rafael benitez

David Sullivan and David Gold have recently bought 50% of West Ham United and the bookmakers are sensing a wind of change at Upton Park. The club are heavily in debt to the tune of over £100 million and, although Sullivan claimed this week that Gianfranco Zola’s position as manager is safe until the end of the season, firms have taken a more cynical view. Paddy Power offer 6/4 that the Italian is the next Premier League manager to leave his post and Sky Bet go even shorter with their quote of 5/4. The former Chelsea striker is a popular figure with Hammers supporters, although it’s possible that the new owners will want to draft in their own candidate.

Indeed, Sky Bet have created a ‘Next West Ham Manager’ market and the strong favourite is Mark Hughes. The UK-based bookmaker offer just 10/11 that the former Manchester City manager is brought in and the Welshman did perform minor miracles at Blackburn Rovers with a shoestring budget. Despite being Zola’s predecessor, Sky Bet have Alan Curbishley next on the list at 7/1, with former Hammer Slaven Bilic also available at these odds and declaring an interesting in English football management.

Meanwhile, Rafael Benitez is unsurprisingly short at 5/2 (Paddy Power) on the ‘Next Manager to Leave’ market, although the Spaniard has been trading at short odds before and lived to tell the tale. It appears that the Liverpool manager had a vote of confidence from co-owner George Gillett this week, who described him as ‘one of the world’s top managers’. It doesn’t appear as though any exit from Anfield is imminent, although this is a bet that might be profitable if no other manager steps down between now and May.

There doesn’t appear to be too many other managers whose positions are in threat at the moment, although Sky Bet don’t think Sam Allardyce is out of the woods despite Blackburn’s recent 2-0 win over Fulham. They offer 5/1 that the former Bolton gaffer is the next to walk, although Paddy Power are happy to lay him at odds of 9/1. His former number two Phil Brown is also required to produce the results that will keep the Tigers in the Premier League or face the sack and Paddy Power go 7/1 about the Hull manager which is the same as Sky Bet.

Meanwhile, Sky Bet have created a number of other manager specials, including Next Liverpool Manager. Unsurprisingly, Kenny Dalglish is 5/2 favourite as he’s the obvious temporary successor to Benitez, although Guus Hiddink (5/2) and Jose Mourinho (3/1) are more viable candidates to assume the Anfield hotseat. Perhaps the Special One is waiting for Sir Alex Ferguson to vacate the Old Trafford manager’s position, with Sky Bet making him 3/1 co-favourite to manage Manchester United next. Martin O’Neill also appears to be in the running.

Finally, along came a quiet weekend where I could watch the early match on Saturday and strike some In-Play bets down at bet365. It was a rollercoaster ride, especially with some highly unusual results!

Portsmouth v Liverpool was the lunchtime kick-off, with bet365 going 8/13 about the visitors before the match kicks off. Pompey look an attractive bet at 5/1, although will they be even bigger when the game starts? Last season’s fixture between these teams finished 3-2, although all the goals were scored in the second-half, so I’ll be thinking about an Over 2.5 Goals bet if the odds start to drift above even money.

Thirteen minutes gone and it’s been a cagey match. Liverpool have forced corners in the 11th and 12th minute and bet365 now offer 1/14 about the Reds in the race to 5 corners market. With Portmouth playing only one man up front, they appear to have set up to try and contain their opponents. The draw on the half-time result market has gone into 4/5, with Avram Grant’s team looking as though they would be happy to get to the interval with the match all square.

Half an hour gone at Fratton Park and still not much happening. It’s a game where both teams seem preoccupied with not conceding, with Fernando Torres and Frederic Piquionne cutting isolated figures for their respective teams. The Reds have now drifted to 8/11 with bet365 and those that think Liverpool will win might be waiting until they hit even money. Meanwhile, Pompey have clawed it back on the corners battle and it’s now three apiece. They had been 10/1 not so long ago!

After 35 mins, Avram Grant’s team find the breakthrough and bet365 cut their match odds to 6/5. The draw is available at 2/1 and Liverpool are 5/2, although the Reds look demoralised by falling behind and it’s the home team who are pressing forward. As half-time approaches, it gets even worse for the visitors and all markets are suspended after Javier Mascherano’s reckless challenge on Tal Ben Haim. You can almost hear the traders frantically working with their calculators to price up the latest markets and Portsmouth are now 1/2 with bet365 to win the match. Liverpool have gone from a pre-match 8/13 to an In-Play 7/1, with the Reds having to reshape after the loss of their midfielder.

The game continues to drift away from Liverpool in the second half, with Pompey available at 2/5 in the 56th minute, 1/3 in the 64th minute and 1/4 in the 76th minute. The Reds simply don’t look like scoring and Frederic Piquionne puts them out of their misery in the 82nd minute.

It just goes to show that it often pays to go against the grain, especially as Liverpool rarely threatened when they went 1-0 down at Fratton Park, although the home team could be backed at odds-against until Javier Mascherano was sent off. Click here to check out the latest In-Play markets at bet365.

After Tuesday night’s Group E matches, it was confirmed that Liverpool’s participation in the Champions League this season would be over (well, after their match against Fiorentina in early December). The Reds will instead join the seven other third-placed teams in the newly-rebranded Europa League, entering the competition at the last-32 knockout stage. They won’t be the only so-called ‘big club’ failing to make the business end of Europe’s premier competition, with Inter Milan and Bayern Munich also facing the prospect of playing Fulham instead of Chelsea next year.

Bet365 have been quick to install Liverpool as 6/1 favourites to win this season’s Europa League and, considering that the Reds have regularly featured at the business end of the Champions League in recent seasons, many people will be backing the Reds for European glory of a different kind. However, it’s worth noting that the UEFA Cup semi-finals of the past five seasons have been populated more by teams who have been in the tournament from the start, rather than those who have dropped down.

The 2008/9 season was an exception to this rule, with UEFA Cup winners Shakhtar, Werder Bremen and Dynamo Kiev having played in the Champions League (Hamburg were the other team in the final four). However, the previous four seasons has seen 75% of semi-finalists originally entering Europe’s secondary cup competition at the preliminary or the group stages. During 2007/8, Zenit, Bayern Munich and Fiorentina were the originals, while the same could be said of Spanish trio of Sevilla, Espanyol and Osasuna in 2006/7.

Middlesbrough, Sevilla and Steaua Bucharest all made the semi-finals of the 2005/6 competition having not originally played in the Champions League, while AZ Alkmaar, Sporting and Parma were the originals of 2004/5. The point with all of these examples is that the bookmakers tend to overrate ‘Champions League teams’ when it comes to pricing up the Europa League. There is a reason why Liverpool, Bayern et al finished third in their group – namely that they weren’t good enough!

In addition, Liverpool could easily find themselves preoccupied with finishing fourth in the Premier League, rather than win a competition where there is only a limited amount of glory. While there is a gap in quality between the Champions League and the Europa League, teams like Shakhtar, Werder, Benfica and Valencia are more likely to comprise the semi-finals of the competition than Liverpool, Inter and Bayern Munich. Three of the last four champions have been teams who have previously earned the right to be featuring in this tournament and are therefore more likely to treat it with respect at the later stages.