing but he is well enough treated nowadays and shouldn’t be far away at the general 20/1 but I’m coming down on the side of Mac’s Power. James Fanshawe boasts a tremendous record in these big sprint handicaps this year, having already won the Stewards’ Cup and the Wokingham this year, and his five-year-old has plenty in his favour here. Eddie Ahern will be able to find plenty of cover for his hold-up mount and the guaranteed fast pace should mean he’ll be able to pick off his rivals one by one. Ladbrokes‘ 14/1 just looks a couple of points too big.