over 2.5 goals

What are the value of Over/Under 2.5 goals betting in the Premier League this season? It is one of those football betting markets which sometimes gets skipped over due to lack of time spent studying stats. It’s easy to say that if Chelsea are facing Wigan for example, that there will be more than 2.5 goals, but one way to read the Over/Under betting market, is really to look for frequency.  How often is a team involved in a match which produces over 2.5 goals? Not only that, who are the teams which regularly hit those targets at home, but fail away. When looking for matches to back in the Over/Under 2.5 markets, you really have to look beyond the supposed big guns. For example, while Chelsea are banging the goals in left right and centre, only 50% of their matches have produced more than 2.5 goals. That is because the opposition rarely gets on the scoreboard against them, while teams like Blackpool on the other hand, who have a weaker defence but know where the goals are, regularly produce high results in this betting market. Nearly 90% of Blackpool’s matches have finished over 2.5 goals, so you have to look beyond the obvious. Here is a guide to the current standings and stats of the English Premier League, and the frequency of Over/Under 2.5, both home and away. It will help to guide you football betting strategy when looking for teams to follow for this market.

Home Matches

Over: Arsenal are well worth looking at in Over 2.5 Goals betting, as they lead the way this season in average goals per match at the Emirates. When Arsenal are at home, there is an average of 4.75 goals per match (with Arsenal scoring 3.50 and conceding 1.25 per home match), which is pretty conclusive. No other team at home comes close. The nearest to the Gunners in the stats, is Manchester United and Newcastle United who are averaging 3.75 goal matches at home. You were maybe thinking that Chelsea would be up there higher along with Arsenal perhaps? But the problem with Chelsea, is that while they have an average of scoring 3.50 goals per match at home, they haven’t conceded any, which keeps the total average goals for Chelsea home matches, down. A slightly weaker defence would really make Chelsea one of the strongest teams in this market. But they are not there, and that 3.50 goal average has been all done by themselves alone. That has included the odd big score which have pushed the totals up, so don’t fully be drawn into Chelsea in this market. At an average of 3.50 goals per match though, they are still worth a good punt at Stamford Bridge, along with Blackpool and Wigan who have the save total average because they have conceded so highly at home.

Under: Here, you are generally looking at the solid, tight and awkward teams at home. Think Aston Villa, who play out home games averaging 1.50 goals per match. They are tough to score on, and don’t have much firepower themselves. Even tighter than them are Midlands neighbours Birmingham City, whose home games average just 1.25 goals per match, which doesn’t give the fans much to cheer about. Remember, these are totals averages, between both the home team and away team. So Birmingham at home don’t score many, and don’t conceded many. The perfect team to back in Under 2.5 goals. Worth looking at too in this Under 2.5 market is Sunderland, who are involved in matches averaging at 1.75 goals at the Stadium of Light. There is profit in low scoring, defensive teams!

Away Matches

Over: This is generally where the weaker teams show up well. West Brom lead the way in total average goals in away matches, because they have conceded so much while on the road. Similarly, Blackpool come in just behind them. The contrast in home and away form is in evidence here when you start looking, as away matches featuring Aston Villa and Birmingham have an average of 3.75 goals per match so far, signifying that they really don’t travel very well. That’s in stark contrast to their Under 2.5 betting strengths at home. There really aren’t many teams to follow with a lot of confidence when they go away in Over 2.5 goals, with those four teams being the stand out names.

Under: Two stand out names come to mind when considering looking for a team away from home producing an Under 2.5 goals match. Everton and Wigan keep the averages very low when they play away from home, with Everton’s matches producing an average of just one goal per match, while Wigan away matches produce only slightly more at 1.67. That makes for a safe Under bet and should be followed over the season. Next to those stand out figures, Wigan and Fulham are the only other teams which come in a 2.00 or less.

Totals
Topping the list again here, with combined home and away averages, and it is not the high scoring Chelsea, nor their London rivals, Arsenal. Arsenal matches routinely produce an average of 3.50, but Blackpool matches have the highest amount of average goals this season, registering at 3.88.  The teams which make safer bets in your Over 2.5 goals betting are the ones averaging around three goals, and not just hovering above the 2.5 threshold. For this, you are looking at Arsenal as mentioned, Chelsea at 3.13, Bolton 3.00, Newcastle 3.00, West Brom at 3.13 and Manchester United at 3.63. If you like your percentages to summarise all of this then read on.

Over 2.5 Percentages
87.5 of Manchester United games have been over
87.5% of Blackpool games have been over
62.5% of Arsenal, Aston Villa, Birmingham, Bolton, Newcastle and Stoke have been over
Avoid Everton, who have a percentage of just 12.5% of their games being over
Sunderland make a good Under bet at an average of 28.6%

Other notable Over/Under Streak Bets
All of Arsenal, Blackpool and Wolves’ matches have been Over 1.5 goals
Man Utd and Blackpool have a 62.5% of matches ending over 3.5 goals
Neither Stoke nor Blackburn have been involved in a match Over 3.5 goals

Scoring Stats
Other important stats to look over when weighing up an Over/Under betting markets, is clean sheets and failing to score. These can be strong indicators, along with the information above, of to what kind of goal returns you can expect. Wigan and Everton lead the way in matches in which they have failed to score (4) and that is why they make safe Under 2.5 Goal bets. Chelsea lead the way with six clean sheets this season, and that is what is something of a deterrent in taking them Over 2.5 goals, especially away from home. Take a look at Over/Under 2.5 Goals betting at your online bookmaker next time you are looking around sub market betting. Study the stats, use our and guide, and you may find new avenues of profit in your football betting.

Over/Under 2.5 goals premiership betting tips for 28/29 November 2009
 

Wolves v Birmingham City – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.70)

Wolves take on midlands rivals Birmingham in what promises to be a feisty, but I expect, low-scoring affair.
They will be without striker Chris Iwelumo, Ronald Zubar, Matthew Hill, David Jones and Stephen Ward for the visit of the Blues.
Birmingham similarly also have injuries and are likely to be without Teemu Tainio, Martin Taylor, David Murphy, Garry O`Connor(1gl), Damien Johnson and Stuart Parnaby.
I worry that Lee Bowyer(3gls) is Birmingham’s leading scorer.
 

Aston Villa v Tottenham – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.75)

Villa are set to finally unveil winger Stewart Downing at Villa Park after a long-term injury kept him out.
James Collins(1gl) and Curtis Davies are both ruled out for the visit of high-scoring Tottenham who have an average of 3 gls per game at home.
Defender Nicky Shorey has joined Nottm Forest on loan.
Spurs will again be without Carlo Cudicini and Luka Modric as they travel to the Midlands.
 

Manchester City v Hull City – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.50)

Man City whose league position is in slow decline (thanks to 6 draws), will be hoping to kill off potential spoilers Hull on Saturday.
The big news is that Robinho is back to fitness but will almost certainly have to settle for the bench. Kolo Toure(1gl) & Martin Petrov(3gls,2assts) will continue on the sidelines though.
Hull travel with the knowledge they are one of only two sides without an away win so far (Burnley the other), and this won’t be an easy assignment.
They will be without Seyi Olofinjana(1gl) & skipper Ian Ashbee for the trip to Eastlands.

Over/Under 2.5 goals premiership betting tips for 21/22 November 2009
 
Birmingham v Fulham – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.57)

The Blues have another striker problem in Garry O`Connor(1gl) as he now faces a four month lay-off after groin surgery complications. Birmingham have struggled to hit the net this season and this will add pressure on Benitez(1gl,1asst) & Jerome(1gl,1asst) to perform. Midfielder Keith Fahey(1asst) and defender Martin Taylor are battling to be fit for the visit of Fulham. Defender David Murphy continues to be sidelined indefinitely.
Fulham forward Diomansy Kamara(1gl) is ruled out while former Blues striker Andy Johnson(1asst) will need a late fitness test.
Midfielder Danny Murphy(2gls) is about a week away from returning and Fulham could miss him in set-piece scenarios here.
Blues need a win to pull away from the relegation zone, but I fear a low-scoring game is on the cards here.
 
Tottenham v Wigan – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.65)

Spurs keeper Carlo Cudicini is ruled out for about 6 months following a car crash,while Luka Modric(1asst) is still sidelined after a broken leg.
Sebastien Bassong(1gl),Aaron Lennon(2gls,3assts) and Dos Santos are all struggling to be fit.
Wigan’s only injury appears to be defender Maynor Figueroa(1asst) who will be missed at the back for The Latics.
Tottenham could move into second place depending on other results.

Over/Under 2.5 goals betting tips for saturday 17 october
 

Stoke City v West Ham – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.66)

Stoke striker Mamady Sidibe is on the road to recovery at last, but this game will come too soon as he builds up match fitness after being out since March this year.
Diego Arismendi also misses out, while Abdoulaye Faye(1gl) remains sidelined for some time, as The Potters look to put some serious daylight between them and the teams occupying the relegation zone.
The Hammers will be without Scott Parker who is suspended, along with usual suspects Dean Ashton and Luis Boa Morte.
Kieron Dyer,Daniel Gabbidon and Jack Collison are doubts.
 
Portsmouth v Tottenham – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.80)

Portsmouth ‘welcome’ back former manager Harry Redknapp when he brings his high-flying Tottenham side to Fratton Park.
It’s likely to be a highly charged atmosphere, but Pompey need to focus on the priority of gaining a much-needed 3 points.
They will be without defender Linvoy Primus again, and will be sweating on the fitness of midfielder Papa Bouba Diop,Joel Ward,Richard Hughes and Hermann Hreidarsson. Jamie O`Hara is also unavailable due to his loan deal from Tottenham.
Spurs will travel without defender Jonathan Woodgate,Luka Modric(1asst) and Dos Santos.
Ledley King and want-away striker Roman Pavlyuchenko(1asst) may have to pass late fitness tests.
 
Bristol City v Peterborough Utd – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.75)

City midfielder Brian Wilson is out for a couple of months with a shin injury and won’t be available for the visit of Peterborough.
City will assess the fitness of striker Alvaro Saborio(1gl,1asst) and defender Lewin Nyatanga,but Liam Fontaine and Christian Ribeiro are definitely out.
Peterborough midfielder Tom Williams(4assts) is a major doubt, and Paul Coutts is ruled out.
However, defender Craig Morgan is expected to start, with striker George Boyd(3gls,3assts) equalling the highest number of appearances for Posh.
 
Sheffield Weds v Coventry City – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.85)

Wednesday striker Luke Varney(2gls,1asst) could earn a recall, along with Francis Jeffers & Akpo Sodje after impressing in te reserves midweek.
Otherwise The Owls look set to remain unchanged.
Coventry’s ex Nottm Forest midfielder Sammy Clingan(3gls,1asst) has been ruled out,along with defender Marcus Hall(1asst).
David Bell & Ben Turner will also have to sit it out again.
 

Over/Under 2.5 goals betting tips for the weekend 3 to 4 october
 

Burnley v Birmingham City – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.62)

Burnley have suffered another injury blow as striker Jay Rodriguez will
be out for about 3 months and joins Martin Paterson and Chris McCann on
the injury list.
Fernando Guerrero is also out.
Birmingham’s early season injury woes continue with defenders Franck
Quedrue & Martin Taylor,and forwards Cameron Jerome and James
McFadden(1gl) still all ruled out.
New signing Christian Benitez is also very unlikely to figure as he has
flown home to Ecuador to be with his family after his father was in a
road accident.

Arsenal v Blackburn – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.55)

Arsenal entertain Blackburn without the services of
Djourou,Fabianski,Denilson and Sami Nasri.
Blackburn travel to the Emirates with defender Gael Givet(1gl,1asst) an
injury doubt.
Rovers recorded a 2-1 win over Aston Villa last week.

Chelsea v Liverpool – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 2.10)

Chelsea will be looking to bounce back after their shock defeat at Wigan
last week, but it won’t be easy with Liverpool the next opponents.
Chelsea will be without first choice keeper Petr Cech who is suspended
following his sending off last weekend against Wigan.
John Mikel Obi and Alex are also injured and will miss the match.
Liverpool will again be without midfielder Alberto Aquilani when they
travel to Stamford Bridge.

Barnsley v Ipswich Town – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.80)

Barnsley midfielder Anderson De Silva(1gl) is doubtful ahead of their
basement clash against Ipswich Town.
On-loan keeper Bartosz Bialkowski is set to continue between the sticks
despite Luke Steele recovering from a broken finger.
Ipswich skipper Alex Bruce(1gl) is still missing with a groin injury, so
Tommy Smith is set to continue in central defence with Gareth McAuley(1gl).

Crystal Palace v Blackpool – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.72)

Palace are waiting on a late fitness test for Victor Moses(1asst), and
defenders Paddy McCarthy(1asst) and Claude Davis may also miss out due
to a virus.
Strikers Freddie Sears and Stern John are both ruled out again.
Blackpool also have injury concerns ahead of Saturday’s trip.
Ian Evatt(1gl),Danny Coid and Ishmel Demontagnac are set to miss the match.
Tangerines strikers Daniel Nardiello,Gary Taylor-Fletcher(2gls,1asst)
and Stephen McPhee are all struggling to be fit.

Reading v Middlesbrough – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 2.00)

The Royals will be missing Chris Armstrong,Radoslav Vasilev and striker
Shane Long is doubtful after missing the away game at Preston in midweek.
Middlesbrough will travel to REading without striker Caleb Folan and
defender Chris Riggott.
However, Emmanuel Pogatetz,Justin Hoyte and Didier Digard may all travel
with the squad.

Swansea City v QPR – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.66)

Swansea have been dealt a major injury blow with influential midfielder
Ferrie Bodde looking likely to miss the rest of the season with a
cruciate knee ligament injury.
However, Jordi Lopez is available after serving a one match suspension,
as is Nathan Dyer(1asst).
Leon Britton,Andrea Orlandi and Cedric Van der Gun will all have to pass
late fitness tests, but Gorka Pintado sits out as he is suspended.
QPR look likely to be without defender Fitz Hall,Angelo Balanta,Matt
Connolly,Gareth Ainsworth and Lee Cook.

Over/Under 2.5 goals betting tips for the weekend 26 to 27 september
 

Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.61)

The Blues will look ahead to their home game against Bolton with renewed confidence after a fantastic away win at Hull last weekend.
The injury list is starting to recover, however, James McFadden(1gl),Franck Quedrue,striker Cameron Jerome and defender Martin Taylor all face lengthy lay-offs.
Roger Johnson and Scott Dann should continue their new central defensive partnership after impressing at the KC Stadium.
Bolton midfielder Sean Davis has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury,and midfielder Joey O`Brien is also out.
However, Ricardo Gardner is almost fit and may be included in the squad as manager Gary Megson looks for improvement in results.

Liverpool v Hull City – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.47)

Liverpool boss Rafael Benitez has an almost fully fit aquad to pick from when they host a Hull side who can’t take a trick at the moment.
Only midfielder Alberto Aquilani and defender Daniel Agger remain sidelined.
Hull have a few injuries as they face an almost impossible task at Anfield; defender Steven Mouyokolo,and midfield trio Richard Garcia,Jimmy Bullard and captain Ian Ashbee are all sidelined.
Anthony Gardner may be fit in time.

 
Tottenham v Burnley – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.60)

Tottenham will look to get back to winning ways against a Burnley side still seeking their first away win.
Spurs have injury worries which tests their depth of squad; Dos Santos,Ledley King,Sebastien Bassong(1gl),Luka Modric(1asst) and Jonathan Woodgate are all sidelined.
The Clarets will have to do without striker Martin Paterson, but this provides the opportunity for on-loan striker David Nugent(2gls) to start after bagging a brace off the bench against Sunderland last weekend.
Midfielder Chris McCann is also out for about 3 months and first choice keeper Brian Jensen is doubtful with a dead-leg. Stephen Caldwell may return after a groin injury.
I predict goals here at White Hart Lane with defenders out for Tottenham, but Crouch,Defoe,Keane & Lennon on fire at the moment.

 
QPR v Barnsley – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.80)

QPR midfielder Ben Watson should return to the side and Hogan Ephraim should be fit following stitches to his head.
Angelo Balanta and Fitz Hall will both miss out though, along with Matthew Connolly,Gareth Ainsworth and winger Lee Cook.
Barnsley have signed three defenders on temporary loans to shore up their leaky defence.
Suad Filekovic,Carl Dickinson and Ryan Shotton all join the club but whether they make the squad is not know at this stage.
Defender Darren Moore is rated 50/50 and Emil Hallfredsson(2assts) is doubtful, but Jamal Campbell-Ryce should be recalled.

Plymouth Argyle v Nottingham Forest – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.75)

Plymouth will be without midfielder Luke Summerfield(1asst) as he has joined Leyton Orient on loan.
On loan central defender Shane Lowry is doubtful with an ankle injury.
Skipper Carl Fletcher plays against his former club.
Forest may have Kelvin Wilson back in the squad, but Luke Chambers should continue.
First choice keeper Lee Camp should return, but injured trio Radoslaw Majewski(1gl),James Perch and Julian Bennett all remain injured.

Over/Under Results so far…
2009/2010 Season:

Blackburn v West Ham      Under 2.5     0-0     Won
Stoke City v Sunderland     Under 2.5     1-0     Won
Swansea City v Watford     Under 2.5     1-1     Won
Doncaster Rovers v Cardiff City     Under 2.5     2-0     Won
Blackburn Rovers v Wolves    Under 2.5  3-1 Lost
Portsmouth v Bolton    Under 2.5 2-3 Lost
Tottenham v Man Utd    Over 2.5  1-3 Won
Bolton v Stoke    Under 2.5 1-1 Won
Hull City v Birmingham City    Under 2.5 0-1 Won

Cheers, Have a good weekend.

Betting strategies (part 2)

Mention Unders/Overs and I’ll wager most punters will immediately think of the 2.5 goals mark.
However Betfair patrons will be well aware that you can also bet on such Under/Over goal totals as 1.5 , 3.5 and 4.5 as well as the usual 2.5.
For those who are unfamiliar with these markets, it’s a case of "It does what is says on the tin". You choose the total you wish to BET or LAY and wait for the result. If you choose to BET Over 2.5 goals then providing the match doesn’t end, 0 – 0, 1 – 0, 0 – 1, 1 – 1, 2 – 0, or 0 – 2 then you have a winning bet. Should you BET Under 2.5 goals, then you want to see one of these scores. It sounds easy but you must be prepared to do a lot of research. Current scoring form of both sides. Who they’ve scored against recently and do check the Historical results of previous clashes between the two sides. What has happened in the past has a habit of repeating itself.     
Whilst many punters are happy to have a bet and then wait for the result, Unders/Overs tends to lend itself to Trading. Usual choice for Trading is on the UNDERS MARKET. Basically, before the game starts, you BACK at what you think is a fair price. Then when the price DROPS as the game progresses, you decide at what point to LAY and TRADE-OUT. Giving yourself a GREEN BOOK.

Sounds easy. If only it were that easy.
With this strategy you really must do your homework before having a bet.
As you want the game to stay goal-less for as long as possible, your first necessity is finding teams that are notorious for starting slowly. You also need to know which teams are "mean" defensively, or which teams find it hard to score goals.
CHELSEA are notorious for grinding out low scoring wins. So pit them against a team with a tight defence and you have the makings of a "Good Trade". 
The "BIGGIES" for this strategy are The Price at which to have your BACK BET, then how long to wait before you place your LAY BET. The price should be as near to 2.0 (evens), as possible. Experience, eventually, will tell you when to bet. Don’t be greedy, though. A harder task is the decision when to place your LAY BET. Here is where you do need to get the stats on your side. You can find necessary times, usually split into fifteen minutes periods, on the site mentioned below. The individual team stats are really useful.
Now this is yet another occasion when keeping records is essential. The more detailed the better. When patterns begin to emerge you’ll spot them straight away.

Many strategies are based on either Goals scored or Goals conceeded. Therefore you need to have all the stats at your finger-tips. There are numerous sites on the "net" that will provide you with most of what you need to know but to be absolutely certain you should try www.soccerstats.com With this site you’ll not go far wrong. 

Something Entirely Different. ONE.

I don’t know whether there is anyone out there who still does the "Pools". They barely get a mention these days.
A little bet I used the have, revolved around a strategy called "WHEELING".
Basically for the Treble Chance pool.
Forget about form, after all this is aimed at winning the BIG ONE so form, unfortunately has to go out of the window. Choose your coupon numbers, (I chose eleven). Then add the number either side of each one you’ve chosen. This will give you roughly three times your initial choice. (Depends on whether you choose Nos 1 and/or 49). Naturally you need a good perm to go with these numbers, but they’ll give you a good run for your money.
In the far off days, after we’d just moved on from bows and arrows, I did hit the Jackpot. £349.75p. Around £10,000. in todays money.
If there is enough interest, I’ll keep this thread alive.
Incidentally, why not try this with your lottery numbers?

Remember the the"D’s".
DISCIPLINE
DISCIPLINE and more,
DISCIPLINE.

Good Punting.

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