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Mathematically. Wow, that’s a big word with which to start an article. I suspect it’s a personal best. Sorry, where was I? Oh,yes! Mathematically, only three men can prevent Rory McIlroy from winning the European Order Of Merit on the new Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai this week. The 20-year-old is in pole position to win the Race To Dubai, as the Order Of Merit has been re-branded, following a second to Frenchman Gregory Bourdy at the Hong Kong Open in Fanling, overtaking Lee Westwood, who had a bit of a nightmare in the former colony. Also suffering disappointment last week was Geoff Ogilvy, who failed to make an impact at the JBWere Masters in his native Australia so, with Paul Casey ruled out with injury, that leaves only Westwood, Germany’s Martin Kaymer and Ross Fisher (who did us a massive favour in the World Matchplay) as potential challengers to McIlroy’s claims to be European number one. The young Ulsterman, in only his second season on the European Tour, is a general 1-2 to collect enough prize money to ensure he finishes ahead of the bunch and a general 9-1 to end the year on a high by winning the Dubai World Championship itself. But nerves are surely going to play a part here. Westwood (a general 16-1) is vastly more experienced and, though his form has tailed off a little in recent weeks, he’ll be trying to exert maximum pressure on McIlroy with the big four, in the opening rounds at least, set to be out on the course at the same time. Kaymer must be cursing the fact (I nearly wrote kicking himself) that he missed two months of the season having broken toes in a karting accident but a win in Dubai, for which he is a general 14-1 chance, would still guarantee him top spot and his fate is still in his own hands, unlike Fisher (a general 20-1) who could still miss out if McIlroy or Westwood were to finish in the frame. And of course, there are almost 60 of the world’s best players out to spoil the party. Ernie Els has a fantastic record in Dubai and is back in form. At a general 16-1 he might be worth a saver, while Padraig Harrington is reported to have been thoroughly refreshed by a family holiday and will have some takers at a general 18-1. Trying to end the year with a bang, though, this columnist will be relying on Justin Rose. The Englishman has had a bit of an up and down season, dividing his time between Europe and America, but has been in a rich vein of form over the last eight weeks, recording under par 72-hole scores in every tournament he’s contested in that time, including a 17 under to tie for fourth place in last week’s Children’s Miracle Network Classic in Florida. Rose is another who likes the desert (he was second in the Dubai Desert Classic back in February) so I’ll be having an interest at 30-1 with boylesports.

The mere fact that Phil Mickelson is back on a golf course speaks volume about the character of the world’s best left-hander. Wife Amy was diagnosed with breast cancer last month and Mickelson immediately suspended his participation on the US PGA Tour to be by her side. Amy faces major surgery next month followed by a lengthy programme of treatment but she’s insisting that her husband try to carry on as normal in the interim, which is why Mickelson did his best to get rid of any ring-rustiness in last week’s St Jude Classic and why he’ll be lining up in this week’s US Open at Bethpage. The two-time winner freely admits that his putting still isn’t finely tuned, so it’s something of a surprise that he’s the one punters have been getting stuck into over the last 24 hours. A market drifter last week Mickelson, who turns 39 this week, is now as low as 10-1 in places but still be backed at 16-1 with Skybet to be what would surely be one of the most popular winners of a major since, well since Tiger Woods won last year’s US Open despite being in chronic pain with a knee injury. Woods, of course, is the man to beat on a course that always plays long but extrabet and betfair’s 2-1 is the biggest quote you are going to get about the defending champion which, as always with Tiger, will either be outstanding value or a criminally short price. Geoff Ogilvy is third choice in the betting at a general 20-1 but I’m of the opinion that Ernie Els is just too big at a general 50-1 for someone with his class. The ‘Big Easy’ looked in good order on his last outing in the Memorial, hitting the fairways and the greens and, though failing to make the most of his birdie chances, that will have given him confidence he can be among the leaders on Long Island. Els goes out with compatriot Retief Goosen (a general 40-1) and Mickelson in the first two rounds and if that doesn’t inspire him, nothing will!