rbs six nations

Sunday sees England’s chance to secure a win away from home for Martin Johnson, as the relatively new England coach has seen his side suffer a lot on their travels. Now with England’s second game of the RBS Six Nations against the minnows of the tournament, England, who are determined to play an expansive game whatever the weather conditions are, look to keep up their challenge. The weather forecast is meant to be raining in Rome, which will make for difficult handling conditions. England will have watched France power their way to victory over Ireland, firmly confirming them as favourites to win the Six Nations. The fixtures for 2010 are favouring France, as they still have to play England at home on the final day of the tournament. If things go to plan, then that could be the championship, even Grand Slam decider in Paris.

But it will be one step at a time for Martin Johnson and his men, and it will start with a tough physical battle against Italy. England have gone for raw power up front, hoping to suck all the energy out of the Italians, so that their running backs can get into the game later. While England have not lost at Rome’s Stadio Flaminio, they were run very close to a defeat a couple of years ago, having to hold on for a nail biting finish. There really should not be any hint of that happening again this season, as England can seriously challenge for the Six Nations Crown. They have seen Ireland defeated, and the next crucial test will come in the third round of matches, when the Irish travel to Twickenham.

Jonny Wilkinson gets to team up with dynamic centre Riki Flutey in Rome, with Flutey the key players, in quite an offensive minded three quarters. With Matthew Tait playing in his preferred position, and Delon Armitage looking like a solid full back, England should have some good cutting edge if they can get the ball moving quickly. There may be defensive skill sets which will need working on, as highlighted when the Welsh staged a comeback at Twickenham on the opening day, but that could all come from confidence in going forward. Attack is the best form of defence, and that is exactly what the difference should be between the England and the Italians on Sunday. The Italians showed nothing offensively against a lack-lustre Ireland in their first match, and with the right platform from the powerful pack, England should stroll to victory and break their losing streak away from Twickenham,

Out of 15 matches against the Italians, England have won all 15, running up 630 points and conceding just 187.

England to win: 1/10 at Coral
Italy to win: 10/1 at SportingBet
Draw: 50/1 at Ladbrokes

England will be looking for a strong performance from their inexperienced pack in their second Six Nations match of the 2010 campaign. After opening successfully against Wales, England now need to build upon the foundations which were laid down in the match at Twickenham. It won’t be the same side taking the field in Italy, as Toby Flood will drop to the bench in favour of Riki Flutey, who was chosen to start against the Welsh, but picked up an injury prior to the match. New Zealand born Flutey, who finished last season’s tournament as joint top try-scorer, is the key man in the English three quarters, as he is widely regarded as being the inspirational flair player that England have so desperately been missing. He will add a dynamic running game, which not only means that he will add an extra individual spark, his presence will have a knock on effect on Jonny Wilkinson, who won’t have to sit so defensively deep and rely on his kicking game.

With Flutey being more offensively minded than Flood, it will allow the English backs to be more aggressive in attacking the gain line, and in order to feed him properly and get the best from him, he will be feed on a quicker, more advanced platform. It means that Wilkinson should have a lot more time on the ball, as long as the feeds remain quick coming from the break down. The match against Italy will be a physical test up front for England, as the Italians showed their muscle against Ireland in their defeat to the defending Six Nations champions. The battle will likely be carried up front for a large part of the early stages, as that is the kind of thing which can sap the strength out of the Italians, allowing England’s running backs to come in the game more in the second half.

After some doubts with knocks and bangs to a few key players, boss Martin Johnson will field much the same side as he did against Wales, with only Flutey and Dan Cole being tactical replacements. England’s prop David Wilson looked one of the weaker links in the game against Wales, and now he has made way for the exciting young prospect of Leicester’s Cole, who gets his first start in an England shirt.

As much as England would like to express themselves in their much promised role of running rugby, the weather in Rome is likely to hamper any plans of that. It has already been snowing, and there is heavy rain due on Sunday. There will be no room to cover the stadium, so fitness up front could be one of the key deciding factors in the game. England are going for power, as well as looking to improve the cohesion within the forwards. There is plenty of experience on the bench for Johnson to call on in the latter stages, and it is hard to see Italy posing any real threat to the English, if England stick to the plan and don’t get complacent. While the Twickenham victory over Wales was comprehensive on the score board, they still let Wales back into the game when they should have been dead and buried, which took the gloss of the result a little bit.

Italy still look to have to come quite a way when trying to get points on the board in the Six Nations. Italian coach Nick Mallett has made a couple of changes from the Irish game, in which the Italians lacked any real impetus going forward, and sucked Ireland into a dour, uneventful second half. The Italians are yet to beat England in the Six Nations, despite coming close in 2008 when England were arguably going through one of their worst spells of international rugby. Johnson’s hopes is that he can drag his nation back to the top of the World, buy building a team which can play with freedom in the backs, and bond together in the inexperienced front row.

Match Prices
England to win: 1/9 at Blue Square
Draw: 40/1 at Bet365
Italy to win: 10/1 at Sporting Bet

Saturday sees the second round of the Six Nations, with a crucial clash at the Millenium Stadium between two of last week’s losers. Either Wales or Scotland will get their championship on track with a victory down in Cardiff, and this can have huge repercussions about gaining momentum for the rest of the tournament. Wales played an error-ridden game against England, and looked uncohesive in the backs, which is where they are most expected to show a lot of potential. It was only in 2008 which they won the Six Nations, but they looked a long way short of that fluency and leadership which took them there. They did put up something of a spirited fight back against the English after the home side had stretched out a big lead at Twickenham after the sin-binning of Alun-Wyn Jones. That was just the main highlight of a lot of errors.

While the teams are usually a bit rusty on the opening weekend of the RBS Six Nations championships, Wales’ defeat will have left coach Warren Gatland with a lot of head scratching. While there were positives to take from the defeat, such as James Hook, the biggest change looks as it needs to come in the scrum half position, to try and inspire some fluency, but above all, accuracy. Richie Rees should get the nod, while Wales await’s the return of first choice scrum half Dwayne Peel from injury. The Welsh were also a mess at the line-outs, and the management staff will just be looking for more consistency, and an all -round step up in performance. The defeat will have put pressure on the whole team, and now Wales have now lost their last three Six Nations games and need desperately to stop the rot. Wales do favour the running game, but they need the forwards to try and stabilise positions first, giving them a platform. If they can expand against Scotland, then the Welsh will be the better team.

However Scotland will favour a more defensive tactic, and lean heavily on the kicking game, especially away from home. It was a tactic which England employed against the Welsh, albeit not a very accurate one, but it was still enough to keep Wales largely on the back foot. Wales will also face another deadly penalty kicker, just as they did in Jonny Wilkinson. On Saturday they will have the remarkable Chris Paterson, who just never seems to miss from anywhere, such an exemplary kicker he is. Now there is a big row over Scotland’s coach Andy Robinson not wanting the roof of the Millenium Stadium closed in the days leading up to the match. Both coaches have to agree to have it closed against the elements, therefore making for a hard surface. Naturally that would suit the running game of the Welsh, so naturally Robinson doesn’t want to give the opposition an advantage.

Scotland need to address some serious problems which were highlighted in their scrum. They literally got torn apart by a rampant and strong French pack, and if the forwards aren’t there for the Scots, then they will have problems. Scotland need to challenge at the line-outs, and slow the Welsh game down by controlling things in the forwards. Even if that happens, it looks unlikely that even on a good day, the Scots would be able to outscore the Welsh. Scotland do have big backs, but the speed of the Welsh backs should more than counter for that. A lot could depend on the condition of the pitch when it comes to kick off. Scotland would be happier with a slower game, mired in the mud, because a wet ball will be unlikely thrown around the Welsh backs as much. Scotland will have the important figure of Euan Murray in the scrum, as they need to step up a gear, and find the unity that saw them beat Australia in the autumn.

Wales v Scotland Stats

Matches
Wales: 64
Scotland: 48
Drawn: 3

Biggest winning margin
Wales: 22-46
Scotland: 31-10

Average points per match:
Wales: 12.30
Scotland: 10.25

Match Prices:
Wales to win: 2/7 at Bwin
Scotland to win: 9/2 at SportingBet
Draw: 25/1 at Bet365

It has been billed as the Six Nations decider, even though it is only the second round of the tournament. Six nations champions Ireland travel to Paris to take on the 2010 tournament favourites France. Although France still have that air of unpredictability about them, they still look to be the sharpest team in the tournament this year. That will go against the flow of many, who still see Ireland as the team to beat in 2010. The Irish won the grand slam last year, and critics looking for fallible areas in their game, are pointing towards them being a “Dad’s Army” and casting a very critical eye over their scrum. In their opening fixture, the Irish ran out to a strong lead against Italy in under 20 minutes, but then fell in a disrupted game, looking a long way from their best.

While they were never in danger of losing the match, the Italians showed that the Irish can easily be gotten at, and dragged down. It was the second half performance by Ireland, which really let the home fans down. There was, quite simply, no purpose or direction to the Irish game, and that was made worse against an Italian side who lacked any impetus going forward whatsoever. Perhaps it is possible to put it down to finding their rhythm, and granted, playing against other Six Nations teams is a lot different to playing a southern hemisphere nations. The whole dynamics of the game is different, but another question about the Irish, who did well in the Autumn series of matches, is how well they will cope with keeping their feet on the ground. Was last weekend’s second half performance all down to complacency? Ireland to get a dynamic boost with the return to fitness of flanker Stephen Ferris.

It has been over a decade since the Irish won in France, and judging by the performance of their opening day fortunes, there is little to suggest that the rot will end. The French pack look very strong, and they tore the Scots to shreds in their opening fixture. The French look big, strong and pacy, and will be more than a match for even the big English pack. While they will always have elements of creativity in their three quarters, it could, somewhat uncharacteristically, be the pack which leads them to the top of the table on Saturday. The key will be in the defence, something which the French are extremely good at, being more aggressive than most in the defensive tactics. The French have the strongest defence in the tournament, and should they beat Ireland, it will be their Six Nations to lose.

France do have a fantastic record against the Irish in Paris, having only lost three times in around 50 years. They have had to make two changes to their line-up which played so well against Scotland, and that was without some of their first choice key players. On their home turf, they look a formidable proposition. This will be the first of two crunch games for the French at home in this season’s tournament, as they take on England at the Stade de France on the last weekend on the 2010 RBS Six Nations.

France v Ireland Stats

Matches
France: W51
Ireland: W29
Drawn: 5

Biggest winning margin
France: 44-5
Ireland: 24-0

Average points per match
France: 15.81
Ireland: 11.15

Match Odds
France to win: 1/2 at Totesport
Ireland to win: 2/1 at Bwin
Draw: 22/1 at Boylesports

Latest Six Nations news update:

Injuries are grabbing the latest headlines ahead of the weekend’s matches. That and the pretty awesome Morgan Freeman “Invictus” promo video for the tournament, which has him reading William Henley’s famous poem (it’s the poem which Nelson Mandela had with him during his imprisonment). Ahead of the England v Wales game, Wales were dealt a massive blow when world class flanker Gethin Jenkins has picked up a calf injury which means that he won’t be able to take the field at Twickenham on Saturday. Jenkins is one of the world’s star players in his role, and his presence will be a major loss as the Welsh try to take England on up front. But England were similarly struck with the injury bug, as last seasons top try scorer Riki Flutey has withdrawn through injury. His presence will also be missed as England look to take a more creative, attacking approach to the game. Leicester’s Toby Flood will take over the number 12 shirt on Saturday.

Saturday’s other game sees Ireland take on Italy, with the Irish having to play up their confidence in their scrum, and is the one area where Italy could cause them problems. With the Irish expected to take on the defence of their Six Nations crown with some aplomb, the other nations will naturally be looking to find some kind of weakness there. Hooker Jerry Flannery has admitted that they need to improve their scrummaging from what was on display during the autumn. Italy will be without pivotal figure of Sergio Parisse for the entire 2010 RBS Six Nations Tournament.

Latest Match Prices
England to win: 8/13 at Totesport
Draw: 22/1 at Bwin
Wales to win: 6/4 at Bet365

Scotland to win: 5/2 at SportingBet
Draw: 25/1 at Paddy Power
France: 2/5 at Totesport

Team: Scotland

Scotland vs. France Stats (All time)
France: W45, D3, L34
Biggest Winning Margin: 51-9
Biggest Losing Margin: 31-3
2009 Six Nations Result: France 22, Scotland 13

Chances: Favourites with the majority of bookies, and that is on the strength of their flair and the fact that they beat New Zealand and South Africa last year. However, the French have a reputation for being inconsistent, and that problem has not been addressed by head coach Marc Lievremeont. Yes, they still look dynamic when on top of their game, but they are equally as self destructive when things go wrong. Not scared of changing personnel and trying new things, the French could be their own worst enemies instead of building on pieces of success. Anyone who takes down New Zealand in their own back yard is doing something really, very right with their game. The one which got destroyed by England in last year’s Six Nations, 34-10, are not. The signs are more promising than the last tournament, where they also lost to Ireland.

The one weapon which the French do have, is their pack. While the Welsh may have the best front three in the tournament, the French pack, overall, is regarded as being the best. It is powerful and looks to have the power to go toe-to-toe with the likes of England’s power. The difference is that France already have the running game in their arsenal, and the ball handling skills, which the English often look like they are trying to hard to achieve. It will be in the forwards where France will be able to storm right through the Scottish, but at the same time be wary of the success the Scots had over the Australians in the Autumn. The fixture list could favour the French heavily this year, as they play the other two main contenders, the Irish and the English at home. They do have the ability to win the Six Nations, that is not in question. Their temperament and consistency, is. They do have issues with injuries, but if they bring their A game every week, they will take the crown.

Key Man: Nicolas Mas in the scrum has the experience needed to cause the Scottish front row serious headaches and is a contender, but Imanol Harinordoquy has the complete forward game. An absolute power house both in offence and defence, possibly one of the best in the world at his job. The control he will bring should help the French overcome any inconsistency problems.

Outright Six Nations Odds
6/4 at Blue Square

Scotland v France Match Odds
France to win: 2/5 at Totesport
Draw: 25/1 at Bwin
Scotland to win: 5/2 at SportingBet

Team: Scotland

Number of Six Nations Titles: 0

Finishing Position in 2009 Six Nations: 5th

Scotland vs. France Stats (All time)
Scotland: W34, D3, L45
Biggest Winning Margin: 31-3
Biggest Losing Margin: 51-9
2009 Six Nations Result: France 22, Scotland 13

Chances: Yes, they really did beat Australia in the Autumn Internationals. However, they will probably still find life tough in the Six Nations. They will be as resilient as they possibly could be, but turning that into points against the likes of France and Ireland, will be tough. They have two fascinating home matches, their opener against the French, and other against England. All three of their other games will be played on the road, so it is not going to be an easy 2010 Six Nations for the Scots. They are capable of an upset on their day, but having the level of quality and consistency needed to reproduce that week after week, simply is not there.

They have Andy Robinson at the helm, he who couldn’t do much with England. Still, he has clearly instilled some belief in the Scots after what can be deemed a good autumn, even though they lost their last match to Argentina. It could all be about momentum for the Scots. If they beat the French, then they go to Wales in the second round of fixtures, brimming with confidence, and believing that that should be a game which they should win, as opposed to could win. It will be a lot different going there and having to look for a first win. It would be easy to say that it will all depend on which French side turn up on Sunday. They are still inconsistent, but still a major threat which can tear teams apart. Scotland need to work hard in the pack and quieten the French, making them doubt themselves. Robinson has called Chris Paterson back into the fold as first choice full back Rory Lamont is out through injury.

Key Man: Tough call. They are missing Jason White and Mike Blair, and even though he has just gotten back to the side, the boot of Chris Paterson could play a major role. He can be relied upon time and time again to slot over the kicks which can eat away at leads, or build them. His experience will also be vital alongside Chris Cusiter. The two will need to dictate the flow of the game, and under the right kicking conditions, and on top of his game, the more the Scots can keep the French pushed and turned back with a good kicking game, the more chance they will have.

Outright Six Nations Odds
22/1 at Bwin

Scotland v France Match Odds
France to win: 2/5 at Totesport
Draw: 25/1 at Bwin
Scotland to win: 5/2 at SportingBet

Team: Ireland

Ireland v Italy Stats (All time)
Ireland – W14, D0, L3
Biggest Winning Margin against Italy: 61-6
Largest Losing Margin against Italy: 37-22
2009 Six Nations Result: Italy 9, Ireland 38

Chances: The current champions are favourites at most online bookmakers to go out and retain their title. There is a lot to be argued for the fact that they can do it. They look and accomplished side, and have the power and experience in all areas of the team. If there is one thing which can be said against them, then remember how England were always dubbed “Dad’s Army” as they were rolling towards World Cup triumph, in the same year that they cruised to the Grand Slam in the Six Nations. It’s fair to say that that status can be passed on to Ireland. If you are looking for weaknesses in the Irish game, then it could be in the area of pack and midfield speed. Yes, they undoubtedly have world class players, and the Irish domestic game, along with the Welsh, is in a much better state than the English domestic scene. They constantly blood new talent through their ranks, and the Irish sides are always a handful in European competition. Do the Irish have the legs over the likes of England and France? That will be the big question over the 2010 RBS Six Nations tournament.

They will need to keep level heads if they are to retain their title, and let’s not forget they did struggle at some crucial times during last year’s campaign. The 13-12 result against England could have been very different, and when it came down to the crunch decider against Wales, they looked decidedly nervy, perhaps being over confident in their own abilities. They need to keep their feet on the ground and stick to what they do best. Ronan O’Gara is back in midfield, and that will give them a boost, as the big crunch fixture for Ireland this year, is when they have to travel to Paris to take on the French. The fixture list hasn’t been that kind to the Irish this year, as they also have to go to Twickenham to play England. So, if the new “Dad’s Army” are going to retain their Six Nations crown, they are going to have to do it the hard way. Can they do it? They have the team spirit and right management to do it. While they are the dominant force, it’s still hard to see them getting their way entirely with the French and the English pushing hard.

Key Man: Rob Kearney. One of the outstanding players last year at full back. His ability in the air to take high balls was phenomenal, backed up by good strength and a running game. There will be expectations and pressure upon him to be completely infallible again this year. He is a star player in amongst a wealth of other top quality players. The position he plays however, burdens a lot of responsibility, and his steadfastness and confidence can ease the rest of the 14 players in front of him.

Outright Six Nations Odds
5/2 at BetFred

Ireland v Italy Match Odds
Ireland to win: 1/33 at BetFred
Draw: 50/1 at Bet365
Italy to win: 22/1 at SportingBet

Team: Italy

Ireland v Italy Stats (All time)
Ireland – W14, D0, L3
Biggest Winning Margin against Ireland: 37-22
Largest Losing Margin against Ireland: 61-6
2009 Six Nations Result: Italy 9, Ireland 38

Chances: Still considered as the whipping boys of the Six Nations, and that can be seen by their play having more enthusiasm and energy than clinical finishing and technique. Still, they are on a learning curve, and more often than not, their humble approach to the game gives a lot to be desired. Their endeavours generally entertain, but they still have some catching up to do, and until that happens, they will still struggle to get out of sixth place. Still, they have actually come a long way since their inaugural Six Nations years, they just need to add some consistency and quality to their ranks from somewhere. The step up in quality is not easy to contend with, although they have the ability to take on a beat most other kind of second tier Rugby nations.

With that said, they look to be stronger than last year, with a much fuller squad to choose from. They will be without one of their big names for the entire tournament, as number eight and captain Sergio Parisse is missing through injury. After only scoring two tries last year, they need to find a little extra drive from somewhere. They are not going to keep it tight against the stronger opposition, so their best form of defence will be to attack really. They have sparks of quality which could ignite, but unfortunately it just doesn’t quite flow throughout the whole team. They aren’t going to be expected to go out and beat the likes of England, Ireland and France, but they will target the Scottish in particular as a potential match to avoid the wooden spoon. It should be another long and test development curve for the Italian’s, but every year, they take a step forward.

Key Man: Their main man, Parisse is out, but they have good news in that they can actually pick a specialised scrum half thanks to no injury worries like last season. Therefore, a lot of the creativity will come from centre Mirco Bergamasco, and he will need to pull the strings with both his kicking and running game. If he is off his game, then Italy will struggle to create anything.

Outright Six Nations Odds
250/1 at Bet365

Ireland v Italy Match Odds
Ireland to win: 1/33 at BetFred
Draw: 50/1 at Bet365
Italy to win: 22/1 at SportingBet

Team: England

Number of Six Nations Titles: 3

Finishing Position in 2009 Six Nations: 2nd

England vs. Wales Stats (All time):
England – W53, D12, L53
Biggest Winning Margin: England 62, Wales 5
Largest Losing Margin: England 0, Wales 25
England average points per game against Wales: 12.71
2009 Six Nations Result: Wales 23, England 15

Chances: England finished as runner’s up in last year’s tournament, but it was still considered to be a poor showing by Martin Johnson’s men. Positives to take were that they finished the tournament as the top try scorers, but their two defeats against Ireland and Wales meant that they finished level on points with France and Wales. There was a lot of criticism about the team selection and tactics employed by Martin Johnson, and ever the optimist, Johnson is confident he has the best squad that he could possibly put out. The Autumn internationals didn’t go too well for Johnson, as England looked flat and completely devoid of attacking ideas. The old powerhouse of England controlling everything wit the forwards is not there at the moment, and this is the time Johnson should be using to build a steady, consistent squad ahead of the World Cup.

Johnson has got some, but not all, important players back, and has decided to line up at Twickenham in an attacking frame of mind. Matthew Tait, one of the more dynamic England players get a start in the centre, while last year’s top try scorer Riki Flutey maintains his place in the side. By picking Nick Easter, Johnson appears to be seeking some attacking solutions. Danny Care takes the responsibility at scrum half. On paper, it looks like a strong team, but it has been the execution of the team’s ability which was glaringly letting the nation down in the Autumn. The players know what they need to do, the management have told them what they should be doing, but whether that all comes together is a different matter.

The fixtures will play a major factor in this year’s Six Nations, as England’s opening fixture against Wales, is only one of two home matches. The other one could be a massively crucial one against tournament favourites Ireland. Their toughest match, which could come down to being something of a decider, is their final match which is Paris against the French. With their main challengers for the title both playing what should be relatively easy games, England need to send out a big message that they mean business, by not only winning against Wales, but by playing with confidence and conviction. They could realistically have more of a chance than what the critics may suggest. While still missing most of their front row, which could be crucial against Wales’ top drawer front three, England should have enough to be optimistic.

Key Man: Nick Easter. At number eight, Easter has the ball skills to make a huge difference to whether England are attacking well, or get sucked into scrappy slow play. One of the better, and more dynamic ball carries in the England pack as well, a good game by Easter can make all the difference to the England squad. You know what you are going to get from the likes of Cueto, Wilkinson and Shaw, some needs to provide that cohesive link to make the fifteen a team.

Outright Six Nations Odds
5/1 at Bwin

England v Wales Match Odds
England to win: 4/6 at SportingBet
Draw: 20/1 at Paddy Power
Wales to win: 6/4 at SportingBet