Cyril’s betting advice

SPREAD BETTING MARKETS (cont’d).
 
There are so many markets to choose from.
First Goal Minutes has a few offshoots which can be very interesting and profitable.
The basic idea is very simple. You buy or sell the teams minutes up to the time the first goal goes in. The spread is usually around 38 – 41. Of course there are the peculiarities that apply to this market that, you need to master. Does one or other of the teams have a habit of scoring early? Does one of them have a defence that "slows down" as the game gets older? once again  you must do your homework. There is an extension to this market appropriately called Second Goal Minutes. Surprisingly it is exactly what it says on the tin. You chose to buy or sell the minutesf or the second goal. 

The Biggie amongst these markets is Total Goal Minutes. The minutes of each goal  are added together. No matter who scores the goals. Own Goals are included. The spread for this market will depend on the two teams. Todays Man U v Chelsea will be around 110 – 120. Notice the size of the spread. The bookies love this market. More often than not, the starting BUY price is overweighted.  
Now the thing about this market is the possible large make-ups. Two goals in the 90th minute, (not unheard of, due to"added time") makes for mouth-watering returns. So the guys that SELL must be very wary of picking the right type of game. Hopefully he will stick to tight games. Anything that looks like coming close to the 2.65 goals which can be expected in a Premiership game. Always assuming the two teams taking part have ambitions to "put one away early".
Basically, this market is usually set too high on the Buy, but the high rollers love it. However, choose carefully, and Selling can be a very lucrative option.    

   
Of course once again you must Research your games. Some teams have a habit of making the most of their opportunities against specific rivals. Two that spring to mind are Liverpool and Newcastle United. Get these two together and the goals flow. The last 27 games have ended with 17 having at least 3 goals. 4 and 5 are common place and 6 and even 7 have been known. Apply recent form to these figures and you’d know whether  to Buy or Sell. Wouldn’t you? 

You can, of course bet on the foreign leagues. Here again you need to apply yourself to solid study. Even basic facts will prove useful. Such as, how many goals do teams average in each league. Although they’re all playing the same game, these figures differ by up to half a goal per game, at least. In the present season, Serie A have an average per game of 2.47 whilst La Liga in Spain stand at 2.92 and the Dutch Eridivisie is 3.10. Little known facts but nevertheless they can prove crucial when it comes to putting you cash down. 

People seem to prefer to BUY goals rather than Sell them. I imagine that is because the one thing we like to see in a game is GOALS. In fact that’s really what we pay for  when we put our entrance fee down at the turnstile. It’s a much more optimistic way of life to expect to see things good happen. Whereas watching and hoping that an attack will break down because you’ve SOLD GOAL MINUTES, seems to be a completely alien way of life to the average football supporter in Britain. A little bit of advice to any would be Sellers. Don’t watch the game, go to your local and down a pint. At least if you come off worst, it won’t seem so bad.
Next time I ‘ll wrap up the Spread Betting and move on the other things. 

SPREAD BETTING (part 2) .  — MARKETS.
 
The most popular market appears to be Shirt Numbers. You simply add together the shirt numbers of all goal scorers  in the match. Simple. NOT.
There are many variables in this market. First you need to know what the lineups are. So that you can try to decide who the likely scorers might be. You must also give thought to the possible substitutions.  Thses can make or break a good bet. Research is very necessary.

A few years back  a player named Akinbiyi, (spelling is probably wrong), joined a new club, (Crystal Palace?). Now this chap was a striker had usually wore number 10. However that was already allocated, so he chose what he considered the next best number. No not 11 but 55. 5 + 5 = 10. O.K.  So he was good at  maths. You can imagine what a spin that put the Market makers in. At the other end of the scale. A player joining a new club was photographed holding up his new colours. The shirt bore the number 68. The Market makers on seeing the picture, not unnaturally went "large" on the spread. When the teams appeared the new player was wearing not 68 but number 7. Now those who’d done their homework "sold" like mad, before the Spread Firms could rectify their mistake. The lesson being research every little fact you can.

Shirt numbers is popular but very volatile. What happens when number 4 is substituted by 26. Now if 26 is a renowned goalscorer what action do you take? Especially if you’ve "sold" the market. The opposite can happen when you’ve "bought"  and the star striker, 10 is taken off injured, and replaced by say, 3. These types of problems occur regularly but if you have done your research and laid out your plan properly, you’ll have an answer to the problem. Nevertheless. it is an exciting market, where you’re not worried about loyalties to players or club, as every goal counts, no matter who scores them. Of course if you get it right, the sky’s the limit.  

Another market that can be exciting without testing your loyalty is TOTAL CORNERS. In it’s simplest form you add together the number of corners won by both sides. A "normal" spread is 10 – 11.  Again research is necessary. Get two teams playing each other, who prefer "route one" and I doubt you’ll see many corners. However get two or even one team with a pair of wingers, sorry that should be, attacking mid-fielders, (just showing my age) and you can have a goal-fest. Just check the "corners won " figure for teams who prefer this way of playing.

Another version of "corners" is CROSS CORNERS.  This is where the corners from the first half are multiplied by the corners from the second half. Sounds easy. Well it is, until your get a "game of two halves". Say the first half is cornerless. ( It does happen and more often than you think). That’s your bet lost. 0 multiplied by any number is still 0. Similarly just one corner in a half can leave you wanting a large score in the other half, assumimg you’ve bought. Do the sum. 1 multiplied by ? is still ?
The final "corners" market is MIXED CORNERS. Again very simple. You multiply the corners, gained by both sides, together. However the previous warning hold good here, too. You’re looking for a nice spread of corners to each team. 1 to one team and 11 to the other will only get you 11. However if the 12 corners are evenly split, 6 apiece, they get you 36. 
Check your teams’ method of play, check the "average corners" for each team, and work from there. The watchword on Spread Markets, is RESEARCH.
 
These are just a few of the many enticing markets/spreads.  More anon.

SPREAD BETTING (part 1) .

Spread Betting is not for the faint-hearted. If you don’t understand it, DON’T bet in this media. If you do however want to try it out, bet in one of the Limited Loss Markets, until you’re happy with your progress. However CAUTION is the watchword.
 
Spread Betting started in 1974. A young unemployed stockbroker by the name of Stuart Wheeler had a brainwave that started people trading on gold prices.  A short while later it extended to Foreign Currencies and Commodities. That you might say was the thin end of the wedge.
 
We must thank one Jonathan Sparke for bringing Spread Betting to the Sporting World in the not too distant past.
Spread betting has been around for some time. Only at earlier times it was applied mainly to Financial Markets. The idea being that you would bet whether stocks and/or shares would rise or fall over a given period. If you fancied they’d fall you would Sell. If you thought they’d rise you would Buy. The more right you were, the more you would win. On the other side of the coin the more wrong you were, the lighter your wallet would be.
 
This form of betting was and still is, regulated  by the Financial Services Authority. Spread betting on sport also comes under their umbrella.This means that there is a fair amount of red-tape involved in opening an account with the companies that accept this type of wager. However having the F.S.A. is a free form of insurance.
The idea being that you must prove who you are and where you live. With suitable documents. This is to ensure that you’re not a terrorist about to launder your winnings for the benefit of God knows who?  You will probably be asked for an upfront payment. A DEPOSIT. I did warn about red-tape. So having proved that you’re a bona-fide sportsman with no evil intent what will you find? A cornucopia of bets to whet your appetite and empty your wallet, if you’re not careful. I have it on good authority that over 100 "markets" can be offered on One football match. How’s that for variety?  
 
With this type of betting you’re putting your money where your mouth is. So it’s important to know where you’re going and how you’re getting there.  In other words you must plan ahead and keep a weather eye on your finances, betting wise, at least. Don’t try to chase losses and don’t bet on impulse. Fancying a team or backing one because it’s "due" is definitely not for this type of betting. You’re never certain how much you’ll win or lose before the match ends. Returns can change on, the issuing of a card, a corner being given and of course a goal being scored. It can be a real White Knuckle Ride. So if you decide this is for you, Blackpool’s Rollercoaster will seem tame by comparison.    
 
 
In Spread Betting the bookie sets the odds or the SPREAD within a range which he hopes will be profitable to him, no matter how many punters are right.

The opening spread may be 46 to 52. In effect the bookmaker is saying the result will be within this range. You have to decide how wrong he is. If your opinion is that the spread won’t make up to 46 then you bet LOWER/SELL If you think he’s underestimated the spread the other way, then you back HIGHER /BUY.  You can only back within the range offered. In many cases the spread may be changed "in play" in a similar fashion to the Betting Exchanges. This gives you the opportunity to Close at a profit, or if it’s not going your way, to try to salvage something from your original bet.      

Let’s assume that you’ve chosen to Sell and you’ve bet at £1 per point.  The bet "make-up" at 38 . You win. £8. The difference between the bookies lower spread figure 46, and the final make-up figure. However had the final figure been, say, 55 you would have lost £15 .(You sold at 40 and the make-up was 55). In other words you either win or lose, the figure made up from the difference  between the outcome and the bet.  The "spread" between the Sell and Buy figures is the Bookies "edge".

The various markets are so many and varied that they deserve at least one article to themselves [to be continued ...]

A Few Oddities.

How annoying can it get? Your team takes the lead and then throws it away. Maybe to lose or just to draw. Nevertheless it does happen quite often these days.
I find that it’s more likely to happen to an AWAY TEAM than a HOME TEAM.( However don’t let this put you off backing a home team). One team that springs to mind is Middlesborough. They seem to make a habit of it. So far this season, they’ve scored first in 10 games, but only won 5 of them. Man City are no better. Their record is identical.
In most major leagues, there is a small  number of who fit into this same category.

Obviously to take advantage of this happening you would need to be using a Betting Exchange (like Betfair) which has the game running "in play".

Once a goal is scored, the odds offered on both teams will change. Often dramatically. (I am amazed, at times, at the over re-action by punters when a goal is scored). Almost inevitably the team that has scored will now have odds below evens.
With the usual attention paid to recent and historical form, I feel sure that there is money to be made in this area.

The stats for teams who fail to score first can be used in a completely different manner. Let’s look at teams who have an indifferent record when it comes to taking a lead. With most teams, this will happen when they are playing away. Would you fancy a team in the bottom half of the league, away to a team in the top four, scoring first, when they only have a 25% record for scoring first. Surely a fine chance to punt on the, NEXT GOAL, being scored by the home team.
There are a few teams in each of the major European leagues who have records which cry out for you to back against them.
In Spain, OSASUNA have scored first in only 6% of their games. Italy’s Chievo, 18%. these are outstandingly bad records. However I would think any side with 30% or less, as first goal scorer, would  be a good bet, to concede first, especially when away from home.                               

Is it exclusive to the Premiership, or does the New Manager Syndrome work in any other leagues?              
‘Spurs brought in Harry Redknapp and almost instantly their fortunes took a big turn for the better. Sunderland parted company with Roy Keane and their two games since Ricky Sbragia took over, have yielded 8 goals and 6 points. Now we’ve seen Sam Allerdyce replace Paul Ince and immediately they reduce their negative goal difference by 3 goals. Not forgetting Newcastle United. Since they brought in Joe Kinnear, they’ve lost only 1 of their last 9 games.  "What is it that brings about such an upheaval in all known form?   Being a cynic of the highest order, I would think that any side being short of points should just get themselves a new manager. If only it was that easy tho’

I wonder whether anyone is using stats in an attempt to conquer the various goal scoring (correct scores or over/under) betting markets. With the glut of stats available I’m sure there can be some hope of finding some very helpful pointers.

The first thing to consider MUST be recent form. Teams who have got their shooting boots on, usually stand out a mile. The same can be said for teams whose defence has more holes than a collander. For me these are the type of teams that I DON’T want to consider. Simply because games concerning them have a habit of getting out of the "normal" run of things. Sometimes the expected glut of goals happen but there are just as many times when they don’t appear.

A recent game in this category was Man United versus Sunderland. Surely Sunderland’s weak defence would capitulate against Tevez, Roo or whoever Fergie decided to put out. The not unexpected happened, and Sunderland just kept their men behind the ball. What should have been an expected 3 or 4 goal rout, ended with 1 goal in the 90th minute. I suppose what I’m trying to say is." don’t go for the obvious".
 
Check out recent goals per game averages. Say over the last 5 games. First, decide which teams you’re going to disregard. The BIG-HITTERS at the moment are Liverpool, Chelsea and Man. Utd.  STRING-BAG defences are West Brom and Blackburn. Forget these five sides and look at the remaining games. For the home sides record their goals for average in the last 5 games. For the away sides record their goals against averages for last 5 games. These figures will all contain decimal points. Crucial to remember.

How to use these figures? There will be a few ways to use these figures. You can try multiplying the home teams figure by the away teams figure. You’ll get a figure from around, 0.5 up to, possibly 5.0. This will give you a rough idea of how many goals to expect in the game. You must decide how these goals will be distributed between the two.sides to place correct scores bets. 
Of course there’ll be days when these "guesses" are well of course, but there’ll be good days too.

I don’t like picking out "instances" but these five games were played Saturday and Sunday. (Only qualifiers).
Stoke v Fulham,  forecast  0.84 goals   Result. 0 – 0.
City v Everton,  forecast  1.80 goals   Result . 0 – 1.
‘Boro v Arsenal, forecast  1.12 goals Result. 1 – 1.
Villa v Bolton, forecast  0.80 goals. Result 4 – 2.
Portsmouth v Newcastle, forecast 2.16 goals. Result 0 – 3.
The only game well out of range was Villa’s. 
 
This is not meant to be seen as any kind of system. More a way for assessing the possible number of goals likely in a game.  Then for correct scores betting of course, you have to decide how the goals will be distributed.   So, one problem solved (?) but another one ready made. Or you rather bet on over/under bets.
 
This is of course a very simple way of tackling the problem. More complicated methods of arriving at similar solutions are out there. The Poisson Distribution comes to mind but that will keep for another occasion.  
 
A word to the wise. Relating to my Matched Betting article. Blue Square and 888sport have been getting a litle lax of late and punters have found it necessary to get in  touch with Customer Service  to get their bonus bets. Be aware.

Matched Betting with Free Bets – this practise is a device by Bookmakers to entice more customers. And why not? The more customers they get, the better it is for all concerned. Bookies and punters.

Always read the conditions of each free bet offer. You’ll nearly always be restricted to one free bet per household. The same restriction will apply to each P.C. So don’t be quick to show your mate how it’s done, on your P.C.  Show him, but on his own computer. Almost all bookies state that the free bet must be placed on an event where odds no lower than EVENS (2.0  decimal), are offered.

Matched Betting is simple.

To entice you to open an account your bookmaker will offer you a free bet up to a specific limit. Whatever you stake on your first bet, he will give you a bet of an identical stake, once your initial bet has been settled. Assuming you bet £25.00 on your first bet, the bookie will settle your bet and, usually, within 72 hours he will credit your account with £25.00. All nice and simple. 

What we want to do is make good use of the free bet. To do this you also need an account with a Betting Exchange (i.e. Betfair).

The idea is simple. For your initial bet you BACK, with your hard-earned cash,  your selection with the bookie and LAY it with the exchange.(Again with your cash). Usually you will make a very minimal loss. This is quite acceptable. When your account has been credited for your free bet, you repeat the above sequence but this time you don’t use your own cash to finance your BACK bet, just for your LAY bet. Basically, you’re having four bets but only paying for three.

A fair example of such a bet would be;
 
Back bet £100 @ Evens (2.0)  Lay bet £100 @ 2.01  Lay bet wins, so you lose  £1.00
Back bet FREE @ evens         Lay Bet £100 @ 2.01  Lay bet wins, so you win   £199.00
 
On these four bets you’ve laid out £300. and been returned £398. A nice risk-free profit of £98. (Less the Exchanges commission).
 
The figures I’ve used are nice and easy to play with and I’ve used them just to show what can be done. There will always be variations but  your profit will always be there.
 
On some occasions there will even be some nice little ARBS when you’re making your bets which will change that small possible loss, on the initial bet, into a small but acceptable win. Of course if an Arb presents itself for your second bet, fill your boots.
 
Thursday 4th December. Blue Square offered these Back odds. Betdaq Lay odds.
Macclesfield v Bury   Back Bury @ 2.63  and Lay  @ 2.53.   A nice little bit extra to be made.
 
This kind of opportunity whilst not being too regular, still isn’t rare.  You just need to spend a few minutes of your time looking.  
 
LINKS.  
 
www.bet72.com
 
www.bonusbonanzamethod.com
 

And as to currently available free bet offers – you’ll always find them on our free bets page.

I am assuming that you have a working knowledge of Betting Exchanges. If not, get in touch with us and I’ll put you in the picture. At  present Betdaq only charge 2% commision. You need to request this concession, via e-mail. This will run until the years end, at least. Better than Betfair‘s 5%.

 
TRADING ON THE BETTING EXCHANGES

I would imagine that the favourite choice for most punters would be Home Win. And why not? Stats will show that it’s the most likely outcome of the three. Find a home team that  is on offer at 2.00 or more and you feel confident will score the first goal. Assuming your choice is a good one and you find your pick in the lead, you now have to make a decision. Stay with your choice or trade and give yourself a GREEN book. (This is a situation where you cannot lose money, no matter what the result). Your choice will depend on many things. Mainly, when the goal is scored. The earlier in the game when it happens, the more thought should be given to "trading out".
An alternative to trying to find a home to that you think will win, is to find one that has a good record of scoring an early goal. Then trade out when this happens.
 
A very popular "Trade" is Laying and the Backing the draw. Whilst very popular, it is fast losing it’s "edge".  
Very simply, you LAY the draw before the game starts, then when a goal is scored you BACK the draw. Sounds nice and simple. But is it?
Firstly you need a price of between 3.0 and 4.0 and then the favourite to score first, to get some kind of movement in the Back Odds. Even this is not guaranteed to happen to the extent usually required.
If the outsider scores first, the odds movement will usually be negligible, especially early in the game.
Then there is the big "bug-bear". A 0 – 0 draw. This is usually expected in around 8 – 10 % of games. Just paper-trial this method and see how often you can lose your bank. Some punters swear by this method but they must have their own criteria for finding qualifying games. Of course they’re not going to tell anyone this. Well they would lose that little edge that they have made for themselves.

Another popular Trade is under 2.5 goals. The idea being Back under 2.5 before the game starts, then  wait for the game to run for a short while and when you have an acceptable shift in price, trade out. The "bug-bear" here being one or more early goals. So be prepared for some nail-biting.

Many punters tend to find their own pet trading method. If you’re content to make a small but regular profit try "dutching" win and draw prices of the team of your choice, in what appears to be a close game. Then when your favoured team scores, LAY it. Meagre pickings I know but you have a green book. Also if it ends in a draw, you have two successful trades. The reverse of this is to LAY the unfancied side and when your fancied team scores Back the unfancied team. Again small pickings. You do however, always need a "GET OUT"  strategy for that very rare occasion when things go wrong.

BETTING EXCHANGES.
 
I could spend many hours describing Betting Exchanges and their many many good points and their very few bad ones. I will explain things to the best of my ability but should there be something I miss or which needs further explanation, do let me know.
 
Using the Betting Exchanges to place you bets, is by comparison to Betting Shops, the new kid on the block.
The concept is a little older than many people realise. BetEx was the first exchange about 8 years before Betfair. Betfair however, is the company that really started to get the bandwagon rolling. The brainchild of Andrew Black, aided and abetted by Edward Wray, Betfair started trading in 2000. The revolution had begun. Of course it didn’t take the detractors long to get their voices heard. "Unfair competition" , "it’ll never work", "they should be taxed the same as us". The voice of the hard-done by bookies. (Me included, at the time). All to no avail.

It did work, of course, and threw open a door to better pickings than offered by the bookmakers. (well 99% of the time, anyway). Betting with the exchanges will almost always give you a better crack of the whip, odds-wise. Not always the 20% that Betfair claim in their ads, but the difference will be there.
The beauty is that you’re pitting your wits and choices, against a fellow backer. Also if the price you think your selection should show at isn’t there, then you can request for it to be "offered". Provided you’re not asking for the moon, you’ll more than likely be matched.

There are around half a dozen exchanges, Betfair, Betdaq and WBX the three most favoured. If you take your betting seriously you should have accounts with at least  two of them. Having an account with an exchange will give you the ability to "chop and change" your strategies and, hopefully give you that "edge".

The biggest boost from the exchanges, is of course, the chance to back at the enhanced odds. Closely followed by being able to bet "in-play" on football matches.( Or in-running if you’re a gee-gee backer).                                  
There are of course other "goodies" to be had.  Back your team to win,  or if you have that  little doubt about them, back your opponents not to win, (i.e. LAY THEM), instead.  This is just the start. 
You can expect to see twenty, or sometimes more, markets on an "in-play" football match. There’s something there for everyone. Match odds, correct scores, half-time/full-time results, over/unders, ( a goal count bet) number of corners, etc etc. You name it, there’ll probably be a market to meet your needs. 

Of course, with football being a world-wide game, you’ll find coverage worldwide too. How exotic to be able to have a double on say, Flamenco of Brazil and Real Madrid. They’re there for the backing.

Ultimately, you’ll find yourself  with three choices. Back, lay or trade. The purists throw up their hands in horror when you mention trading, but there is good money to be made trading, especially if you can give yourself a "Green Book".  ( More about this later). The main thing to do when you decide to trade, is to find your strategy.  There are many bandied about but most have lost their "edge". Due too being aired too widely. Hence too small profit that was there has been eroded. "Too many cooks" springs to mind.                                                 
If you’re content with a small, but often, profit, then trading might just be your thing.  Many people who make a living from their betting are quite happy to make between 5 and 7 1/2%. I know it doesn’t sound a lot but do you know anybody who does even this well?
So finding a strategy to suit your needs is the first goal.                        

A Different angle on Stats

Correct Scores Singles

Correct Scores Singles