Italy

It’s possible that the Azzurri will go the same way as France and fail to progress beyond the group stage of the 2010 World Cup. Who would have thought that the two finalists in 2006 would fail to win any of the first five matches between them?

Then again, it wouldn’t come as a huge shock if Italy sprang into life under Marcello Lippi and had another World Cup to remember. After all, the holders gradually got better in Germany four years ago and they retain many of the players who were triumphant back then. You can currently back them at 22/1 (Paddy Power) on the outright market and the Italians will simply be focused on winning this game and making it to the knockout stages where games are likely to be tight.

Ladbrokes offer 4/7 that the Azzurri are successful in Johannesburg and it would help if they stopped conceding sloppy goals. Against Paraguay and New Zealand, the team have found themselves a goal down due to an inability to defend from set pieces. Losing Gianluigi Buffon in goal hasn’t helped, although you can imagine that Lippi has spent a lot of time on the training ground to ensure that the Slovakians aren’t wheeling away in delight after scoring from a free-kick or corner. Sporting Bet offer 5/6 that Fabio Cannavaro and Co keep a clean sheet, while it’s tempting to back them to win to nil at odds of 13/8 (Ladbrokes).

After all, the Slovaks offered little in attack against Paraguay and we should remember that the latter were holding on a little towards their opening match with Italy in Cape Town. Vladimir Weiss probably realises that his team’s best chance of going through would have been to beat New Zealand in the opening game, a result that would put Italy under severe pressure. However, it’s hard to see them obliging with victory, even at odds of 6/1 (Victor Chandler).

They simply didn’t create many chances against south American opposition on Sunday and perhaps the Italian strikeforce will get things right, especially if the manager plays Antonio Di Natale from the start. It’s bordering on a crime that the Udinese hit man has had to make do with substitute appearances and he’s 11/2 (Ladbrokes) to show what the Azzurri have been missing by opening the scoring.

You can expect Vincenzo Iaquinta (6/1 Ladbrokes) to remain on penalty duties, although the impressive Daniele De Rossi also catches the eye on this market at 16/1 (William Hill). The Roma man loves to get forward and has scored seven goals for his country in 47 appearances.

2010 World Cup early betting (part 5)

We’re now at the business end of this tournament. Time to take stock of all the ifs and buts.

HOST country. Being the host seems to make a big difference to many countries. They nearly always UP their game. They have, in recent years, never failed to make it to at least the second stage. South Africa are on a decent run. True they haven’t beaten the top sides but you can only ask them to beat what is put in front of them. Which they have done.

A small investment on the HOSTS to qualify from the GROUP A ?

The bigger picture. I can’t find a reason to disagree with the bookies over their general range of odds, apart from a couple of teams.

England are still UNDER-PRICED. I think that they have a fair chance but unless they really gel I see them getting no further than the semis. A side hardly mentioned over the past few weeks is HOLLAND. We all know how temperamental this lot can be. Arguing amongst themselves and letting their heads drop at the first sign of trouble.However this squad appear to be getting along finely with each other. If it stays this way they can make a big impact on the outcome. Their group really shouldn’t give them any problems. Denmark, Cameroon and Japan.

4/6, ( 1.67 Betfair) to qualify for the QUARTERS seems sound to me.

Another team which appears UNDER-PRICED or OVER-RATED, you decide which, is ARGENTINA. They have a couple of NAMES in their side but were, on balance, lucky to qualify. On a good day I could see them get to the semis.

Germany and Italy appear to be a little jaded at present. The odds on offer probably say a lot of what many are thinking.

The two favourites, and rightly so, are SPAIN and BRAZIL. Spain at a general pre- tourney price of 4/1 just aren’t value. Brazil offered at around 8′s and 9′s are.

Taking into account previous WORLD CUP performances and the odds on offer I can’t find any possible UPSTART to spoil the party. The eight teams set for the QUARTERS using these two parameters are

1 SPAIN.
2 ARGENTINA and ENGLAND
4 BRAZIL
5 HOLLAND
6 GERMANY and ITALY
8 FRANCE.

Not really very inspiring if you’re looking for one to beat the book.

The team I’ll be looking forward to watching is HOLLAND. Can they bring back their TOTAL FOOTBALL of former times?

Looking at GOLDEN BOOT possibles, two facts stand out.

First you need to find a team that’s going to, at least, reach the semis. The losers still get to play an extra game, for THIRD PLACE.

Secondly check out the easier initial groups. No matter how hard some teams will try, they are really just making up the numbers. Think of New Zealand, Cameroon, Paraguay etc.

Past winners have scored as few as SIX goals throughout the tournament.

Argentina, Holland and Italy appear to have the weakest opposition for the opening series. This is were the known strikers can make hay. It’s after this stage that chances become harder to find. So hopefully your chosen striker will get a hatful as soon as possible.

Likely candidates for the prize are, in my estimation, 9/1 Van Persie (Holland), 9/1 Messi (Argentina), 12/1 Torres (Spain), 25/1 Giladino (Italy).

I have not considered Klose of Germany as his present form leaves a lot to be desired.

Before accepting any prices be sure to check thru’ a PRICE COMPARISON SITE, THAT YOU’RE GETTING VALUE FOR YOUR STAKE MONEY.

With some big names missing from some line-ups it will be interesting to know who will come out of the competition covered in glory.

Maybe Spain’s Andres Iniesta , for me the best engine-room man in the business. Always assuming that he’s fit. Or Brazil’s Lucio. A solid rock in the middle of the Inter Milan defence and just as valuable for his country.

The WORLD CUP holds a fascination for millions of people. It’s so easy to get drawn in to the excitement. Just make sure that you don’t go over the top and " invest" more than you can afford to lose.

GOOD LUCK.

Azzuri Aging But Lippi Relies on Experience

This is a highly anticipated match as the first round of games get underway at South Africa 2010. Italy’s major injury worry, midfielder Andrea Pirlo, is expected to miss the opening two matches for the Azzuri at the 2010 FIFA World Cup. The influential playmaker is on the sidelines of the team with a calf injury, and needs a little more time to get fully healed. Italy are of course, the defending World Champions at the moment, and much has been made about the age of their squad. Yes, they have some aging players, such as Buffon and Cannavaro, but they are not the oldest team at the tournament. Before we go any further, let’s put things into context here…

World Cup Average Ages of Squads (as of June 1st when Squads were announced – not counting changes since then)
England: 28.7
Brazil: 28.6
Australia: 28.4
Italy: 28.2
Paraguay: 28.1
Germany: 25.0 (third youngest)

Players Over 30 in Squad
Italy 9
Brazil 9
England 7
Spain 4

There, so no one has said anything about Brazil or England being too old to win the World Cup, so a lot of the criticism and fault finding when it comes to the Italians, is simply down to their style of play. Fair enough, their style is somewhat conservative when it comes to being open and free flowing, but it is a style, let us not forget, that has led them to be the second most successful nation in the World. Having been an admirer of Italian football for some time, it is clear to see that the Italians may be being overlooked, and that could be to the peril of a lot of other competing nations. Italy drew a decent group, not the easiest, as they will face some open, attacking side, but nonetheless, it should be a group which will give them good tests, and should they over come them, then it will make them stronger for the latter rounds. Perhaps one reason that Italy are not being tipped to defend their title, is that they will run into Spain along the way, if both win their group. While Spain are heavily tipped as outright winners, Italy perhaps, are the one team in Europe, which are perfectly set up to negate the powerful Spaniards. They may not be the oldest, but they are the most experienced squad in terms of caps won.

The Italians will be guided by Marcelo Lippi, regarded by many as the best tactical coach at the World Cup. While that tactical mind will be geared towards keeping the opposition out of the Italian penalty area, with a strong emphasis on the all important clean sheet, it does not lend to the most attractive football. Italian players are technically gifted in passing, but they tend to go looking for the perfect goal instead of being happy with a tap in from two yards. No, the Italians are not full of goals, and they have had a fairly understated build up to the World Cup, after winning their European Qualification group. They only won one of their five warm up matches, but when it comes to tournament football, their economical style is usually perfect for getting through groups. At the 2010 FIFA World Cup, Italy have been flagged along with France as being two of the top names which could be threatened into going out at the group stage. Questions have been raised about them, and rightly so. But how often do you see an Italian side fail, even when expected? Now think how many times an Italian side has pulled through at the last minute when the odds have been stacked against them. It doesn’t seem to matter if they go into matches as favourites or underdogs, they scrap and hold on to the end, and usually find a way. It is an admirable quality of the Italians. Their opening match will pit them against an attacking side in Paraguay, and their supposed aging legs will be tested.

Paraguay’s Barrios To Shine For Cabanas

One very interesting name to watch out for at this World Cup, is that of Paraguay striker Lucas Barrios, from whom, a lot is expected, as the ceilings for his potential are through the roof. The young striker, who was born in Argentina, was drafted in to the Paraguay squad, and has looked quite accomplished in the warm up matches Paraguay have played. Barrios has hit three goals in three games in his fledgling career for Paraguay. He forms part of an attacking Paraguay side, but one which is more balanced than the Paraguay sides of old. Coach Gerardo Martino put out a Paraguay side which stormed the early part of South American qualification, and has turned Paraguay into a force to be reckoned with. They finished just one point behind Brazil, level on points with World Cup 2010 Dark Horses Chile. Paraguay racked up some impressive wins over Brazil, Chile and Argentina along the way, and Italy should be aware of the threat of an upset on a chilly South African night.

Sadly for Paraguay, their top scorer in qualification Salvador Cabanas won’t be in the side. Cabanas, Paraguay’s great hope, was shot in the head in a bar in Mexico, and while he has recovered, clearly the World Cup was beyond him. That has allowed Barrios to stake his claim for his new nation, but the sensitivity over the plight of Cabanas, could well be the inspiration that his team mates in South Africa need to push on that extra step. Do Paraguay have enough in the tank to trouble Italy. Yes, unquestionably. You should see a very spirited and ambitious side, one which plays at pace, and that will naturally trouble the Italians.  Manchester City’s Roque Santa Cruz will probably be the strike partner of Barrios, with the physical presence of Oscar Cardozo awaiting his chance on the bench. But while there will be a lot of attention on the strikers of Paraguay, and what their pace can do against the Italian back line which may be lacking a yard of pace, their good defensive record should not be ignored either. Nine clean sheets kept through South American qualification is nothing to be sniffed at, and something the Italians themselves would admire. See here for more on the Italy v Paraguay match.

Italy v Paraguay Betting Odds and Stats

Last 5 Matches
Switzerland 1, Italy 1
Italy 1, Mexico 2
Italy 0, Cameroon 0
Italy 1, Sweden 0
Italy 0, Netherlands 0

Greece 0, Paraguay 2
Paraguay 2, Ivory Coast 2
Ireland 2, Paraguay 1
Paraguay 1, Korea DPR 0
Paraguay 1, South Africa 1

Last 5 Match Goals
Italy: 3 For, 3 Against
Paraguay: 7 For, 5 Against

Recent Stats
Italy: P50, W25, D16, L9 with a 50.0% win percentage
Paraguay: P50, W18, D14, L18 with a 36.0% win percentage

World Cup Stats
Italy: P77, W44, D19, 14, GF122, GA69
Paraguay: P22, W6, D7, L9, GF27, GA36

Last 10 Match Form
Italy: DWWDWDWDLD
Paraguay: WLLLDDWLDW

Match Odds
Italy to win: 6/5 at Bet365
Draw: 9/4 at SkyBet
Paraguay to win: 3/1 at William Hill

Asian Handicap Betting Tip: You may have seen weak defensive Paraguay sides before, but this time they are stronger. This is one of the first round matches which a lot of people have been looking forward to. Why? Because there is potential of a major upset, even though form suggests it won’t be much of an upset. Italy have inexperienced strikers, while Paraguay look much sharper and accomplished in that department. Can they really find the right balance between attack and defence to get in behind Italy? Yes, they will cause them scares and no reason why a draw wouldn’t be a fair result here. Therefore, Paraguay +0.5 at Evens with Paddy Power makes for some great value.

Barcelona splashed out £34.5 million to sign a 28-year-old striker earlier this summer, something which means that the Catalan club might get four decent seasons out of the player if they are lucky. However, David Villa is no ordinary forward and the former Valencia man looks an excellent bet to finish Top Goalscorer in South Africa this summer.

The Spain centre forward opened the scoring against Poland during his team’s final warm-up match of the season and Paddy Power’s 8/1 about him winning the Golden Shoe should be taken, especially as the Irish bookmaker are offering each-way terms of ¼ odds for the first five places. Villa has an excellent strike rate for his country of 37 goals in 57 appearances, something which makes him rightful favourite.

The other player that catches the eye is Robin Van Persie, even if the price has shrank from 22/1 to a best price 12/1 (Sporting Bet) in the past fortnight. While these predictions might have echoes of a previous article where Spain and Holland have been tipped on the outright market, the truth is that Arsenal’s flying Dutchman should get plenty of joy from matches against Denmark, Cameroon and Japan.

When you consider that Rafael Van Der Vaart, Dirk Kuyt and Wesley Sneijder will be providing a rich supply line and the fact that RVP has been banging in the goals during the warm-up matches, it still might be worth an each-way wager on the 26-year-old.

Brazil strikers are always worthy of consideration and the Samba Kings should have an enjoyable start to the campaign against North Korea. This makes Luis Fabiano (12/1 Paddy Power) and Robinho (33/1 Victor Chandler) worth a second look, especially as the latter is looking a far better proposition than Manchester City supporters will remember him during the final few matches at Eastlands. However, Dunga is a pragmatic coach who will be looking for a safety-first approach when it comes to matches against the Ivory Coast and Portugal.

Wayne Rooney was one of the top goalscorers during European qualification for the World Cup, with nine goals in ten matches for England. It’s clear that the Manchester United has a short fuse, although a strong case can be put forward that he’s worth a gamble at 11/1 (Paddy Power). It depends whether the Three Lions are the real deal or whether they flatter to deceive again, although Rooney should have some joy during the group stages.

There are players available at bigger prices who could fill their boots in South Africa and not just with their feet! Antonio Di Natale is one such forward and the Udinese man looks a big price at 50/1 (Sky Bet) to walk away with the Golden Shoe. He managed 29 goals to finish top scorer in Serie A last season and should enjoy the freedom afforded to him by New Zealand, who will struggle against the Azzurri.

Miroslav Klose won the Golden Shoe four years ago and is on offer at 33/1 with William Hill. While the Bayern Munich striker has spent much of the domestic season on the bench or injured, he’s often the saviour for Germany as he proved in Russia during qualifying.

The 2020 FIFA World Cup Group Favourites are well worth looking at in World Cup Betting Odds, especially if you are looking for relatively secure bets. The seeded team in each group, will naturally start as favourites to win their respective groups, but that will not bring a great deal of reward in terms of long odds. So, if you want to chance your arm a little bit more and discover some longer odds, as with any form of betting, you will need to look towards the outsiders in the group to cause a surprise upset and steal top spot. The top spot in each of the eight groups are all important, because it generally should mean easier opposition in the last 16 stage of the competition, where the knockout stages start and World Cup lifelines get no second chance.

Group A Favourites: France 11/10 at Ladbrokes
An odd group in the 2010 FIFA World Cup, simply because hosts South Africa were one of the seeded teams, but France are clear favourites to win it. South Africa will likely struggle to even get out off of bottom spot in the group, but France aren’t a particularly strong side in relation to other European teams such as Spain, Italy and England. The French though, who needed a qualification play-off to reach the finals, are expected to be strong enough to pip the group at a price around Evens, which is not particularly flattering to them. As unpredictable as they are, they could come under pressure from Mexico in particular who are around 3/1 depending on your online bookmaker to win Group A. Either one makes a decent return on such a restricted market.

Group B Favourites: Argentina 8/15 at ExtraBet
Clear outright winner in Group B should be South American’s Argentina. They had their troubles through qualification, and maintain an air of unpredictability with World Cup legend Maradona in charge, but they have remained around third favourites to win the tournament even when they were on the cusp of missing out on qualification. Why? Simply because they have a pure wealth of talent with the likes of Lionel Messi, Thiago Motta, Sergio Aguero, Diego Milita, Carlos Tevez and Gabriel Heinze.

Group C Favourites: England 4/11 at SkyBet
England are strong favourites to win Group C, and in all honesty there does not appear to be too much opposition to stop them doing that. This does mean that the odds on it happening are short, and World Cup Betting at SkyBet have England at 4/11 to win the group. The bookmakers have the USA as second favourites at around 5/1, and then Slovenia back out at around 10/1. This is the strength which England are meant to carry in the tournament and there is not much doubt that they won’t win the group.

Group D Favourites: Germany 10/11 at Victor Chandler
This could be a tighter group that the online bookmakers may suggest. Germany are the favourites, as they always seem to perform at tournaments, even when they go into them in less than ideal form. They are in decent shape, but perhaps not strong enough to win the tournament outright. Online bookmakers will attract plenty of betting on European counterparts Serbia though, as they look a great dark horse bet. Ghana, if they field a strong side could also pose a major threat to the European sides. Plenty of good prices here in Group D, which should be one of the most interesting.

Group E Favourites: Holland 8/13 at Bet365
The Netherlands had a flawless record in qualification and should have the class and technical ability to top Group E. They are relatively untested against major opponents, but still look a good strong side, certainly strong enough over their Group E opponents. If things pan out here as expected, there could be a close race for second spot between Denmark and Cameroon. Can either of them upset the Dutch? If it is going to happen, then it could well be Cameroon getting their act together on the day, and putting a disappointing African Cup of Nations behind them. They should carry more of an offensive threat than Denmark in challenging Holland.

Group F Favourites: Italy 1/2 at Ladbrokes
Defending World Cup Champions Italy have great pedigree in the touranment, and start as favourites to win Group F. Italy often get the job done, even when the odds seem stacked against them, and everyone is excpecting an adventurous teams to come along and beat them. Italy know how to win games, but they do have good teams in their group which could make it all interesting. Paraguay are a strong South American dark horse and look like a good outside bet to edge the Italians. Slovakia too proved technically apt during qualification, any could play their way into group contention.

Group G Favourites: Brazil 4/6 at BetFred
The Group of Death as the media quickly labelled this one. Brazil are favourites to win the Group even with a tough level of opposition. They could have drawn an easier group, but will they be too worried? Probably not, as this is Brazil and they look in good shape, particularly as an all round solid unit, and when you add that bit of Brazilian flair into the mix, you have a favourite. The main battle behind Brazil will be between Portugal and the Ivory Coast for second spot. That is the opening group fixture and it should be a cracker. Can Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal edge Brazil? Can Didier Drogba’s Ivory Coast top them both? Unlikely looking at the qualification process and the African Cup of Nations, but at around 4/1, either of them could make an interesting bet.

Group H Favouites: Spain 1/3 at Stan James
Outright favourites to win the World Cup, so naturally favourites to win Group H as well. It should be an entertaining group, as well as being something of a formality. Spain really are a class act and should win this at a breeze. They appear to have gotten over their hoodoo of blowing things on the big stage when they won the European Championships a couple of years ago. Chile look a good side too, but back at 5/1 to win the group, shows how good the Spaniards are.

In summary, if you were to do all of your World Cup Betting at Bet365, then you would be looking at something like this if you take these early odds on the Group winners. These are all favourites and therefore always represent something of a safe bet. France 10/11, Argentina 8/15, England 1/3, Germany 4/5, Holland 8/13, Italy 2/5, Brazil 4/7 and Spain 2/7. That is backing all favourites to win, and they could of course be combined into a multiple bet.

Wales will look to avoid any worries over finishing with the wooden spoon, by delivering where Scotland failed, in beating Italy. How times have changed for Wales though, as just two years ago the Welsh destroyed the Italians at the Millennium Stadium on their way to a Grand Slam. Now, Wales are struggling to pick up wins, their only success coming in a last gasp attempt against the Scots, a result they were lucky to escape Murrayfield with. Coach Warren Gatland must be one of the most frustrated coaches in the Six Nations, even more so than England’s Martin Johnson. Gatland has seen his side fall foul of ill-discipline time and time again during this Six Nations campaign, and they keep digging their own holes which they cannot get out of.

Wales have not played with any of the fluency and confidence they had during their Grand Slam winning 2007 and their defence has been leaking tries. It is hard to focus on a single area in which Wales have failed, as they have only produced fleeting glimpses of their true potential, and that has come when their backs have been against the wall. They managed an unlikely comeback against the Scots, but could not claw their way back from self inflicted deficits against England, France and Ireland. The Welsh simply need to reboot, and Gatland has tried to shake things up by giving teenage winger Tom Prydie a start, after only playing in three top flight matches for his club side Ospreys. Both sides will avoid the wooden spoon if Scotland lost to Ireland as expected, but that is not what either team should be focusing on.

Both sides need to be looking forward, and Gatland is trying to keep a lot of faith in the same players that have failed throughout the championship so far. They use the same rush defence as France, but their ability to execute it as well, clearly is not there, and it is the type of thing that looks horrible when it goes wrong, as it leads to mass exposure behind the gain line. Italy coach Nick Mallett has shaken things up after probably their worst performance in the past 12 months against the French last weekend. France won 46-20 in Rome last week, but Italy’s victory over Scotland has meant that they will probably miss out on the wooden spoon. Mallett had initially made five changes to his side, but Carlo Del Fava and Paul Derbyshire, who impressed off the bench last week, will both miss out on their starts through injury. Nonetheless, Italy have every right to go into this match full of confidence that they can pick up a second win. Italy have to learn their lessons and get back to their strongest assets, their defence. There was no real shame in being undone by the French, as long as they use it a learning tool.

For the Welsh however, more will be expected. Home turf and the opportunity to go out with a final flourish, will probably save some jobs. The changes the Italians have made are quite progressive ones in taking the team forward, the Welsh need to see their players take some responsibility on their own shoulders and do what the coach is asking of them. If they can keep the ball in hand, then the Welsh should be able to break down the Italians eventually, even if it doesn’t come early on when the Italians are fresh. The Italians are renowned for picking up wins away from home, and in all likelihood they will give a good account of themselves, but finishing as the brave but losing side again. The two sides have equally bad defensive records in this year’s Six Nations, but Wales should edge it with a little more firepower.

Wales v Italy Betting Stats

Wales: 13 Victories
Drawn: 1
Italy: 2 Victories

Wales biggest winning margin v Italy: 47-8
Italy biggest winning margin v Italy: 30-22

Wales average points v Italy: 33.38
Italy average points v Wales: 18.38

2009 Six Nations Result
Italy 15, Wales 20

Match Prices
Wales to win: 1/8 at BetFred
Draw: 33/1 at Bet365
Italy to win: 9/1 at SportingBet

France’s dreams of winning the Six Nations this year, was made a little easier, after they watched England fail to beat Scotland at Murrayfield. In a tense game, which lacked any attacking quality, England stumbled again, failing to bounce back fully from the defeat that was handed to them by Ireland at Twickenham in the previous match. England were hopeful of going to the final day of the Six Nations with a chance of taking the title, but the draw has left them needing a miracle from Italy. A win for the French over Italy, which is more than probable, means that even if they fail to beat England in Paris next week, the French can still take the title. The only team that can catch them now mathematically will be Ireland, who demolished Wales 27-12 on the weekend. However the Irish don’t have such a good points difference, which means that Les Blues should pick up the title, but they will want the Grand Slam.

Italy are actually fourth in the league, having beaten the Scots, and find themselves ahead of Wales on points difference, and should avoid the wooden spoon. The upset of them beating the powerful French is not very likely at all, and it should be an easy afternoon for the French, in taking a major step towards securing the title. French coach Marc Lievremont will likely see his nation extend their unblemished record against Italy in the six nations, and having won all their games this season, they have looked head and shoulder above the quality of everyone else. They will be deserving of picking up the Grand Slam if it happens, and there will, no doubt, be one eye on next weekend’s big Paris clash with England. Even if some of the meaning has gone, with regards to a Six Nations title showdown, they will still want the Grand Slam. Defeating England will always be an enjoyable moment for the French too. France beat Italy 50-8 during last year’s Six Nations campaign, and they are a much stronger side this year.

France to win: 1/41 at Coral
Draw: 66/1 at Ladbrokes
Italy: 33/1 at SportingBet

Here are some important RBS Six Nations Betting Stats, which can help when planning your betting strategies. This is a big weekend in the Six Nations, with three matches which are hard to call. This has the potential of being one of the most explosive weekends of the tournament so far.

2010 Results to date:
Ireland 29, Italy 11
England 30, Wales 17
Scotland 9, France 18
Wales 31, Scotland 24
France 33, Ireland 10
Italy 12, England 17

========================

England v Ireland Betting Stats

England to win:

Draw: 20/1 at 888Sport
Ireland to win: 20/1 at Blue Square

England have won 70 matches
Ireland have won 44 matches
There have been 8 drawn matches

Largest winning margin England: 6-46
Largest winning margin Ireland: 43-14

England average points v Ireland: 11.80
Ireland average points v England: 7.95

2009 Result: Ireland 14, England 13

===========

Wales v France Betting Stats

Wales to win: 9/4 at William Hill
Draw: 22/1 at Bet365
France to win: 4/9 at SportingBet

Wales have won 43 matches
France have won 40 matches

Largest winning margin Wales: 49-14
Largest winning margin France: 51-0

Wales average points v France: 14.74
France average points v Wales: 14.43

2009 Result: France 21, Wales 16

===========

Italy v Scotland Betting Stats

Italy to win: 15/8 at Paddy Power
Draw: 22/1 at Bwin
Scotland to win: 4/7 at Totesport

Scotland have won 10 matches
Italy have won 5 matches

Largest winning margin Italy: 17-37
Largest winning margin Scotland: 15-45
Italy average points v Scotland: 19.07
Scotland average points v Italy: 23.87

2009 Result: Scotland 26, Italy 6

Sunday sees England’s chance to secure a win away from home for Martin Johnson, as the relatively new England coach has seen his side suffer a lot on their travels. Now with England’s second game of the RBS Six Nations against the minnows of the tournament, England, who are determined to play an expansive game whatever the weather conditions are, look to keep up their challenge. The weather forecast is meant to be raining in Rome, which will make for difficult handling conditions. England will have watched France power their way to victory over Ireland, firmly confirming them as favourites to win the Six Nations. The fixtures for 2010 are favouring France, as they still have to play England at home on the final day of the tournament. If things go to plan, then that could be the championship, even Grand Slam decider in Paris.

But it will be one step at a time for Martin Johnson and his men, and it will start with a tough physical battle against Italy. England have gone for raw power up front, hoping to suck all the energy out of the Italians, so that their running backs can get into the game later. While England have not lost at Rome’s Stadio Flaminio, they were run very close to a defeat a couple of years ago, having to hold on for a nail biting finish. There really should not be any hint of that happening again this season, as England can seriously challenge for the Six Nations Crown. They have seen Ireland defeated, and the next crucial test will come in the third round of matches, when the Irish travel to Twickenham.

Jonny Wilkinson gets to team up with dynamic centre Riki Flutey in Rome, with Flutey the key players, in quite an offensive minded three quarters. With Matthew Tait playing in his preferred position, and Delon Armitage looking like a solid full back, England should have some good cutting edge if they can get the ball moving quickly. There may be defensive skill sets which will need working on, as highlighted when the Welsh staged a comeback at Twickenham on the opening day, but that could all come from confidence in going forward. Attack is the best form of defence, and that is exactly what the difference should be between the England and the Italians on Sunday. The Italians showed nothing offensively against a lack-lustre Ireland in their first match, and with the right platform from the powerful pack, England should stroll to victory and break their losing streak away from Twickenham,

Out of 15 matches against the Italians, England have won all 15, running up 630 points and conceding just 187.

England to win: 1/10 at Coral
Italy to win: 10/1 at SportingBet
Draw: 50/1 at Ladbrokes

England will be looking for a strong performance from their inexperienced pack in their second Six Nations match of the 2010 campaign. After opening successfully against Wales, England now need to build upon the foundations which were laid down in the match at Twickenham. It won’t be the same side taking the field in Italy, as Toby Flood will drop to the bench in favour of Riki Flutey, who was chosen to start against the Welsh, but picked up an injury prior to the match. New Zealand born Flutey, who finished last season’s tournament as joint top try-scorer, is the key man in the English three quarters, as he is widely regarded as being the inspirational flair player that England have so desperately been missing. He will add a dynamic running game, which not only means that he will add an extra individual spark, his presence will have a knock on effect on Jonny Wilkinson, who won’t have to sit so defensively deep and rely on his kicking game.

With Flutey being more offensively minded than Flood, it will allow the English backs to be more aggressive in attacking the gain line, and in order to feed him properly and get the best from him, he will be feed on a quicker, more advanced platform. It means that Wilkinson should have a lot more time on the ball, as long as the feeds remain quick coming from the break down. The match against Italy will be a physical test up front for England, as the Italians showed their muscle against Ireland in their defeat to the defending Six Nations champions. The battle will likely be carried up front for a large part of the early stages, as that is the kind of thing which can sap the strength out of the Italians, allowing England’s running backs to come in the game more in the second half.

After some doubts with knocks and bangs to a few key players, boss Martin Johnson will field much the same side as he did against Wales, with only Flutey and Dan Cole being tactical replacements. England’s prop David Wilson looked one of the weaker links in the game against Wales, and now he has made way for the exciting young prospect of Leicester’s Cole, who gets his first start in an England shirt.

As much as England would like to express themselves in their much promised role of running rugby, the weather in Rome is likely to hamper any plans of that. It has already been snowing, and there is heavy rain due on Sunday. There will be no room to cover the stadium, so fitness up front could be one of the key deciding factors in the game. England are going for power, as well as looking to improve the cohesion within the forwards. There is plenty of experience on the bench for Johnson to call on in the latter stages, and it is hard to see Italy posing any real threat to the English, if England stick to the plan and don’t get complacent. While the Twickenham victory over Wales was comprehensive on the score board, they still let Wales back into the game when they should have been dead and buried, which took the gloss of the result a little bit.

Italy still look to have to come quite a way when trying to get points on the board in the Six Nations. Italian coach Nick Mallett has made a couple of changes from the Irish game, in which the Italians lacked any real impetus going forward, and sucked Ireland into a dour, uneventful second half. The Italians are yet to beat England in the Six Nations, despite coming close in 2008 when England were arguably going through one of their worst spells of international rugby. Johnson’s hopes is that he can drag his nation back to the top of the World, buy building a team which can play with freedom in the backs, and bond together in the inexperienced front row.

Match Prices
England to win: 1/9 at Blue Square
Draw: 40/1 at Bet365
Italy to win: 10/1 at Sporting Bet