martin johnson

The RBS Six Nations is set to kick off with a bang as Wales host England on Friday night. With our full RBS Six Nations betting preview already posted, it is time to look at the individual matches in more detail, as the try to get out of the blocks the quickest. England are going as favourites to win the tournament this year, and that is largely down to two factors. First of all, they showed much attacking improvement over the autumn, and the second factor is that they have three home matches at Twickenham during this year’s campaign. The trip to Wales is the tough opener for Martin Johnson’s men though, as they have lost on their last three visits to the Millennium Stadium. The strengths of England will be all in the pack, and that is where they really have to take Wales on, as the home side are much weaker in that department. While England developed something of an unexpected running game against the Southern Hemisphere teams during the autumn, it was clearly something that was new to the set up. While it produced a lot of exciting rugby for the Twickenham crowd to enjoy, the tactics were still in their infancy, as there were still many flaws in the English game. The defense in midfield was particularly lax, with Mike Tindall taking a lot of the blame on his shoulders. The England backs still seemed to be playing on a wing and a prayer at times, trying their best to play expansive rugby, but not fully communicating or understanding the players around them, and those all important partnerships and understandings have fully yet to develop. Martin Johnson won’t be able to field his ideal fifteen due to injuries, but if Toby Flood exerts the kind of control from fly half as he did against Australia at the back end of last year, they should be fine. It all comes down to decision making.

At least there is a lot more promise there, and England really should, and have to do better than their third place finishing in the Six Nations this year. There is a World Cup looming later in the year, and England have to be ready. These five matches are invaluable contests in the context of the World Cup, and the trip to Cardiff will really test their mettle. They were bullied out of their game by South Africa in the Autumn, who really took England on up front and took a lot out of the England game. England have lost captain Lewis Moody and Courtney Lawes, which will have a big pack on the mobility of the pack. There is thoughts that England may just revert to their old, boring kick and chase, aim for territory game, instead of showing the kind of adventure which helped England beat Australia last year. There really isn’t a lot to choose from between the teams, in particular, England, France and Ireland in terms of winning the championship, and a Grand Slam seems a very distant dream for any of them. England need to lay down a marker by beating Wales, and if that victory comes, and banking on the three home victories, by the time they go to Ireland in the final round of matches, the result may not matter. England are stronger than they were twelve months ago, but they still lack that killer instinct, that ruthlessness which comes so naturally to the Southern Hemisphere teams. If the England pack get their momentum going, and get rolling against the Welsh, then they should win. The England defence in the back line still needs some work, and they will come under the cosh by Wales, who will probably take a running game to the Auld enemy.

Wales though are not in any kind of form. They haven’t won a test match in seven attempts now, and their terrible draw against Fiji somehow seemed worse than a defeat. They won’t have Gavin Henson in the set up, no influence from Martin Williams, and there seems some indecision from coach Warren Gatland, as to how the three quarters line is going to set up. As always, Wales are talking the big talk, but really they could find themselves in a mighty struggle through the Six Nations this year, if they do not get themselves off to a good start. It’s not that they do not have attacking threats at all, because they do. They are often one of the more exciting and adventurous teams with the ball in hand, but the trouble with them, is that they really do not have any defensive prowess at all. They will be vulnerable to big score lines being ran up against them, because their pack is not the strongest (even less so with Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones out), and there are serious gaps in the Welsh midfield, which teams can easily exploit. On paper you would put England down for a win and expect nothing less, but the Welsh will of course have that all important home advantage on the night, and that is worth a few points in the bag. However, they really don’t have the heavy hitters that England do, and because of the frailties in the Welsh line and at set plays, you would expect England to win this one, probably not by a big margin, because the English will be made to scrap and work hard.

There have been 119 Wales v England matches throughout history, and things stand pretty much even. Wales have won 53 encounters, while England just have the edge with 54 wins in the meetings. Twelve of those 119 matches have ended in draws. What makes for interesting reading is the average points per game, and Wales have ran in 11 points on average, while England have just under 13 points per game on average against the Welsh. There really is not much to call between the two sides in the statistics, the biggest win for Wales over England was 25-0 thrashing, and England’s biggest win was a massive 62-5 thumping of the Welsh. This should be a cracking match, and has every potential to be an open, running affair, full of counter attack. It could be a bit cagey at first, but as the game wears on and teams settle down and get a feel for the ball, it will get sprayed around. Look for second half tries when legs are tiring.

Last Year’s Result: England 30, Wales 17
England Last Year’s Six Nations Finishing Position: 3rd
Wales Last Year’s Six Nations Finishing Position: 4th

Wales to win: 16/11 at Unibet
Draw: 20/1 at BetFred
England to win: 4/6 at SkyBet

The Rugby Union heavyweight contest between England and Australia, appears to be all about the return of hero Jonny Wilkinson. The match at Twickenham on Saturday, starts the series of Autumn Internationals for the home nation. England v Australia usually produces a classic encounter, with all of the players up for the task of taking on their bitter rivals. The Aussies have generally had the upper hand when it comes to the big scrum down, but England have pulled out the wins when it has mattered most. They triumphed in the unforgettable 2003 Rugby World Cup Final, and again at the 2007 World Cup semi quarter final stage. There is hardly a better sight in sport than watching the English pack demolish that of the Green and Gold.

For England v Australia betting advice ahead of Saturday’s game, Australia, despite having a couple of injury problems themselves, should be the stronger of the two nations. This is almost a back to square one mission for England manager Martin Johnson, as he looks to reshape English Rugby from the ground up. There is no better place to start than against one of the best teams in the world. England have been ravaged by injury problems, with up to eight probable starters falling victim to one problem or another. This has paved the way for youngsters to step up and show what they are made of, and put pressure on the more established senior players. This is the enthusiasm that Johnson will be looking for in the test, and they will need to settle quickly and learn to trust each other’s abilities.

The calming presence of Wilkinson is vital. He has beaten Australia the past six times he has actually been fit enough to play. The Aussies most vulnerable spot will come at centre, as Stirling Mortlock and Berrick Barnes, the regular pairing, are both missing. Australia will have Matt Giteau playing though, and that’s enough creativity to keep the England backs on the toes, especially full back Ugo Moyne who will be playing out of position there on Saturday. Last year’s Autumn Internationals were a tale of woe for the English, suffering heavy defeats in all three tests against the Tri Nations sides of Australia, South Africa and New Zealand.

Australia have a good record against England, but this is Twickenham, and it should be a riotous affair. England need to gel quickly and keep good control in the forwards, and build from there. One problem for England in the disappointing six nations earlier this year, was lack of quick ball from the breakdowns, and any creativity whatsoever. Martin Johnson believes that squad is in great mood, and are much better than at the beginning of the year. A good contest for England would be keeping the score to within 5 points, and is a good bet to look for. Australia to win by 1-5 points will fetch 5-1 at Coral

Here are the match prices and interesting bets:

England to win: 15/8 at SportingBet
Draw: 22/1 at ExtraBet
Australia to win: 4/7 at Paddy Power

Australia to win by 1-12 points: 7/4 at Bet365
England to win by 1-10 points: 3/1 at Ladbrokes

Johnny Wilkinson: 17 points or more 13/8 at SkyBet

AUTUM INTERNATIONALS
England v Australia: November 7
England v Argentina: November 14
England v New Zealand: November 21

How Many Games Will England win:
None: 11/2 at Ladbrokes
Exactly 1: 6/4 at Ladbrokes
Exactly 2: 11/8 at Paddy Power
Exactly 3: 12/1 at Paddy Power

Twickenham
Kick Off 2.30 pm

The Rugby Union Autumn Internationals kick off on Saturday, with the home nations taking on some of the best in the World. Martin Johnson’s England has been ravaged by injury, and there are a good seven or eight potential starters which have not even made the squad. This has thrown the selection doors wide open for fringe players and debutants. One famous name though has been selected for the first time since March 2008, and that is the irrepressible uber-hero Jonny Wilkinson. The legend that is Jonny Wilkinson has found a new lease of life this season with his new club, French side Toulon, where he has managed to stay free of injury. After being plagued for six years with injury after injury, Wilkinson has recently stated that he is better than he has ever been. Australia coach Robbie Deans has cited to the press, what a difference having to play against a team with Wilkinson in it will be.

Only three of the 2005 World Cup Winning side remain in the squad, with Wilkinson being one of them, Steve Thompson and Lewis Moody being the others. For followers of England Rugby, there may be a lot of unfamiliar names lining up to take the National Anthem at Twickenham on Saturday. As well as Jonny Wilkinson’s comeback is welcome, hooker Steve Thompson’s return to the full international fold is even more remarkable. After retiring from the game due to a neck injury in 2007 Thompson has rebuilt his career to reach the pinnacle again. The likes of Thompson and Wilkinson, who have bags of experience, will be vital components to balance the youngsters in the squad.

So much change has there been, that from the loss against Australia earlier in the year,  only four members of that team will be on display on Saturday. A lot of the changes have been enforced due to injury, but one would hope that coach Martin Johnson, an England legend in his own right, will be seeing this as the first building block towards the next World Cup. A lot of work has to be done between now and then, and it is a good chance to see how some youngsters are developing, and how they can cope with the pressures on the International stage. The longer that Johnson can keep a cohesive unit together, the stronger England will be.

There will be two debutants on show for England in the starting 15, that of Shane Geraghty, who has been impressive at centre for his club Northampton, and at the back of the pack there will be a new number eight, with Jordan Crane taking up the important role. Two new caps start on the bench, Courtney Lawes and Ayoola Erinle.

The pivotal scrum half shirt will be filled by Harlequins’ Danny Care, who has relegated Paul Hodgson to the bench, while inside centre will be filled by Northampton’s Shane Geraghty, who gets to play alongside Jonny Wilkinson. Geraghty has only made three appearances for England, all as substitute, but he is one of the raw youngsters who are up for the challenge, and will be looking to take their chance while more senior players are out injured.

After the Australia game, there will be two further tests for Martin Johnson’s England, against Argentina and New Zealand to follow over the coming weeks. Australia will be the stronger side, and it will be an immense test for the new look England. The Aussies finished bottom of the Tri-Nations table this year though with just one win, and will be looking to up the stakes of their own development. The home side will need to hear Swing Low Sweet Chariots echoing around the arena for that extra competitive lift, and with the Premiership in full flow, Johnson will be hoping at the very least, for a strong, competitive match, even if the win is out of sight.

England to win: 8/5 at 888Sport
Draw: 22/1 at Paddy Power
Australia to win: 4/7 at Bet365

Betting Tips:
Australia to win by 1-5 points – 5/1 at Coral
Jonny Wilkinson Match Points 17 or more: 13/8 at SkyBet

England Team: M Banahan (Bath), S Borthwick (Saracens, capt), D Care (Harlequins), J Crane (Leicester), T Croft (Leicester), M Cueto (Sale Sharks), L Deacon (Leicester), S Geraghty (Northampton), D Hipkiss (Leicester), L Moody (Leicester), U Monye (Harlequins), T Payne (Wasps), S Thompson (Brive),  J Wilkinson (Toulon), D Wilson (Bath).

Replacements: D Bell (Bath), C Lawes (Northampton), A Erinle (Biarritz), A Goode (Brive),  D Hartley (Northampton), J Haskell (Stade Francais), P Hodgson (London Irish).