paul nicholls

All true National Hunt racing fans still know the bet365 Gold Cup as the Whitbread. Sponsors may come and go but this traditional end-of-season finale still retains all the drama of yesteryear and some true greats are scattered among the list of previous winners. Arkle and Mill House won it in the Sixties, Diamond Edge won it twice, as did Topsham Bay, and who could forget Desert Orchid‘s brilliant weight-carrying performance in 1988? Big weights have never been a barrier to success but those at the foot of the handicap have also had their fair share of success and this year’s renewal looks as open as ever.

A race like this is the perfect tonic for the controversy that’s rocked British racing this week and Sandown‘s mixed meeting always attracts a decent crowd. Paul Nicholls won the bet365 Gold Cup last year with Tidal Bay and supplies the top weight again, though Michel Le Bon (16/1 with William Hill) isn’t in the same league as his stablemate. Away We Go is now vying for favouritism (a general 8/1) after his second in the Irish Grand National but Willie Mullins‘ 10-year-old had a hard race that day. Muirhead (a general 20/1) was sixth and may get closer this time but just as interesting is the much-improved Well Refreshed (9/1 with BetVictor, bet365 and Skybet). He’s taken an inevitable rise up the rankings but was impressive when beating a decent field in the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February.

Same Difference won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival last month and is available at 8/1 in most places. He looks better handicapped than another novice, Hadrian’s Approach (also a general 8/1) but may struggle to reverse earlier running in the Racing Plus Chase with DUKE OF LUCCA. Richard Johnson prefers Balthazar King (a general 14/1) of Philip Hobbs‘ two runners but may have made the wrong choice. Tom O’Brien‘s mount may be fresher than most having only had four runs this season. He did finish behind Hold On Julio in the Hennessy at Newbury but the latter (12/1 with Coral and William Hill) needs forgiving a poor run at Ascot recently and has been disappointing overall. Duke Of Lucca was far from disgraced when sixth at Aintree last time and Skybet’s 20/1 is a fair price for each-way punters.

Of the remainder, Quentin Collonges (a general 12/1) came back to form at Doncaster when beating Mr Moss (also a general 12/1) and will be in the firing-line from the outset but Galaxy Rock (14/1 in most places) hasn’t seen action since an horrific fall at Cheltenham and is probably best watched., though he’ll like the ground and has stamina in abundance.

With no Big Buck’s to wax lyrical about this year, one wonders what the pundits are going to find to say about the Ladbrokes World Hurdle.

The absence of the Stewart family’s superstar has obviously taken a little gloss of the third day’s feature, and you get the impression the crown will only be borrowed should Paul Nicholls manage to get his champion stayer back to the course in one piece. But there is a first prize of more £150,000 to be won and Big Buck’s’ non-appearance won’t be noticed once the tapes go up. The Irish challengers are so closely matched that it’s almost impossible to separate them and I’m not sure any of them will really appreciate the drying ground. Oscar Whisky and his recent conqueror Reve De Sivola are vying for favouritism at a general 4/1. The former barely gets 3m and I expect the latter to confirm course running and land this if the pace is strong enough.

The postponed Glenfarclas Handicap Chase will be run at the end of the card if the cross-country course passes an inspection and I’ll stick with my original selection, Bostons Angel, at 8/1 with Coral, Stan James and William Hill, with a saver on the potentially well handicapped Any Currency at 14/1 with BetVictor, Skybet and Stan James.

Dynaste can get punters off to a good start in the Jewson Novices’ Chase at 7/4 with Blue Square and 888sport as his form looks solid and he’s already won easily over track and trip while I wouldn’t mind a little each-way bet on the 25/1 about Captain Sunshine in the Pertemps Final (Coral). It would probably be best to wait until the last minute as Emma Lavelle‘s charge doesn’t like lining up but he’s got the talent to play a part if jumping off on terms.

Cue Card (7/2 with bet365) is a brilliant jumper and can reverse Kempton running with Champion Court (7/1 with the same firm) in the Ryanair Chase and should also hold off the consistent First Lieutenant (11/4 with Coral) while there are plenty of chasers with scope for improvement in the Byrne Group Plate. Cantlow has been brought along quietly by Paul Webber but can complete the hat-trick upped in distance at bet365 and Skybet’s 15/2. He looks to be on attractive handicap mark. Some old favourites line up for the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Trophy Handicap Chase and this is one race at The Festival in which the experienced chasers are usually worth following. Alfie Sherrin, a winner at the meeting last year, will be popular at the general 10/1 but probable favourite Super Duty (5/1 general) appears to have plenty of weight on his handicap debut. Alfie Sherrin’s stablemate Galaxy Rock can run a big race at Skybet’s 16/1 but Ladbrokes’ 20/1 about Chartreux looks too big and he gets the vote with the accomplished Jamie Codd in the saddle.

Mr Mole gave weight and a beating to multiple winner Home Run on only his third outing over hurdles at Taunton. As he beat the very useful Melodic Rendezvous on his hurdling debut at Exeter, it’s no surprise that punters have latched on to A P McCoy‘s mount in this weekend’s Paddy Power Imperial Cup at Sandown.

There’s a big bonus prize on offer for any horse that wins this Listed contest and goes on to land a race at next week’s Cheltenham Festival and Mr Mole also has an entry in the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle next Friday, for which he is a 10/1 chance with William Hill. Paul Nicholls‘ five-year-old is only a best 7/2 with Blue Square, BetVictor and 888sport to win the County Hurdle, however, which looks a touch short in a maximum field of 24 and I think I’ve found one to beat him.

TOMINATOR is similarly unexposed over timber but, as a decent stayer on the Flat, is probably better handicapped. Winner of the Northumberland Plate in 2011, he looked poised to land last year’s Cesarewitch when taking the lead inside the final quarter-mile but just got run out of it in the closing stages. He’s won at Bangor and over this course and distance over hurdles and can be forgiven his run in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in between when he pulled too hard and made several mistakes. His latest victory is working out well and, off a mark of 130, Jonjo O’Neill’s grey looks the one to be on at Boylesports and Coral‘s 10/1.

Other interesting candidates include last year’s winner Paintball (18/1 with Coral), who is only a pound higher than 12 months ago and runs his best races at this time of year, and Tanerko Emery. The top weight is a best 10/1 but has risen a further 6lb in the weights since finishing third over 2m4f at Ffos Las and that may prove his undoing. Valdez (22/1 with Coral) also appears to have his fair share of weight while none of Nicky Henderson’s trio (Lyvius, First In the Queue and General Miller) make much appeal but John Ferguson has a couple of likely sorts in the line-up.

Pine Creek is a general 12/1 and on a hat-trick after victories in novice company at Leicester and Doncaster while Jack Quinlan takes 3lb off the headstrong Cayman Islands. The big field might enable the latter to settle a little better and the general 20/1 could prove a decent each-way bet if that’s the case. The 22/1 with bet365 and Coral about French import Le Bacardy also makes some appeal.

Bookmakers are largely siding with Paul Nicholls‘ The Knoxs in Saturday’s Stan James Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury but I suggest that’s more to do with connections rather than the 10-year-old’s form. Yes, he has won three times over fences and twice over 2m4f. But he’s also fallen three times in seven starts, including over the C&D on his only appearance this season. If he was trained by anyone else, he’d be twice the current best odds (5/1 with Paddy Power, Stan James and William Hill). If you have to have Nicholls on your side, have a small wager on stablemate Pacha Du Polder. He has proved equally wayward but did win a Grade 2 at Ayr last April and could be a spring horse. The 14/1 with Skybet and William Hill does at least afford an opportunity for an each-way bet.

David Pipe‘s Garynella has also been popular with punters (5/1 with several layers) but, again, one has to have reservations. Maybe he’s been showing up well at home because his record on the track doesn’t suggest he’s up to winning at this level. He managed just one success in six races over fences in the French Provinces and was beaten a long way on his UK debut at Cheltenham in December. There may well be more to come but you are gambling on potential rather than proof at those odds.

Venetia Williams‘ stable is in a rich vein of form and her mare Pepite Rose is an 8/1 chance here with bet365, Skybet and Stan James. She won a Listed race at the course last March but her two runs this season suggest she’s not really progressed, though she can be forgiven her latest run on heavy going at Ascot. Tony Star is 10/1 with bet365, BetVictor and William Hill but lacks experience and doesn’t appear particularly well handicapped and Micheal Flips (a general 12/1) has disappointed this season, but Midnight Sail (9/1 with Paddy Power and Skybet) is a consistent sort and arrives off the back of a victory at Kempton. Wincanton scorer Saved By John could also have each-way claims at bet365 and the sponsors’ 14/1 but it’s more difficult to make a case for Aintree-bound Ballabriggs, Mahogany Blaze and Bahrain Storm. Mr Gardner is another who may not be the force of old. That leaves BIG FELLA THANKS, who is the selection.

I’ll be jumping on the top weight at William Hill’s stand-out 9/1 after he came right back to his best when beating Consigliere by more than four lengths over a similar trip at Wincanton with the remainder, including Mr Gardner, strung out like last week’s washing. The runner-up won easily at Ayr next time so the form stands up and Big Fella Thanks won this race in 2010 when trained by Paul Nicholls. It looks like Tom George has the old boy firing on all cylinders again and he’s the value again despite a 9lb leap in the weights.

When it comes to the Racing Plus Chase (formerly the Racing Post Chase) Philip Hobbs has been the trainer to follow over the last 10 years. In that time, three winners have come from Minehead while six of his 12 runners in total have made the frame. He has two entries this year including 2011 winner Quinz but the nine-year-old has failed to complete in any of the three races he’s contested since that success. Duke Of Lucca has a chance of reversing Ascot running in November with Roberto Goldback on 8lb better terms, however, and did at least complete in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury subsequently unlike the latter. But I still wouldn’t be rushing to back him at the general 12/1.

Nacarat won the race 12 months ago, ahead of Hector’s Choice, and was third to Quinz a year earlier. This will have been his target and the grey should make a bold bid again off only a pound higher mark so there will be plenty of interest at the general 9/1. Summery Justice ran a nice race on his belated reappearance at Sandown and could figure off bottom weight at the general 20/1 but it looks like the handicapper has got to grips with Mister Hyde and Same Difference (12/1 with bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes and William Hill) faces a stiff task on what he’s shown so far.

Rolling Aces (a general 10/3) beat subsequent winner Opening Batsman (9/1 with most bookmakers) by 11 lengths at Wincanton on Boxing Day and should confirm the form. A Paul Nicholls runner has started favourite for this Grade 3 handicap in each of the last five years and he also runs the once-useful What A Friend but it looks likely that WYCK HILL will be sent off at the head of the market this year.

Owner J P McManus also has Quantitiveeasing in the race but he’s a doubtful stayer, even on a sharp track like Kempton, and A P McCoy has chosen to ride David Bridgwater‘s much-improved nine-year-old. Though 7lb higher than when scoring at Ascot last time, you can understand why. The runner-up, Katenko, has won twice since and is on course for a tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup suggesting Wyck Hill is still very well handicapped and he receives the nomination even though bookmakers are taking no chances at the general 11/4.

The publication of the John Smith’s Grand National weights always creates a buzz and many punters can’t resist trying to beat the bookmakers by backing an old favourite, even though we are still almost two months away from the big day.

BetVictor are offering to return all stakes on non-runners from now on as a free bet, which is a step in the right direction, though you should use the comparison sites to check if your selection isn’t advertised at bigger odds elsewhere as I’ve noticed they are only going 11/1 about early  favourite Prince De Beauchene, who is 12/1 with most other layers (we won’t even discuss what Ladbrokes are doing with an 8/1 quote).

Prince De Beauchene is one of seven entries from Willie Mullins‘ Muine Beag yard and has already won on the Mildmay course at Aintree. He’s been very lightly campaigned recently so is probably being prepared for the National, though stablemate On My Own (14/1 with Betfred and Coral) also has the right credentials. Tidal Bay (a general 14/1) heads the weights this year and has come right back to his best over the last 12 months. He was second in the Hennessy Gold Cup in November, a recognised Grand National trial, and then won the Grade 1 Lexus Chase at Leopardstown just after Christmas. He will, however, almost certainly take in the Cheltenham Gold Cup en route and that is sure to take something out of the 12-year-old though Paul Nicholls did, of course, train last year’s National winner Neptune Collonges.

Last year’s placed horses, Sunnyhillboy, Seabass and Cappa Bleu, are all due back at Aintree. Seabass (16/1 with Boylesports and Ladbrokes) is currently preferred by bookmakers while Teaforthree‘s odds will contract if he wins this weekend’s Grand National Trial at Haydock. Rebecca Curtis‘ gelding won the 4m National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last season and was second in the Welsh National at Chepstow this term. He is currently available at 20/1 in several places while Ballabriggs is set to carry the same weight as when successful in 2011 and is a general 33/1.

My early two against the field are Chicago Grey and Alfie Sherrin. The former was brought down in the early stages of last year’s Grand National through no fault of his own and gets in off a 9lb lower mark this year. Gordon Elliott’s grey is another former winner of the National Hunt Chase so his stamina isn’t in question and the yard have taken their time with him this season. Very effective on the good ground that usually prevails in early April, he is currently 40/1 with BetVictor, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power. Alfie Sherrin (a general 33/1) was doing his best work at the finish of the 3m5f Irish National last April and is another proven stayer. He’s had just two runs this winter to protect his handicap mark, one of over hurdles, and Jonjo O’Neill will be hoping he can gain compensation for Sunnyhillboy’s unlucky defeat last year.

The Betfair Hurdle, in all of its previous guises, has always been one of the most competitive races of the national hunt season and an excellent trial for the Cheltenham Festival. Make A Stand and Large Action both went on to win the Champion Hurdle after landing the race while last year’s winner, Zarkandar, finished a close-up fifth in the big one at Cheltenham the following month. It’s a handicap that has been dominated by five and six-year-olds in recent years and is very much a race for fancied horses (nine out of the last 10 winners have been among the first dozen in the betting). I make no apology about putting forward current ante-post favourite MY TENT OR YOURS this year.

He is one of six entries from the Nicky Henderson stable but looks a cut above the others and, most importantly, is still improving. The one worry would be that two of his three career defeats have come at Newbury but there is no getting away from the fact that his defeat of subsequent Challow Hurdle winner Taquin De Seuil at Ascot in November is top-class novice form and he hardly broke sweat when giving weight to couple of useful performers at Huntingdon last month. A classy sort in bumpers last spring (he was just over a length behind leading Cheltenham fancy The New One at Aintree in April), the handicapper has taken no chances with McCoy‘s mount allocating him a mark of 149 but My Tent Or Yours may be up the task and may yet prove value at the general 4/1.

Paul Nicholls, for whom Zarkandar was a first success in the race 12 months ago, saddles the in-form Dark Lover (a general 16/1) and the lightly-raced Pearl Swan (10/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill) but both look a shade close in the weights to the selection. Henderson’s next best behind My Tent Or Yours may well prove to be Lyvius, who won the Gerry Fielden Hurdle over course and distance in November. He can be backed at a general 33/1 but was behind Cause Of Causes (14/1 with Coral and Paddy Power) in The Ladbroke at Ascot before Christmas along with Petit Robin, Princeton Plains, Into Wain and First In The Queue. Cash And Go failed to finish. Swing Bowler has been the subject of a gamble but owner David Johnson doesn’t sound overly optimistic. The mare is 14/1 with Coral to extend her winning run but needs to improve again to confirm Musselburgh running with Ingleby Spirit (50/1 with Stan James).

A couple of dark horses do catch the eye, however, with Court Minstrel (14/1 general) particularly interesting despite racing from a couple of pounds out of the handicap. Third in a Grade 2 novice events at Cheltenham in November, he was fourth in a Grade 1 at Sandown last month and may have been underestimated. Cotton Mill (9/1 with Paddy Power, Skybet and William Hill) has won three of his five starts over timber and was still in front when crashing through the wing of the second-last in a Grade 1 at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. But all of  his form is over further – will he get outpaced over 2m on his return? I’ll stick with My Tent Or Yours.

Kempton on Boxing Day won’t seem the same without five-times William Hill King George VI Chase winner Kauto Star. Owner Clive Smith has decided to try his recently-retired 12-year-old in the dressage arena, angering former trainer Paul Nicholls who thought that one of the best steeplechasers of modern times had done enough to enjoy the rest of his days in fields adjoining his long-time home at Ditcheat stables. Time moves on, however, and a new champion will be crowned this year, though you could argue that Long Run has already shown himself as the worthy successor.

Nicky Henderson‘s seven-year-old won the King George in 2010, beating Riverside Theatre, and was second last year to Kauto Star. He reversed Cheltenham Gold Cup running in March with The Giant Bolster when second to Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on his reappearance and that is just about the best form in the race. There are one or two concerns, however, at Kempton. Firstly, Long Run’s owner Robert Waley-Cohen insists that his amateur rider son Sam always rides the horse. To be fair, Sam’s a very good amateur but he can’t possibly match the likes of Geraghty, McCoy, Walsh and Johnson when it comes to riding a finish and secondly, it’s entirely possible that Long Run may have already peaked. It’s certainly not unusual for French-bred chasers to burn out more quickly than their British and Irish counterparts, who are given more time to mature – though that certainly wasn’t the case with Kauto Star. I would hesitate to back Long Run at the general 2/1 simply as he just looks too short in the betting, though it wouldn’t be a great surprise if he won.

I don’t think we’ve yet to see the best of Grands Crus and the 9/1 with Ladbrokes should tempt a few punters. His defeat of Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth in the Feltham on last year’s corresponding card could hardly have worked out better and he’ll be a force to be reckoned with if David Pipe has managed to nurse him back to his best. Cue Card is clearly a top-class chaser but has the worst possible ground in which to attempt 3m for the first time and I wouldn’t be rushing to back him at the 11/2 with Boylesports, BetVictor and Stan James. Riverside Theatre likewise on his reappearance at similar odds but Kauto Star’s half-brother Kauto Stone was a ready winner of a Grade 1 at Down Royal last month and is a general 8/1 to follow in the footsteps of his sibling. But at inflated odds, our each-way advice has to be Captain Chris.

Available at 16/1 with bet365, BetVictor, Coral and William Hill, it’s true to say he has a bit to find if he’s to overturn last year’s running with Long Run and he also finished behind Riverside Theatre in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham in the spring. However, he was never right last season after winning two Grade 1 races in 2011. The eight-year-old was more like his old self when beating For Non Stop at Ascot last month and can beat the runner-up again here despite re-opposing on 6lb worse terms. Captain Chris has a fantastic record at Kempton and, just as crucially, loves the mud. There will be much weaker 16/1 chances running over the Christmas period at the track and elsewhere.

In the nine years that the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle has been staged at Ascot, one outstanding trend has emerged. This is not a race for second-season hurdlers.

Not one four-year-old has managed to win this Listed race at the Berkshire course and only eight of the 40 that have tried have managed a place – that doesn’t bode well for some of the fancied runners this year. Balder Success is currently a best 6/1 with BetVictor and Coral after finishing third to Zarkandar in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton before justifying short odds at Haydock.  But a mark of 147 doesn’t give him much room for manoeuvre while Ranjaan hasn’t seen a racecourse since January. That wouldn’t normally be a problem for a Paul Nicholls runner but the ground at Ascot this weekend is likely to be very testing and any chinks in his armour will be exposed, though his defeat of Third Intention when last seen was decent form. Ranjaan is 9/1 with BetVictor while Nicky Henderson‘s pair, Cash And Go and Lyvius, are also prominent in the betting.

The former is a general 8/1 and aiming to reverse Cheltenham running with Olofi (14/1 with Coral) and the latter generally a point bigger after making a winning reappearance in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury, though the form of that race looks a little suspect this year. Henderson also saddles the in-form Petit Robin (20/1 with most bookmakers) but he’d have to produce a career-best effort to get close in this under 11st12lb and First In The Queue‘s form doesn’t look good enough – he’s 25/1 in most places.

Tony McCoy had the choice of three for retainer J P McManus but has rejected Guinness Hurdle runner-up Princeton Plains (25/1 with Coral) and fellow Irish raider Thomas Edison (a general 20/1) in favour of It’s A Gimme. Raya Star won the Ladbroke 12 months ago and Jonjo O’Neill‘s five-year-old was second to Alan King’s charge over this same C&D on his reappearance. He proved a progressive sort last season, his only poor run coming when he’d probably gone over the top at Aintree in April. It’s A Gimme stays 2m4f so shouldn’t be found out through lack of stamina and, at the general 10/1, it’s well worth taking a chance that he’ll handle the forecast going though you’d certainly have to respect Princeton Plains.

Dan Breen is running well back over hurdles and has each-way claims again at the general 25/1 while Rigidity was second in the race last year at big odds and can be backed at 25/1 this time with Coral, Paddy Power and sportingbet but I expect the McManus colours to be in the winner’s enclosure, one way or another.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup last month is generally a good guide to this weekend’s Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup at Cheltenham. That was certainly the case last year when Quantitiveeasing (a general 16/1 this time around) went one better after finishing second in the Paddy Power. Walkon is bidding to follow suit 12 months on.

Alan King‘s grey found the classy Al Ferof three lengths too good on his reappearance and has been raised 5lb in the weights since. But at least the track and trip will hold no fears for the seven-year-old, who is still relatively unexposed over the larger obstacles, and he looks the one to beat at Stan James‘ 5/1.

Al Ferof, of course, is trained by Paul Nicholls and anything the Ditcheat maestro runs in valuable handicap chases here demands the utmost respect. He has two prominent in the betting in this. Unioniste (6/1 with sportingbet) is still a novice and 6lb out of the handicap proper but jumped well enough at the track when third to Dynaste and Harry Derham claims a 5lb allowance. Ruby Walsh rides Cristal Bonus (7/1 with Paddy Power) who won a Grade 3 at Down Royal six weeks ago, though he’s not gone well here in the past. Wishfull Thinking, on the other hand, positively thrives around here as he proved when winning by 18 lengths over 2m on the course last time. That wasn’t the greatest of contests but the top weight could do no more than win easily and he had finished second to the very smart For Non Stop on his comeback at Aintree, albeit beaten 23 lengths. The weight will probably anchor him, however, and he’s a general 14/1.

Nadiya De La Vega is 10/1 with sportingbet, BetVictor and William Hill and was third in the Paddy Power but he surely can’t reverse that form with Walkon. Michael Flips, Kingsmere and Quantitiveeasing were pulled up and also look held while Tartak and Divers (both a general 20/1) have been out of form for a while but Notus De La Tour goes well fresh and is 9/1 with Stan James I particularly like the look of Astracad.

Most of the six-year-old’s form over fences has been over shorter distances, prompting his ability to be effective in a strongly-run race over 2m5f to be called into question. But he has won over the trip over fences, at Perth last year, and also twice over hurdles and comes right into the reckoning taking his second to Al Ferof at Cheltenham last season as a literal guide. Sure to strip fitter for his recent comeback, at BetVictor’s 9/1 Nigel Twiston-Davies‘ six-year-old is the value bet in this.