Golden Boot

South Africa 2010 has been full of surprises so far. Who expected Italy to fail quite so badly? Who had tipped France to also crash at the group stage. We have learned that England are perhaps not as ready as people thought to challenge for the World Cup, and their failures in the group has landed them in a different quarter of the draw to which they were expected to be in, now making their work all that much harder. Fabio Capello’s men now likely need to go through Germany, Argentina and Spain before meeting Brazil in the final. If they had won their group, they probably would not have been really tested until the semi final stages. Europe only have six representatives in the second round, their lowest ever tally.

Latest England World Cup Betting Odds
England beat Germany: 7/4 at SkyBet
To Qualify v Germany: 20/23 at Boylesports
Wayne Rooney 1st Goal scorer v Germany: 6/1 at Coral
England to win World Cup: 12/1 at Bwin

What have we learned about the 2010 FIFA World Cup so far, in terms of World Cup Betting? One of the stand out factors of South Africa 2010, is the rise and rise of the South American teams. While Europe’s best have not been without their problems the South Americans are pushing on. The qualification process in South America was changed a few years ago, making it more competitive and changing the timing of everything so that teams stayed active. Previously, nations would go long periods without playing competitive football before the World Cup, but now, with all teams having to play each other home and away, the qualification process is long and arduous. The toughest in the world. The changes have appeared to have worked, as all teams from South America qualified for the last sixteen, with Uruguay, Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil all topping their groups. Chile qualified behind Spain to complete the full picture of the South American teams in the second round. Does that mean the shift of power is firmly in the grip of the South Americans? Well, Argentina and Brazil have both seen their odds cut. Where previously they were trailing Spain as outright favourites, they have redressed the balance are now on equal standings.

Both Brazil and Argentina have drawn a lot of bets after their group stages, with both sides looking very comfortable in their progression. There seems to be little to chose between them so far, and they should both be well into the mix at the final stages of South Africa 2010. So strong are the South Americans, that the Winning Continent has South America as favourites for Evens at ExtraBet. Remember that Brazil are the only nation to have won the World Cup outside of their own continent before. They will be strong favourites to do it again. The strongest outside bet seems to be coming from the Netherlands as they have consistently been narrowing their odds, and have easily looked the best team in Europe.

World Cup Outright Odds
Brazil: 7/2 at Bet365
Spain: 9/2 at SportingBet
Argentina: 5/1 at Victor Chandler
Holland: 15/2 at Bet365
England: 12/1 at SportingBet
Uruguay: 14/1 at William Hill
Germany: 14/1 at SportingBet

As for the chase for the Golden Boot hots up, Spain’s David Villa and Argentina’s Gonzalo Higuain are the strong front runners. Both strikers have three goals to their name, while Brazil’s Luis Fabiano is on two. The Uruguayans are really making a name for themselves, the World Cup’s first superpower nation is playing through the weight of expectancy and have already booked themselves a place in the quarter finals. Strikers Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez will always be in the mix in games, as they create their chances and certainly know how to take them when they come along. Holland’s Robin Van Persie is the next European in line, as he opened his account, while the superstar that is Lionel Messi is back in the running now after failing to register a goal, even though he has been incredibly influential and has had a wealth of shots and opportunities.

David Villa (ESP – 3 goals) – 11/1 at Ladbrokes
Gonzalo Higuain (ARG – 3 goals) – 7/2 at Skybet
Luis Fabiano (BRA – 2 goals) – 8/1 at BetFred
Luis Suarez (URU – 3 goals) – 10/1 at Bet365
Diego Forlan (URU – 2 goals) – 16/1 at Totesport
Robin Van Persie (NED – 1 goal) – 22/1 at Bet365
Lionel Messi (ARG – 0 goals)- 25/1 at Boylesports

Here are some stats to help you with your World Cup Betting:

Total Shots:
Lionel Messi = 20
Cristiano Ronaldo (POR) = 17
Asamoah Gyan (GHA) = 16
Clint Dempsey (USA) = 15

Team Top Scorers
Portugal = 7
Argentina = 7
Uruguay = 6
Germany = 5

Team Top Shots
Argentina = 64
Brazil = 57
Uruguay = 55
England = 46

Team Top Passers
Brazil – 1647 passes, 84% completion rate (Gilberto Silva – 211 completed passes out of 235)
Spain – 1630 passes, 80% completion rate
Argentina – 1468 passes, 78% completion rate
Germany – 1424 passes, 78% completion rate
Netherlands – 1346 passes, 74% completion rate
England – 1221 passes, 73% completion rate

Disciplinary
Chile – Y-10, 2YC-1, R0
Germany – Y-6, 2YC-1, R0
Brazil – Y-4, 2YC-1, R0
Spain – Y-0, 2YC-0, R0

2010 World Cup early betting (part 5)

We’re now at the business end of this tournament. Time to take stock of all the ifs and buts.

HOST country. Being the host seems to make a big difference to many countries. They nearly always UP their game. They have, in recent years, never failed to make it to at least the second stage. South Africa are on a decent run. True they haven’t beaten the top sides but you can only ask them to beat what is put in front of them. Which they have done.

A small investment on the HOSTS to qualify from the GROUP A ?

The bigger picture. I can’t find a reason to disagree with the bookies over their general range of odds, apart from a couple of teams.

England are still UNDER-PRICED. I think that they have a fair chance but unless they really gel I see them getting no further than the semis. A side hardly mentioned over the past few weeks is HOLLAND. We all know how temperamental this lot can be. Arguing amongst themselves and letting their heads drop at the first sign of trouble.However this squad appear to be getting along finely with each other. If it stays this way they can make a big impact on the outcome. Their group really shouldn’t give them any problems. Denmark, Cameroon and Japan.

4/6, ( 1.67 Betfair) to qualify for the QUARTERS seems sound to me.

Another team which appears UNDER-PRICED or OVER-RATED, you decide which, is ARGENTINA. They have a couple of NAMES in their side but were, on balance, lucky to qualify. On a good day I could see them get to the semis.

Germany and Italy appear to be a little jaded at present. The odds on offer probably say a lot of what many are thinking.

The two favourites, and rightly so, are SPAIN and BRAZIL. Spain at a general pre- tourney price of 4/1 just aren’t value. Brazil offered at around 8′s and 9′s are.

Taking into account previous WORLD CUP performances and the odds on offer I can’t find any possible UPSTART to spoil the party. The eight teams set for the QUARTERS using these two parameters are

1 SPAIN.
2 ARGENTINA and ENGLAND
4 BRAZIL
5 HOLLAND
6 GERMANY and ITALY
8 FRANCE.

Not really very inspiring if you’re looking for one to beat the book.

The team I’ll be looking forward to watching is HOLLAND. Can they bring back their TOTAL FOOTBALL of former times?

Looking at GOLDEN BOOT possibles, two facts stand out.

First you need to find a team that’s going to, at least, reach the semis. The losers still get to play an extra game, for THIRD PLACE.

Secondly check out the easier initial groups. No matter how hard some teams will try, they are really just making up the numbers. Think of New Zealand, Cameroon, Paraguay etc.

Past winners have scored as few as SIX goals throughout the tournament.

Argentina, Holland and Italy appear to have the weakest opposition for the opening series. This is were the known strikers can make hay. It’s after this stage that chances become harder to find. So hopefully your chosen striker will get a hatful as soon as possible.

Likely candidates for the prize are, in my estimation, 9/1 Van Persie (Holland), 9/1 Messi (Argentina), 12/1 Torres (Spain), 25/1 Giladino (Italy).

I have not considered Klose of Germany as his present form leaves a lot to be desired.

Before accepting any prices be sure to check thru’ a PRICE COMPARISON SITE, THAT YOU’RE GETTING VALUE FOR YOUR STAKE MONEY.

With some big names missing from some line-ups it will be interesting to know who will come out of the competition covered in glory.

Maybe Spain’s Andres Iniesta , for me the best engine-room man in the business. Always assuming that he’s fit. Or Brazil’s Lucio. A solid rock in the middle of the Inter Milan defence and just as valuable for his country.

The WORLD CUP holds a fascination for millions of people. It’s so easy to get drawn in to the excitement. Just make sure that you don’t go over the top and " invest" more than you can afford to lose.

GOOD LUCK.

Seeing as we’ve reached the midway point in the season, we thought it would be shrewd to quickly assess who the best punts are in terms of who will finish the Premiership season as the leagues most prolific striker. With 20 matches already played for some teams, we have three frontrunners setting the standards with 14 goals-a-piece; Jermain Defoe (Tottenham Hotspur), Didier Drogba (Chelsea) and Wayne Rooney (Man Utd). Each are plying their trade with a team currently occupying a top four berth, which just goes to show that having quality assistance makes a tremendous difference to a strikers goalscoring return.

 

English Premiership Top Goalscorers (As of 31/12/09):

 

Jermain Defoe 14

Didier Drogba 14

Wayne Rooney 14

Darren Bent 13

Fernando Torres 12

Louis Saha 10

Cesc Fabregas 9

Carlos Tevez 9

Gabriel Agbonlahor 8

Carlton Cole 7

 

 

Jermain Defoe – The former Pompey front man made his return to Tottenham nearly a year ago today and has proved a shrewd acquisition ever since, even if the Spurs fans didn’t know what they already had in front of their own noses. In his second stint at the club, Defoe has bagged 17 goals in just 24 appearances in all competitions. This season, Defoe has been the catalyst for Tottenham’s top four push and has scored exactly a third of their league goals this term.

 

Main Strength: Pace

 

Defoe’s biggest asset is his pace, without a doubt, but his all around striking ability has gradually improved since his spell at Portsmouth under the same manager, Harry Redknapp. His movement, both on and off the ball, has come on leaps and bounds, while his quick ability to read the play has been one of several positive reasons why Defoe has been such a handful for opposing defences during the early parts of the season.

 

Goals: 14

Starts-Sub: 16-2

Club: Tottenham Hotspur

Top Goalscorer Odds: 10/3 Boylesports

 

 

Didier Drogba – The Ivorian has not only been Chelsea’s best player this season but also probably the best performer in the league on current form, possibly even in Europe. When Drogba goes on one of his free-scoring, confidence beaming runs, the 6ft 2in powerhouse is close to unstoppable. After a difficult season last term, Drogba has come on strong in the early part of this season, but now his priority’s turn towards his International duties with the Ivory Coast in the African Cup of Nations. The former Marseille front man will be sorely missed as, like Defoe, Drogba has scored a large part of Chelsea’s goals this season and has been one half of a lethal striking duo involving himself and Nicolas Anelka. A partnership many thought would never work.

 

Main Strength – Strength

 

You don’t appreciate just what an athlete Didier Drogba is until you see him in person, strutting his stuff on that green acre of grass. His 6ft+ height enables him to tower over even the tallest of defenders but it’s his abundance of strength which makes him stand out from the rest and what makes him one of the most feared strikes on the planet. He has the strength to brush even the strongest and bulkiest of defenders aside and yet he still has the composure to finish with aplomb when given a sniff of a chance. Arguably the worlds best striker on present form but his International stint will stop him firmly in his tracks, especially if Ivory Coast do go all the way.

 

Goals: 14

Starts-Sub: 18-0

Club: Chelsea

Top Goalscorer Odds: 5/1 Bet365

 

 

Wayne Rooney – Just the name should be enough for all you Englishman and women out there. He is, quite simply, England’s brightest talent and he’s not only pivotal for his club, Manchester United, but even more so for England’s chances in the forthcoming summer World Cup in South Africa, although the conditions will be far from sun & shades out in Africa come July.

 

Rooney has been embracing our screens with scintillating displays ever since his arrival onto the scene at Everton, with his memorable long range strike against Arsenal catapulting him into the arms of Sir Alex Ferguson. However, his performances in a United shirt have confirmed what we pretty much knew all along, that Rooney is a world-class player. He has been United’s stalwart this season, driving the Red Devils forward whenever they have had their backs to the walls. Rooney never cowers away, he thrives on difficult situations and he’s actually been the only shining light in what has been a pretty poor United outfit this season.

 

Main Strength: Work Rate

 

Wayne Rooney has similar characteristics to Carlos Tevez, a former team-mate of Rooney’s. Whenever United have looked sluggish, which has been a lot this season, Rooney has picked up the pace by closing down every single opponent who dares to come into possession of the ball. Rooney just doesn’t know when to give in and you’ll often see him running right back to defence in order to make a tackle just so United can gain possession and start another offensive push. This sort of attitude infects those around him to do the exact same and try match his high levels. Those at the club strive to match Rooney’s work rate and high footballing standards, while those outside the club just want to be like him. What’s more, he is actually a decent chap off the field, although he’s like a possessed bulldog on it at times.

 

Goals: 14

Starts-Sub: 19-0

Club: Manchester United

Top Goalscorer Odds: 13/5 Boylesports

 

 

Darren Bent – Bent was the loser of the Tottenham camp under Harry Redknapp, and even with some newspaper columnists, but the England hopeful has put them all to shame with a superb start to the season which has seen the former Spurs man score 13 goals in 20 appearances for Sunderland, a club that were struggling to fend off relegation last season. Bent’s goals this term has enabled Sunderland to challenge for a top ten finish, and, outstandingly, claim the scalps of both Arsenal & Liverpool, with Bent scoring the only goal in the two 1-0 victories over both sides. His confidence at Spurs may have taken a battering but his morale will have sky-rocketed through the roof after a superb opening to the campaign with the Black Cats.

 

Main Strength: Awareness

 

Bent has always possessed a fair amount of pace and acceleration, whilst his finishing has generally been OK, but it was his off-the-ball awareness that tended to let him down as he didn’t have that predatory striker instinct which made the likes of Les Ferdinand & Alan Shearer so prolific in front of goal at club level. However, Bent appears to have got the knack of that old adage ‘being in the right place at the right time’ as time and time again this season, Bent ends up with the ball at his feet inside the penalty area. It’s not always about scoring the perfect 20 yard goal but more about sticking the tap-in’s into the goal, as those sort of goals come about more often, which is why Bent has prevailed this season.

 

Goals: 13

Starts-Sub: 20-0

Club: Sunderland

Top Goalscorer Odds: 7/1 SportingBet

 

 

Fernando Torres – Does this lad really need any introduction? The Spaniard stormed onto the scene with an unbelievable début season, scoring 24 in just his first ever season in the Premiership, two season ago, before enduring an injury ravaged season last term. To be fair, he has had his fair amount of injuries this season, with a hernia the latest in a long list of Torres injuries. However, even a cast-iron cast wouldn’t stop this lad scoring as he’s just unstoppable on his day, and he has his day just about every other week, which is why he’s just so deadly. This season, despite starting just 14 times for Liverpool, has notched up 12 goals, just two off the leaders who have played a good handful of games more than him. He narrowly missed out on the Golden Boot in his first season, but will be eager to go one better this season providing he eases off the injuries.

 

Main Strength: Finishing

 

I can’t think of a better finisher of the ball than Fernando Torres in today’s game. Stick the Spaniard in a one-on-one situation, heck even a three-on-one, and, chances are, he will skin both defenders and stick it away with ease. He makes goalscoring look so easy, with some composed finishing and neat ball work in tight spaces. That’s another thing with Torres, he not only has the pace to skin a defender but the skills to do so, as well as the know-how to beat a man to the ball from set-peices. You’d be hard-pressed to find a defender who hasn’t been made to look foolish by the Liverpool No.9, just ask Nemanja Vidic (Man Utd), who was supposedly one of the world’s best defenders last season, and yet Torres tore chunks out of him at Old Trafford, both last season and this season.

 

Goals: 12

Starts-Sub: 14-1

Club: Liverpool

Top Goalscorer Odds: 4/1 Coral

 

 

The four mentioned above are what I consider to be the main contenders for the crown. Carlos Tevez (Man City) could be a possible outsider but I can’t see him scoring enough regular goals to put him in the frame.

 

 

A few factors that could affect the outcome:

 

• Injuries (both to themselves and team-mates, as players like Defoe thrive on a quality supply)

• International Duty

• Discipline (Be careful of fiery characters; such as Wayne Rooney, who can lose his cool when things aren’t going his way which could then lead to a suspension)

• Form (For both the player and the team)

 

There are others, things like off the pitch problems with club debts, transfers, hiring and firing of managers etc. All of which could affect the overall morale of a camp, but they are the main ones that could come up with off the top of my head.

 

 

Our Golden Boot Pick: Fernando Torres

 

If he’s fit; he starts. If he starts; you’d fancy him to score. It’s as simple as that for us. Torres could go games without a goal and yet he would still have it within him to pull a hat-trick out of the blue. He’s immensely talented, one of the very best strikers on the planet when in tip-top shape, and an injury free end to the season would make him a very strong candidate for the crown as the two goal deficit he faces at the moment is nothing for him, especially now Drogba will miss the best part of January’s fixtures.

 

Odds: 4/1 Coral