English League 2

Saturday 24^th April

English Premier League

Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth

I normally avoid matches where there is nothing up for grabs but I’ll break with tradition as an all but safe Bolton host already relegated Portsmouth at the Reebok.

Owen Coyle’s appointment in January has paid off for Bolton as the former Burnley manager has guided his new club to safety with a couple of games to spare. He’s not done much in the way of changing things from his predecessor but what he has done has significantly improved them. The loan signings of Jack Wilshere and Vladimir Weiss have been shrewd acquisitions and enhanced the quality in the squad. Their form, however, has not be excellent or consistent, it’s been patchy and they’ve basically done enough to survive but no more. If Hull or West Ham had put together any sort of run of form then Bolton would still be in danger of the drop. Last weeks 2-1 over Stoke was a big win and has given them a breathing space they’ve never really had throughout the season. What Coyle has done, however, has improved their home form and they are now a stronger team when playing at the Reebok. Before Man United and Aston Villa won in recent weeks, Bolton had went on a 6 match unbeaten home run. They’ll be looking to recapture that kind of form as soon as possible.

It’s been another turbulent week for Portsmouth and things just seem to be unravelling even more so for the South coast club. Reports suggest that their debt owed is upwards of £120m whilst they have been banned from playing in the Europa League next season despite qualifying through their exploits in this season’s FA Cup. It is a massive blow for the club as a whole. The players, fans and management will not get a chance to play in Europe whilst the money men won’t be able to recoup some much needed finances from the games. Avram Grant will again contend with a plethora of injuries when picking a side tomorrow afternoon. He will be unable to select the likes of Jamie O’Hara, Nadir Belhadj, Tal Ben Haim, Danny Webber or Herman Hreidarsson.  Four of those players would almost certainly have started if Grant went with his strongest XI so their absence cannot be underestimated.

Bolton are not mathematically save but realistically, they are. One more win, however, would see them over the line. Owen Coyle will know he has a massive re-building job on his hands over the summer and as such, the current crop of players will be playing for their futures at the club. They will be determined to prove to the manager that they are capable of playing for Bolton and the only way to do that is by winning games between now and the end of the season. Portsmouth have been a level behind most of the other clubs in the league this season even when they were full strength. Now they’re not and their eyes are obviously looking ahead to the FA Cup final, you just wonder what motivation they have going into tomorrow’s match. One argument could be that they’re playing for final places but I think it’s obvious that Grant knows who he wishes to play against Chelsea on May 16^th. With that in mind, I think Bolton’s determination and desire will be greater and even at the prohibitive odds, I’ll take them to win.

My selection: Bolton to beat Portsmouth at a best priced 4/7 available with Betfred

English League 2

Morecambe v Dagenham and Redbridge

If my first game previewed this week is rather meaningless, the second one is anything but. Both Morecambe and Dagenham have big hopes and chances of securing a play-off spot and class tomorrow afternoon.

Morecambe have put together a strong run of form at the right time, especially their home form. They have won 6 of their last 7 at home, drawing the other match. During that run of form they have defeated Rotherham and Port Vale, two sides who sit above them in the table, as well as gaining maximum points against sides fighting for their lives at the bottom of the table. Their home form for much of the season has been strong as they have only lost 3 games at Christie Park all season long. It’s been the catalyst for their chances of finishing in the play-off’s. They will have to do without their top scorer Phil Jevons for tomorrow’s crunch math. The striker is out with an injury so it looks as though veteran striker Paul Mullin will have to lead the line. Mullin has scored in 2 of his sides last 3 home games so although Jevons will be missed; they have another striker in form.

Dagenham and Redbridge are currently occupying one of the spots tomorrow’s opponents want. John Still’s side have been consistent for much of the season and like Morecambe, most of their points have came at home. The Daggers have only won 4 games on the road this season so they’ll know that they have to up their game if they wish to take anything from tomorrow’s match. Their 4 wins have came against sides below them in the table bar one, their most recent win against Aldershot. Despite their lack of away wins, they’ve only lost one match on the road in their last 8 games which is pretty decent going in such a competitive league. Still also has the benefit of being able to name the same side once again which is a great boost as continuity at this time of the season is precious.

I think there will be goals tomorrow as both sides tend to concede and also score plenty as well. With everything that is at stake and with both sides in good form heading into the match, it’s hard to call a winner. Instead I’ll have a play on the goals markets.

My selections: Over 2.5 goals at a best priced 5/6 with Bodog

                            Paul Mullin to score anytime at a best priced 2/1 available at Bet365

Saturday 10^th October

English League 1

Carlisle v Norwich City

Norwich will be looking to make it 4 straight wins in all competitions when they travel north to take on a Carlisle side who haven’t picked up a league victory since the 5^th of September.

Paul Lambert has had a positive impact since replacing Bryan Gunn as Norwich manager back in August. Incidentally, it was Lambert’s former side, Colchester, who caused Gunn’s sacking when his Canaries side lost 7-1 to them on the opening day of the season. Since Lambert’s arrival, City have climbed the table and currently find themselves in 7^th position, 1 place and 2 points outside of the play-off picture. They have won their last two matches in the league, both at home, by a four goal margin each time. Their last two away matches have been against strong home sides in the shape of Gillingham and MK Dons. The former resulted in a stalemate in a match Norwich may feel they should have taken all 3 points whilst they will also feel aggrieved at not taking something from MK Dons in a match they dominated for large spells.

Carlisle United have found life difficult in the league this year managing only two victories from their 11 matches this far. Their home form, normally quite strong, has let them down with only one win from 5 games whilst losing 3 of those. They have lost to pretty weak sides all in all, Brentford, Exeter and Brighton are not great by any stretch of the imagination and are teams who are likely to be at the same end of the league as Carlisle come the end of the season. Their only success was against the hapless Tranmere who have been brushed aside by most teams already this season whilst they picked up a credible draw with Southampton.

Norwich will be hoping their top scorer and captain Grant Holt is fit enough to start tomorrow as he is instrumental in Lambert’s style of play. The former Celtic and Dortmund midfielder likes his teams to get the ball wide and whip crosses into the box for the target man so Holt’s fitness is key to this game. If, as expected, he does play, I think Carlisle’s defence is in for a very difficult 90 minutes. A big blow to Norwich will be the absence of Stephen Hughes who is on international duty with Scotland. Darrel Russell may well come in to replace Hughes.

Carlisle will be desperate to pick up their first 3 points in more than a month tomorrow and may take some comfort from the fact that their opponents have only notched one victory on the road in the league this term. That statistic, however, is deceptive as Lambert wasn’t in place for one of their two away defeats and his side have shown a big improvement on their travels. With Grant Holt in excellent form I just think Norwich’s attacking flair will be too much and see them home rather comfortably in the end.

My selection: Norwich City to beat Carlisle United

Best odds available: 11/8 available with several bookmakers including bet365

English League 2

Bradford City v Crewe Alexandra

A local derby of sorts with Yorkshire meeting Lancashire at Valley Parade as Dario Gradi takes his troops to face Stuart McCall’s Bradford.

Bradford City had a poor start to the league campaign losing 5-0 to Notts County before dropping a further 5 points in their next two matches. It wasn’t until an extraordinary match at Cheltenham that they picked up their first 3 points of the season winning 5-4. Since then, the Bantams have not looked back and have remained unbeaten since. In this run they have won 4 and drawn 4 which has seen them climb the table to 9^th position, 3 points off 7^th place. Their home form looks patchy when you look at their season stats but when you focus on their last 3 home games it looks a lot more positive with 2 wins and a draw with only one goal conceded. They may not have been playing the strongest away sides but they have been despatched with considerable ease.

Crewe have found things a little tough going since their relegation to England’s 4^th flight of league football. They started the season reasonably well with 4 league victories from their opening half dozen matches. They have, however, lost their last 5 matches in the league which meant that their former manager lost his job as a consequence. Dario Gradi has since taken over again but even his return could not halt the clubs fortunes as Crewe lost out by the odd goal in five last week at home to Rotherham.

Bradford’s upsurge in form cannot be put down to any one great player, it’s been a genuine team effort. Players like Rehman, Williams and O’Brien have provided a solid platform at the back for the likes of Osborne, Evans and Flynn to go forward with a bit of intent at the other end of the park.

Bradford have won 4 of the last 5 rounds of this fixture but did lose the last time these sides met at Valley Parade. Crewe will come out to attack as they only know how to play one way so I expect goals tomorrow. So as well as advising a bet on Bradford to continue their good form and take all 3 points I think the more than two goals bet is also a very decent shout.

My selections: Bradford to beat Crewe

Best odds available: 10/11 with several bookmakers including Coral

Other selections: More than two goals in the same game

Best odds available: 4/5 with PaddyPower.