November 26th, 2009 / cyril
Matches that draw at half-time but give a definite result at full time (part 3)
LE CHAMPIONNAT.
This is probably the "tightest" league out there.
Not one club is averaging 2 goals or over per game. This makes for "tight" games, obviously.
Recommendations can only be, "PROCEED WITH CAUTION".
France Ligue 1 overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| P.S.G. |
63,6 |
36,4 |
| TOULOUSE |
50,1 |
25,1 |
| RENNES |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| NANCY |
50,1 |
16,7 |
| LE MANS |
50,1 |
16,7 |
|
France Ligue 1 home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| TOULOUSE |
83,3 |
0,1 |
| MONTPELLIER |
80,1 |
20,1 |
| LILLE |
66,7 |
50,1 |
| P.S.G. |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| VALENCIENNES |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| LORIENT |
50,1 |
0,1 |
| LE MANS |
50,1 |
33,3 |
|
France Ligue 1 away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| ST. ETIENNE |
80,1 |
0,1 |
| RENNES |
66,7 |
50,1 |
| NANCY |
62,5 |
12,5 |
| P.S.G |
57,1 |
28,6 |
| BOULOGNE |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| BORDEAUX |
50,1 |
16,7 |
|
PORTUGAL SUPA LIGA.
The stand-out team here is Leixoes. At least as far as non-drawn games are concerned.
Sporting Braga are also worth a consideration.
Portugal Liga Sagres overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| OLHANENSE |
70,1 |
50,1 |
| SP.LISBON |
60,1 |
50,1 |
| LEIXOES |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| U.LEIRIA |
60,1 |
50,1 |
| SP. BRAGA |
60,1 |
10,1 |
| ACADEMICA |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| V. GUIMARAES |
60,1 |
40,1 |
|
Portugal Liga Sagres home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| SP. LISBON |
80,1 |
40,1 |
| LEIXOS |
80,1 |
40,1 |
| NAVAL |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| U. LEIRIA |
60,1 |
60,1 |
| V. GUIMARAES |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| PORTO |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| SP.BRAGA |
60,1 |
0,1 |
|
Portugal Liga Sagres away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| OLHANENSE |
100,1 |
80,1 |
| ACADEMICA |
80,1 |
40,1 |
| RIO AVE |
60,1 |
60,1 |
| U. LEIRIA |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| V.GUIMARAES |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| SP. BRAGA |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| BELENENSES |
60,1 |
80,1 |
|
NETHERLANDS. EREDIVISION.
Here draws, in general, are pretty scarce. Averaging a little better than one every five games.
Goal-less draws appear about once in twenty matches. Qiute a plus.
Sides like TWENTE and HEERENVEEN are worth consideration.
Netherlands Eredivisie overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| TWENTE |
50,1 |
14,3 |
| RODA |
50,1 |
28,6 |
| UTRECHT |
46,2 |
30,8 |
| HEERENVEEN |
46,2 |
15,4 |
| GRONINGEN |
42,9 |
28,6 |
|
Netherlands Eredivisie home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| RODA |
71,4 |
28,6 |
| NAC |
57,1 |
28,6 |
| TWENTE |
50,1 |
12,5 |
| HERACLES |
50,1 |
16,7 |
| WILLEM 11 |
50,1 |
16,7 |
|
Netherlands Eredivisie away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| FEYENOORD |
57,1 |
28,6 |
| UTRECHT |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| TWENTE |
50,1 |
16,7 |
| SPARTA |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| PSV. |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| HEERENVEEN |
50,1 |
0,1 |
|
SCOTTISH PREMIER.
This league has the MOST full time draws of the FIFTY-THREE leagues I studied.
35.2 %. ; With almost half of these being goal-less. Not really a league to have too much confidence in.
Scotland Premier League overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| FALKIRK |
75,1 |
41,7 |
| DUNDEE UTD |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| ST MIRREN |
58,3 |
33,3 |
| MOTHERWELL |
58,3 |
58,3 |
| HIBERNIAN |
58,3 |
33,3 |
| ABERDEEN |
50,1 |
50,1 |
|
Scotland Premier League home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| FALKIRK |
100,1 |
50,1 |
| DUNDEE UTD |
75,1 |
25,1 |
| ST. MIRREN |
57,1 |
57,1 |
| MOTHERWELL |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| KILMARNOCK |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| HIBERNIAN |
50,1 |
16,7 |
| HEARTS. |
50,1 |
33,3 |
|
Scotland Premier League away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| RANGERS |
75,1 |
50,1 |
| MOTHERWELL |
66,7 |
83,3 |
| HIBERNIAN |
66,7 |
50,1 |
| ABERDEEN |
66,7 |
66,7 |
| ST MIRREN. |
60,1 |
0,1 |
|
Remember the THREE basic rules:
DISCIPLINE
DISCIPLINE
DISCIPLINE.
Category: Betting Advice
November 19th, 2009 / cyril
Matches that draw at half-time but give a definite result at full time (part 2)
This time I’m looking at the main European Leagues.
The Spaniards of La Liga are just a little more than a quarter way into their season.
Tenerife look like a team to follow whether home or away.
Getafe an home and Valencia away are also worth keeping an eye on.
In Serie A I’ve only included teams with greater than 50% records. For expediency sake. The teams are a third of the way thru’ their programme.
Although Italian teams are renowned for their defensive qualities there are a couple of teams who seem intent on going for three points as often as possible.
In the Overall returns Cagliari stand out, at present. The Home records show AS Roma in a good light, with Udinese not too far behind.
Away figures show Napoli just clear of Cagliari, Sampdoria and Juventus.
The Bundesliga are also a third of the way thru’ their season.
Overall Berlin are the outstanding team.
At home there are a plethera of sides to watch. Koln, Berlin Hamburg and Dortmund.
Away records are once more dominated by Berlin, followed by Frankfurt.
Spain Primera Division overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| TENERIFE |
70,1 |
10,1 |
| XEREZ |
60,1 |
30,1 |
| VILLAREAL |
60,1 |
30,1 |
| VALENCIA |
60,1 |
30,1 |
| OSASUNA |
60,1 |
30,1 |
| ESPANYOL |
60,1 |
30,1 |
| GETAFE |
50,1 |
0,1 |
|
Spain Primera Division home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| TENERIFE |
80,1 |
20,1 |
| VILLAREAL |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| VALENCIA |
60,1 |
60,1 |
| OSASUNA |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| GETAFE |
60,1 |
0,1 |
| ESPANYOL |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| ATH. MADRID |
60,1 |
60,1 |
| ALMERIA |
0,1 |
40,1 |
|
Spain Primera Division away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| XEREZ |
80,1 |
40,1 |
| VILLAREAL |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| VALLADOLID |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| VALENCIA |
60,1 |
0,1 |
| TENERIFE |
60,1 |
0,1 |
| OSASUNA |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| MALAGA |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| SP. GIJON |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| ESPANYOL |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| BARCELONA |
60,1 |
40,1 |
|
Italy Serie A overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| UDINESE |
66,7 |
25,1 |
| CAGLIARI |
66,7 |
8,3 |
| SIENA |
58,3 |
25,1 |
| SAMPDORIA |
58,3 |
25,1 |
| LIVORNO |
58,3 |
25,1 |
| LAZIO |
58,3 |
41,7 |
| CATANIA |
58,3 |
41,7 |
| BARI |
58,3 |
50,1 |
|
Italy Serie A home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| LIVORNO |
100 |
33,3 |
| SIENA |
83,3 |
50,1 |
| UDINESE |
71,4 |
14,3 |
| CATANIA |
66,7 |
50,1 |
| A S ROMA |
60,1 |
0,1 |
| LAZIO |
57,1 |
28,6 |
|
Italy Serie A away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| CAGLIARI |
83,3 |
16,7 |
| SAMPDORIA |
66,7 |
16,7 |
| JUVENTUS |
66,7 |
16,7 |
| BARI |
66,7 |
66,7 |
| UDINESE |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| LAZIO |
60,1 |
60,1 |
| NAPOLI |
57,1 |
14,3 |
|
Germany Bundesliga overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| BAYERN MUNICH |
66,7 |
41,7 |
| KOLN |
66,7 |
25,1 |
| FRANKFURT |
66,7 |
33,3 |
| BERLIN |
58,3 |
8,3 |
| WOLFSBURG |
50,1 |
25,1 |
|
Germany Bundesliga home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| B. MUNICH |
66,7 |
50,1 |
| KOLN |
66,7 |
16,7 |
| BERLIN |
66,7 |
16,7 |
| STUTTGART |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| LEVERKUSEN |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| HAMBURG |
50,1 |
16,7 |
| FRANKFURT |
50,1 |
50,1 |
| DORTMUND |
50,1 |
16,7 |
|
Germany Bundesliga away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| FRANKFURT |
83,3 |
16,7 |
| WOLFSBURG |
66,7 |
33,3 |
| B.MUNICH |
66,7 |
33,3 |
| KOLN |
66,7 |
33,3 |
| SCHALKE |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| BERLIN |
50,1 |
0,1 |
|
Once again, do pay great attention to FORM. Recent and Historical. Also keep the figures up to date.
Matches that draw at half-time but give a definite result at full time (part 1)
Category: Betting Advice
July 31st, 2009 / cyril
Betting strategies (part1)
I prefer you use strategies rather than systems. I differentiate between the two as, Systems, A rigid set of rules without any leeway for "free thinking". Strategies A set of guidelines that can be used to help to assess form but can be manipulated to fit the occasion.
Anyone hoping to make money from betting must have more than one string to his bow. The reasoning behind this is that when one strategy is having a hard time others that you employ can help you thru’ the bad run.
One of the most popular strategies I’ve come across is "Lay the Draw". Unfortunately what was once a "good thing" now labours somewhat due to it’s popularity. In the early days of the Exchanges the odds were favourable until the moneymen started to make their presence felt. For those who may not know the workings of this strategy it’s fairly straight forward. Before the game starts you put a LAY bet on the match to be drawn. Then, when a goal has been scored you BACK the match to end as a draw. Here, is now, where the snags occur. If the AWAY side score first, it’s very likely that there will be little or no movement in the Draw price. Especially if the AWAY side is the unfavoured team. Another occasion when the price doesn’t move very much once a goal has been scored, is when both teams are "well-matched".
A possible alternative is to wait for half-time. Then consider LAYING suitable games that are still goal-less. One big point in your favour is that the price for the Draw will have dropped, favourably.
I’ve looked at quite a few different leagues to find those that have the fewest 0 – 0 games.
Those playing during the summer are:-
Iceland Div 1. 3.6% ending goalless.
Sweden Superettan 6.3%
Norway Div 1. 7.14%
Irish Div 1. 7.14%
Irish Premier 7.62%
Leagues that are presently "resting" include:-
Italy Serie "A" 4.73%
Spanish Premira 5.00%
English League 1. 5.8%
English Conference 8.15%
English Premiership 11.05%
These leagues may not be to your liking. Just check a few more and choose carefully. All the help you need is there for the taking just go to BASIS / STATISTICS. Nine marvellous websites at your disposal.
The big bug-bear in this strategy is the 0 – 0 result. By choosing your games carefully you can overcome this to some extent. The alternative is to BACK the 0 – 0 score for a small stake, to cover yourself. Of course this will mean a smaller return in total. So that makes it "Decision Time". Cover 0 – 0 or take a chance.
There is, of course, another way you could play safe. That’s by BACKING ………. on the 1 goal or more market. The prices on offer for both markets are usually very similar but they often depend on how the game looks to those watching and waiting.
Your belief in your own ability at choosing your matches, will make that decision for you.
Next times I’ll look at the UNDERS/OVERS markets and some of my own tips in a do and don’t format.
Category: Betting Advice
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