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Saturday 7th November

English Championship

Blackpool v Scunthorpe

Both Blackpool and Scunthorpe were expected to struggle at the wrong end of the table by many at the start of the season. Whilst it looks like being the case for the away side, it has been the polar opposite thus far for Ian Holloway’s tangerines.

Blackpool currently sit in 7th position in the Championship, level on points with 6th placed QPR and just 6 points off top. Their lofty position is mainly due to their excellent record at Bloomfield Road. Holloway has turned their home ground into something of a fortress this season with 5 wins from their 7 games, drawing the other two. Their unbeaten record is made to look even more impressive when you take into account some of the names that have tried and failed to take all 3 points home with them. Newcastle and Sheffield United were brushed aside whilst Cardiff did better than most and left with a point. Their defensive record at home has been nothing short of incredible. They have conceded just two goals this season – only Newcastle and Cardiff have managed to breach the home rearguard.

Scunthorpe came straight back up last season after suffering relegation in 2008. They were considered to be relegation candidates straight from the beginning and although they currently sit 5 points off of 22nd, their poor form on the road looks likely to drag them down into a dogfight later in the season. Like Blackpool, they have performed better at home with 13 of their 17 points coming at Glanford Park. Nigel Adkins’ side have lost their last their last 3 away matches in the league, with defeats coming against Nottingham Forest, Plymouth and most recently Peterborough. With the exception of Forest, these are defeats against sides below them in the table which makes them all them more worrying.

Blackpool have strengthened considerably during the close season with a host of new arrivals already impressing. They managed to make last year’s loan signing of Charlie Adam from Rangers permanent whilst they also brought in Jason Euell, Hameur Bouazza and Jay Emmanuel –Thomas who has impressed since joining on loan from Arsenal. These players, along with David Vaughn, make up a potent, and vibrant, midfield and attack so it’s no surprise the problems they have caused other teams, especially at home. All 5 should be fit, ready and free of suspension to take their place tomorrow afternoon. As for Scunthorpe, they will be without their talismanic striker Gary Hooper who will miss the match through illness, this is a massive blow to United as he is their joint top scorer and also is vital to the way Adkins sets his side up.

A player I’ve not mentioned yet is Blackpool’s Ben Burgess. The Irish striker may not be everyone’s cup of tea and can be frustrating when he’s not on his game. However, I think he’s been very impressive for ‘Pool this term and his link up play allows the like of Adam and Bouazza to get into the box to create and score goals. Whoever he’s partnered with tomorrow, whether it be Euell, Brett Ormerod or on his own, he’ll be a constant pain for Scunny’s defence, especially their massive centre half Rob Jones. This will be a key battle in tomorrow’s match.

Blackpool may well be punching above their weight this season, whether they do so for the entire 46 games remains to be seen. I think their midfield and attacking options will be far too much for Scunthorpe who have already proven to be weak and feeble on the road.

My selection: Blackpool to beat Scunthorpe

Best odds available: 3/4 available with Paddypower

 

English Premier League

Manchester City v Burnley

Saturday see’s a North West derby between two sides who may be close together geographically, but are miles apart in terms of the current footballing climate in England.

Since Man City were taken over by the Abu Dhabi group in 2008, they have spent an obscene amount of money on a plethora of new players. This season has seen the purchase of players such as Emmanuel Adebayor, Carlos Tevez, Kolo Toure and Gareth Barry. All four came from teams who finished higher than City last season so it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to work out why they jumped ship. Hideous financial weight aside, Mark Hughes’ side have had a very decent start to the season, currently occupying 4th spot and having a game in hand over the top two. They have stuttered of late with 4 draws from their last 4 matches. 3 of these matches were away from home and came against sides who have decent enough home records. Their home form this season has been good with 10 points from a possible 12.

I’ve tipped Burnley before on this blog but it was when they were defending their excellent home record, away from Turf Moor is another matter altogether. They have yet to pick up a single point on their travels losing all 5 matches thus far. They have conceded a massive 17 (joint 2nd worst in the league) with only a couple of goals managed at the other end – both game against Blackburn incidentally which means they haven’t scored in the other 4. Owen Coyle should be praised for his sides home form but he may also be criticised for employing the same tactics away as he does at home. Their expansive football leaves them wide open for the better sides in the league to cut them open at will when they go visiting.

City will have Adebayor and Toure back fit so Hughes will have a load of options to fill his midfield and attack. I imagine the former Arsenal hitman will return to the starting line-up as they looked rather toothless without him last week. He may be partnered by Craig Bellamy and Tevez in attack with Stephen Ireland pushing for a recall in midfield. Coyle is expected to name the same side that defeated Hull last Saturday.

If Hughes does go with Ireland in midfield it will mean there will be a direct link between the other midfielders and the 3 upfront. This has been missing from City’s play in recent weeks as Ireland has found himself on the bench more often than not. Hughes may look at Burnley’s porous defence and style of play and see it as an ideal opportunity to restore the controversial Irish man to the side.

You won’t get much of a return backing City at 1/3 or so but there are several good value bets elsewhere in this match up. Burnley have lost 4 of their 5 away matches by at least two goals so my main bet in this game is Manchester City -1.

Another bet which caught my eye was for the home side to win both halves tomorrow. After a lacklustre couple of games recently, they’ll be sure to come out firing infront of their own supporters. In order for this bet to be successful they need to beat Burnley in both halves of the match (do not get this bet confused with the half time/full time wager.

My selections: Manchester City (-1) to beat Burnley – available at EVENS with several bookmakers including 888Sport

Manchester City to win both halves tomorrow – available at 5/2 with Skybet

 

English Premier League

Wolves v Arsenal

Arsenal travel to Wolves on Saturday evening looking to continue their strong start to the season by gaining all 3 points in what is sure to be an interesting and entertaining match.

Wolves foiled my Aston Villa tip a couple of weeks ago and have been stubborn opposition of late with 3 draws in as many matches. Their come from behind draws against Stoke and Villa have been particularly impressive considering the strength of both those sides.

Arsenal have went about their business pretty quietly on the whole considering they have lost to both halves of Manchester already. Despite those defeats they are 3rd, 5 points behind leaders Chelsea with a game in hand. They have been particularly strong at home with 5 wins from 5 but the aforementioned losses have been the only times they have left with nothing this season. They have already defeated Everton and Fulham away which are both hard at the best of times whilst they were 2-0 up and coasting at Upton Park last month before a couple of dodgy decisions and before you know it it’s 2-2.

Despite Mick McCarthy’s home side being resilient of late, they have yet to face a team of Arsenal’s class and quality. A 4-1 mauling of AZ in the Champions League midweek is evidence that Arsene Wenger’s side are in top form.

I fully expect Arsenal to collect all 3 points tomorrow but again, you won’t get rich backing them at 2/5. So in order to make the bet a little more interesting I’m taking Robin Van Persie to score at anytime and Arsenal to win. Van Persie has been Arsenal’s go to guy this season and has scored in their last 3 away matches in the league, he has 7 in total this season.

My selection: Arsenal to beat Wolves and Robin Van Persie to score at anytime

Best odds available: 6/4 with several bookmakers including Boylesports

Good luck and happy punting.


November 6th, 2009 / callum - Category: Football Betting

 

Saturday 10th October

English League 1

Carlisle v Norwich City

Norwich will be looking to make it 4 straight wins in all competitions when they travel north to take on a Carlisle side who haven’t picked up a league victory since the 5th of September.

Paul Lambert has had a positive impact since replacing Bryan Gunn as Norwich manager back in August. Incidentally, it was Lambert’s former side, Colchester, who caused Gunn’s sacking when his Canaries side lost 7-1 to them on the opening day of the season. Since Lambert’s arrival, City have climbed the table and currently find themselves in 7th position, 1 place and 2 points outside of the play-off picture. They have won their last two matches in the league, both at home, by a four goal margin each time. Their last two away matches have been against strong home sides in the shape of Gillingham and MK Dons. The former resulted in a stalemate in a match Norwich may feel they should have taken all 3 points whilst they will also feel aggrieved at not taking something from MK Dons in a match they dominated for large spells.

Carlisle United have found life difficult in the league this year managing only two victories from their 11 matches this far. Their home form, normally quite strong, has let them down with only one win from 5 games whilst losing 3 of those. They have lost to pretty weak sides all in all, Brentford, Exeter and Brighton are not great by any stretch of the imagination and are teams who are likely to be at the same end of the league as Carlisle come the end of the season. Their only success was against the hapless Tranmere who have been brushed aside by most teams already this season whilst they picked up a credible draw with Southampton.

Norwich will be hoping their top scorer and captain Grant Holt is fit enough to start tomorrow as he is instrumental in Lambert’s style of play. The former Celtic and Dortmund midfielder likes his teams to get the ball wide and whip crosses into the box for the target man so Holt’s fitness is key to this game. If, as expected, he does play, I think Carlisle’s defence is in for a very difficult 90 minutes. A big blow to Norwich will be the absence of Stephen Hughes who is on international duty with Scotland. Darrel Russell may well come in to replace Hughes.

Carlisle will be desperate to pick up their first 3 points in more than a month tomorrow and may take some comfort from the fact that their opponents have only notched one victory on the road in the league this term. That statistic, however, is deceptive as Lambert wasn’t in place for one of their two away defeats and his side have shown a big improvement on their travels. With Grant Holt in excellent form I just think Norwich’s attacking flair will be too much and see them home rather comfortably in the end.

My selection: Norwich City to beat Carlisle United

Best odds available: 11/8 available with several bookmakers including bet365

English League 2

Bradford City v Crewe Alexandra

A local derby of sorts with Yorkshire meeting Lancashire at Valley Parade as Dario Gradi takes his troops to face Stuart McCall’s Bradford.

Bradford City had a poor start to the league campaign losing 5-0 to Notts County before dropping a further 5 points in their next two matches. It wasn’t until an extraordinary match at Cheltenham that they picked up their first 3 points of the season winning 5-4. Since then, the Bantams have not looked back and have remained unbeaten since. In this run they have won 4 and drawn 4 which has seen them climb the table to 9th position, 3 points off 7th place. Their home form looks patchy when you look at their season stats but when you focus on their last 3 home games it looks a lot more positive with 2 wins and a draw with only one goal conceded. They may not have been playing the strongest away sides but they have been despatched with considerable ease.

Crewe have found things a little tough going since their relegation to England’s 4th flight of league football. They started the season reasonably well with 4 league victories from their opening half dozen matches. They have, however, lost their last 5 matches in the league which meant that their former manager lost his job as a consequence. Dario Gradi has since taken over again but even his return could not halt the clubs fortunes as Crewe lost out by the odd goal in five last week at home to Rotherham.

Bradford’s upsurge in form cannot be put down to any one great player, it’s been a genuine team effort. Players like Rehman, Williams and O’Brien have provided a solid platform at the back for the likes of Osborne, Evans and Flynn to go forward with a bit of intent at the other end of the park.

Bradford have won 4 of the last 5 rounds of this fixture but did lose the last time these sides met at Valley Parade. Crewe will come out to attack as they only know how to play one way so I expect goals tomorrow. So as well as advising a bet on Bradford to continue their good form and take all 3 points I think the more than two goals bet is also a very decent shout.

My selections: Bradford to beat Crewe

Best odds available: 10/11 with several bookmakers including Coral

Other selections: More than two goals in the same game

Best odds available: 4/5 with PaddyPower.

 


October 9th, 2009 / callum - Category: Football Betting

 

 

Saturday 9th May

Scottish Premier League

Kilmarnock v Falkirk

Just concentrating on one game again this week and that game takes place at Rugby Park where Kilmarnock entertain a Falkirk side in a match that should go some way to determining both sides end of season fate.

Kilmarnock come into this match just 3 points ahead of bottom club Falkirk having lost to Hamilton last weekend whilst today’s visitors collected maximum points at home to Motherwell, despite going down to ten men late on. Killie are in turmoil off the park; the club are around £15m in debt and their chairman has previously stated that if they were to be relegated, there is a good chance that they may not even survive. There have also been rumours this week that even if the club do survive, any player that they can get a fee for will be sold on. This is clearly not good for morale and last week’s showing at Hamilton illustrates that. It was a very poor performance and the score flattered the Ayrshire club.

Falkirk have had a very poor season considering they finished in 7th position the previous year and the quality of player they signed in the summer. Falkirk’s quality of squad is not in question; the Bairns have made it through to the Scottish Cup final which proves they are a good side. The pressure of the league has obviously gotten to the team and it has affected performances and results. John Hughes side know that they cannot lose this match today if they are to play in the SPL next year. Kilmarnock, along with St Mirren, are their nearest rivals which leaves no margin of error today.

There may be mitigating circumstances for such a poor performance by Kilmarnock last week, with players such as Kevin Kyle, Manuel Pascali and David Fernandez all missing. They are big players for them and will add some much needed quality tomorrow. That being said, there was no heart, commitment or desire last Saturday, and a lot will need to change, quickly, for the visit of a Falkirk side who have won back to back matches, rather convincingly. They also welcome back a couple of players, although Hughes may decide to go with the players who performed so well last weekend.

Both sides met, at Rugby Park, a month ago, a game which saw a Kyle hat-trick earn the home side all 3 points. Falkirk, however, had won 2 of their last 3 visits to the ground before then. The last fixture will give hope to Jim Jefferies and his side, which proves they are able to get the better of the Bairns. They also know that if they do win, they will extend their 3 point advantage to 6 with another 2 home games left to play. Falkirk are the form team and that goes for a lot in these matches where confidence is everything.

Football’s a funny old game and I’m taking Falkirk to avenge their 3-0 defeat on their last visit to Ayrshire.

My selection: Falkirk to beat Kilmarnock

Best odds available: 13/5 available atBet365

Good luck and Happy punting


May 9th, 2009 / callum - Category: Sports Betting

Saturday 2nd May

Scottish Premier League

12.30

Aberdeen v Celtic

The first post-split match in the SPL takes place between Aberdeen and Champions, Celtic at Pittodrie. The away side are a solitary point ahead of arch rivals Rangers, whilst Jimmy Calderwood’s side are chasing a Europa league spot for next season.

Aberdeen will have to contend with a number of injuries and suspensions tomorrow afternoon, with no fewer than 5 first team regulars, including strikers Lee Miller and Darren Mackie, whilst their defensive lynchpin, Zander Diamond, also misses out. One piece of good news is the return of Mark Kerr who has impressed throughout his first season at the Dons. Calderwood is likely to move Scott Severin back into the defence allowing Kerr to take up his favoured holding role in the middle of the park.

Celtic boss, Gordon Strachan took his league leading side away to La Manga for a short break in order to focus their minds with a fortnight break between their last game and tomorrow’s match. The break has witnessed the return to fitness of captain Stephen McManus and top scorer, Giorgios Samaras who had missed their previous match, which was, ironically enough, against tomorrow’s opponents. McManus will almost certainly take his customary place in the back four, but it looks as though Samaras will have to make do with a place on the bench as Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink and Scott McDonald both scored two weeks ago. Celtic will have to do without Scott Brown who begins a two match ban which is a massive blow as the former Hibs player has been in sparkling form this season, earning himself a nomination for Players player of the year. Strachan has several options available to him, he could bring Paul Hartley in alongside Marc Crosas but the most likely central midfield partnership will be Gary Caldwell alongside Hartley.

Aberdeen have proven to be tough opposition for Celtic this season. The Dons were unlucky losers in September at Celtic Park when a last minute Hesselink goal denied them of a deserved point which was followed by a dominating 4-2 success in January at Pittodrie when Diamond bullied Celtic’s defence at set pieces, nothing two goal for himself. Celtic were most comfortable however, a fortnight ago when they brushed aside Aberdeen, 2-0. The absence of Lee Miller and Darren Mackie were key as there was no real outlet or threat upfront for the away side that day.

Celtic know that if they win their next 5 matches, they will win the league. They will be refreshed from their Spanish break and the vibes coming out of the club are positive with the return of key players in recent weeks and the return to form of Vennegoor of Hesselink has been crucial. Aberdeen will again miss their potent attack which is a big part of their side. Without Miller’s physical presence they lacked any threat and created very few chances. Diamond will also prove to be a massive miss at the back, especially with JVOH in such good form at the moment.

Celtic should win this match and if they get an early goal they could easily get a few.

My selection: Celtic to beat Aberdeen

Best odds available: 4/6 with Boylesports

Other selections:     Celtic -1 to beat Aberdeen 15/8 withWillhill

                                         Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink to score anytime 6/4 withCoral

 

Good luck and Happy punting


May 1st, 2009 / callum - Category: Football Betting

Saturday 18th April

English Championship

Swansea v Bristol City

Both sides can still reach the play-offs mathematically, but only one can do so realistically. Swansea are 5 points behind Burnley whilst City are a further 4 points behind. Ipswich’s equalizer on Monday should prove fatal for Gary Johnson’s promotion bid and another season in the England’s 2nd tier beckons.

I’ve tipped Swansea enough for everyone to know their home record (only two defeats all season) so I won’t repeat myself further. They are unbeaten in their last 4 matches but more importantly, have won their last two. A battling win over Norwich at home, was followed by an excellent away victory at Barnsley on Easter Monday. Roberto Martinez’s side are benefiting from the end of season parks by continuing to play their quick passing game whilst other teams are struggling to deal with the fiery playing surfaces.

Bristol City are on a poor run of form just at the wrong stage of the season. After a strong run from January onwards, they have slipped of late and failed to win in their last 6. City have also lost their last 4 on the road which does not bode well for tomorrow’s match.

The Swans have won 2 of their last 3 and have continued to make the Liberty stadium a fortress. A win tomorrow will strengthen their hope of reaching the play-offs. I think that there is an air of acceptance around Bristol City’s supporters and players which was illustrated on Monday when they conceded the equalizer. A Swansea win tomorrow will definitely end City’s season and I expect that to be the case.

My selection: Swansea to beat Bristol City

Best odd’s available: 4/5 with Betfred

English League 1

Leeds United v Tranmere Rovers

Another tussle involving sides seeking promotion, this time in League 1 with a match between 5th placed Leeds up against 6th placed Tranmere.

Leeds suffered their first defeat in 12 matches after conceding a goal 2 minutes into injury time against league leaders, Leicester on Monday. They were desperately unlucky to come away with nothing and tomorrow’s match is sure to be a test of character. Their home record is exceptional however, especially recently. United have only won their last 8 at Elland Road, defeating the likes of MK Dons, Peterborough and Millwall on their way.

Tranmere have had a very good season thus far and seem to be coming with a good run of form at exactly the right time. Unbeaten in 5 (winning four of them), they have won two of their last 3, drawing the other match. Ronnie Moore’s side have built their season on their impressive home record but are now beginning to pick up more points on the road. Their recent away wins however, have tended to come against sides below them in the league (Walsall and Oldham) whilst struggling to gain points against sides directly above them, losing away to MK Dons, Millwall and Leicester.

Tomorrow’s match is sure to be an enthralling encounter and both sides will no doubt be looking to win to cement their place within the play-offs. I just feel that Leeds have an extra bit of quality with the likes of Jermaine Beckford and Fabian Delph in their ranks. A passionate and noisy Leeds faithful can roar their side on to another home win and make it 9 in a row.

My selection: Leeds to beat Tranmere

Best odds available: 4/5 with Coral

English Premier

Sunderland v Hull City

A real relegation 6 points takes place on Saturday at the Stadium of Light when 17th placed Sunderland play host to 15th placed Hull City.

Both sides know that they can ill-afford to lose this match tomorrow as teams around them face games where they will expect to pick up points. With that in mind, tomorrow’s match is sure to be a nervous one with experience and proven Premiership quality going to be extremely important.

Sunderland were narrowly defeated by Man United at home last weekend, the difference being a fortunate deflection off Frederico Macheda. Their manager, players and supporters know that it is not those matches which will save them, it is the games against teams in and around them that will ultimately determine their fate. They can take great heart from their performance last Saturday and know that if they can deliver a similar one tomorrow, they will be well placed to pick up a vital 3 points.

After an excellent first half of the season, Hull have slipped back and are now in a position that most people expected them to be in when they won promotion last season. Phil Brown has done an excellent job this term and whatever happens from now until the end of the season, City fans will have had a memorable first year in the Premiership. Losing last week to Middlesborough was a sore one as they themselves had not won in an age.

Sunderland are at the foot of the form table with no wins in 6 whilst Hull have the solitary success in that time. I just feel that the home side have proven Premiership experience and quality in the likes of Richardson, Cisse and Jones which should just see them collect 3 points in a nervy and pressure soaked atmosphere.

My selection: Sunderland to beat Hull

Best odds available: 10/11 with bet365


April 17th, 2009 / callum - Category: Football Betting

Saturday 7th March

FA Cup 

Fulham v Manchester United

After clinching the League cup on penalties last Sunday, Manchester United are straight back into domestic cup action with an FA cup quarter final tie against Fulham at Craven Cottage.

United are a still on course for an unprecedented quintuple. Having already secured the World club championship in December, as well as the League cup last weekend, they go in search for the third leg of their desired trophy haul but they will meet stubborn resistance up against a Fulham side who suffered only their second defeat in the EPL at home all season on Wednesday.

Alex Ferguson is likely to make changes from the team that defeated Newcastle at St James’ Park in Premier League in midweek past. United also take on Inter Milan next Wednesday in the 2nd leg of their Champions League, last 16 tie which is surely more of a priority in their bid to become the first side to retain the trophy. Despite that, with the squad he has at his disposal he can still rest key players and replace them with full Internationalists.

Fulham have had a relatively straightforward passage to this stage having played clubs from lower leagues in rounds 3-5. They suffered a couple of scares in the last round against Swansea, not only did the Championship side take them to a replay at the Cottage, they also took the lead before succumbing to two quick goals in the 2nd half. Roy Hodgson and his side do not have much else to play for other than this competition. That’s not a slight; he has done remarkably well to establish Fulham in mid-table for much of the season and relatively safe from relegation. Due to that, he can ask his players for a massive effort tomorrow evening and his players are sure to respond.

Both sides strength is getting the ball down and allowing their midfielders to roam around the park creating chances for their strikers. Both sides also have excellent defenses and goalkeepers and as a result, unsurprisingly, do not lose many goals.

United have not been great away from home this season and are not as free-scoring as they were last season. They have improved of late however, and are beginning to win the type of games that they were drawing earlier in the season. There is a steely determination amongst the players which is down to Ferguson and the older statesmen in the squad. Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs have been excellent of late and look set to play some part in London tomorrow.

Fulham will be up for it and the night setting along with the TV cameras will add a little extra spice to the game. United will not want a replay to add to an already congested schedule whilst Fulham know that their best chance of progressing is to win the first time of asking on their home patch. With that in mind I expect an open and attractive contest with the attackers getting a bit of space. United have the better quality of player and I expect them to get their 4th win on the trot at Craven Cottage.

My selection: Manchester United to beat Fulham

Best odds available: 10/11 with Williamhill

Other bets advised: More than 2 goals at a best price of 13/10 with Bet365

Other information for Saturday’s games

I do not fancy much else this weekend as it is Cup weekend in both England and Scotland and this dramatically limits a lot of my options for advising bets. I do not have enough information to strongly advise another pick but I have a couple of fancies at decent prices which I will put up but I cannot stress enough, these are just personal fancies having done only a small bit of research.

Sheffield Wednesday v Wolves

Wolves travel to Hillsborough to take on one of the stronger home sides in the division in a match which may go a long way to ensuring automatic promotion come the end of the season.

After being publicly lambasted by manager Mick McCarthy after last week’s home defeat to Plymouth, the league leaders responded brilliantly by taking all three points from Tuesday’s match at Crystal Palace in a match where they were back to something like their best.

Good teams tend to put together runs at this time of year and after some desperate form of late, Wolves look good value to record back to back wins from difficult away matches.

Best price 6/4 with Betfred.

Confidence level: 4/10

QPR v Sheffield United

Another team chasing the automatic promotion places travel to another team fighting mid-table mediocrity with a late push for the play-offs. United have been excellent on the road of last whilst QPR have slipped in recent weeks, especially at home where they began the season so strong.

QPR have not won at home in the league since December of last year, a run of 4 draws and two defeats, both have which came in their two most recent matches at Loftus road. United on the other hand, boast the best away record in the division along with Wolves and have not suffered an away reverse since their derby day defeat in October.

With Birmingham looking vulnerable in every game they player, Kevin Blackwell and his boys know they can put more pressure on them and the other teams above them by winning their second away match in the space of a week.

Sheffield United to win at a best price 15/8 with Coral

 

 

Confidence level: 4/10

 

 


March 6th, 2009 / callum - Category: Football Betting

Saturday 20th February

Reading v Bristol City

Bristol City visit the Madejski stadium on Saturday looking to get back on track after losing their first league match since the end of December whilst the host’s will look to continue their very impressive home record.

Reading have been nothing short of sensational when playing at home this season. From 16 matches at the Madejski in the Championship this season, they have picked up maximum points on 12 occasions, losing only once – a 2-1 defeat to lowly Southampton. The key to their success at home has been their ability to hold on to nearly all their big players from last season’s relegation from the EPL. Kevin Doyle, Stephen Hunt and James Harper have been key to their lofty position and are all Premiership class players. Stephen Hunt’s brother, Noel, has been an inspirational signing as well for Steve Coppell. The striker has already bagged 10 goals despite starting on the bench for most of the first half of the season. As well as quality going forward, Reading also have the best home defensive record in the league, conceding just 8 all season.

Bristol City suffered their first defeat, since losing at home to Burnley in December, against Doncaster on Tuesday night. By all accounts they were poor that night, and also lucky against Southampton last weekend, despite picking up 3 points. Their recent good run has found them just outside the promotion places and credit must go to manager Gary Johnson who stuck by his philosophy of playing good football. Their overall away record has been more than decent. They have been victorious seven times on the road, losing 6. Those statistics may not tell the whole story however. All 7 of their wins have come against sides currently in the bottom half of the table whilst 4 of their 6 defeats have come against teams currently above them in the table.

Reading are currently 4 points off top spot with a couple of games in hand over the teams who occupy the automatic promotion places and know that these kind of games are crucial if they want to go straight back into the top flight. Wolves and Birmingham have been stuttering of late and Reading can put the pressure on them big time. Bristol City may prove stubborn tomorrow afternoon but I expect them to lose for the 4th time in 5 matches at the Madejski.

My Selection: Reading to beat Bristol City

Best odds available: 8/11 with betfred

Plymouth v Sheffield United

Plymouth manager, Paul Sturrock has been under huge pressure following a run of 7 defeats from 9 games with the other 2 ending in stalemates. It could be argued that the visit of a side who have not tasted defeat in 13 away games, is not what he would have wanted.

Argyle have put up little resistance to the likes of Derby, Crystal Palace and Charlton in the last fortnight. They have conceded a total of 8 and scored just the once in the trio of games preceding tomorrow’s match. There were calls from the Plymouth fans for Sturrock to be sacked following Tuesday’s home match against Palace but the board have given the Scot a bit more time to get it sorted and Sturrock himself has come out fighting.

Sheffield United have had to contend with the loss of star man and top goalscorer, James Beattie, who was sold to Premiership side, Stoke City. Since his sale, the steel city side have struggled to win matches – they have only managed to pick up maximum points once. Having said that they are still proving stubborn to beat and their derby reverse at home to Wednesday, was the only time they have come away with nothing.

Plymouth, as you would expect from a team lying 19th, have struggled to pick up points at Home Park this season. At what is normally a tough place to visit, they have only managed to take 18 points from a total of 16 matches, losing a staggering 8 of these (incidentally the joint worst in the division). Sheffield United on the other hand are one of the stronger sides on the road. They have won 7 of their 16 games losing just four. They have conceded the least amount of goals when playing away as well, losing just 13 all season.

You can usually tell when a team is not playing for their manager and it looks increasingly like that this is the case with Plymouth Argyle. Just 3 points outside of the relegation zone having played more games than everybody else, they are really up against it. United sit in 6th place, the last play-off position, but know they must keep on winning to stay there. They will be looking for a repeat of their 1-0 victory in the corresponding fixture last term and I fancy them to get it.

My selection: Sheffield United to beat Plymouth

Best odds available: 5/4 with totesport

Inverness Caley Thistle v Hibs

Since Terry Butcher’s arrival as manager of ICT, Caley have held both Celtic and Dundee United in the league whilst defeating Kilmarnock at home in the last round of the Scottish cup. Hibs have had an indifferent season thus far and find themselves well off the pace for the coveted 3rd spot behind the Old Firm pair.

Before Butcher took the reins, Inverness were on an abysmal run of 9 defeats in 10 league matches. They looked like a team in desperate need of a change and thankfully for the club, they got just that. They look much more solid and compact as a team, whilst also carrying more of a threat going forward. Dougie Imrie has been a key player for the Highlanders in the last month and he is just the type of player they need to have any chance of survival. Richie Foran has also been signed on loan, as has Filipe Morais, and both have these have added a bit more variety in the final third.

Hibs have struggled for consistency all season long and it shows in their recent results. From their last 6 matches, they have won 1, drawn 3, and lost 2. Derek Riordan is beginning to look more like the player he was 3 years ago when he was first at the club whilst Steven Fletcher and Rob Jones are both set to return to the side. The capital club will be disappointed with last week’s 1-1 draw with Kilmarnock considering their opponents barely had a fit striker. They will be determined to get back on the winning trail this week to salvage any sort of push for a European place.

Hibs’ record in Inverness is nothing short of disastrous. Not only have they failed to win at the Caledonian stadium, they have managed just a solitary goal on their trips through. They have managed an away win over ICT, but that match took place at Pittodrie which was the Highlanders home in their very first season in the SPL. Due to the feel good factor around Caley at the moment added to the mediocrity that has blighted Hibs all season long, I can’t see the home side getting beat tomorrow.

I would urge slight caution in backing ICT outright tomorrow as they have not won in the league for a long time. Instead, I’d advise backing ICT on a ‘draw no bet’. This bet means that if the game ends in a draw, your stake will be refunded or if part of a multiple, it will be declared a non-runner.

My Selection: ICT ‘Draw no bet’

Odds available:  ICT ‘Draw no bet’ = 5/6 with Bluesquare


February 20th, 2009 / callum - Category: Football Betting

 

Saturday 14th February

English FA Cup

Swansea v Fulham

Championship side Swansea host Fulham of the Premier League in Saturday’s early kick off in one of the tie’s of the round.

The away side head into this game on the back of a run which has seen them lose only two matches out of their last fifteen. The impressive form has seen them record 6 wins with 2 of these coming in this competition, both away against lower league opposition.  Despite these victories away from home in the cup, they have yet to take maximum points on their travels in the league. From their last 3 matches in the league they have lost two and drew the other one, last week’s goalless draw with Wigan.

As I have no doubt mentioned before, Swansea have been a revelation this term. Roberto Martinez has put together a team full of craft, pace and ability and entwined it with graft and enthusiasm. Despite missing last season’s star man, Ferrie Bodde, for much of the season they have put together a run of even better form than Saturday’s visitors. Since their reverse at home to Birmingham in November, they have went on a run of 15 games unbeaten. Granted, 9 of those games were stalemates, but it should be noted that they have won 6 of their last 7 games, including their impressive 2-0 victory over Portsmouth in the last round. Incidentally, their last defeat was also their only home defeat of the season; winning 7 and drawing 8.

Swansea have done exceptionally well against the more cultured sides in the Championship this season, defeating the likes of Reading, Preston, Ipswich and Burnley in recent weeks, with relative ease as well it has to be said. The likes of Jason Scotland, Jordi Gomez and Nathan Dyer are far more effective when they are given space to play and Fulham will allow them a lot of the ball on Saturday as they will look to hit the hosts on the counter-attack.

Fulham have been given two tough games thus far in the FA Cup. They have left it late against both Sheffield Wednesday and Kettering Town, the winning goals coming in the last 5 minutes in both cases – they will find this match even tougher. Having only managed 6 points all season on the road, and scoring a paltry 3 goals in the process, I can see them coming unstuck at what is sure to be a rocking Liberty Stadium.

I think Saturday’s game will be an open game and can see both sides scoring, I just feel that the home side will have a little too much for their higher ranking opponents.

My selection: Swansea to beat Fulham

The best odds available for a Swansea win is  13/8 with Skybet

 

Also, if you are not as confident in the outright result, I would advise a couple of side bets for a little bit of added interest in what is sure to be an enthralling encounter.

Other selections: Jason Scotland to score anytime 2/1 with Paddypower

More than 2 goals in Swansea v Fulham 5/4 with Stanjames

Saturday 14th February

English League One

Oldham v Northampton

High flying Oldham entertain perennial mid table finishers Northampton at Boundary Park on Saturday in a match they will be looking to gain all three points in a bid to keep their promotion challenge firmly on track.

Despite a couple of recent setbacks on their travels, Oldham have continued to be a force at home. They have picked up 8 wins and 6 draws from their 15 home games in league 1 already this season, including gaining maximum points from 2 of their last 3. A big part of their success is the quality of their strikers, especially Lee Hughes. The controversial hitman has bagged 15 already this term. Midfielders Liddell and Taylor also have 8 goals apiece, add that to the experience of Dean Windass, on loan from Hull City, then it’s not hard to understand why Oldham sit in 5th place, 7 points off the 2nd automatic promotion spot.

Northampton are something of an enigma. Despite proving incredibly difficult to beat on their own turf (only 3 defeats from 15), they have only managed to pick up 3 points on two occasions when playing away from Sixfields. Both these victories were against sides below them in the table and both are currently occupying positions within the relegation zone.

Despite having to contend with a suspension to their goalkeeper, the home side should have too much firepower at the other end of the pitch for Northampton to cope with and should take all 3 points. It’s a game they will have targeted as a must win beforehand and they should oblige.

My selection: Oldham to beat Northampton

The best odds available are 8/11 from Betfred Betfred

Saturday 14th February

English FA Cup

West Ham v Middlesborough

An all Premier league clash between two sides enjoying contrasting fortunes. The home side are flying in the top half of the table under Gianfranco Zola whilst ‘Boro are on their worst run in 13 years. These are games I normally avoid due to their unpredictable nature but I just cannot see where the away side are going to pick up anything.

Survival is the name of the game for Saturday’s visitors to Upton Park on Saturday. Slap bang in the middle of the relegation zone and without a win in the EPL since the beginning of November, manager Gareth Southgate is faced with his biggest task yet since taking charge. In spite of their shocking league form, they have managed to make it through to this stage by defeating lower league opposition in the shape of Wolves and Barrow.

Zola has started to stamp his mark on this side after a relatively timid opening couple of months in charge. Their narrow defeat to Man United last Sunday was their first reverse since the middle of December, a run of games which has seen them win 6 and draw 2. The likes of Cole, Collison, Behrami and Mark Noble will be a handful for an away side who have failed to win at Upton park since 2000.

The cup may prove to be a welcome distraction for ‘Boro but their pitiful recent form leaves a lot to be desired. Zola will know that defeat would mean merely playing out the rest of the season and hoping for a top 10 finish whereas victory could be the catalyst for a prolonged run in a competition they came so close to winning in 2006.

Roared on by an now expectant home crowd, the pace and power of West Ham should be more than enough to brush aside Southgate’s charges.  

My selection: West Ham to beat Middlesborough

The best odds available for a West Ham win is 5/6 available with Boylesports


February 13th, 2009 / callum - Category: Football Betting










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