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Formula One Betting – Red Bull to Wing their Way to Title

March 8th, 2010 / paul

I must admit, I’m still basking a little in the glory of picking out Jenson Button and Brawn GP for success in last year’s Formula One Championship. Alas, I can’t promise you 9-1 and 8-1 winners in the Drivers’ and Constructors’ title races this season but I still think there’s a bit of value to be had in the ante-post markets ahead of this week’s opening GP in Bahrain. For once, there’s been plenty to capture the imagination during the close season, not least Michael Schumacher’s return to the cockpit. The German rightly demands iconic status having won more Grand Prix and F1 World Championships than any other driver in history. One does have to question, however, how much hunger he still has after three years spent testing motorbikes and acting as an advisior for Ferrari. Considering his close relationship with the Italian giants it is also strange that he’s making his comeback with Mercedes. The fact that the innovative Ross Brawn is now chief designer at Mercedes will have heavily influenced Schumacher’s decision to return but I fear the physical strain of a long GP season may be too much for the 41-year-old and would willingly lay boylesports, extrabet and sportingbet’s 13-2 about him making a fairytale comeback to the Drivers’ Championship. Then, of course, there’s the battle of the Britons at McLaren. If Lewis Hamilton is feeling any signs of insecurity about having the current world champion join him at Woking, he certainly isn’t showing it. For the second year in a row, McLaren will have the number one driver in their ranks but, no matter how much practice he’s undergone, it’s going to take a few hours race time for Jenson Button to get the feel of his new car and that’s where Hamilton may hold the edge over his compatriot. The 2008 champion finished last season with a flourish and can carry that momentum forward to this campaign so bwin’s 9-2 is sure to attract support as oppose to Button’s widely available 14-1 quote for back-to-back titles. As always, of course, Ferrari will be competitive. Fernando Alonso is the ante-post favourite (a best 11-4) to bring home the title in his first season in the famous red car but it remains to be seen how the confidence of Felipe Massa (9-1 with bet365, skybet and sportingbet) has been affected by his horrific crash last year and Ferrari are worth opposing in the Constructors’ Championship (2-1 with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes) on that score. How about a punt on Red Bull in that market? There have been early signs this year that Renault have finally developed an engine to match Ferrari and McLaren and new regulations, which have effectively slowed down the cars, may well play into their hands this season. Australian Mark Webber (20-1 on betfair) broke his duck in F1 in Germany last year and is sure to make his presence felt again this time around but their number one driver looks to be rising star Sebastian Vettel, who pushed Button all the way last year and must surely go close again in 2010 with a stronger start. My money will be on the young German at 5-1 with boylesports. His team are priced at 10-3 with the same firm to win the Constructors’ Championship.

 

 




Oscars Betting – Meryl’s French Chef the Oscars Value

March 4th, 2010 / paul

Kathryn Bigelow was divorced from James Cameron in 1991. They continued to work together, however, Bigelow directing Strange Days in 1995 to Cameron’s script and, according to Hollywood sources, remain good friends. Cameron, director of Titanic and the Alien franchise, may have to swallow a little pride however if, as expected, his sci-fi epic Avatar is pipped at the post by Bigelow’s powerful Iraq War drama The Hurt Locker for the Best Picture at this year’s Oscars. The Hurt Locker’s budget pales into insignificance alongside the $300million splashed out on Avatar, but Bigelow’s film about US bomb disposal teams has hit all the right notes with critics whereas Cameron’s spectacular animated yarn has been more popular with cinema-goers, who nowadays seem to prefer adventure to gritty drama. The Hurt Locker (evens with bwin) wiped the floor with its likely chief rival at the Baftas, which are usually a decent guide to how the voting will go in Hollywood, but Avatar remains popular with punters who think the’blue’ movie will come out on top this week and it’s now no bigger than 5-4 (bet365 and betfred) to scoop the Best Film award. Whatever her fate in this section, however, Bigelow will surely win the Best Director award for which she is best 1-4 (victor chandler, Paddy Power, bwin). Colin Firth earned rave reviews for his performance in A Single Man but can be backed at 18-1 on betfair to be handed the Best Actor award with most pundits predicting Jeff Bridges already has that category sewn up with his portrayal of a fading country and western singer in Crazy Heart (Bridges‘ best price is 1-6), while the Brits may also be left out in the cold in the Best Actress category. Both Dame Helen Mirren (66-1 with Coral) and relative newcomer Carey Mulligan (12-1 with bwin) have been nominated but face Hollywood big guns Sandra Bullock (4-6 with betfred, blue square and 888sport) and Meryl Streep (a general 2-1). I must admit, I thought Streep, who last won an Oscar in the early 80s, was brilliantly funny as chef Julia Childs in Julie And Julia, almost funny enough to make me forgive her for Mamma Mia, and she’d be my choice ahead of Mulligan, who still has a big future in the movie business if her early work is an indicator.




Horse Racing Betting – Nacarat Set For Encore in RP Chase

February 25th, 2010 / paul

Nacarat’s demolition of a 20-strong field in last year’s Racing Post Chase at Kempton will live long in the memory and Tom George appears to have specifically prepared his charge for a repeat bid 12 months later. I’ll accept that the grey is closely matched with top weight Madison Du Berlais (9-1 with Victor Chandler) on their run together behind Kauto Star in the King George over the same course and distance in December but David Pipe’s gelding disappointed at Cheltenham next time and it remains to be seen if first-time blinkers instead of his usual cheekpieces will re-ignite his enthusiasm. Nacarat, on the other hand, has plenty going for him here not least the fact that Tony McCoy, on board for two of his three wins over fences in this country, is back in the saddle. This is a race in which the classier chasers towards the head of the handicap have dominated in recent years so Nacarat, set to carry 11st8lb, is firmly in the preferred weight range and may still be a bit of value at Paddy Power’s 4-1. There has also been support this week for Emma Lavelle’s Kilcrea Castle (into a general 6-1), who was third to The Sawyer over 2m6f at Ascot last month. But I can’t see any reason why he should overturn that form with runner-up Miss Mitch, despite having a slight turnaround in the weights. The Alners’ mare has never won over 3m under rules but she gives every indication the extra distance won’t worry her and looks a cast-iron each-way alternative at 7-1 with sportingbet. With Paul NichollsFistral Beach (6-1 with William Hill) set to race from out of the handicap proper, the pick of the lightweights may be Oedipe. He was only 10th in this last year but was much more like his old self when fourth on his belated reappearance at Sandown earlier this month and is now dangerously well handicapped on the form he showed when landing a valuable handicap at Aintree in April 2008. Providing he doesn’t get too far behind in the early stages, a small each-way saver at a general 14-1 could reap some reward.




Winter Olympics Betting – Riesch Ready to Grab Combined Gold

February 11th, 2010 / paul

It’s probably fair to say that the Winter Olympics didn’t figure too highly when British bookmakers were compiling their list of potentially lucrative sporting events in 2010. Full marks to a few, however, who have priced up most of the major competitions and have made an effort to attract UK punters unfamiliar with many of the athletes by also quoting on things like which country will top the final medal table and what will be Britain’s eventual medal haul. One also gets the impression that a few of the odds compilers are rather fencing in the dark when it comes to some of the markets and there are opportunities for backers with a little knowledge to back up their judgement. For example, all talk pre-Games in the women’s alpine skiing events has centred around Lindsey Vonn. Undoubtedly, the American is a talent as a record of nine World Cup victories this winter suggests. But bookmakers seem to be almost brushing under the carpet the fact that Vonn has a shin injury which may yet mean her missing the Olympics. One would presume, therefore, that the blonde pin-up would be concentrating her efforts on winning her favourite event the downhill (for which she is a best 2-1 with Paddy Power) rather than risk all in the women’s combined which contains a slalom section. Now I can’t profess to having an insight into the best technique for the slalom but I’m pretty sure all that twisting and turning at high speed is the last thing you’d need if your shins were aching. Slalom, anyway, isn’t Vonn’s speciality and she shouldn’t be able to challenge Maria Riesch in the women’s combined. Riesch has finished on the podium in six of her last seven World Cup starts overall and has made the frame in four of seven slalom events, while her likely main rival hasn’t even managed to complete in three of this winter’s races in the more technical event. Riesch can still be backed at 2-1 with betfred to win the women’s combined, that price will almost certainly contract in the days ahead. The men’s downhill is the Games‘ blue riband event with skiers bidding to carve their name on a role of honour that includes superstars like Jean-Claude Killy, Franz Klammer and Fritz Strobl. Didier Cuche is the market leader (9-2 with coral) as he bids to become the first Swiss winner of the Olympic downhill since the great Pirmin Zurbriggen in Calgary in 1988. Home favourite Robbie Dixon has been showing up well in training on the Dave Murray piste in Vancouver as he bids to emulate Ed Podivinsky, the only previous Canadian to have won a medal in the downhill, and might be worth an each-way interest with coral at 25-1 as he is only half that price with many of the other leading layers. But this could be the competition in which young gun Carlo Janka finally comes of age. The 23-year-old Swiss showed what he is capable of when winning three World Cup races in as many days in Colorado at the start of the season and, with Cuche slightly hampered with a broken thumb and desperate to succeed in what is probably his last Games, may be able to cash in on the weight of expectation on his team mate’s shoulders. The 14-1 on offer from Victor Chandler and William Hill is simply too good to resist.




The Cheltenham Festival is approaching…and so are those bookmaker free bets!

February 10th, 2010 / dave

Many of us won’t need reminding that the highlight of the National Hunt season is taking place in March, with Cheltenham providing us with four days of high quality horse racing that represent one of the busiest periods of the UK betting calendar.

Starting on Tuesday 16th March and finishing on Friday 19th March, this four-day period will see the bookmakers really go to town with their free bet offerings. With so many people wanting to bet on the Cheltenham Festival these days, you will see many bookies increase their new customer bonus, while existing customers can also expect to see a few emails in their inbox which offer them a free matched bet.

It doesn’t matter if you’re not the world’s biggest horse racing enthusiast as the bookmakers don’t always specifically require you to place qualifying or free bets on a particular market. Therefore, if you’re predominantly someone who bets on soccer, tennis or cricket, then you can often simply take advantage of the firms wanting to appeal to the many potential customers who will be betting on some or all of the twenty-six races that are being run at Cheltenham.

It’s particularly worth keeping your eyes peeled for what William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral are prepared to offer new and existing customers. The ‘Big Three’ in terms of UK high street presence aren’t renowned for being overly generous with their free bet offering, although horse racing is a hugely important sport for these firms and we might expect to see them double their current £25 free bet offers or even quadruple them. Therefore, this might be the perfect time to open an account with these bookmakers if you haven’t already done so.

As far as betting on the Cheltenham Festival is concerned, the races are very competitive and it’s hard work to make a profit. If you are looking to place some horse racing wagers and increase your balance, you need to be disciplined and only pick a handful of races in which to place a bet. There are many ‘bankers’ that get tipped ahead of the Festival, although previous years have shown us that very few of these good things actually finish first in their race!

The highlight event of the week is the Gold Cup, which takes place on Friday 19th March. There’s the exciting prospect of Kauto Star and Denman going head-to-head once again, with Paddy Power offering a best price 11/8 that the former wins this race for the third time, although it was Denman who won the event in 2008. Ladbrokes offer 9/4 that no other runner lives with the high cruising speed of the Paul Nicholls horse.

Dunguib runs in the first race of the Festival and will be heavily backed to get the punters off to a flyer. Paddy Power and Coral both offer 5/6 that there plenty of hats thrown into the air as the horse passes the post in first place, and this appears to be one of the few occasions where an odds-on favourite merits the price.




Horse Racing Betting – Tartak To Plunder Blue Square Cash

February 4th, 2010 / paul

The frost may have deprived us of one major national hunt betting heat at Doncaster last week but the weather forecast for Town Moor looks more favourable for this weekend and I fancy the talented Tartak to go very close in the Blue Square Handicap Chase. Traditionally, this is a race in which the up-and-coming classy chasers excel. No horse carrying less than 11st has triumphed since 2003, while you would have to go back another year to find a winner aged nine or older. Take into account those stats and what, on paper, looks a very tricky puzzle to solve suddenly becomes less complex. I’ve a lot of respect for top weight Kalahari King (available at 10-1) but trainer Ferdy Murphy has already stated that his season-long target is the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March, for which he is also a general 10-1 chance, so this run might be needed after a 287-day break. Not surprisingly, Paul Nicholls‘ two runners are well to the fore in the betting with stable jockey Ruby Walsh preferring the consistent Free World (5-1 in most places), who has been placed in his last six starts, ahead of last year’s winner I’msingingtheblues. The latter, available at a general 8-1, is 7lbs higher in the weights this time around. But if you’re looking for value (and who isn’t), how about Tartak? The seven-year-old can be backed at 12-1 with totesport, betfred, victor chandler, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and William Hill, who seem to have priced up Tom George’s gelding on the basis that he’s never won over a trip this short before. His stamina, however, is what attracts him to me in this contest. He’s been pitched in against top-class opposition so far this term and was far from disgraced when 5th in the Arkle Chase last season over 2m when finishing ahead of I’msingingtheblues (4lbs worse off). The weights today also give him every chance of reversing that form with runner-up Kalahari King and, with a plethora of front-runners to ensure a strong gallop, Tartak should also have the race run to suit. You only have to go back to Aintree last year, when Tartak beat Deep Purple, Planet Of Sound and Calgary Bay, to realise that he shouldn’t be anywhere near his current price!




Rugby Union Betting – Irish Set For Six Nations Encore

February 1st, 2010 / paul

France are 13-8 favourites with Blue Square, Stan James and 888sport to win rugby union’s Six Nations, which gets under way at the weekend, and as short as 11-8 in places. Are they having a laugh? Seriously, how could anyone put money on Les Bleus while the enigmatic Marc Lievremont remains in charge? Prone to unfathomable errors of judgement where team matters are concerned and liable to change a winning formula on a whim, half the time not even the French themselves seem to know what to expect from their team and that would be amajor worry for anyone thinking of following the market. Despite their clubs dominating in the Heineken Cup this season, they are just too unpredictable to back in my eyes and it’s no coincidence that they haven’t won the Six Nations title for six years. So with Italy (250-1 with most bookmakers) again set for their annual role as whipping boys – who are we putting up? Well, in all honesty, there can only be one answer. Ireland, I believe, are a class apart from the other northern hemisphere countries at the moment, a fact reflected in the autumn internationals against the big teams from south of the equator. A victory over South Africa and a pulsating draw against the Wallabies was followed up by a demolition job on Fiji, results which put the efforts of their Six Nations rivals in the shade. Brian O’Driscoll is still the best in his position in the world, and Rob Kearney can also rightly call himself world-class nowadays as well. Add to that, a powerful pack and the experience of last year’s Grand Slam and you should have a winning formula. I wouldn’t have marked up the Irish anywhere near the widely avaiable 5-2 and, though they have to go to Paris and Twickenham this season, another Irish Grand Slam (generally 6-1) is by no means out of the question. Extrabet have also priced up straight forecast odds this year and I might be interested in the Ireland-Scotland combo at 40-1. The Scots are a bit like the French in that you never know what you are going to get but they may have made a shrewd move in appointing Andy Robinson as coach and won’t be easy to beat if the autumn internationals are a good guide. A remarkable victory over Australia showed what the Scots can do when they stick to their game plan and they are more than capable of springing a couple of surprises this term. England’s dismal showing in last year’s champiosnhip and an injury-hit autumn doesn’t inspire confidence that they’ll be in the shake-up so extrabet and totesport’s 5-1 looks short but what of Wales? Winners of the Grand Slam in 2008 but disappointing in the main last season, they looked a dispirited bunch on their last outing at the Millenium Stadium and would probably have to win at Twickenham on the opening day if they are to get themselves back on track. I think that’s unlikely and I’m not remotely interested in Paddy Power and Ladbrokes‘ quote of 5-1 against the Welsh winning the Six Nations – that’s reserved for the men in green!




Novelty Betting – Brit Awards Set To Be Girls’ Big Night Out

January 30th, 2010 / paul

I can’t remember a time when the music scene was so dominated by female artistes and that fact is mirrored by the Brit Awards nominations which lean heavily towards the female persuasion this year. Take, for example, the market for best British single. Reality TV escapees JLS are just about hanging onto favouritism, Coral offering 7-4 that ‘Beat Again‘ picks up the main gong. But it’s obvious that Cheryl Cole’s debut solo single ‘Fight For This Love‘ will be a serious challenger on the night. Indeed, Skybet make the Girls Aloud star and X Factor judge their 11-8 favourite, though she can be backed at 15-8 with bet365 and boylesport. ‘Bad Boys‘ (Alexandra Burke featuring Flo Rida) is another single that caught the public’s imagination and is a 10-1 chance with bet365 and Paddy Power to win the award, while others prominent in the betting include Lily Allen’s ‘The Fear‘ which is a general 12-1 shot and Pixie Lott’s ‘Mama Do‘, 16-1 with bet365 and boylesport. The best album category is more clear cut if you believe the bookmakers, with Florence & The Machine’s ‘Lungs’ backed to almost the exclusion of all others. Bet365 and Paddy Power’s 4-9 is the biggest price you’ll get now but that sounds plenty short enough to me. This is an album which you’ll either love or hate and something with propensity to divide opinion to such a degree can’t be value at such restrictive odds. ‘Lungs‘ may have been in the album top 40 since last summer but I’ve an inkling that the innovative Paolo Nutini’s ‘Sunny Side Up’, which the Daily Telegraph described as ‘ragtime swing with horny energy’, could usurp it on the big night. Bet365 are quoting Nutini’s second album, a quirky mix of soul, jazz and country, at 20-1 but its chance of polling the most votes shouldn’t be underestimated.




Horse Racing Betting – Ranger To Make Long Trip Profitable

January 29th, 2010 / paul

I know how much of a trek it is from Devon to Doncaster. I used to go to school within hailing distance of Town Moor and most years our annual holiday consisted of an 11-hour drive down to the west country to spend two weeks in a static caravan, usually to stare at puddles in Ilfracombe. Nowadays, of course, a much-improved road network means you can cut that journey time in half but it still represents a significant undertaking transporting a horse those 270 miles and not one that a trainer like Victor Dartnall would consider without good reason. Therefore, I’d ask you to mull over carefully the reasons why the aptly-named Exmoor Ranger is in South Yorkshire this weekend. For starters, this is a chaser very much on the upgrade judged on his comfortable win at Newbury in late November. That didn’t look a great race at first glance but third Victorias Groom has won twice since to boost the form and, going on previous runnings, Exmoor Ranger slots nicely into the ideal weight/age range for this week’s Skybet Chase and should be suited by the easy 3m. With his jumping problems apparently behind him now and top Irish jockey Davy Russell booked, the general 9-1 is well worth the gamble. Theatrical Moment steps out of novice company and onto a reasonable mark for his handicap debut over fences but his best price (Coral’s 9-1) reflects this, while layers are being similarly avaricious with the prolific Seven Is My Number (a general 7-1). My worries about the latter would be that he is too high in the weights considering he was effectively handed his two most recent wins on a plate and is up against far more experienced rivals here. Allied to that, David Pipe’s gelding may struggle to confirm Bangor form with Khachaturian on 8lbs worse terms and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing the latter, who looks well treated, at Paddy Power’s 12-1. Soft ground would bring Gone To Lunch (a general 25-1) into the equation, providing he’s fully recovered from his Welsh National exertions, but those conditions wouldn’t suit last month’s C&D winner Calgary Bay (11-1 with bet365), who is 11lbs higher today, while Killyglen (widely available at 11-1) has questions to answer after a shocking effort in the Hennessy at Newbury in November. General 12-1 chance Trabolgan looks a light of former days so we are sticking with Exmoor Ranger to bring home the spoils.




Tennis Betting – Melbourne Draw May Have Been Kind To Murray

January 15th, 2010 / paul

Here we go again – will 2010 prove to be another year waiting for Andy Murray to finally come of age and land a Grand Slam, or will he prove all of his doubters wrong? I’m going to stick my neck out and say it will the latter because, put quite simply, Murray is simply too good not to make the breakthrough sooner rather than later.  The 22-year-old Scot shows no sign of being under pressure to end a frustrating run of near-misses in the tournaments that really that matter and his patience could well be rewarded in the Australian Open at Melbourne over the next couple of weeks. Hardcourt is undoubtedly Murray’s favoured sphere (five of his six tournament wins on the ATP Tour last year were on the surface) and he looked in pretty good nick in last week’s Hopman Cup, despite a surprise singles defeat in the final to Tommy Robredo. Some might argue that dropping to fifth in the world rankings has done no favours to Murray in Melbourne. Holder Rafael Nadal is now a possible quarter-final opponent with US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro seeded to await the winner of that one in the last four. However, there are big questions marks against those two at present. Del Potro, a general 6-1 chance, pulled out of last week’s AAMI Classic with a wrist injury and has been nursing a sore knee for the past few weeks, while reigning champion Nadal hasn’t won an ATP title for more than eight months. The Spaniard (4-1 with totesport), despite holding a 7-2 career verdict over Murray, clearly doesn’t get around the court as quickly as he did before last year’s serious injury and, though still having all the shots in his arsenal, may be vulnerable against Murray’s mobility. Of course, even if he reaches the final, the Scot (13-2 with betfred, Victor Chandler and Paddy Power) will still have to beat either Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic. Federer (3-1 with boylesports and extrabet) is bidding for an amazing 16th Grand Slam, having bounced back from defeat in an epic final against Nadal in Melbourne 12 months ago to win at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon. He also lost out to Djokovic here in 2008, however, and maybe this tournament comes a little too early in the season for him nowadays. Indeed, I believe Djokovic may be the one to emerge from the top half of the draw. He’s been in cracking shape on the ATP Tour over the last few months, winning in Beijing, Basel and Paris at the latter end of 2009, and betfair’s 8-1 is a cracking bet considering he’ll make the semi-finals at least on all known form. Backing the Serbian and the Scot at either end of the draw seems a sensible policy to me with doubts over their three main rivals.















































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