November 26th, 2009 / cyril
Matches that draw at half-time but give a definite result at full time (part 3)
LE CHAMPIONNAT.
This is probably the "tightest" league out there.
Not one club is averaging 2 goals or over per game. This makes for "tight" games, obviously.
Recommendations can only be, "PROCEED WITH CAUTION".
France Ligue 1 overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| P.S.G. |
63,6 |
36,4 |
| TOULOUSE |
50,1 |
25,1 |
| RENNES |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| NANCY |
50,1 |
16,7 |
| LE MANS |
50,1 |
16,7 |
|
France Ligue 1 home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| TOULOUSE |
83,3 |
0,1 |
| MONTPELLIER |
80,1 |
20,1 |
| LILLE |
66,7 |
50,1 |
| P.S.G. |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| VALENCIENNES |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| LORIENT |
50,1 |
0,1 |
| LE MANS |
50,1 |
33,3 |
|
France Ligue 1 away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| ST. ETIENNE |
80,1 |
0,1 |
| RENNES |
66,7 |
50,1 |
| NANCY |
62,5 |
12,5 |
| P.S.G |
57,1 |
28,6 |
| BOULOGNE |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| BORDEAUX |
50,1 |
16,7 |
|
PORTUGAL SUPA LIGA.
The stand-out team here is Leixoes. At least as far as non-drawn games are concerned.
Sporting Braga are also worth a consideration.
Portugal Liga Sagres overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| OLHANENSE |
70,1 |
50,1 |
| SP.LISBON |
60,1 |
50,1 |
| LEIXOES |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| U.LEIRIA |
60,1 |
50,1 |
| SP. BRAGA |
60,1 |
10,1 |
| ACADEMICA |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| V. GUIMARAES |
60,1 |
40,1 |
|
Portugal Liga Sagres home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| SP. LISBON |
80,1 |
40,1 |
| LEIXOS |
80,1 |
40,1 |
| NAVAL |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| U. LEIRIA |
60,1 |
60,1 |
| V. GUIMARAES |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| PORTO |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| SP.BRAGA |
60,1 |
0,1 |
|
Portugal Liga Sagres away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| OLHANENSE |
100,1 |
80,1 |
| ACADEMICA |
80,1 |
40,1 |
| RIO AVE |
60,1 |
60,1 |
| U. LEIRIA |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| V.GUIMARAES |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| SP. BRAGA |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| BELENENSES |
60,1 |
80,1 |
|
NETHERLANDS. EREDIVISION.
Here draws, in general, are pretty scarce. Averaging a little better than one every five games.
Goal-less draws appear about once in twenty matches. Qiute a plus.
Sides like TWENTE and HEERENVEEN are worth consideration.
Netherlands Eredivisie overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| TWENTE |
50,1 |
14,3 |
| RODA |
50,1 |
28,6 |
| UTRECHT |
46,2 |
30,8 |
| HEERENVEEN |
46,2 |
15,4 |
| GRONINGEN |
42,9 |
28,6 |
|
Netherlands Eredivisie home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| RODA |
71,4 |
28,6 |
| NAC |
57,1 |
28,6 |
| TWENTE |
50,1 |
12,5 |
| HERACLES |
50,1 |
16,7 |
| WILLEM 11 |
50,1 |
16,7 |
|
Netherlands Eredivisie away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| FEYENOORD |
57,1 |
28,6 |
| UTRECHT |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| TWENTE |
50,1 |
16,7 |
| SPARTA |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| PSV. |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| HEERENVEEN |
50,1 |
0,1 |
|
SCOTTISH PREMIER.
This league has the MOST full time draws of the FIFTY-THREE leagues I studied.
35.2 %. ; With almost half of these being goal-less. Not really a league to have too much confidence in.
Scotland Premier League overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| FALKIRK |
75,1 |
41,7 |
| DUNDEE UTD |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| ST MIRREN |
58,3 |
33,3 |
| MOTHERWELL |
58,3 |
58,3 |
| HIBERNIAN |
58,3 |
33,3 |
| ABERDEEN |
50,1 |
50,1 |
|
Scotland Premier League home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| FALKIRK |
100,1 |
50,1 |
| DUNDEE UTD |
75,1 |
25,1 |
| ST. MIRREN |
57,1 |
57,1 |
| MOTHERWELL |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| KILMARNOCK |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| HIBERNIAN |
50,1 |
16,7 |
| HEARTS. |
50,1 |
33,3 |
|
Scotland Premier League away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| RANGERS |
75,1 |
50,1 |
| MOTHERWELL |
66,7 |
83,3 |
| HIBERNIAN |
66,7 |
50,1 |
| ABERDEEN |
66,7 |
66,7 |
| ST MIRREN. |
60,1 |
0,1 |
|
Remember the THREE basic rules:
DISCIPLINE
DISCIPLINE
DISCIPLINE.
Category: Betting Advice
November 19th, 2009 / cyril
Matches that draw at half-time but give a definite result at full time (part 2)
This time I’m looking at the main European Leagues.
The Spaniards of La Liga are just a little more than a quarter way into their season.
Tenerife look like a team to follow whether home or away.
Getafe an home and Valencia away are also worth keeping an eye on.
In Serie A I’ve only included teams with greater than 50% records. For expediency sake. The teams are a third of the way thru’ their programme.
Although Italian teams are renowned for their defensive qualities there are a couple of teams who seem intent on going for three points as often as possible.
In the Overall returns Cagliari stand out, at present. The Home records show AS Roma in a good light, with Udinese not too far behind.
Away figures show Napoli just clear of Cagliari, Sampdoria and Juventus.
The Bundesliga are also a third of the way thru’ their season.
Overall Berlin are the outstanding team.
At home there are a plethera of sides to watch. Koln, Berlin Hamburg and Dortmund.
Away records are once more dominated by Berlin, followed by Frankfurt.
Spain Primera Division overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| TENERIFE |
70,1 |
10,1 |
| XEREZ |
60,1 |
30,1 |
| VILLAREAL |
60,1 |
30,1 |
| VALENCIA |
60,1 |
30,1 |
| OSASUNA |
60,1 |
30,1 |
| ESPANYOL |
60,1 |
30,1 |
| GETAFE |
50,1 |
0,1 |
|
Spain Primera Division home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| TENERIFE |
80,1 |
20,1 |
| VILLAREAL |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| VALENCIA |
60,1 |
60,1 |
| OSASUNA |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| GETAFE |
60,1 |
0,1 |
| ESPANYOL |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| ATH. MADRID |
60,1 |
60,1 |
| ALMERIA |
0,1 |
40,1 |
|
Spain Primera Division away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| XEREZ |
80,1 |
40,1 |
| VILLAREAL |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| VALLADOLID |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| VALENCIA |
60,1 |
0,1 |
| TENERIFE |
60,1 |
0,1 |
| OSASUNA |
60,1 |
20,1 |
| MALAGA |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| SP. GIJON |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| ESPANYOL |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| BARCELONA |
60,1 |
40,1 |
|
Italy Serie A overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| UDINESE |
66,7 |
25,1 |
| CAGLIARI |
66,7 |
8,3 |
| SIENA |
58,3 |
25,1 |
| SAMPDORIA |
58,3 |
25,1 |
| LIVORNO |
58,3 |
25,1 |
| LAZIO |
58,3 |
41,7 |
| CATANIA |
58,3 |
41,7 |
| BARI |
58,3 |
50,1 |
|
Italy Serie A home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| LIVORNO |
100 |
33,3 |
| SIENA |
83,3 |
50,1 |
| UDINESE |
71,4 |
14,3 |
| CATANIA |
66,7 |
50,1 |
| A S ROMA |
60,1 |
0,1 |
| LAZIO |
57,1 |
28,6 |
|
Italy Serie A away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| CAGLIARI |
83,3 |
16,7 |
| SAMPDORIA |
66,7 |
16,7 |
| JUVENTUS |
66,7 |
16,7 |
| BARI |
66,7 |
66,7 |
| UDINESE |
60,1 |
40,1 |
| LAZIO |
60,1 |
60,1 |
| NAPOLI |
57,1 |
14,3 |
|
Germany Bundesliga overall draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| BAYERN MUNICH |
66,7 |
41,7 |
| KOLN |
66,7 |
25,1 |
| FRANKFURT |
66,7 |
33,3 |
| BERLIN |
58,3 |
8,3 |
| WOLFSBURG |
50,1 |
25,1 |
|
Germany Bundesliga home draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| B. MUNICH |
66,7 |
50,1 |
| KOLN |
66,7 |
16,7 |
| BERLIN |
66,7 |
16,7 |
| STUTTGART |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| LEVERKUSEN |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| HAMBURG |
50,1 |
16,7 |
| FRANKFURT |
50,1 |
50,1 |
| DORTMUND |
50,1 |
16,7 |
|
Germany Bundesliga away draws
| |
half time draws % |
full time draws % |
| FRANKFURT |
83,3 |
16,7 |
| WOLFSBURG |
66,7 |
33,3 |
| B.MUNICH |
66,7 |
33,3 |
| KOLN |
66,7 |
33,3 |
| SCHALKE |
50,1 |
33,3 |
| BERLIN |
50,1 |
0,1 |
|
Once again, do pay great attention to FORM. Recent and Historical. Also keep the figures up to date.
Matches that draw at half-time but give a definite result at full time (part 1)
Category: Betting Advice
July 15th, 2009 / cyril
As we are heading towards another season, full of hope, I want to look at league stats we can rely on.
In the dim dark days of the past, Home, Away and Draw percentages were accepted as being consistant at 50%, 25% and 25% respectively. But how that has changed. Just look at these figures. Home 38.6%, Away 34.6% and Draw 26.8%. Quite unbelieveable, espescially the first two. Now look at this set. Home 47.2%, Away 19.1% and Draw 33.7%. These are the present figures for Northern Ireland Premier and Brazilian League, respectively. How can we begin to compare them to the old long held figures? How can we best use them?
From the stats at my disposal, there are only eleven leagues with a home % of 50 or more. So obviously there must be some teams in there with considerable potential to be good HOME possiblities, and for us to be able to use them to our advantage. It may be coincidence but the three leagues with the worst HOMES record are Northern ireland Premier, Irish Premier and Irish Div. 1. Maybe it’s something in the air. For me these are three leagues to confine to the Out-tray. There is only ONE "big" league that can boast of a better than 50% HOMES RECORD. That is Italy’s Serie "A". even that is only 50.5%.
The DRAW STATS are in some instances encouraging. Where 25% was a long thought of expectation we now have a HIGH of 35% in the MLS. Seven leagues average over 30 % and a further 20 average over 25%. The thing that occurs to me is that we can begin to look for some sound DOUBLE CHANCE results with these figures. Whilst this may not appeal to some people, always remember a Profit is a Profit.
There is of course an alternative to this and that is to use these figures to find some good AWAY LAY bets. AWAY STATS start as low as 19.2% in the MLS. There are sixteen leagues where the AWAY average is below 25%. Another set of stats some bettors will find of interest will be the UNDER/OVER 2.5 Goals.
Pride of place goes to the Serbia Super League with 67% of games UNDER 2.5 goals. There are another eight leagues who boast 60% and over for UNDER 2.5 goals. At the other end of the scale we have ICELAND Div 1 with only 31.3% of games UNDER 2.5 goals. Therefore their OVER 2.5 goals is 68.7%. Altogether there are eleven leagues with over 55% of games scoring OVER 2.5 goals per games. The final set of stats is about GOALS PER GAME. Top of the table for GOALS PER GAME is the Austrian Bundesliga with 3.27 goals per game. Three other leagues boast over 3 goals per game.
Altogether thirty three leagues boast over 50% of games with more than 2.5 goals per game. As I’ve been checking thru’ fifty three leagues, that leaves twenty below 50%. This includes the PREMIERSHIP (2.48), THE CHAMPIONSHIP (2.45) and LEAGUE 2 (2.49). Looks like we’re losing out in the GOAL stakes.
Category: Betting Advice
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