over under betting

Premiership and Championship 7 February Over / Under 2.5 Goals Recommendations

After 4 out of 4 predictions correct last week, I’m hoping to be successful again with these recommendations;
 
Sunderland v Stoke – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.66)

Sunderland look set to be without top scorer Cisse (9gls), McShane, Tainio, Nosworthy, Gordon & Ward when they welcome Stoke to the Stadium of Light.
Stoke also have injury worries with a doubt over Higginbotham (2assts,1gl) along with Wilkinson, Diao, Cort & Sidibe (1asst,3gls) all out.
As Cisse looks like he’ll miss the game, they don’t have too many options up front without him. Sunderland’s defence has tightened up considerably since Sbragia took over, and the only threat I can see is from James Beattie and Delap’s long throws.
 
West Brom v Newcastle – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.85)

The Baggies have a host of players out; Miller (1 asst,3gls), Clement & Greening (1 asst,1gl) are definitely out, along with Beattie (1gl), Valero (1asst) & Simpson (1gl), and there are doubts over Moore (1gl), Barnett, Olsson (1gl).
Brunt (1asst,3gls) and Morrison (3assts,3gls) are in good form though & will look to supply Bednar (1asst,6gls) & new signing Fortune (1asst,1gl) up front.
Newcastle also have many injuries; Martins (2 assts,6gls),Owen (8 gls),Barton (1asst,1gl), Kadar, Guthrie (2assts,2gls), Cacapa (1asst), Viduka (1asst), Beye (1asst) & Gonzalez all miss out.
Guiterrez (3assts) is suspended for 1 match.
N’Zogbia & Given lave left the club to Wigan and Man City respectively.
West Brom will fancy this one at home.
Both teams have a record of 9 out of 12 games (+2.5 goals), WBA at home & Newcastle away.
Defence is not their strong point, and so a free-flowing open game is on offer here.

Reading v Preston North End – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.85)

The Royals will be missing Ingimarsson (1gl), but Noel Hunt (2assts,11gls) should return.
Preston welcome back winger Ross Wallace (8assts,3gls), but Wayne Henderson, Liam Chilvers, Michael Hart and Neal Trotman all miss out.
With Stephen Hunt, Noel Hunt & Kevin Doyle for Reading at home, along with Wallace for Preston, I have to go for over 2.5 goals at the Madjeski Stadium.

Premiership and Championship 30 January – 1 February Over / Under Predictions

Doncaster v Norwich – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.70)

Rovers have serious doubts over Stock (1 asst,5gls) & Woods (2 assts,2gls) ahead of their Friday night relegation battle with Norwich City.
Coppinger (3 assts,2gls), Hird & Guy (1 asst,1gl) should return.
Norwich hope to have Fotheringham (3 assts,1gl) available.
Carney makes his debut for the Canaries tonight.
Only once in 13 home games have Doncaster been invloved in a match with 3 goals or more in total.
As there are also concerns over Stock & Woods fitness (3 assts,7gls between them), I can see another dour home performance from Doncaster, with very little action.

 
Wolves v Watford – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.70)

Wolves have Elokobi, Little & keeper Ikeme doubtful ahead of their clash with Watford.
Neill Collins (4gls) is suspended for 2 matches following his midweek sending off.
Watford have keeper Poom out for 6 months, along with long-term Gareth Williams.
I expect a back-lash from Wolves after their midweek defeat at Reading.
Wolves always score goals at home and with the firepower of Ebanks-Blake,Iwelumo & creativity of Kightly & Jarvis, they should be back on form at Molineaux. Watford also creat a lot of chances and with Smith & Priskin up front, and McAnuff the provider, I see this fixture producing a few goals.

 
Newcastle v Sunderland – Under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.85)

Newcastle’s injury woes continue with 12 players now sidelined, including Martins (2 assts,6gls) & Owen (8 gls), and N’Zogbia (hurt pride) after manager Kinnear mispronounced the player’s name!
I can’t see where goals are likely to come from for Newcastle & Sunderland could well take the honours in the Tyneside derby.
The Black Cats are still without Ward (back injury), Nosworthy, McCartney & Gordon. Kieran Richardson (2 assts,2gls) is struggling to be fit for this vital clash.
Not just because it’s a local derby, but also as Newcastle’s creative & attacking players are all injured!
I predict a low-scoring game with Sunderland just edging it 1-0.

Hull v West Brom – Over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 2.00)

George Boateng (1 asst) remains sidelined with a ligament tear, as Hull take on West Brom desperate to pick up some points. This will be a golden chance for Hull as West Brom have 7 players looking likely to be out.
Miller (1 asst,3gls), Clement & Greening (1 asst,1gl) are definitely out, and there are doubts over Moore (1gl), Barnett, Olsson (1gl) & Meite.
Although West Brom have a few players out, the fact that both of these sides do not know the meaning of defend points towards over 2.5 goals. Bednar & gang will create chances.
Bullard makes his home debut and should get a lot more space in which to create chances for Hull.
Hull have a strong over 2.5 ratio at home (8 -3) out of 11 games.

Championship 17/18 January Over / Under Predictions

Nottm Forest v Plymouth – under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.72)

Both sides are equal in that their respective records show that 9 out of 13 games (Forest at home & Plymouth away) have been under 2.5 goals. Forest have only scored 10 goals in total at home, whilst Plymouth have only managed 9. Nottm Forest’s Kevin Wilson & Nathan Tyson (3 goals) are doubtful, whilst Plymouth’s David McNamee is suspended.
With new manager Billy Davies at the helm, Forest won’t want to lose this one at home, but I think both sides will cancel each other out.
 
Sheff Wed v Charlton – under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.80)

Sheff Weds have the meanest defence at home (conceded 7) in the league. Out of 13 games at home, 11 have been under 2.5 goals. Charlton have only managed 9 away from home, and with arguably their best creative player, Bouazza moving to Birmingham, I fear the goals will dry up as a result for the Addicks. Semedo, Racon & Zhi are missing for Charlton, whilst Tudgay returns to Sheff Weds after injury.
 
Coventry v Blackpool – under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.72)

Blackpool’s record of 11 games out of 13 away being under 2.5 goals is the basis of my prediction for this one. Coventry have 4 regulars injured including Ward (1 assist,4 goals), and Blackpool (Edwards & McPhee doubtful) along with Dickinson (4 goals) gone, I can see a low-scoring encounter at Highfield Road.
 
Bristol City v Wolves – over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.85)

Bristol City fought well against Portsmouth in their midweek FA Cup replay & they could well carry this momentum into this home game against high-scoring Wolves. Although a few players are doubtful, Bristol City don’t depend on one top scorer, instead some 15 different players have netted for them so far. Wolves should welcome back Iwelumo (3 assists,13 goals),Ebanks-Blake(5 assists,16 goals) and together with Kightly (12 assists,7 goals) and Sam Vokes (3 goals) chipping in & an energetic Jarvis, it’s hard to ignore the high probability of goals at Ashton Gate.

Premiership 17/18 January Over / Under Predictions

Bolton v Man Utd – under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.70)

Bolton have only scored 8 goals at home, only Tottenham have scored fewer (7). With their creative players missing; Nolan (2 wassists) suspended, Gary Cahill (3 assists,2 goals) doubtful & Elmander (5 goals) injured (hamstring), it’s difficult to see Bolton scoring many goals with just Kevin Davies up front with little support.
Man Utd also have players missing; Evra (2 assists), Rooney (4 assists,5 goals) & Tevez who limped off in the midweek game against Wigan (if not doubtful then not 100% fully fit). Although they still have the likes of Ronaldo, Berbatov & Giggs at their disposal, Man Utd have also struggled to score away goals (9 in 10 games) , combine this with being a ‘Lancashire"derby and I can’t see this producing many goals.

 
Man City v Wigan – over 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.95)

There’s usually goals galore these days at Eastlands & Robinho (11 goals) is fit. Although missing Ireland (6 assists, 7 goals), I believe that between them, Man City (24 goals at home – equal with Man Utd record at home) & Wigan (Zaki 10 goals) along with Heskey & Valencia who can create opportunities, that there should be 3 goals or more in this fixture.

 
Tottenham v Portsmouth – under 2.5 goals (odds at Bet365: 1.80)

Tottenham have really struggled to score goals at home (lowest in league – 7), but have only conceded 7 also. With Portsmouth recently losing Defoe (3 assists,7 goals) back to Tottenham, Crouch has lost a valuable strike partner. Incidentally, Portsmouth also have only scored 7 goals in total on their travels thus far. Add this to Harry Redknapp facing up to his old side, and a tightly fought affair is on the cards, the likely result being a low scoring game.

I wonder whether anyone is using stats in an attempt to conquer the various goal scoring (correct scores or over/under) betting markets. With the glut of stats available I’m sure there can be some hope of finding some very helpful pointers.

The first thing to consider MUST be recent form. Teams who have got their shooting boots on, usually stand out a mile. The same can be said for teams whose defence has more holes than a collander. For me these are the type of teams that I DON’T want to consider. Simply because games concerning them have a habit of getting out of the "normal" run of things. Sometimes the expected glut of goals happen but there are just as many times when they don’t appear.

A recent game in this category was Man United versus Sunderland. Surely Sunderland’s weak defence would capitulate against Tevez, Roo or whoever Fergie decided to put out. The not unexpected happened, and Sunderland just kept their men behind the ball. What should have been an expected 3 or 4 goal rout, ended with 1 goal in the 90th minute. I suppose what I’m trying to say is." don’t go for the obvious".
 
Check out recent goals per game averages. Say over the last 5 games. First, decide which teams you’re going to disregard. The BIG-HITTERS at the moment are Liverpool, Chelsea and Man. Utd.  STRING-BAG defences are West Brom and Blackburn. Forget these five sides and look at the remaining games. For the home sides record their goals for average in the last 5 games. For the away sides record their goals against averages for last 5 games. These figures will all contain decimal points. Crucial to remember.

How to use these figures? There will be a few ways to use these figures. You can try multiplying the home teams figure by the away teams figure. You’ll get a figure from around, 0.5 up to, possibly 5.0. This will give you a rough idea of how many goals to expect in the game. You must decide how these goals will be distributed between the two.sides to place correct scores bets. 
Of course there’ll be days when these "guesses" are well of course, but there’ll be good days too.

I don’t like picking out "instances" but these five games were played Saturday and Sunday. (Only qualifiers).
Stoke v Fulham,  forecast  0.84 goals   Result. 0 – 0.
City v Everton,  forecast  1.80 goals   Result . 0 – 1.
‘Boro v Arsenal, forecast  1.12 goals Result. 1 – 1.
Villa v Bolton, forecast  0.80 goals. Result 4 – 2.
Portsmouth v Newcastle, forecast 2.16 goals. Result 0 – 3.
The only game well out of range was Villa’s. 
 
This is not meant to be seen as any kind of system. More a way for assessing the possible number of goals likely in a game.  Then for correct scores betting of course, you have to decide how the goals will be distributed.   So, one problem solved (?) but another one ready made. Or you rather bet on over/under bets.
 
This is of course a very simple way of tackling the problem. More complicated methods of arriving at similar solutions are out there. The Poisson Distribution comes to mind but that will keep for another occasion.  
 
A word to the wise. Relating to my Matched Betting article. Blue Square and 888sport have been getting a litle lax of late and punters have found it necessary to get in  touch with Customer Service  to get their bonus bets. Be aware.