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Wednesday is FA Cup replay day, with five Premier League teams looking to secure places in the Sixth Round. There are four matches occurring, which we shall cast a firm betting eye over here, to find the best online betting prices and betting strategies. Some of the results from the Fifth round were surprises which has led to these matches being played, but now it is time for the crunch, and it is where quality usually shines through.

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
The battling Championship strugglers put in another good FA Cup performance, enjoying their football away from the basement of the Championship. Boss Neil Warnock has a fight on his hands, and he has been linked with a move away from the club to join QPR, who are only four points ahead of Palace, who are third from bottom. They have suffered two defeats in the league since the draw with Aston Villa, and things aren’t looking too rosy for them at the moment. It took a late equaliser from the Premier League side to stay in the competition. The replay, although it is better than  being knocked out, isn’t what boss Martin O’Neill would have wanted. He now has to juggle his side ahead of Sunday’s big date in the Carling Cup final against Manchester United. It should be less of a daunting task taking on Palace at Villa Park, and O’Neill will probably rest some key players ahead of the final, most notably Gabriel Agbonlahor. Villa were rampant in their 5-2 win over Burnley on the weekend, which kept them in the race for fourth spot in the Premier League, and should not have too much trouble at home at the lowly Championship side.
Aston Villa to win: 4/11 at Bet365
Draw: 4/1 at Ladbrokes
Crystal Palace to win: 17/2 at SkyBet

Asian Handicap Betting Advice: The underdogs had their day in the first match, which was a cracker, by the way. Unlikely to get as close to Villa this time around, so Villa with a good minus should do the trick on the betting strategy.
Crystal Palace +1.25 Asian Handicap: 43/40 at Bet365

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Stoke v Manchester City
This replay comes with the reward of taking on the best team left in the competition, Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. City were expected to beat Stoke, but a dour 1-1 draw against them, highlighted the fact that City are probably still off the pace when it comes to being a strong, consistent team. Still, they are heading in the right direction, just not there yet. Another miserable draw against Liverpool on the weekend showed that. Without Tevez they lack a bit of a spark. Stoke on the other hand are simply making a nuisance of themselves this season, playing not too pretty football, but getting the results that will keep them in mid table safety, and away from relegation. They sneaked a late winner against Portsmouth on the weekend, and while the FA Cup isn’t a priority for manager Tony Pulis, it will do wonders for their season. Premier League survival and an FA Cup Quarter Final appearance should be considered a success. They are unbeaten in 2010, which is quite an achievement, and knocked Arsenal out of the competition along the way. They are a difficult team to play against, more than being a classy team. City have fallen back into ways of drawing games, with their last three matches ending in ties. Boss Roberto Mancini won’t be fancying this one much with the pressure mounting. He has selection problems beyond missing Tevez, and that could just tip the balance in Stoke’s favour at home.
Stoke to win: 2/1 at SkyBet
Draw: 12/5 at Totesport
Manchester City to win: 6/4 at BetFred

Asian Handicap Betting Advice. Another drawn match is favourite here, so there could well be extra time on the cards. There will be big questions over whether Man City have the fight to deal with a match like this, especially missing players, so leaning towards Stoke for that reason, makes for a good betting strategy. Even if it is a draw no bet for the 90 minutes.
Stoke +0.5 Asian Handicap: 5/6 at Paddy Power

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Tottenham v Bolton
The second of Wednesday night’s all Premier League showdowns in the FA Cup. This was a bit of a non-starter at the Reebok at the first attempt, but Harry Redknapp will be happy enough that his Spurs side are back at home. Lower teams often raise their games for the excitement of the first game in the FA Cup rounds, and like Palace, Bolton probably had their big chance to progress when they were leading in the first leg. Tottenham looked pretty slick in their 3-0 away win at Wigan on the weekend, a bit of a return to form after something of a mini slump. They are still clinging onto fourth spot in the league, and they do of course have a rich history in the FA Cup. Bolton are still wedged down in the relegation zone, and that could favour Tottenham as well, as Owen Coyle may decide to rest important players, putting preference on Premier League survival instead. They already have some selection problems through injury, so it could be a weakened side which turns out at White Hart Lane. The winner gets an away tie at Fulham, and more likely than not, that should be Spurs. The London club were delivered some bad news about England winger Aaron Lennon though, who went for a scan after recuperating from injury, only to be told he has another groin injury that needs attention.
Tottenham to win: 2/5 at 888Sport
Draw: 4/1 at Bet365
Bolton to win: 17/2 at SkyBet

Asian Handicap Betting Advice: On paper, everything leans towards Tottenham, and the weight of Premier League survival could actually hamper Bolton’s chances in this. The weekend display saw Spurs return to a bit of form, and therefore confidence, and will be a stronger side.
Bolton +1.25 Asian Handicap: 11/10 at Stan James

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West Brom v Reading

An all Championship clash, between high flying West Brom and lowly Reading, who have been the fairytale story of the FA Cup this season. Reading’s season has been all about survival in the Championship, but the highlights have come from knocking Liverpool out of the FA Cup at Anfield, and then following that up with a win over Premier League side Burnley. They had their noses in front against West Brom in the first match, but just couldn’t hold on against their strong division rivals. They should take heart from their previous FA Cup performances, that they are more than possible of going out and causing another upset. West Brom are battling for automatic promotion back to the Premier League. After briefly dislodging Newcastle from first place, they have failed to pick up a win in their last two games, have fallen six points back of the leaders. A little wobble, but they are still a good team in a strong looking Championship this season.
West Brom to win: 3/4 at Expekt
Draw: 11/4 at SkyBet
Reading t win: 4/1 at Bet365

Asian Handicap Betting Advice. This game will send a Championship side through to the last eight, and there is a sneaky feeling that Reading could upset the apple cart again. They will be buoyed up and going for it. Albion beat Reading 3-1 in league at the Hawthorns earlier in the season, but this is the FA Cup, and Reading seem to been blessed with the golden touch in it this season. Therefore, leaning towards them in the plus for betting strategies, could be the way to go.
Reading +0.5 Asian Handicap – 5/4 at Bet365

Sunday’s big Premier League game is between the two main forces in the race for fourth spot in the league, which equates to that all important Champions League spot next season. Usually this spot would be reserved for Liverpool, but this season they are having to work extremely hard to get it. After crashing out of the Champions League this season, having to make inroads in Europe in the Europa League, Liverpool’s Champions League participation for next season is in serious jeopardy. They are coming under fire from not only Sunday’s opponents, but from Tottenham and Aston Villa as well, who are all in the hunt. Sunday’s game against Manchester City throws up the prospect of them falling four points behind fourth placed City in the race for the Champions League.

Add to that equation the fact that Manchester City will still have a game in hand over Liverpool, and the task will start looking monumental. Reds boss Rafa Benitez has made a promise to the Anfield faithful, that he will get Liverpool into fourth place, after enduring a season which has been full of disappointments. The Europa league is all that the Reds have to play for this season in terms of silverware, and it has been quite a fall from grace for them, with Benitez having to shoulder most, if not all of the blame. Liverpool have lacked a cutting edge going forward, even when Fernando Torres has been fit, for the level of support around him and Steven Gerrard, just has not been up to par. Still, they are battling on and trying to get something out of what is left in the season.

Liverpool beat Europa League opposition Unirea Urziceni in midweek, by a 1-0 scoreline. The match was uneventful and dour, largely thanks to the visitors playing ten men behind the ball, and Liverpool lacking the creativity to do much about it. They lost their last league outing, which was a trip to the Emirates against Arsenal, and that allowed Manchester City to sneak ahead of them in midweek. This is an extremely crucial match in the scheme of things, as with Aston Villa and Tottenham both in action on Sunday as well, the standing could take on a major shift, with Liverpool finding themselves down in seventh place if things don’t go their way. But they can take heart, that it is a rare occasion when Manchester City pop up with a win over the Reds.

Manchester City have had their problems this season, after spending big in the summer. They have seen the departure of manager Mark Hughes, with replacement Roberto Mancini looking to really shake things up at the club with a strong start. They have fallen back into less than impressive ways again though, looking unconvincing in their abilities to win matches. They drew with Stoke in the FA Cup, and then tied with them again a few days later in the league, and that is exactly the type of opposition which they need to be ruthless against. Now, with suspensions, injuries and personal lives stacking up against them, they need to dig deep to get back to fluent, convincing, winning ways. A win for City on Sunday, could be a huge turning point in the season.

There have been rumours of a bust up between boss Mancini and striker Craig Bellamy, but Mancini may need him for Sunday’s game, as star player Carlos Tevez is back home in Argentina looking after family affairs with the birth of his daughter. With the fuss surrounding full back Wayne Bridge in the John Terry scandal, recent signing Patrick Vieira’s charge of violent misconduct, and the inability to get Robinho up to scratch, it appears that Mancini really needs to tighten the ship and get some team spirit and belief going. They do have one good thing in their favour, and that is their great home form this season. Like league leaders Chelsea, they have yet to lose a home game at Eastlands this season, and have lost fewer than Arsenal and Manchester United, who are above them in the league. In contrast to Sunday’s opponents Liverpool, who have lost 8 times in the league this season, City have only lost four times, all on the road. But they have let far too many chances slip though, and have piled up the drawn matches under Mark Hughes, which could cost them dearly in the end.

BETTING STATS

Last 5 Head to Head
Liverpool 2, Man City 2
Liverpool 1, Man City 1
Man City 2, Liverpool 3
Liverpool 1, Man City 0
Man City 0, Liverpool 0

Last 5 Match Goals
Man City: 6 For, 5 Against
Liverpool: 5 For, 1 Against

Last 10 Form
Man City: W6, D1, L3
Liverpool: W6, D2, L2

Win Percentage
Man City have a 75.0 win percentage at home
Liverpool have a 30.8 win percentage away from home

Match Prices:
Man City to win: 13/8 at Victor Chandler
Draw: 23/10 at Totesport
Liverpool to win: 2/1 at SkyBet

Asian Handicap Betting Advice: This looks to have draw written all over it. Liverpool have developed of knack of picking up vital wins against the teams immediately around them, and their defence will keep them in with a good chance. With no Tevez to inspire them, City may struggle again for fluency, and it could all peter out into a non-event. A draw wouldn’t be a disaster for either side, neither would it be satisfactory. If anything, backing City, simply because of their great home form, would be the way to lean in betting.
Manchester City -0.5 Asian Handicap: 6/4 at Paddy Power

The draw for the Sixth Round of the FA Cup has thrown together two of the remaining favourites. Manchester City, if they can overcome Stoke in their Fifth Round Replay, will have to travel to Stamford Bridge in the Quarter Finals to take on favourites Chelsea. This will no doubt have extra spice in the media, as it could bring together John Terry and former team mate Wayne Bridge, who are at the centre of all the media circus. Only one of the four Quarter Final ties are actually known, as there are four replays waiting to come.

With Portsmouth’s late goal show against rivals Southampton seeing them into the Quarter Finals, which was a nice bit of relief from all of the terrible troubles they are in financially, they have earned themselves an all Premier League tie against Birmingham. Alex McLeish’s Birmingham battled to a 2-1 win over Derby to earn their Quarter Final place. Bolton and Tottenham will have to go at it again, after an entertaining game ended in 1-1 tie at the Reebok. The high flying Spurs had to come from behind to keep their FA Cup dream alive, and England striker Jermain Defoe duly shot his team to a replay. Spurs had a big chance to win it, with Tom Huddlestone having a penalty saved by Bolton keeper Jussi Jaaskelainen.

Crystal Palace were devastated when Aston Villa snuck a late equaliser, after wrongly being awarded a corner. Palace boss Neil Warnock, not known for his diplomacy was absolutely fuming at the linesman who awarded the erroneous corner Villa. The Premier League side were really on the ropes and looking to be about to make an exit in a fantastically high paced cup tie, but were handed a lifeline in the dying moments. The replay won’t be too bad a thing for Palace, as they have their financial worries after going into administration. If they can get past Villa, then a tie against a fellow Championship side will await them.

The all Championship tie between West Brom and giant-killers Reading ended in a two all draw, while Premier League side Fulham routed League Two side Notts County 4-0. But the big match of the Quarter Finals will be Chelsea v Manchester City if that happens. City, who were favourites to beat Stoke, will need to raise their game though. Despite starting brightly at home, they simply drifted out of the game, which again highlights the fact that boss Roberto Mancini still has a lot of work to do in order to make the side competitive on a regular basis. The draw for Stoke was fully deserved as Ricardo Fuller popped up to head the equaliser. The glamour tie against Chelsea awaits the winner of the replay.

FA CUP QUARTER FINAL DRAW
Chelsea v Manchester City/Stoke
Fulham v Bolton or Spurs
Reading or West Brom v Crystal Palace or Aston Villa
Portsmouth v Birmingham

FA Cup Outright Odds
Chelsea – 11/8 at Victor Chandler
Aston Villa – 6/1 at Ladbrokes
Tottenham – 13/1 at SkyBet
Man City – 10/1 at Blue Square
Birmingham – 12/1 at Blue Square
Fulham – 14/1 at Ladbrokes

Manchester City squandered a golden chance to take control of the race for fourth place in the Premier League on the weekend, as they crashed away to a bustling Hull City side. Second from bottom Hull had earned themselves some plaudits, holding league leaders Chelsea to a draw during midweek, and their hopes of surviving in the Premier League were given a great boost by turning over Roberto Mancini’s Manchester City. That was Hull’s first victory in the league for 11 games, and those vital three points saw them shoot up the table to 14th, three points out of the drop zone. Four points from their last two games will have renewed hopes that they will be a Premier League outfit next season.

For Manchester City, there will be questions asked about this latest upset. It came just over a week after they were dumped out of the Carling Cup semi final by Manchester United, and Saturday’s three points will enact further calls from Mancini for his players to dig a little deeper. Still, Manchester City are not that badly positioned, just three points out of fourth place, with two games in hand still over Liverpool who occupy that precious spot. While City have found a new leash of life under Italian boss Mancini, they cannot start getting complacent that they will have their best finish for years. There is a lot of work to be done until the end of the season, and with Liverpool, Tottenham and Aston Villa all in the hunt for the Champions League spot, nothing can be taken for granted.

Although Mancini has reported players being a bit tired, City do have a busy period. With a full list of midweek games this week, back to back games against Stoke will follow. Man City plays hosts to Stoke in the FA next Saturday, before visiting their opponents just three days later. The City fans have been injected with a lot of hope after a summer of big spending, and while the FA Cup remains a very viable proposition for them, with three of the big four having fallen by the wayside, City’s main focus should remain on fourth place. That would really earmark a new era of progress for the blue side of Manchester, who have long lived in the shadows of their Old Trafford neighbours.

The will get the chance against another of the league’s strugglers, as they take on Bolton on Tuesday. Bolton boss Owen Coyle has his work cut out to save his new team from relegation, as they are just one point out of the zone. After successfully beating his old club Burnley, Bolton have only picked up one point out of their last two games. Things are so tight down the bottom that every point is vital, and Bolton may look to Hull for inspiration. Their good work against top opposition, can be repeated, and they need it to be, if they are going to secure their Premier League future.

BETTING STATS (League Only)

Last 5 Head to Head
Bolton 3, Man City 3
Man City 1, Bolton 0
Bolton 2, Man City 0
Bolton 0, Man City 0
Man City 4, Bolton 2

Last 5 Match Goals
Man City: 10 For, 5 Against
Bolton: 3 For, 8 Against

Last 10 Form
Man City: W6, D1, L3
Bolton: W2, D4, L4

Win Percentage
Man City have a 72.7 win percentage at home
Bolton have a 20.0 win percentage away from home

Match Prices
Manchester City to win: 5/11 at Coral
Draw: 10/3 at SkyBet
Bolton to win: 8/1 at Victor Chandler

Betting Advice: City should win this, as Bolton are struggling for goals and points. There is a lot of work to be done at the back, but they also need to find ways to find the back of the net. It will be tough against a City side, who, as a whole have looked pretty solid for most of the season. A good Asian Handicap in favour of Bolton, could work here.
Bolton +1.75 Asian Handicap: 10/11 at Victor Chandler

There is a breakaway leader at the top of the scoring charts, with Wayne Rooney’s recent four-goal salvo against Hull shooting him clear of his nearest competitors. With the England striker scoring at the Emirates on Sunday, the bookmakers aren’t expecting anyone to usurp the Manchester United striker, with Coral prepared to offer a best price 4/9 ahead of the Red Devils’ encounter with Portsmouth on Saturday. It’s in this match where the 24-year-old could effectively win the contest, although stranger things have happened than someone bridging the five-goal gap at the top.

Especially when you consider that Didier Drogba has fifteen goals to his name this term after scoring the equaliser at the KC Stadium on Tuesday night. The Ivorian has a phenomenal strike rate in a blue shirt and Stan James’ 8/1 could be an interesting price when you consider he’s playing against favourite team Arsenal on Sunday! The bookmakers are still also offering each-way betting on the contest, with firms like bet365 offering 1/3 odds for the first two places and Sporting Bet offering 1/5 odds for the first three places.

Indeed, it’s crying out for a bookmaker to offer a “without Wayne Rooney” market, with Jermain Defoe (7/1 bet365) also having fifteen goals to his name and Darren Bent (20/1 bet365) having scored fourteen despite playing for a Sunderland team who have been struggling for months. Fernando Torres was the original favourite on this market at odds of around 4/1 and, while the Spaniard got off to a flying start for Liverpool, it was almost inevitable that injury would halt his in his tracks this term. Definitely one to swerve at short odds next term if he’s still playing at Anfield!

Meanwhile, there is a big chase for fourth place in the Premier League this term, something which would provide access to next season’s Champions League. There is a massive financial gulf between qualifying for Europe’s blue riband club competition and the Europa League, with Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham and Aston Villa all pushing hard to be in the top quartet. It’s Spurs who currently occupy that golden fourth place, with bet365 offering 10/3 that they are rubbing shoulders with the likes of Barca and Real next term.

However, the bookies think it’s more likely to be Manchester City who take their place among Europe’s elite. They certainly have the biggest finances, although they look defensively suspect away from home and odds of 10/11 (Paddy Power) that they snare a place in the Champions League might not be to everyone’s liking. Liverpool are still realistic contenders, having finished in the top four for several consecutive seasons and bet365 offer 15/8 that they feature in next season’s competition. Aston Villa might be the outsiders, although they have a strong first team and the backers of the 9/2 (Sporting Bet) might just have themselves a value bet.

Arsenal’s recent strong run of form has seen them reach the top of the table, although the bookmakers are in little doubt as to which team are likely to finish as champions. Despite the Gunners occupying first place, firms such as Ladbrokes and bet365 are prepared to offer 3/1 about Arsene Wenger’s team winning their first title since 2004. This is despite the North London bridging a gap of eight points that existed between them and Chelsea at the end of October when the Blues won 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium.

Indeed, Carlo Ancelotti’s team are no better than 4/5 (Sky Bet) to regain top spot in the Premier League and remain there until the end of the season. Chelsea started the season in blistering fashion, although away defeats to Aston Villa to Wigan proved that this team weren’t invincible. Although they showed little sign of missing their African Nations Cup participants when beating Sunderland 7-2 last Saturday, the Blues have some tricky fixtures with Arsenal visiting Stamford Bridge on 7th February. Meanwhile, the title favourites have consecutive away trips to Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester United in April and May.

Manchester United are expected to beat Hull City on Saturday and actually leave Chelsea sitting in third place. Although the Red Devils have been wobbling in the past couple of months, it’s clear that Sir Alex Ferguson has experienced big problems with injured defenders and it will be with a sigh of relief that Rio Ferdinand will return to the back line.

With Nemanja Vidic also expected back in the team, it’s possible that the champions could enjoy a run of clean sheets that occurred last season from Boxing Day until February. Something like this would surely put them in pole position and bet365 and Sporting Bet’s 3/1 that they manage a fourth consecutive title could be the value proposition. However, there is a nagging doubt that this United team just can’t reach the same heights that they did when Cristiano Ronaldo was in the team.

Meanwhile, the race for fourth place in the Premier League is hotting up, on the basis that the above trio occupy the top three places. Many of the top bookmakers offer odds on which team will land a top four finish and Manchester City are the 6/5 favourites (Ladbrokes). Although Roberto Mancini’s team are level with Tottenham and a point better off than Liverpool (having a game in hand on both teams), their recent defeat at Everton suggested defensive concerns which could hinder their ambition.

In addition, Liverpool look like they have created a siege mentality and some might think 7/4 (bet365) is a big price about a team that feature in the top four of the Premier League so regularly. With key players to return from injury and the luck to go their way at some point, perhaps they will edge it. Then again, Tottenham could usurp both teams, with the return of Aaron Lennon clearly crucial to their hopes of making the top four. Ladbrokes make them 7/2 chances.

Manchester City boss Roberto Mancini suffered his first defeat since taking over at Eastlands, as his side lost 2-0 at Everton on Sunday. It had been a perfect start for the Italian since taking over at from Mark Hughes, and it will have been the first time that he saw his team outplayed so much. Whether they could just never quite get going, or whether Everton really were that good, there will be lessons to be learned from the performance. Defeat often does that to teams, and now it will be a test of Mancini’s management skills as he steels his troops to take on rivals Manchester United in the first leg of the Carling Cup semi final.

This is the rearranged match which was postponed due to the winter UK conditions, and the defeat against Everton will have signalled the end of Mancini’s honeymoon period. They have looked much better, much more decisive under the new management, but there were really undone against Everton. Every team will have their off day of course, but those dropped three points cost City quite dearly in the face for fourth spot in the Premier League. City could now have had a comfortably three point cushion, but are instead level with Tottenham on 38. There is now an immediate need to turn back to winning ways.

There was still no appearance by on-loan Patrick Vieira in City colours, and he will still be missing from the line-up on Tuesday night at the City of Manchester Stadium. Adebayor will still take the time he needs to get back into action after withdrawing from the African Cup of Nations and after Brazilian striker Robinho’s woeful performance against Everton, Mancini will be relying on a big performance from ex-United star Carlos Tevez to guide them to a first leg advantage. The little Argentinian has been in sparkling form for City of late.

With Aston Villa having one foot in the door of the final against Blackburn, this is a big test now for Alex Ferguson as well, after unceremoniously being dumped out of the FA Cup by League One side Leeds United. With a season of surprising results for United, and having seen Premier League challengers Chelsea hit seven goals on Saturday, the Carling Cup, for United, will take on extra meaning now. Ferguson will likely go with as strong a team as possible, whereas, had this been a normal season, dominating the league and still in the FA Cup, things may just have been different.

Ferguson pretty much has a full squad to choose from, with only a couple of minor exceptions, but missing the likes of Hargreaves and Ferdinand has become the norm for the season, and they are carrying on without them. The two sides produced a classic when they met in the league earlier in the season, with a late goal from Michael Owen clinching a 4-3 win for the Reds. If we get half of that excitement it will be great, but things could be a little bit tighter. Manchester City’s best chance will probably to be attack though, and try to get as much out of the home advantage as they can. Under Mancini they have generally looked more cohesive going forward than under Hughes.

It is Carlos Tevez who is the pivotal player for City, and if Vieira could have been fit for the game, then it can be assured that he would have loved to have turned out against United for his first game back in the English top flight. He could be the extra still and class that City would have benefited from in this game, and certainly in the match against Everton. United though haven’t been at their best this season, but have still proved to be better than most, by keeping up challenges in the League and the Champions League.

BETTING STATS

Last 5 Head to Head
Man Utd 4, Man City 3
Man Utd, 2 Man City 0
Man City 0, Man Utd 1
Man Utd 1, Man City 2
Man City 1, Man Utd 0

Last 5 Match Goals
Man City – 10 For, 3 Against
Man Utd – 12 For, 3 Against

Last 10 Form
Man City – W7, D1, L2
Man Utd – W6, D1, L3

Win Percentage
Man City have a 69.2 win percentage at home
Man Utd have a 66.7 win percentage away from home

Match Prices
Manchester City to win: 8/5 at Paddy Power
Draw: 12/5 at SkyBet
Manchester United to win: 19/10 at Boylesports

Betting Advice: Intriguing game this one, to say the least. Manchester City will want to attack, but by the same measure, Ferguson will send him men out probably with a more defensive frame of mind. They will be looking to take at least a draw back to Old Trafford for the second leg, as that is where their strengths should like. It could all hinge on how creative Tevez is in breaking down the United defence. Tough call on the outcome, but would lean towards a draw. Instead will go for over/under.
Under 2.5 Goals – 4/5 at BetFred

Liverpool have won just four of their ten away matches in the Premier League this season, scoring an average of just 1.1 goals per game. However, after twenty games of the season played, it appears that the bookmakers still think that the Reds are in a false position this season. Why else can you explain why they’re priced at a prohibitive 4/6 with bet365 and Victor Chandler to win at the Britannia Stadium this Saturday (and to be fair to these bookmakers, that’s the best price that’s currently available)?

One can only assume that the bookies are prepared to give Stoke City such massive odds on account of the fact that they’re an unfashionable team to back. It’s true that the Potters don’t play the prettiest football in the division, nor that their aims are any higher than staying in the division, although their recent 3-2 win over Fulham illustrated that they are a tough nut to crack in front of their own supporters. If you factor in the abysmal weather conditions that are seemingly making matches more of a leveller than you would expect on a hot day, then it appears that Sky Bet’s 11/2 about Tony Pulis’ team is the wrong price.

Now we’re not suggesting that Stoke are definitely going to win and it’s Liverpool who clearly possess the most quality player-for-player. However, this is an example where it might pay to go against the grain. Just say you picked out three 11/2 ‘value picks’ this weekend and only one of them came in. That would still return a handsome profit, providing you backed the trio of teams at level stakes.

There are other markets where you can support the outsider if you think that the price is too big but you’re not confident enough to back them to win the match. Many bookmakers now offer a ‘Draw No Bet’ market, where there are no prizes for guessing that stakes are refunded if the match finishes all square (last season’s game between Stoke and Liverpool was a goalless draw). Sporting Bet offer 10/3 about Stoke on this market. Alternatively, there is also the option of adding the draw option to the outsider, something that can be done with a ‘Double Chance’ market. William Hill currently have 13/10 available that the outcome of the match is either a home win or a draw and I would personally make it no bigger than even money.

You may be of the opinion that Liverpool will win this match after some good recent performances in the Premier League. However, if you are prepared to take a long-term view with your betting and identify teams that are ultimately priced too big based on stats and form, then you should return a profit overall. You may think that Everton are too big at 19/10 (Boylesports) to beat Manchester City after an impressive unbeaten run which lately saw them draw 2-2 at Arsenal. However, it might be worth avoiding the 18/1 (Coral) that Burnley manage a surprise win at Old Trafford!

The Irish bookmaker have been known to take some unusual steps in the past, usually by paying out on a team winning a league well before it becomes a mathematical possibility. Indeed, there have been several occasions when Paddy Power have got it wrong and ended up paying out on Manchester United and Arsenal or Celtic and Rangers in the same season! Now it appears that they have been courting controversy again with their popular Last Man Standing competition.

In fairness to them, they were caught between a rock and a hard place when the snow started falling last week, leading to seven of the ten Premier League fixtures being postponed. Many contestants in the Last Man Standing competition took advantage of this by selecting a team in a match which had been postponed, but which Paddy Power hadn’t managed to void on time. Therefore, they were left with a situation whereby contestants had either:

1)    Deliberately picked a ‘postponed’ team
2)    Been forced to pick one of the six teams that were actually playing a match between Saturday and Monday
3)    Innocently picked a team and then seen their match postponed nearer to the time

Quite rightly, Paddy Power have decided to allow all participants to progress in the respective competitions, although some will feel a sense of injustice due to:

a)    picking a team that won the match, eg Manchester City, while others went for Manchester United or Arsenal
b)    no longer being able to pick Manchester City in the competition, while others went for Burnley, Wigan and Stoke etc, knowing the games would be postponed

It’s an unusual circumstance, although if you’re like me and one of the 101 left in the ‘Week 15’ competition, then it’s no longer a level playing field. I managed to pick Wigan although my first choice ‘postponed’ team would have been Burnley, especially as they have now lost Owen Coyle as manager and it’s doubtful they will win many more matches this season!

Nevertheless, with Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City left to pick, it promises to be an interesting few weeks, with the draw insurance still available for one particular week. This is the time when it pays to look at the fixture list for the weeks ahead and assess likely home wins (always slightly dangerous to go for away picks). Many of the previous contests have seen more than one winner, with the contestants being left with the dregs to pick from when it gets towards the tenth week of the competition!

One thing that Paddy Power should be applauded for is the moneyback specials that are regularly available at their website. They have commemorated Owen Coyle’s return to Bolton as manager by offering a refund to all losing first / last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles if Wanderers give their new gaffer a dream start by winning the match. Click here for more details.

City of Manchester Stadium
Monday, January 11, 2010
Kick-off: 8pm

Manchetser City will have the chance to close some ground on the teams above them, as new boss Roberto Mancini looks to extend his perfect start with a victory at home against Blakcburn. With most of the Premier League falling foul of the harsh winter weather across the UK, City can now move up into fourth place, one point ahead of current position occupants, Tottenham. It would also mean that they would be just seven points behind leaders Chelsea, and just six behind Manchester United, who they would love to get in front of. If you are ending the season ahead of Manchester United, then it is a fair bet that you are going to win the league.

While the light blues probably aren’t at that level just yet, Mancini has made his first signing after taking charge at Eastlands. City have been in the news all week, without kicking a ball around, as they have secured the services of Patrick Viera for six months on loan. The former Arsenal star comes on hire from Inter Milan, and provides some great experience for Mancini in the middle of the park. Although it is unlikely that he will turn out for City against Blackburn because of minor injury in his final game at Inter, his presence will be a valuable one as City look to climb the table. He has experience, class and a lot of influence on the pitch and in the dressing room.

City have a few other players missing too, which will mean a shuffling of the pack for Mancini. Wayne Bridge, Shaun Wright-Phillips and Joleon Lescott are among the names who will be left in the cold stands on Monday night for one reason or another. They are also missing the services of Kolo Toure and Emmanuel Adebayor who were away on international duty at the African Cup of Nations. Adebayor of course, was one of the Togo players who have pulled out of the tournament, after the tragic attack on their team bus. But at least Mancini has gotten City moving in the right direction, after they had stalled somewhat under previous boss Mark Hughes.

That is in stark contrast to what has been happening around Ewood Park this season, as Sam Allardyce, after recovering from heart surgery, is going to need to call upon all his reserve and steel to get Blackburn heading in the right direciton again. Rovers are treading water down in thirteenth position, and have not managed to pull off a win in eight Premier League matches. They are involved in the Carling Cup Semi Final against Aston Villa, and that looks to be their only highlight in a long season for them. Allardyce won’t have Diouf available after his banishment from the pitch against Villa in their last Premier League game. Allardyce really needs to go shopping for some forward power, as they are lacking badly in goals. Four goals in their last eight games sums up a lot of their problems.

Both teams had their first legs of the Carling Cup called off in the week, and so there will be no complaints over one team having played an extra midweek game ahead of this one. It’ll be a cold night in Manchester, and probably not one of a lot of flair. These are the nights when the job just needs to get done. City, along with Chelsea, are the only teams in the league not have lost a game at home this season, and they will be favourites to keep that going. With the change in personnel because of injuries, Mancini will be happy to see Man City walk away with a 1-0 victory. City did get the upper hand when they won 2-0 at Ewood Park on the opening day of the season.

BETTING STATS

Last 5 Head to Head
Blackburn 0, Man City 2
Man City 3, Blackburn 1
Blackburn 2, Man City 2
Man City 2, Blackburn 2
Blackburn 1, Man City 0

Last 5 Matches Goals
Man City – 12 For, 9 Against
Blackburn – 4 For, 7 Against

Last 10 Games
Man City – W4, D5, L1
Blackburn – W2, D5, L3

Match Prices
Manchester City to win: 4/9 at Paddy Power
Draw: 19/5 at BetFred
Blackburn to win: 15/2 at Bet365

Betting Advice: City should win this one. Probably not a great night for football, but their extra bit of quality should mean that they have enough to battle out a result here. They’ll probably be geed up with the arrival of Patrick Vierra too, which will mean there will be a new fight for places. Carlos Tevez is on fire at the moment, with 7 goals in siz league matches. Definitely worth a punt on him getting amongst the goals.
Blackburn +1 Asian Handicap: 11/10 at Stan James
Carlos Tevez Anytime Scorer: 6/5 at Expekt