draw statistics

What is the value of a drawn bet? When you are looking over fixed odds outright prices for football betting, the option of the draw rarely gets utilised. Is there are much chance of a draw happening as a home win or an away win? Realistically, in a perfect world of parity, there would be an equal 33% chance of one happening when stood against the other two outright results. But because the majority of the time there is an outright favourite for a football match, nothing is ever broken down as simply as the above percentages. If Man Utd are playing West Ham at Old Trafford, really there is not as much chance of a draw or an away win happening as there is as a home win. This is because United are much better than West Ham, so the numbers of potentiality really get torn apart. There may only realistically be about a 15% chance of a draw, with a 5% probability surrounding a Hammers win, leaving United at 80% to win the match. That is the basic way to look at things, you can explore probability and work out percentages of outcomes happening by taking a look at our guide here.

But when it comes to the draw, punters often overlook the outcome, so, noticing a bit of a trend going on in the Premier League this season, it is worth exploring the possibility of a drawn match a little more. A drawn match often presents good odds, and this is because it is harder to call in your football predictions than it is a strong home win for example. The first place to look, is which teams have a preference for drawing matches this season, and who are running high in drawn match streaks. There are two ways to look at streaks, either the punter will decide that a streak has to be broken at some time, while other punters will ride a streak for all that it is worth. It is an unavoidable situation/coincidence, call it what you will, that force streaks to happen, and a lot of bettors do look for them in football stats and become and important part of planning a betting strategy for the weekend’s matches.

Current Premier League Draw Streaks

Sunderland – 4 matches
Bolton – 3 matches
Fulham – 3 matches
Man United – 2 matches
West Brom – 1 match
West Ham – 1 match

Premier League 2010/11 Drawn Match Statistics

August 2010
14th to 16th coupon – 4/10
21st to 23rd coupon – 2/10
28th to 29th coupon – 4/10
August Total: 30 matches played, of which 30% were drawn

September 2010
11th to 13th coupon – 5/10
18th to 19th coupon – 4/10
25th to 26th coupon – 4/10
September Total: 30 matches played, 43.3% of which were drawn

October 2010
2nd to 3rd coupon – 3/10
Total: 10 matches played, of which 30% have been drawn matches

Summary
70 matches played, with 26 draws, which equates to a total of around 37% having ended in drawn matches so far this season. This is actually something to be expected, and is around the right figure to look at. In the 2009/10 Barclays Premier League season, out of 380 matches played over the season, 25% of those were drawn matches. So when you start looking around there is definite potential in picking out drawn matches. In all of the coupons for a set weekend of fixtures in the Premier League, you have almost at least a solid 30% chance of  at least three matches ending in draws. There has only been one weekend so far which has produced less than 3 drawn matches in a coupon. Four of the seven coupons have ended with 4 out of 10 matches being drawn, which adds up to 40% of matches being drawn over the weekend. If you remember playing the Pools Coupon, then you’ll probably be smiling at those percentages. If you like those percentages, then you will see that drawn match betting is something worth exploring. Looking at the streaks, if Sunderland was playing Bolton then you have a pretty good shot at getting that right. Reading stats will certainly help you pick out a drawn match, and if you go based on the figures above, you should be looking around two to three matches out of the coupon being drawn, and that gives you a fair crack of the whip at picking something out. Don’t immediately dismiss the drawn match odds in your football betting, it can really pay off if you study it well. If you are still not convinced that a drawn outright fixed odds is worth looking having a punt at over a win, then there are good alternative options to look at.

Asian Handicap
This is probably the best way to try and cover your bases on games which are close to call, or even in ones like the Man Utd v West Ham example above, in where you think there is a chance of an upset. By starting a match and backing the underdog to hang on to a draw with a handicap start, can often pay off well. For example, if you took West Ham at a +1.50 Asian Handicap and they hang on for a draw, you will win, and will also pick up a win if the Hammers lost by no more than one goal. There are definite advantages to backing an underdog with an Asian Handicap, and is worth exploring next time you are thinking that an underdog may just hang on and tough out a draw.

Not Losing on Draws

Draw No Bet
This is a popular little side bet for people who aren’t quite sure in their betting. This is not going to bring you any profit for a drawn match, but it does give you some coverage if a draw ends in a match. Say you took Arsenal in a Draw No Bet option against Chelsea. If Arsenal win, great, there’s profit in your pocket, but if they are held to a draw, then you will at least get your stake back. Because there is a bit of a safety net with a Draw No Bet option, you are not going to find the odds as strong as outright market selection prices, naturally.

Promotions
Never underestimate the power of promotions in your football betting. Bet365 for example offer a stake refund on matches that end in a 0-0 draw. Certain markets will be rewarded, which is always a nice relief and Stan James also offer Goalscorer market refunds if matches run out to a 0-0 draw as well.

Matches that draw at half-time but give a definite result at full time (part 3)

LE CHAMPIONNAT.
This is probably the "tightest" league out there.
Not one club is averaging 2 goals or over per game. This makes for "tight" games, obviously.
Recommendations can only be, "PROCEED WITH CAUTION".

PORTUGAL SUPA LIGA.
The stand-out team here is Leixoes. At least as far as non-drawn games are concerned.
Sporting Braga are also worth a consideration.

NETHERLANDS. EREDIVISION.
Here draws, in general, are pretty scarce. Averaging a little better than one every five games.
Goal-less draws appear about once in twenty matches. Qiute a plus.
Sides like TWENTE  and HEERENVEEN are worth consideration.

SCOTTISH PREMIER.
This league has the MOST full time draws of the FIFTY-THREE leagues I studied.
35.2 %. ; With almost half of these being goal-less.  Not really a league to have too much confidence in.

Remember the THREE basic rules:
DISCIPLINE
DISCIPLINE
DISCIPLINE.

Matches that draw at half-time but give a definite result at full time (part 2)

This time I’m looking at the main European Leagues.

The Spaniards of La Liga are just a little more than a quarter way into their season.
Tenerife look like a team to follow whether home or away.
Getafe an home and Valencia away are also worth keeping an eye on.

In Serie A I’ve only included teams with greater than 50% records. For expediency sake. The teams are a third of the way thru’ their programme.
Although Italian teams are renowned for their defensive qualities there are a couple of teams who seem intent on going for three points as often as possible.
In the Overall returns Cagliari stand out, at present. The Home records show AS Roma in a good light, with Udinese not too far behind.
Away figures show Napoli just clear of Cagliari, Sampdoria and Juventus.

The Bundesliga are also a third of the way thru’ their season.
Overall Berlin are the outstanding team.
At home there are a plethera of sides to watch. Koln, Berlin Hamburg and Dortmund.
Away records are once more dominated by Berlin, followed by Frankfurt.

Once again, do pay great attention to FORM. Recent and Historical. Also keep the figures up to date.

Matches that draw at half-time but give a definite result at full time (part 1)

Betting strategies (part1)

I prefer you use strategies rather than systems. I differentiate between the two as, Systems, A rigid set of rules without any leeway for "free thinking". Strategies A set of guidelines that can be used to help to assess form but can be manipulated to fit the occasion.

Anyone hoping to make money from betting must have more than one string to his bow. The reasoning behind this is that when one strategy is having a hard time others that you employ can help you thru’ the bad run.

One of the most popular strategies I’ve come across is "Lay the Draw". Unfortunately what was once a "good thing" now labours somewhat due to it’s popularity. In the early days of the Exchanges the odds were favourable until the moneymen started to make their presence felt. For those who may not know the workings of this strategy it’s fairly straight forward. Before the game starts you put a LAY bet on the match to be drawn. Then, when a goal has been scored you BACK the match to end as a draw. Here, is now, where the snags occur. If the AWAY side score first, it’s very likely that there will be little or no movement in the Draw price. Especially if the AWAY side is the unfavoured team. Another occasion when the price doesn’t move very much once a goal has been scored, is when both teams are "well-matched".

A possible alternative is to wait for half-time. Then consider LAYING suitable games that are still goal-less. One big point in your favour is that the price for the Draw will have dropped, favourably.
I’ve looked at quite a few different leagues to find those that have the fewest 0 – 0 games.
Those playing during the summer are:-

Iceland Div 1.                               3.6% ending goalless.
Sweden Superettan                   6.3%
Norway Div 1.                              7.14%
Irish Div 1.                                    7.14%
Irish Premier                               7.62%

Leagues that are presently "resting" include:-

Italy Serie "A"                               4.73%
Spanish Premira                          5.00%
English League 1.                        5.8%
English Conference                    8.15%
English Premiership                 11.05% 

These leagues may not be to your liking. Just check a few more and choose carefully. All the help you need is there for the taking just go to BASIS / STATISTICS. Nine marvellous websites at your disposal.          

The big bug-bear in this strategy is the 0 – 0 result.  By choosing your games carefully you can overcome this to some extent. The alternative is to BACK the 0 – 0 score for a small stake, to cover yourself. Of course this will mean a smaller return in total. So that makes it "Decision Time". Cover 0 – 0 or take a chance.

There is, of course, another way you could play safe. That’s by BACKING ………. on the 1 goal or more market. The prices on offer for both markets are usually very similar but they often depend on  how the game looks to those watching and waiting.
Your belief in your own ability at choosing your matches, will make that decision for you.

Next times I’ll look at the UNDERS/OVERS markets and some of my own tips in a do and don’t format. 

More about betting strategies