Cyril’s betting advice

CORRECT SCORES.Multiples.

This is usually a minefield. However if you’re prepared to just have a few winners now and again this could be for you. The rewards can, of course, be very acceptable. There are probably many many systems around especially for correct score betting but just as long as you realise that the odds against are quite big, you’ll not be too disappointed when the winners don’t roll off the conveyer belt. On the credit side, the returns can be quite large too.

When looking for suitable matches to use, I find that finding "mean defences" is the thing. Shy away from any game where it looks as if one team are capable of scoring a "hatful" .These tend to be a let-down.

Have a look at the present crop of scores for the league you’re teams are in. The Premiership has about 50% of games that end,  0-1 1-0 1-1 2-0 2-1.The Championship is slightly different in that 0-0 replaces 0-1 in the overall total of 54%. Obviously these figures need checking on a weekly basis to keep them up to date but they’ll rarely vary by more than 1 or 2%. Now if you can find two , or more teams that have good defensive records these scores should be of some use. Another good thing to look at is the H2H scores of opposing teams. A lot can be learned, here.

The odds for these scores will of course vary match to match. Rarely will the lowest price be below 6/1. The highest could easily be around 16/1 or so. If you were to use these scores for doubles you’d need to stake for 25 bets. Your lowest winning return 48/1 always with the possibilty of a much bigger reward.

A popular way to play the correct score game is via Odds and Evens.
Check out any team whose last four or so games have ended with a goals total of an even number. 0-0 counts as even.
Your scores for the coming  game would be those that added up to a odd number. 0-1 1-0 2-1 1-2. 3-0 0-3 etc. Where the goals total was an odd number you’d use  0-0 1-1 2-0 0-2 3-1 1-3 etc.

Of course some punters prefer to stick to singles. I’ll look at these next time.
 

[continuation from Cyril's betting advice part 5]

Now we want to match our ratings to what we hope will be odds which will be beneficial to our cause.

This will be simplistic as we start, but with experience you will be able to be more discerning in your awarding of points. Perhaps even using 1/2 points in some cases.

We will aportion prices in accordance with the rating figures.
Ratings                                Price Range.
90  – 100                              1/4    —     3/10
89  – 70                                1/3   —-     1/2
69  -  50                               8/15 —      4/6
49  -  30                               8/11  —      1/1
29  -  10                               11/10  –      2/1
                                         
                          
Should a team get less than 10 pts. Don’t rate that match.

Now we need too find the team with the highest rating. At this point we are only interested in home teams that are rated higher than the away team.
Always start at 11/10. If the home team is up to 10pts clear then this is his expected starting price. For each difference of up to 10pts. raise the home teams starting position by one level. If a team is more than 40pts to the good, forget that match. The actual odds will be prohibitive and that is also the area were form upsets occur.
 
Please realise that this is just a very very simple way of trying to bring some realism and fun into forecasting. The rating ranges are large enough to allow for them to be broken down and matched with prices within the set ranges.  E.G. Rating  81 would equate to, roughly, 2/5.

This is not a system, per se. I’ve shown what I hope are workable parameters which will allow those amongst you who are adept at this type of thing, to tweak here and there and really make something you find useful in your quest for profit.
Depending on feedback, next week I’ll look at some Correct Score "systems"
 

A basic record of all bets made is a MUST.

This will give you a much needed, at-a-glance guide, to which bets are money makers and which are money losers. After a reasonable period you’ll notice that there are patterns emerging. This will then help you to keep to profitable bets.
Those of you who are "Computer Literate", will be able to make your own Spreadsheet. Others, like me, will need to do it by hand.

We’ll need a few columns to cover

Date – Home Team – Away Team – Bet Made (1 or 2 or X)  etc. — Stake – Profit/Loss – Cumulative Profit/Loss.

I would also recommend keeping the odds offered for the three outcomes of each game. If you’re inclined to use the betting exchanges, keep their prices, too. These will be invaluable when you do an audit of your results. More often than not, a pattern will emerge that will show that you do well backing homes when the away team is quoted within a certain range, but not so well when the odds are outside that range. It might sound like bunkum but these patterns do emerge.

Going off track for a minute. Did you know that odds-on favourites outside the range of 4/6 to 4/11 are more likely to lose than those within that range?
If a pattern like this shows up in your betting method it will give you a little more of an edge.
Keeping accurate records will definitely stand you in good stead over any period of time.

Assessing Form. 
You don’t need to be a maths wizard to do this. The idea is to give you some knowledge of how you look at the form of the teams in a match. When you balance the form you’ll soon find that you can predict pretty closely to the experts prices.
It might not appear much on the surface but it will increase your ability at forecasting, too.

Firstly you must decide which factors you are going to consider and give them a value.
At first this shouldn’t be too convaluted. Once you’re happy with the way things are going, you can then become more "picky".

Try this.
Recent Form.  Up to 60 pts
Head2Head Form up to 10 pts.
Players Missing/ Returning up to 10pts.( a minus figure is possible ).
Goal scoring form up to 10 pts.          
Keeping clean sheets up to 10 pts.
It’s possible to have 100 pts but very rarely will this happen.
Try rating a few matches this way to give yourself a "feel" of things.

Next time we’ll find a way to fit the odds to the rating figures. 
Cyril

This week a trend has come to my notice that our readers members may appreciate.

The Trend is in the Hull City – West Ham match. Check the two teams results  so far this season and see the bias towards  >2.5 goals (over 2.5 goals).

There are quite a few "iffy" games this weekend. The one that will give, in my opinion, the best value is Villa – Pompey. Villa are slowly creating a fortess at Villa Park and Pompey’s away record is not something to be proud of. Villa also have some awesome power upfront. So for me it’s Villa to win.

The best odds available for the Aston Villa win are 1.85 at Pinnacle Sports.

For the cautious who want to make a steady and consistant profit LAYING Portsmouth at around 5.10 at Betfair might be the answer.

I will give you my very basic interpretation of  the Kelly Criterion.

You stake your bet according to the "edge" you think you have for a particular bet. If the "edge" isn’t there , No bet.

However I think the professionals can do it much better. So just google, "Kelly Criterion" and be prepared to spend some hours reading the wealth of knowledge that is there. You’ll find at least two calculators which do all the work for you.
This is a good plan for anyone with a decent strike rate. It works on a percentage method so in reality you can never lose your Betting Bank.

Whilst I favour Level Stakes, a percentage plan will give you a very good run for your money, even with only 50% winners. For those of you who like something a little racier, might I suggest The Bookies Bank. I found this whilst surfing and it’s quite a good alternative to Level Stakes. Find it and others at www.thestakingmachine.com

Having now finished explaining my three Golden Rules it’s time to put them together for the battle for the bookies and/or exchanges, money.

DISCIPLINE.

My bets will be in just one chosen sector. Football. One match per week.

I will SPECIALISE with  Premiership games only.

My STAKES will be Level Stakes. (100 pts per match). Using a round figure like this will make it easier to explain examples and bets.

To arrive at my weekly selection I will use different forms of assessment. Taking into acount. Current form of both teams–historic form of both teams–odds on offer from a number of sources.

The Historic Form can be very revealing. Especially when both teams have similar form in the present. Just check some of the "funny" results that crop up from time to time. Usually an away win. When you check the Head to Head from previous seasons you find something like–  w1–d1–l5  showing that the home team had won just one of the last 7 games against the opposition.
Just give it a go. You’ll be amazed how often it happens.

There will be other things to consider to help make the overall stategies complete.

It is a MUST that you keep an accurate record of every bet. What, exactly, we’ll decide later on. Also you should attempt to frame your own odds for each game. This will help you to see when there is a real value bet.

After covering all the above, I’d like to turn to the Betting Exchanges. I’m really convinced that serious money can be made here. Especially when "trading" strategies are used. Could be a learning curve for us all.
I’ll be looking for feed-back on these. Or anything else that you’d care to bring up. 

With Flo’s permission I’ll post my Football selection each Friday night. As far as I’m concerned these selections are for research purposes only.

MONEY MANAGEMENT.

There are many types of Staking Plans, each with it’s own identifible name. However they nearly all fall into one of four categories.  Fixed Staking, Variable Staking, Percentage Staking and Progressive Staking. Each one, of course, does exactly what it says on the tin.

FIXED STAKING,

more popularly known as Level Stakes Betting. You decide on your unit stake and apply it to each selection. All you need is winners to go with it. If you Are making a Level Stake Profit, over any reasonable period of time, it may be to your advantage to consider one of the other staking methods.  The prime consideration here would be your average winning and losing runs.

VARIABLE STAKING,

opens new doors and depends a lot on your winner/loser sequences. You need some decent runs of winning bets to see it too it’s best advantage. Usually you would bet. say, 5% of your bank on your first runner. If it’s successful you then increase your stake on your next bet, say to 7%. You continue to increase, in small increments, until you reach a plateau. (This assumes you have a nice winning run).Having reached your plateau you revert to your original stake and begin all over again.

A losing bet would see you revert to a smaller stake. The size of this would depend exactly where the loser occurred. The smallest stake would be, I would imagine, around 3% of your bank.
The good points in this method is that your larger stakes are on your winners and smaller stakes on your losers.

PERCENTAGE STAKING,

is simply a set percentage of your bank. The unit stake will increase as your winnes occur but decrease as losers happen.
Say you start with £100. You bet 5% on your first selection. You hit lucky and it wins at 2/1. You’ve made £10 profit. Add this to you bank and your next stake becomes 5% of your new bank. i.e. 55% of £110.
A run of winners soon has your bank increasing at quite a pace. Many people who use this method have a cut-off figure, at which point they withdraw all or some of their profits and recommence  with a £100 bank.

PROGRESSIVE STAKING.

Not the most salubtrious of methods.
The progression is decided before any bets are laid. After a losing bet, it’s back to the first stake once again.
This method relies, so I’m told, on the punter having so 70% winners.

There is one outstanding Staking Method. It’s called the KELLY CRITERION.

If there is enough interest  I’ll explain it the best I can but will give any links that I think will help next time.

DISCIPLINE is the first and most important. Without it you’ll never make a profit over any length of time.
You must be prepared to say "NO" when your heart tells you to back a selection because you made a few pounds on it a couple of weeks ago. There’s no place for sentiment when money is at stake. Especially when it’s your money.
The above is just one example of the pitfalls that await you if you don’t learn to say "No" to that little voice in your head. DO NOT deviate from your plan of attack. You might win a few bets that way but you’ll lose a much larger number than you win. And that means you’ll be putting your betting bank at stake.
 
SPECIALISE in your method of selection.
There is no way you can aquire the knowledge you need to make your betting pay if your method of selection is haphazard. Do you know how many racehorses there are in training? Do you fancy trying to collate form for them all? Thought not. So why back in a sprint race one minute and then a two miler the next?
 
There are many people who do make money from the gee-gees but they all specialise. The vast majority keep to sprint races. Two year old stakes races are another favourite, on the flat. Over the sticks Hurdle races are the likeliest source of winning bets.
 
Moving away from horses there are hundreds of football leagues you can study. What about baseball, snooker, tennis, American Football, Aussie Rules, basketball, golf, ad infinitum. There are thousands of betting opportunities for you. Pick one or maybe two and study study study.
You really must spend time reading any relevant pieces of information you can find. There’s plenty on the Web.
 
STAKING PLANS are a must if you intend to make a profit from your bets.
The most basic is  LEVEL STAKES. If your method of backing returns a profit when you’re backing with level stakes, YOU ARE IN BETTING NIRVANA. There are a myriad of staking methods you can use but you must find the one that best suits your method of selection. All have their good and bad points. Except the Martingale. This one is the fast road to the workhouse. It’s simply doubling up after a loser. A losing run of ten, not unheard of believe me, would have you staking 1024 on your next selection. Remember, you’ve already lost 1023 on your previous ten bets. That’s alot of money riding on your selection. Then, just imagine it wins, at ODDS ON. You just wont cover your previous losses. This is one to leave alone, at all costs. 
 
There are so many staking methods that I’ll keep the best for the next post. They really are that important.

I was around at the birth of betting shops.

How could anyone not immediately fall in love with the wonderful facilty-lacking places? And that marvellous fog like atmosphere. I loved it so much that I  taught myself to settle. I blagged myself a job as a relief settler/boardmarker. That was in July 1963. Thank God the owner didn’t know a bet from a bat. Fortunately I hit it off with the settler/manager and what I didn’t know he taught me. I WAS IN!!!

The years in between now and then, have taught me a lot.  Mainly, only bet when the chances of winning are greater than those of losing. Being able to do this takes a lot of hard work and studying.

Although I earned my living accepting bets, mainly on horses, I myself prefer football for my betting interests. Foinavon in ’67  taught me the error of my ways where horses were concerned.

The way to making money on any field of betting is strewn with traps of many kinds. The biggest cause of losses is indiscipline. No matter what your field of interest  you must be disciplined if you want to make money.

I have three basics in my betting phylosophy
1. Discipline.
2. Specialise.
3.Money Management.
Each is as important as the other.

Discipline speaks for itself. Never bet for the sake of having a bet. Always know why you’re betting on whatever will carry your money. "This one’s due to win", isn’t a good enough reason to back it.

Specialise in your selections. When you realise how many horses there are in training, or how many teams in the multitude of leagues available for you to bet on, the mind boggles. Not forgetting Greyhounds, both real and cartoon. Sorry that should be, real and computer generated. Then there’s the various numbers games to entice you.

Finally you need to keep a good grip on your betting wallet. Have a set amount to bet with and divide it between your selections in a way that makes good sense. There are many staking plans available to the punter. The only one I dismiss out of hand is the Martingale.

All these things will be discussed more fully as the weeks pass …

(Cyril is a betting expert with more than 50 years of experience – he will share  valuable advice, betting systems and a lot more here, so come back regularly to read more!)