Portsmouth

Saturday 24^th April

English Premier League

Bolton Wanderers v Portsmouth

I normally avoid matches where there is nothing up for grabs but I’ll break with tradition as an all but safe Bolton host already relegated Portsmouth at the Reebok.

Owen Coyle’s appointment in January has paid off for Bolton as the former Burnley manager has guided his new club to safety with a couple of games to spare. He’s not done much in the way of changing things from his predecessor but what he has done has significantly improved them. The loan signings of Jack Wilshere and Vladimir Weiss have been shrewd acquisitions and enhanced the quality in the squad. Their form, however, has not be excellent or consistent, it’s been patchy and they’ve basically done enough to survive but no more. If Hull or West Ham had put together any sort of run of form then Bolton would still be in danger of the drop. Last weeks 2-1 over Stoke was a big win and has given them a breathing space they’ve never really had throughout the season. What Coyle has done, however, has improved their home form and they are now a stronger team when playing at the Reebok. Before Man United and Aston Villa won in recent weeks, Bolton had went on a 6 match unbeaten home run. They’ll be looking to recapture that kind of form as soon as possible.

It’s been another turbulent week for Portsmouth and things just seem to be unravelling even more so for the South coast club. Reports suggest that their debt owed is upwards of £120m whilst they have been banned from playing in the Europa League next season despite qualifying through their exploits in this season’s FA Cup. It is a massive blow for the club as a whole. The players, fans and management will not get a chance to play in Europe whilst the money men won’t be able to recoup some much needed finances from the games. Avram Grant will again contend with a plethora of injuries when picking a side tomorrow afternoon. He will be unable to select the likes of Jamie O’Hara, Nadir Belhadj, Tal Ben Haim, Danny Webber or Herman Hreidarsson.  Four of those players would almost certainly have started if Grant went with his strongest XI so their absence cannot be underestimated.

Bolton are not mathematically save but realistically, they are. One more win, however, would see them over the line. Owen Coyle will know he has a massive re-building job on his hands over the summer and as such, the current crop of players will be playing for their futures at the club. They will be determined to prove to the manager that they are capable of playing for Bolton and the only way to do that is by winning games between now and the end of the season. Portsmouth have been a level behind most of the other clubs in the league this season even when they were full strength. Now they’re not and their eyes are obviously looking ahead to the FA Cup final, you just wonder what motivation they have going into tomorrow’s match. One argument could be that they’re playing for final places but I think it’s obvious that Grant knows who he wishes to play against Chelsea on May 16^th. With that in mind, I think Bolton’s determination and desire will be greater and even at the prohibitive odds, I’ll take them to win.

My selection: Bolton to beat Portsmouth at a best priced 4/7 available with Betfred

English League 2

Morecambe v Dagenham and Redbridge

If my first game previewed this week is rather meaningless, the second one is anything but. Both Morecambe and Dagenham have big hopes and chances of securing a play-off spot and class tomorrow afternoon.

Morecambe have put together a strong run of form at the right time, especially their home form. They have won 6 of their last 7 at home, drawing the other match. During that run of form they have defeated Rotherham and Port Vale, two sides who sit above them in the table, as well as gaining maximum points against sides fighting for their lives at the bottom of the table. Their home form for much of the season has been strong as they have only lost 3 games at Christie Park all season long. It’s been the catalyst for their chances of finishing in the play-off’s. They will have to do without their top scorer Phil Jevons for tomorrow’s crunch math. The striker is out with an injury so it looks as though veteran striker Paul Mullin will have to lead the line. Mullin has scored in 2 of his sides last 3 home games so although Jevons will be missed; they have another striker in form.

Dagenham and Redbridge are currently occupying one of the spots tomorrow’s opponents want. John Still’s side have been consistent for much of the season and like Morecambe, most of their points have came at home. The Daggers have only won 4 games on the road this season so they’ll know that they have to up their game if they wish to take anything from tomorrow’s match. Their 4 wins have came against sides below them in the table bar one, their most recent win against Aldershot. Despite their lack of away wins, they’ve only lost one match on the road in their last 8 games which is pretty decent going in such a competitive league. Still also has the benefit of being able to name the same side once again which is a great boost as continuity at this time of the season is precious.

I think there will be goals tomorrow as both sides tend to concede and also score plenty as well. With everything that is at stake and with both sides in good form heading into the match, it’s hard to call a winner. Instead I’ll have a play on the goals markets.

My selections: Over 2.5 goals at a best priced 5/6 with Bodog

                            Paul Mullin to score anytime at a best priced 2/1 available at Bet365

Spurs v Portsmouth FA Cup Semi Final Betting Preview: Can Portsmouth go one more step and finally touch upon a silver lining for their season? After being in dire trouble at the foot of the Premier League all season, and then being dragged through the courts with their financial situation, which have lead to winding up orders against the them, miraculously, Pompey are on the threshold of the FA Cup final. They will not start Sunday’s match as favourites though, especially after their opponents Spurs have beaten them twice in the Premier League already this season. It was just two years ago that Portsmouth won the FA Cup against Cardiff (managed by Harry Redknapp) and was enjoying happy times. But in such a short time, the club are in crisis and only have Championship football to look forward to next season.

If they can take with them the FA Cup, then it may soften the blow a little bit, especially as being seen as the weakest team left in the competition. Portsmouth’s progress to the cup final has been all about team work, and they have come through tough ties against lower opposition, in which the odds didn’t favour them at all. They then beat strong Premier League side Birmingham in their Quarter Final match, to set up the tie against Harry Redknapp’s Tottenham. Spurs do have their player injuries though, which could level the playing field a little bit. However, going in to the semi final at Wembley, the confidence and technical ability of the London side, would be expected to prevail on the day.

Spurs are firmly in the hunt for fourth spot in the Premier League, and while Portsmouth are struggling, they are more than capable of raising their game on Sunday. This is a one off showdown for Pompey, and they must be feeling desperate to give the fans something to cheer about in such a miserable season. But the success Spurs are having cannot be denied. They look favourites to clinch that last Champions League spot, and have played their way to the FA Cup semi final, enduring some tough tests of character along the way. They survived against Manchester United’s conquerors Leeds, and then needed another replay to get past a strong Fulham in the Quarter Finals, after being stripped to the bare bones of their squad.

Although they have been few and far between, Portsmouth have had their days this season. The FA Cup victories have been cheered as FA Cup final victories themselves, and they can look back and say that they beat Liverpool at Fratton Park. Pompey boss Avram Grant walked into a hot bed of football turmoil when he took over at the club, but the FA Cup has proven to be the perfect distraction from all of their problems. A day back at Wembley for the final against either Aston Villa or Chelsea, would be the perfect tonic for their suffering supporters. They may not have the skills that Tottenham have, but they will have heart as this is all they have to play for, and will put up a gallant performance.

Match Prices
Portsmouth to win: 11/1 at BetFred
Draw: 9/2 at BetFred
Tottenham to win: 4/13 Bwin

Asian Handicap Betting Advice: May be a bit closer than one would imagine looking at the Barclays Premier League table. Pompey have shown a little more spark and hunger in the cup matches, simply because there hasn’t been the pressure of losing points. Clearly the underdogs, but if one of the underdogs are going to have their day in the FA Cup Semi Finals, then it is more likely to be Portsmouth, which would be a fantastic achievement. Spurs have won four of their last five games, while Portsmouth have lost four of their last six.
Portsmouth +1.75 Asian Handicap: 8/11 at Stan James

Portsmouth v Chelsea Barclays Premier League Betting Preview. They may have blown their chance at the title, but it could be curtains for Chelsea if they do not take all three points at Portsmouth on Wednesday night. The Stamford Bridge team have been hit with another injury blow, with full back Branislav Ivanovic being ruled out for a month. This adds to Chelsea’s full back problem, with Jose Bosingwa and Ashley Cole already missing for pretty much the rest of the season. Chelsea’s Premier League title fate is now in their own hands after only picking up a draw at Blackburn on Saturday. That result has left them trailing Manchester United by four points, and Arsenal by two points. This is Chelsea’s game in hand over the two teams now above them in the league, and even a victory now will still leave them short of taking top spot.

The Blues have occupied the spot at the top of the Barclays Premier League for long periods this season, but they only have themselves to blame as they have failed to capitalise on slip ups by both Manchester United and Arsenal. Now they have to play catch up, and with the season’s big clash between Chelsea and Manchester United at Old Trafford just around the corner on April 3rd, Chelsea cannot afford any more mistakes. They will need to take three points from Alex Ferguson’s men without fail, but after slipping back in odds with the bookmakers, they now face an uphill struggle if the pre-season favourites are to take the crown. An away match at Portsmouth may not have been high on their priority of crucial games, but now it is.

Chelsea could have Petr Cech back for the match, who has been missing since their first leg defeat in the Champions League to Inter Milan. Could Portsmouth’s boss Avram Grant, who managed at Stamford Bridge a couple of years ago, now put the final nail in Chelsea’s Barclays Premier League title? Portsmouth, for all intents and purposes are relegated, and maybe all the stresses of playing for Premier League survival will have gone, and they can do their best to enjoy what is left of the season. They will be missing Aruna Dindane, as the club cannot afford to pay a hefty transfer sum if the on loan striker were to make another appearance. It has been a season of woes for the south coast club, with battles ensuing on both the pitch and in the courts as they have fought winding-up orders. Portsmouth did pick up a victory on Saturday in the league against relegation threatened Hull, with Kanu netting the winner.

Portsmouth v Chelsea Betting Stats

Last 5 Head to Head
Chelsea 2, Portsmouth 1
Portsmouth 0, Chelsea 1
Portsmouth 0, Chelsea 4
Chelsea 4, Portsmouth 0
Portsmouth 1, Chelsea 1

Last 5 Match Goals
Portsmouth: 8 For, 11 Against
Chelsea: 10 For, 8 Against

Last 10 Match Form
Portsmouth: W2, D2, L6
Chelsea: W6, D2, L2

Win Percentage:
Portsmouth have a 26.7 win percentage at home
Chelsea have a 46.7 win percentage away from home

Match Prices
Portsmouth to win: 11/1 at Bet365
Draw: 5/1 at SkyBet
Chelsea to win: 3/10 at Paddy Power

Asian Handicap Betting Advice: Chelsea do not look like a side full of confidence, and for some reason the goals have dried up. Three wins out of their last seven Premier League games simply is not the form of a title contender, and this is another tricky challenge for them. They appear to get themselves ahead, and then have not had the resilience to close out matches, and when the attack isn’t functioning fluently,  then this puts more pressure on an already weakened back line. Can Portsmouth overturn history, having failed to have beaten Chelsea in the Premier League? This probably is not quite an easy a task as it probably should be for Carlo Ancelotti’s Chelsea, as the pressure is really on. Covering Portsmouth to take defeat by no more than two goals should work out.
Portsmouth +1.75 Asian Handicap: 4/5 at Paddy Power

With only one FA Cup Quarter Final replay to come, the line up for the Semi Finals is pretty much set. The big tie is between Aston Villa and Chelsea, after their wins against Reading and Stoke respectively. Chelsea have been strong favourites to retain the FA Cup from the outset, and have comfortably made their way back to Wembley. The semi finals are held at Wembley on April 10th and 11th and look to be setting up some thrilling matches. Villa inflicted a defeat upon Chelsea in the league earlier in the season, and so Carlo Ancelotti will having something interesting to throw into his team talk in preparations. Martin O’Neill’s Aston Villa have been one of the successes of the season, reaching the Carling Cup final as well. For Aston Villa, the FA Cup represents a great chance to make amends for a loss there to Man Utd.

Villa’s win over Reading in the Quarter Finals, was the first time O’Neill had won a match in March since taking over at Villa. Their reward has been the toughest draw they could get in the semi final, but you generally have to beat the best at some point to win a competition. They will have nothing to fear though, having beaten them and Manchester United this season. Portsmouth, for whom the FA Cup has been the one bright spark of the season so far, as they face financial and Premier League survival. Pompey earned a proud and battling victory for their fans and boss Avram Grant over Birmingham on Saturday to book their place in the semi’s. Can they complete a fairy tale in the FA after so much doom and gloom? Imagine him lifting the cup in the final against his old club Chelsea!

Fulham and Tottenham played out a stalemate, as was expected. Spurs will probably be happier with that, with a whole host of injury problems at the moment. Taking the fixture back to White Hart Lane, where they have the opportunity to put out a stronger side, will make them favourites. But Fulham are no pushovers this season, as they are going well in Europe and safe and secure in the middle of the league. They have played some good football, and there should be a lot of life left in this tie yet. The replay is on March 24th.

FA Cup Outright
Chelsea – 11/10 at Totesport
Tottenham – 7/2 at Totesport
Aston Villa – 9/2 at Stan James
Fulham – 14/1 at Stan James
Portsmouth – 14/1 at Coral

FA Cup betting will be torn on this quarter final. The Portsmouth saga rumbles on this season, with the crisis club uncertain of its future still, and boss Avram Grant not promising to stay. But they are still living the dream in the FA Cup, and it could be their one outlet to salvage something from the season. Their fans certainly deserve something, after the hardship of all the financial woes, and being unable to prise themselves off the bottom of the Premier League all season. They have fought well in the FA Cup this season, in contrast to the league, where everything piece of bad luck seems to go against them. They came through a potentially tricky tie in the 5th round, a derby match away at fierce rivals, neighbours Southampton.

A late burst of goals saw Pompey run out 4-1 winners, to book their quarter final fixture at home against Birmingham. They have encountered Birmingham once this season, back in August, when Birmingham won a close match, 1-0. Portsmouth have already beaten Premier League opposition in the FA Cup this year, taking out Sunderland 2-1, and now boss Avram Grant will hope to get a little closer to that silver lining of a miserable season, an FA Cup final appearance. They do have home advantage, and all in all, it is not a bad draw for them. Their opponents, although stubborn and resolute in their defence, haven’t been setting the Premier League alight in goals scored.

Birmingham, under Alex McLeish are enjoying a season of comparative success. They were enjoying a long unbeaten run, until coming unstuck a little bit of late, and that will give Pompey heart. Birmingham’s game has been built around defence, and they, like Portsmouth, do struggle for goals. This could mean that there will be a tight game at Fratton Park on Sunday, with Birmingham looking to cap a fine season with at least a place in the Semi Final. For both of these teams, the FA Cup this season represents a lot to their fans. Whatever happens with Portsmouth in terms of administration, it is pretty much a dead cert that they will be relegated this year.

For Birmingham, it represents the opportunity to show that they are an up and coming club, giving them a further platform to build off for next season. Neither team are in great form at the moment, with just three wins between them in their last five matches. Still, it should make for an entertaining encounter, even if it is a tight, scrappy cup tie on the south coast. Birmingham have only scored 26 goals in the Premier League all season, but even that paltry amount tops Pompey, who have netted just 23 times. Therefore it is unlikely to be a goal fest down at Fratton Park, and every likelihood that this could head back to St Andrews for a replay.

BETTING STATS

Last 5 Head to Head
Birmingham 1, Portsmouth 0
Portsmouth 4, Birmingham 2
Birmingham 0, Portsmouth 2
Birmingham 5, Portsmouth 0
Portsmouth 1, Birmingham 1

Last 5 Match Goals
Portsmouth: 4 For, 10 Against
Birmingham: 5 For, 6 Against

Last 10 Form
Portsmouth: W2, D2, L6
Birmingham: W3, D4, L3

Win Percentage:
Portsmouth have a 23.1 win percentage at home
Birmingham have a 30.8 win percentage away from home

Portsmouth to win: 13/8 at SkyBet
Draw: 23/10 at Totesport
Birmingham to win: 2/1 at Victor Chandler

Asian Handicap Betting Advice: This is one of those games where trying to gain rewards from a draw would be worth investigating. If you want to be safe, then the first place to go for this, would be a Draw No Bet on whoever you think will sneak the tie, the equivalent of which, in Asian Handicap Betting is 0. Leaning towards Portsmouth though, simply because of the home fixture and nothing left to lose this season, and coverage with a half win, if they draw:
Portsmouth +0.25 Asian Handicap: 4/6 at Paddy Power

Saturday 27^th February

English Premier League

Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic

Birmingham have stuttered of late after a fantastic run of games unbeaten so they will be determined to get back on track and to winning ways when they host Wigan at St Andrews.

Alex McLeish has worked wonders with his Birmingham side after winning promotion to the top flight last season. He bought shrewdly with the acquisitions of Scott Dann, Roger Johnson, Christian Benitez and Barry Ferguson all coming in during the summer transfer window. All 4 have been exceptional for the most part and played a huge part in City’s 15 match unbeaten run earlier in the season. These 4, along with Joe Hart, Lee Bowyer and Cameron Jerome have built an excellent spine down the centre of the side which has made them resilient, hard to beat and disciplined. Their strength is shown with them having the joint best home defensive record in the league, losing just 8 goals in 13 matches thus far, which has resulted in them losing only 2 at St Andrews. Their record against sides below them in the table at home has been good, with wins over Wolves, West Ham, Blackburn, Sunderland and Portsmouth already. Bolton are the only team currently below Brum who have escaped with all 3 points – it took a late goal for this to occur.

Wigan are still in the thick of a relegation battle after going on a run of 6 games without a win in the league. Roberto Martinez’s side suffered a heavy defeat in their most recent game against Tottenham at home. The first goal in a 3-0 reverse was blatantly offside but it shouldn’t mask the fact that Wigan offered nothing in an attacking sense and looked decidedly weak, slow and cumbersome at the back. Unsurprisingly the have only scored 3 goals in their last 6 matches which doesn’t bode well for Saturday as they were playing against far weaker defences than the only they’ll be up against at St Andrews. Part of Martinez’s problems have been the lack of goals but the main problem is their porous defence. Wigan have the 2^nd worst away defence in the Premier League, the only above them in this table is Burnley who haven’t won away from home all season. Wigan’s away record isn’t too bad for a team fighting relegation as they have been victorious 3 times on the road already this season. Their wins have come against Wolves, Aston Villa and Burnley. The win over Villa was a freak result in the sense that it was the opening day of the season and they have never looked like emulating such a win again.

McLeish’s side are so good at frustrating the bigger teams so it will be interesting to see if they adapt this style of play and take the game to the visitors. If they do change and be more expansive, it could mean they leave space for the likes of Hugo Rodallega and Charles N’Zogbia. I think McLeish is too canny for that and he’ll stick to his side strengths of having two compact units of 4 and trying to hit the away side on the break using the pace of Benitez and Jerome. Both players should relish the prospect of playing against Gary Caldwell and Titus Bramble. Both are very awkward when up against pace and power in my opinion, especially Caldwell. The Scottish international is a good reader of the game and his distribution isn’t the worst but he’s not physical enough for a centre half which could prove to be Wigan’s downfall come the end of the season.

Birmingham have won both games against Wigan at St Andrews in recent years and they will have targeted this match as one where they can get back to winning ways. They’ve not lost a home game since that defeat to Bolton back in September and I can’t see a poor Wigan side altering that statistic come 5pm on Saturday. Birmingham will be pushing for their best finish in the league for a long time and I think they’ll get another 3 points in this fixture.

My selection: Birmingham to beat Wigan

Best odds available: Evens available with Betfred

English Premier League

Burnley v Portsmouth

It will be Premier League first on Saturday when Burnley take on the first top flight side in England to go into administration – Portsmouth.

Brian Laws took the reigns from Owen Coyle in January and has tasted victory once thus far – a 2-1 win over West Ham in their last home match. For all their failings on the road (and there have been many) their home form is still more than decent with 6 wins and 4 draws from the 12 games played at Turf Moor this season. The only team to beat them at home, other than Wigan, were Chelsea at the end of last month, and even that was a close run thing. They are most definitely difficult to beat on their own patch. They are also beginning to get key players back at the right stage of the season with Martin Paterson returning last week and Steven Caldwell also getting back to fitness.

Portsmouth have had a disastrous season already and it’s set to get worse tomorrow (Friday) when they officially enter administration and automatically incur a 9 point penalty deduction. They’re already 7 points adrift at the bottom so when the penalty is incurred they are as good as relegated. It’s a shame for the players, supporters and the likes of Avram Grant who have done nothing to deserve such problems, but for the likes of Peter Storrie and the multiple owners who have tried to make a quick buck and totally mis-managed the finances of the  club in the last few years, it’s nothing more than justice. You simply can’t break the rules so extremely and expect to get away with it in the long run. They’ll go down because they deserve to. On the field Pompey have 1 win and 10 defeats from 13 away games and have lost 7 of their last 8 away league games.

Laws and Burnley are running out of games between now and the end of the season and they know that Saturday’s game is a must win if they are to survive their maiden season in the Premier League. Home games will be vital in their bid, especially home games against sides in and around their own position in the league. Pompey are the only side below them in the league at this point but it’s not all bad, only 4 points separate 7 positions and a win on Saturday could arguably see the Claret’s move to 14^th providing other results go their way,

You expect nothing else other than Portsmouth to give 100% on Saturday as they have done in every match this season, but the hype, attention and scandal surrounding the club at this moment is bound to have an affect. They have struggled on the road for the whole season and as I have already proven, Turf Moor isn’t the easiest of hunting grounds.

Burnley need the points more and I think their desire will prove to be too much for a club in crisis.

My selection: Burnley to beat Portsmouth

Best odds available: 6/5 available once again with Betfred

Sunday 28^th February

Scottish Premier League

Rangers v Celtic

It’s derby weekend once again in Glasgow when Celtic travel across the city to take on their bitter city rivals at Ibrox.

Rangers go into the match with a 7 point lead, a game in hand an 20 goals better off in terms of goal difference. The league really is theirs to throwaway and it will be a surprise if they don’t make it back to back league championships in May. Their team is not the greatest to watch, they don’t play free flowing football but their style of play is effective. They have a strong goalkeeper and defence, a hard working midfield and a good partnership upfront with Kenny Miller and Kris Boyd. They are undefeated at home this season and have already defeated Celtic in the league earlier this season – a 2-1 win back in October. Manager Walter Smith is likely to have a fully fit squad to choose from with Allan McGregor likely to take his place in goals despite being assaulted last Saturday in Glasgow. Smith will more than likely line up 4-4-2 and try to overpower Celtic using Lee McCulloch and Kevin Thompson as his midfield partnership.

Celtic are massive underdogs in the league but anything can happen in this fixture as we all know. They have played Rangers off the park twice already but only have a single point to show for their efforts. The last match between these two was the most one sided game I’ve watched in a long time – if it a was a boxing match it would have been stopped at half time. With a mix of shocking refereeing and some horrible finishing from Celtic, the match ended in a 1-1 draw. Celtic have failed to record back to back wins in the league since the beginning of December which is a damning statistic only made worse hen you consider it’s against teams such as Aberdeen, Kilmarnock and Falkirk. Tony Mowbray knows his side are in last chance saloon on Sunday and it’s up to them whether they take it or not.

Marc Antoine Fortune has been a big player for Celtic of late and his performance in the last game against Rangers was excellent. He dominated both of their centre halves and they couldn’t cope with his pace and power. His partner that day was Giorgios Samaras who missed a glut of glorious chances which were created because Fortune pulled the defence all over the place. On Sunday his partner will be Robbie Keane so it’s a massive difference in terms of quality, ability and bottle. Keane has done it all throughout his career and he will be desperate to score for his beloved Celt’s at Ibrox, providing of cours it is in a Celtic win.

Celtic are due a victory over Rangers but I normally refrain from betting on the outcome of these games because they are so hard to predict. I think the 9/4 on offer for an away win is too big as I strongly believe that Celtic have far more quality in their ranks, so I wouldn’t put anyone off backing them. The bet I will advise is for Keane to score at anytime. Fortune will do a lot of the ‘ugly work’ for his strike partner and Keane’s movement and quick thinking should seem him have at least a couple of good chances. He’s also scored in his last two games for Celtic so the signs are there that he is hitting top form as he get’s his sharpness.

My selection: Robbie Keane to score at anytime

Best odds available: 21/10 available with PaddyPower

KTF

This may not be the most enticing looking fixture on the weekend’s Premier League card, but it has a lot of significance, and worth taking a look at. Portsmouth’s problems have been well documented as they fumble from one financial crisis to the next. The most recent development is that they have asked for permission to sell players outside of the transfer window, in order to desperately raise some funds so that they try and avoid a winding up order which would place them into administration. The cost of that happening would mean they would lose 9 points and for a team seven points adrift at the foot of the Premier League, that would spell certain relegation from the top flight.

Unfortunately, the Premier League is unlikely to endorse Pompey’s wish of being able to sell players to get some cash to put towards their debts. This is because some members feel that it would be an unfair advantage to other teams who are battling relegation. The first impression is that the team would be weaker if they sold their stars, but what other managers are about is that a player sold by Portsmouth could pop up and score a crucial goal and send the other team down. The players sold by Portsmouth under their plan, would probably only be eligible to play in the Premier League. While there is a lot of sympathy around for Portsmouth’s plight, their salvation won’t come at the expense of other clubs putting themselves at risk.

Most notably, Burnley’s boss Brian Laws summed everything up by saying that Portsmouth got themselves into the mess, and they should get themselves out. Burnley are second from bottom in the Premier League and are fighting for their own survival. But, back to football, and while Portsmouth enjoyed a happy day in the FA Cup against rivals Southampton, their league form is dreadful. They have won just four games all season, and have amassed only 16 points. Not only do they not have the quality to play their way out of trouble, boss Avram Grant already needs to perform some kind of miracle already to get them safe, but if they are taken down to just 7 points, it would be season over for them. Grant was not happy at the prospect of seeing more players being sold.

Portsmouth picked up a point against rapidly slumping Sunderland in their last Premier League outing, and now they take on Stoke, with no idea really what is coming next. Stoke beat Portsmouth 1-0 in the league at the end of November, but Portsmouth thumped them 4-0 in the Carling Cup in October. Sadly Portsmouth’s lack of goal production is there for all to see, and Stoke, who are enjoying a steady season, will be eagerly eyeing up three points. Stoke have had their critics under boss Tony Pulis, not that he would bat an eyelid at them. They recently gained back to back draws against Manchester City, once in the league and then in the FA Cup, with the replay still to come.

Stoke have drawn four of their last six games, but are enjoying a run of going unbeaten, including a 1-1 draw against Liverpool. Stoke critics have lambasted their direct and physical approach to the game, and there isn’t much flair about the side. Still, they’ll be happy enough when they are in the Premier League next season, something the Pompey fans probably won’t be able to enjoy. Stoke have a few injury worries, most notably Matthew Etherington and Danny Higginbottom, while Portsmouth’s injury list accounts for about half of their team. Stoke’s unbeaten 2010 looks set to continue on Saturday, and Portsmouth plight looks set to deepen.

BETTING STATS

Last 3 Head to Head League
Stoke 1, Portsmouth 0
Stoke 2, Portsmouth 2
Portsmouth 2, Stoke 1

Last 5 Match Goals
Portsmouth: 2 For, 10 Against
Stoke: 6 For, 3 Against

Last 10 Form
Portsmouth: W1, D3, L6
Stoke: W2, D5, L3

Win Percentage
Portsmouth have a 25.0 win percentage at home
Stoke have an 8.3 win percentage away from home

Match Prices:
Portsmouth to win: 7/5 at Boylesports
Draw: 12/5 at SkyBet
Stoke to win: 9/4 at Coral

Asian Handicap Betting Advice: Don’t think that there is going to be too much at it. If it was an away match for Portsmouth, you could see them crumbling, but the home fans may give a little boost now their backs are against the wire. They probably aren’t going to go out and score a hatful, but whichever way you lean, whether it is Stoke by a small margin in the plus, or Pompey in a slight minus, it should even out to a little profit, but be backed up in the case of a likely draw.
Stoke + 0.25 Asian Handicap: 10/11 at Paddy Power

While it’s clear that In-Play betting is becoming increasingly popular with customers, there are still many of us that like to place antepost bets either before or during the start of the football season. While a bet on a live game is often settled within minutes, a long-term bet means that you can enjoy your wager over the course of the season, before eventually it’s settled as a winner or loser by May.

There are still several issues to be decided in the Premier League, with the winner likely to come from a select group of two teams. Despite talk of Liverpool and Manchester City mounting a challenge this term, they are 100/1 (Sporting Bet) and 33/1 (Paddy Power) respectively to finish top of the pile. In addition, many people have started to write off Arsenal (for the second time this season) after the Gunners lost 3-1 at home to Manchester United on Sunday. Arsene Wenger’s team are now out to 10/1 with Sky Bet to win their first title since 2004, although it appears that they might not have enough quality.

Which leaves us with Chelsea and Manchester United. The Blues have been trading at odds-on for most of the season and the Blues are still available at a best price 5/6 (bet365), despite drawing with Hull on Tuesday. Carlo Ancelotti’s team still have to visit Old Trafford this season, something which might convince many that the Red Devils are clearly the value bet at 6/4 (Ladbrokes). With United having an easy match against Portsmouth on Saturday and Chelsea entertaining Arsenal on Sunday, it could be all change at the top.

While only three teams can possibly win the Premier League, it’s fair to say that eleven sides could be relegated this term. Some shrewd punters were backing Portsmouth at fancy odds of 5/1 before the season started, although their financial state and bad opening results saw Pompey quickly start trading at odds-on. It seems implausible that they are going to get out of the bottom three by the end of the season, although Coral and Victor Chandler are still prepared to offer odds of 1/5.

If Avram Grant’s team are doomed, then every other team will believe that they can escape the drop. Indeed, Hull City didn’t look like a team destined for the drop when drawing with Chelsea on Tuesday and Coral have eased the Tigers to 8/11 on their relegation market. Phil Brown’s team never give up and actually have form at the KC Stadium which might allow them to survive. Burnley are the same price (8/11 bet365) to return to the Championship next term, with the Clarets sinking like a stone in previous months. You could have backed them at around 4/1 when they had a bright opening to the campaign, although they need some inspiration from somewhere.

Wolves (11/8 Ladbrokes), Bolton (7/2 William Hill), Wigan (5/1 Ladbrokes) and West Ham (6/1 Stan James) are definitely too close to the bottom of the league for comfort, with the Hammers a surprisingly big price purely because they have new owners who have drafted in Benni McCarthy and Mido. It promises to be a scrap to the death at the wrong end of the Premier League table.

While it’s only possible for three sides to go down this term, it’s difficult to predict the trio that will be playing in the Championship next season. As always, there are far more teams scrapping at the foot of the Premier League than contesting matters at the top of the table, with over half the division only two defeats away from trouble.

Portsmouth are clearly in pole position to fall through the top flight trapdoor and the bookmakers were cutting the odds on the Hampshire club before a ball had been kicked. Although the club are in the hands of new owners and cashflow was originally attributed to the player wages not being paid on time, it now appears as though money’s too tight to mention and Pompey are no bigger than 4/11 (Coral) to be relegated. Avram Grant has his hands tied as far as signing new players is concerned and the current squad don’t seem good enough.

However, it’s tougher to choose the two that might join them in England’s second division next term. Hull City have been odds-on for the drop since the season began and the Tigers currently trade at 4/6 (bet365) despite their 0-0 draw at Tottenham on Saturday. This result came about through an inspired goalkeeping display from Boaz Myhill and the keeper can’t be expected heroics like this every match! The other team now priced at odds-on is Burnley (5/6 Paddy Power), despite an impressive performance at Old Trafford at the weekend. Brian Laws seemed to inspire his new side and they could have been ahead against the champions had they taken their chances.

Indeed, the Clarets’ price has shortened in the past fortnight, with Ladbrokes offering a stand-out 11/10 on them being relegated a fortnight ago. This is mainly to do with the exit of Owen Coyle to Bolton, although the Scot’s managerial debut saw the Trotters lose 2-0 to Arsenal. They face the same opponents at the Emirates on Wednesday and it’s something of a surprise to see 3/1 available at bet365 that Wanderers go down. After all, they occupy nineteenth place for a reason and Coyle might not have money to spend in January.

Not these are the only four teams in danger of the drop! Wolverhampton Wanderers are looking very shaky and Victor Chandler’s 11/8 looks like an interesting price about Mick McCarthy’s team. After all, they were pretty shabby when losing 2-0 at home to Wigan and they don’t seem to have the requisite quality to do anything than hover above the drop zone. Perhaps Sky Bet are closer to the mark with their 4/5 quote about a team who have scored just seventeen goals in twenty-one games.

It’s a battle that looks set to go down to the wire and we might expect West Ham to be one of the teams scrapping for survival. The Hammers are due to be acquired by new owners during January, although it doesn’t appear as though this will happen in time to enable Gianfranco Zola to ease the severe injury crisis that affects the club. Stan James offer an attractive 4/1 about the London side dropping down, although they did deliver a gutsy display to draw 0-0 at Villa Park.

Wigan (13/2 bet365), Blackburn (11/1 Victor Chandler), Stoke City (14/1 Ladbrokes) and even Sunderland (25/1 Coral) aren’t totally safe yet, especially with the Black Cats now just four points off the drop zone after their 7-2 drubbing at Chelsea.

RELEGATION
Portsmouth 4/11 (Coral)
Hull City 4/6 (bet365)
Burnley 5/6 (Paddy Power)
Wolves 11/8 (Victor Chandler)
Bolton 3/1 (bet365)
West Ham 4/1 (Stan James)
Wigan 13/2 (bet365)
Blackburn 11/1 (Victor Chandler)
Stoke City 14/1 (Ladbrokes)
Sunderland 25/1 (Coral)

Apologies for not posting a preview last week and a Happy New Year to one and all – let’s hope it’s a profitable one!

Saturday 9^th January

English Premier League

Fulham v Portsmouth

Crisis club Portsmouth travel to Craven Cottage to take on a Fulham side who’s only home defeats this season have came against Chelsea and Arsenal.

Roy Hodgson must be more than satisfied with his side’s first half to the season as the Cottagers occupy 9^th place in the table. Their league position, excellent results and good football comes as no surprise to me when you consider the quality of player Hodgson has at his disposable. The likes of Andy Johnson, Brede Hangeland, Danny Murphy and Clint Dempsey are all excellent players with superb individual talent. Hodgson has built his team around these players in the last 18 months and has fitted others such as Bobby Zamora, John Pantsil and Damien Duff around the quartet, thus making a formidable proposition for most teams. Fulham’s quality was never more evident than when dismantling the current Champions just before Christmas. Their 3-0 demolition of Manchester United at home was arguably their best result in recent times, and especially since their return to the EPL. Their home record is particularly impressive in the main with 6 wins and 2 draws from 10 matches. Their losses to two of the top 3 emphasises the difficulty in obtaining a positive result from the Cottage.

If Fulham are a smaller club on the up, Portsmouth are most definitely a smaller club on the way down. This week has been devastatingly bad for the southern club. Players not being paid their wages, a transfer embargo being enforced by the league and money they don’t even have being promised to other clubs. On top of all this, they have lost a handful of key players to the African Nations as well which leaves them with a squad so lightweight they will struggle to fill the bench with senior professionals. It’s a stark contrast to the glory days of Harry Redknapp, Jermaine Defoe, Peter Crouch et al. Ironically enough, when they were bringing the FA Cup and European football to Fratton Park, they were also bleeding it dry as well. Getting back to matters on the field and again it doesn’t make pleasant reading. Despite a good win over Liverpool last month, the club have went 3 games without a win, losing both their league games. Their away record is also extremely poor with just 1 win from 10 games – they have lost 7. Unsurprisingly they are the lowest scorers away from home as well, notching just 5 on the road.

Both sides will be depleted for Saturday’s match which makes betting on the game a little more dangerous than usual. The home side will be missing three key players in the shape of Hangeland, Pantsil and Zamora. All 3 have had good seasons so there’s no two ways about it, Fulham will miss their influence on the match. As for Pompey, those available is anyone’s guess. It’s unknown at this stage whether the loan players will be available for Saturday’s match but it is known who is definitely going to be absent. Hassan Yebda, Nadir Belhadj, Kanu and Aruna are all on International duty whilst David James is still injured.

Hodgson will be demanding a big performance from his side after a shambolic first half display on Wednesday night. Their 2^nd half performance was much more like the Fulham under the experienced manager. They have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with Portsmouth and with morale sure to be at an all time low for the away side, I’m taking them to comfortably make it 4 wins from their last 5 in this fixture.

My selections: Fulham to beat Portsmouth – available at 7/10 with extrabet

                            Fulham (-1) to beat Portsmouth – available at 7/4 with Coral

*THE ABOVE MATCH HAS NOW BEEN POSTPONED*

English Premier League

Wigan v Aston Villa

As things stand, this will be one of the few outdoor sporting events to take place in Britain over the weekend as Wigan confirmed they expect their match against Villa will be on tomorrow.

Wigan find themselves deep in trouble at the foot of the table as they currently sit in 16^th position – just a point of the relegation zone. It’s Roberto Martinez’s first season managing at this level so it’s no real surprise that he does suffer from naivety at times. His first XI is decent and more than capable of staying in the league this season, however tactics, team selections and lack of depth in the squad could yet lead them to the Championship. Wigan currently have the worst defensive record in the Premier League, conceding a staggering 44 goals in 19 matches. They have shipped 9 to Tottenham, 5 to Manchester United, 4 to Portsmouth and 4 to Arsenal. Granted, all 4 of these games came away from home. Their home record is not great either however, they are far too inconsistent at the DW Stadium. 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats means you don’t know what to expect from Wigan. They have defeated Chelsea and drawn with Man City at home but at the same time, they’ve lost to Wolves and drawn with the likes of Blackburn. Martinez will need to address these inconsistencies in the 2^nd half of the season to stand any chance of staying up.

Martin O’Neill’s Villa responded well in the FA  Cup last week after a couple of successive defeats to Arsenal and Liverpool in the league. The midlands club are still bang in the shout for a top 4 finish as they are only 2 points off 4^th placed Spurs. There is plenty of rumours surrounding the club at present in the midst of the January transfer window so it will be interesting to see how O’Neill views his squad. Emile Heskey is at the centre of most and in my opinion; he’s too similar to John Carew. Villa need something a little bit different up top with Gabby Agbonlahor and his pace. A Robbie Keane type player would almost certainly improve their chances of Champions League football next season. As it stands, Villa know they will need to win these kind of games if they are to push on in the 2^nd half of the season. They fell away badly after Christmas last year so O’Neill will be under no illusions as to how important a win tomorrow will be. They have won 4 away from home already this season, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their defeat to Arsenal was their first away reverse in 4 so they certainly have the form to win tomorrow. They have won at the Stadium of Light, St Andrews, Anfield and Old Trafford so tomorrow’s game should not phase them.  

Wigan have no new injuries to report and welcome Serbian goalkeeper Vladimir Stojkovic to the fold as their reserve keeper Richard Kingson is on African Cup of Nations duty.  Villa should be able to call on both James Milner and Luke Young who had been carrying knocks. Milner especially will be a big boost as the former Newcastle and Leeds man has been in excellent form of late. Alongside Stan Petrov in the middle of the park, he’s scored goals, made goals and put in a massive shift for the team.

Aston Villa have won on their last 2 visits to the DW Stadium. They are in desperate need of a victory after a run of two defeats so I fully expect them to be wound up. Wigan are in as much of a need but for very different reasons. They are struggling at the bottom but if they are being honest, anything they get from this sort of fixture is a bonus. Their season will be affected by games against teams in and around them at the foot of the table. I think there will be goals in this match but I fully expect the away side to emerge victorious.

My selections: Aston Villa to beat Wigan – best odds available: 7/5 at William Hill

                            Over 2.5 goals – best odds available: 21/20 at Totesport

Good Luck and Happy punting!