In Play Betting

Finally, along came a quiet weekend where I could watch the early match on Saturday and strike some In-Play bets down at bet365. It was a rollercoaster ride, especially with some highly unusual results!

Portsmouth v Liverpool was the lunchtime kick-off, with bet365 going 8/13 about the visitors before the match kicks off. Pompey look an attractive bet at 5/1, although will they be even bigger when the game starts? Last season’s fixture between these teams finished 3-2, although all the goals were scored in the second-half, so I’ll be thinking about an Over 2.5 Goals bet if the odds start to drift above even money.

Thirteen minutes gone and it’s been a cagey match. Liverpool have forced corners in the 11th and 12th minute and bet365 now offer 1/14 about the Reds in the race to 5 corners market. With Portmouth playing only one man up front, they appear to have set up to try and contain their opponents. The draw on the half-time result market has gone into 4/5, with Avram Grant’s team looking as though they would be happy to get to the interval with the match all square.

Half an hour gone at Fratton Park and still not much happening. It’s a game where both teams seem preoccupied with not conceding, with Fernando Torres and Frederic Piquionne cutting isolated figures for their respective teams. The Reds have now drifted to 8/11 with bet365 and those that think Liverpool will win might be waiting until they hit even money. Meanwhile, Pompey have clawed it back on the corners battle and it’s now three apiece. They had been 10/1 not so long ago!

After 35 mins, Avram Grant’s team find the breakthrough and bet365 cut their match odds to 6/5. The draw is available at 2/1 and Liverpool are 5/2, although the Reds look demoralised by falling behind and it’s the home team who are pressing forward. As half-time approaches, it gets even worse for the visitors and all markets are suspended after Javier Mascherano’s reckless challenge on Tal Ben Haim. You can almost hear the traders frantically working with their calculators to price up the latest markets and Portsmouth are now 1/2 with bet365 to win the match. Liverpool have gone from a pre-match 8/13 to an In-Play 7/1, with the Reds having to reshape after the loss of their midfielder.

The game continues to drift away from Liverpool in the second half, with Pompey available at 2/5 in the 56th minute, 1/3 in the 64th minute and 1/4 in the 76th minute. The Reds simply don’t look like scoring and Frederic Piquionne puts them out of their misery in the 82nd minute.

It just goes to show that it often pays to go against the grain, especially as Liverpool rarely threatened when they went 1-0 down at Fratton Park, although the home team could be backed at odds-against until Javier Mascherano was sent off. Click here to check out the latest In-Play markets at bet365.

We keep hearing that betting during a football game is the thing of the future. While many of us tend to do our wagering before a match kicks off, an increasing number of punters instead like to wait until the action is under way before placing our bets. This could be because people want to experience the rush of In-Play betting or perhaps because they feel that watching the initial stages of a game will give them an informed opinion as to what’s going to happen. Either way, we ventured to bet365 on Sunday afternoon to see what the fuss was about.

bet365 are one of the best when it comes to live betting and it was no surprise to find around 30 In-Play markets on the Stoke v Portsmouth match as it approached half-time. Stoke started the match at 2.20, although a goalless first half at the Britannia Stadium saw their odds lengthen to 2.75. The draw began at odds of 3.40, although became favourite towards the end of the first half and was trading at 2.30. It had been a half of relatively few chances, although Kevin Prince Boateng had a penalty opportunity which was missed. Therefore, Pompey were on the drift to 3.60 to take the three points.

The In-Play console at bet365 presents information in a crisp clean fashion. There’s a nice graphic that features above the various City v Pompey markets, with a football pitch and the scoreline imposed over it. There’s a live videprinter which details the notable incidents that take place throughout the match. Goals are recorded, along with the player and time, while yellow cards, red cards, corners and substitutions are also mentioned.

All of this information is useful when it comes to placing your live bets and I go for Stoke to win at 2.75, with correct score bets of 1-0 at 4.00 and 10.00 that they land the game 2-0. There are also a stack of other betting opportunities, such as Player / Team to Score Next Goal, Race to 7 Corners, Total Goals and Method of Next Goal (will it be a shot, a header, a free-kick etc).

With twenty minutes left, I’m starting to get a little nervous. bet365 have moved the odds considerably since half-time, with the draw now available at 1.50. It’s a short price, although both teams are continuing to keep things tight and the crowd are baying for the introduction of Tuncay. Stoke are 4.33 to win the game, with bet365 offering them at 5.00 to score the next goal. Ricardo Fuller might have been around 7.00 to score first before the game started, although the Jamaican is 15.00 when he turns smartly and smashes the ball into the net for the opening goal.

At this stage, I realise that bet365 have audio coverage for the game and switch this on to see if I can get any more insight into what might happen. After the goal, nearly all the markets are suspended although quickly relaunched with a completely new set of odds. The corner count stands at four apiece and Portsmouth are 2.30 to have the most before the game is out. The draw is now available at 9.00 with the visitors 81.00 to turn the game round and win. However, Stoke hold on and I win my bets. The In-Play console brings up the Malaga v Real Zaragoza odds for the match about to start – this live betting craze could catch on you know!

Betting strategies (part 3)

Firstly let me explain how I view strategies I pass on to you.
Each one is what I call a "skeleton". It’s then up to each person who uses it, to add his own refinements. (Put some meat on the bones so to speak). I firmly believe that the more effort a person puts into his betting selections, the greater the satisfaction there is when pocketing those winnings.

The main thing to realise when betting on football is that you’re betting on GOALS. Or lack of them. Consequently it’s a MUST to know which teams are in scoring form. Allied to goalscoring is TIME. A good knowledge of these two is a must when you are setting out your stall for footballing strategies. Many strategies are based on both these fundamentals.
Only a few teams are able to score early in a match and then sit back and soak pressure for as long as needed.

IN-PLAY BETTING.
When a goal is scored there is usually quite a marked change in all the prices in all of the markets available to the in-play punter.
The changes are as you would expect. The scoring team’s price will shorten whilst the prices on the other two outcomes will lengthen. It’s not rocket science but you do need to be quick to take advantage of the changes.
One occasion when the price movement might not be so marked, is when the unfancied side score first. (A real bummer for the Lay the Draw punter).

TRY THIS.
A strategy that I’ve been looking at with great interest is Backing UNDER 2.5 goals before the K.O. Then BACKING Three goals or more as the game progresses.
Staking is based on the price of the UNDERS bet. Assume that you’re happy to make 10% on the bet overall. (I know 10% doesn’t sound much but that is a very acceptable figure to the small percentage of backers who make a profit, year on year).
To find your approximate stake.  Divide your stake plus your expected win, (100 + 10), by the odds offered on the UNDERS market. Stake plus expected profit 110 divided by Unders price, say 1.9 = 57.89. Round up to 58. That leaves a stake for the second part of the bet, of 42. Now to find an acceptable point to back the Three goals or more part of the bet. This time divide your stake plus profit by your remaining stake. e.g. 110 divided by 42, = 2.619. Rounded to 2.62. This is the lowest odds at which you will back THREE GOALS OR MORE.
You need to be very selective with your chosen games. Ideally you want teams that take time to get into their stride.
As I’ve mentioned earlier this is basic, it really does need your individual input.

LEAGUE RESULTS (Up to and including Saturday 22nd August).
I know it’s really early in the season but results so far are yelling out loud, "BEWARE".
The results in the five English leagues have been anything but "normal". Just check the 1 – 2 – X for each division so far.

                     1       2       X    (percentages).

Premiership         50      45       5     Sparcity of draws, too many aways.

Championship        34      26      40     A little overweight on the draws.

League 1            35      33      31     Pretty near to the theoretical spread.

League 2            49      34      17     Low on draws.
Conference.         44      24      32     A slight imbalance between aways and draws.
                   ——————–

 Average of 5       42.4    32.4    25.
 Leagues.

The Average of the Five divisions is not far from what can be expected but the individual divisions are well out of kilter. Make no mistake, they will come into line, sooner rather than later.
Having digested the above figures I would recommend giving them all a miss until some form of normality returns.

More about betting strategies

A Few Oddities.

How annoying can it get? Your team takes the lead and then throws it away. Maybe to lose or just to draw. Nevertheless it does happen quite often these days.
I find that it’s more likely to happen to an AWAY TEAM than a HOME TEAM.( However don’t let this put you off backing a home team). One team that springs to mind is Middlesborough. They seem to make a habit of it. So far this season, they’ve scored first in 10 games, but only won 5 of them. Man City are no better. Their record is identical.
In most major leagues, there is a small  number of who fit into this same category.

Obviously to take advantage of this happening you would need to be using a Betting Exchange (like Betfair) which has the game running "in play".

Once a goal is scored, the odds offered on both teams will change. Often dramatically. (I am amazed, at times, at the over re-action by punters when a goal is scored). Almost inevitably the team that has scored will now have odds below evens.
With the usual attention paid to recent and historical form, I feel sure that there is money to be made in this area.

The stats for teams who fail to score first can be used in a completely different manner. Let’s look at teams who have an indifferent record when it comes to taking a lead. With most teams, this will happen when they are playing away. Would you fancy a team in the bottom half of the league, away to a team in the top four, scoring first, when they only have a 25% record for scoring first. Surely a fine chance to punt on the, NEXT GOAL, being scored by the home team.
There are a few teams in each of the major European leagues who have records which cry out for you to back against them.
In Spain, OSASUNA have scored first in only 6% of their games. Italy’s Chievo, 18%. these are outstandingly bad records. However I would think any side with 30% or less, as first goal scorer, would  be a good bet, to concede first, especially when away from home.                               

Is it exclusive to the Premiership, or does the New Manager Syndrome work in any other leagues?              
‘Spurs brought in Harry Redknapp and almost instantly their fortunes took a big turn for the better. Sunderland parted company with Roy Keane and their two games since Ricky Sbragia took over, have yielded 8 goals and 6 points. Now we’ve seen Sam Allerdyce replace Paul Ince and immediately they reduce their negative goal difference by 3 goals. Not forgetting Newcastle United. Since they brought in Joe Kinnear, they’ve lost only 1 of their last 9 games.  "What is it that brings about such an upheaval in all known form?   Being a cynic of the highest order, I would think that any side being short of points should just get themselves a new manager. If only it was that easy tho’