sevilla

Sixteen teams are left in Europe’s elite club competition, with the draw set to take place this Friday (18th December). While all of these sides finished either first or second in a tough qualifying group, the Champions League is in danger of becoming predictable, with only a handful of teams likely to reach the final at the Bernabeu Stadium.

While Porto and Monaco contested the final in season 2003/4, it’s hard to imagine a Portuguese team facing a French side in Madrid next May. The strength of the Premier League in England and the Primera Liga in Spain mean that the first five in the outright betting are clubs based in these countries. FC Barcelona (7/2 Ladbrokes) are favourites with most bookmakers on the basis that they won the Champions League last season and have retained the nucleus of the squad that were victorious.

The other semi-finalists last season were Manchester United (15/2 bet365), Chelsea (4/1 Coral) and Arsenal (10/1 Coral), with the three English clubs all winning their qualifying groups this season and therefore set to meet a runner-up from one of the other groups. On a separate note, it’s hard to understand why Sir Alex Ferguson’s team are so much bigger in the betting than the Blues, especially as little separates them in the Premier League and the Red Devils are likely to improve as the season wears on.

The only other team trading at single-figure odds are Real Madrid (6/1 Victor Chandler), whose ‘riches’ brought Xabi Alonso, Ronaldo, Kaka and Karim Benzema to the club over the summer. It’s on this basis that they are added to this list of favourites, and these five English and Spanish teams provide an obstacle for any other team attempting to win the competition. Part of the problem is that all ties until the final will be two-legged affairs, so this eliminates the chance of any upsets like we might see during next year’s World Cup. A top team can afford to play one poor match and still scramble through to the next stage.

Inter (16/1 Coral) might be the outstanding team in Italy, having won Serie A for the past couple of seasons under Jose Mourinho, although the team were easily beaten by Manchester United last season and this illustrates that the domestic league in Italy and other nations are some way behind England and Spain. Indeed, Greek champions Olympiakos were made to work hard for a 1-0 victory at home to Arsenal in their last group game, despite Arsene Wenger fielding an entire reserve team.

The one outsider that could go further than the betting suggests are Sevilla at odds of 22/1. Bet365 might be underestimating a team that easily won their qualifying group and have almost become the forgotten third Spanish team in the competition. Sky Bet’s quote of 14/1 seems nearer to the mark about a team that have already beaten Real this season and sit just four points behind the moneybags team.

It is time to return to Champions League action for the big four in England, plus Rangers, who are Scotland’s sole representatives this year. All four English clubs managed a win in their first outings, but they were all performances which did just enough, rather than flatter. Such things can be easily excused so early in the season after new summer signings, but Match Day 2 often signals the settling down of the groups and getting into some kind of European swing of things.

Group E
Fiorentina v Liverpool
Debrecen v Lyon
Liverpool and Lyon were both 1-0 victors over Debrecen and Fiorentina respectively in their opening home matches. They both hit the road this week, with the Reds trundling off to Italy to play the famous Viola. They will be hoping to continue playing a merry tune, as their recent form has seen them scoring freely, largely thanks to Torres and Gerard. Lyon are going along nicely in the French league, sitting in second place and having only suffered one defeat all season. They, Fiorentina and Liverpool in their respective leagues are all kind of in similar standings, so there appears there won’t be too much to choose between these three. Hungarians Debrecen host their first ever Champions League fixture at home, and they couldn’t get much of a tougher task than facing Lyon. Will the sense of occasional overwhelm them, or will the electricity surrounding the event give them the much fabled extra man and help them secure a famous result?

Betting Tips:
Liverpool to draw: 5/2 at Stan-James
Lyon to win: 5/11 at Expekt

To Win Group E
Liverpool – 4/6 at Coral
Lyon – 2/1 at Ladbrokes
Fiorentina – 9/1 at PaddyPower
Debrecen – 150/1 at Bet365

Group F
Rubin Kazan v Inter Milan
Barcelona v Dynamo Kiev
The big opening match in Group F, well, of the Champions League itself really, fizzled out to a 0-0 draw as Jose Mourinho saw his Inter Milan team hold current holders Barcelona. Barcelona looked the better team on the night, and the battle of the two swapped strikers, E’to and Ibrahimovic wasn’t really settled and so we shall await the next fixture in Barcelona. Until then, the Italians face a trip to Russian title holders Rubin Kazan, who lost their first ever Champions League fixture 3-1 to Ukranians Dynamo Kiev. Rubin Kazan was a bit of unknown quantity coming into the tournament this year, but that result against their more established foes, will have put some minds at ease, but perhaps stirred up others about Kiev. Rubin Kazan now get the chance to give their home fans a taste of the Champions League for the first time ever, and what a spectacle they will have, when the colossal heritage of Inter Milan roll up on their doorstep. But truly, whatever the Russian and Ukranian champions can muster up, its not ever likely to threaten tp be enough to get out of the group stage. Inter and Barcelona should be far too strong over the course of the group.

Betting Tips:
Inter Milan to win 1-0: 6/1 at SkyBet
Barcelona to win 3-0: 13/2 at 888Sport

To Win Group F
Barcelona – 4/9 at Totesport
Inter Milan – 3/1 at Coral
Dynamo Kiev – 16/1 at ExtraBet
Rubin Kazan – 66/1 at ExtraBet

Group G
Unirea Urziceni v Stuttgart
Rangers v Sevilla
Sevilla are clearly the strongest team in this group, but Rangers have a great chance to get themselves out of the group stages this season. Stuttgart aren’t having their most wonderful season with only two wins from eight attempts in the Bundesliga, and Romanians Unirea Urziceni shouldn’t pose too many threats to anyone else in the group. There are some big nights ahead for Rangers, and they will need to make the most of home advantage. They will need to overturn some worrying trends against Spanish opposition in order to do so, as they have a terrible record against Spanish teams. Still, the fixtures they way they are for Rangers, could help them get a great boost. A draw wouldn’t even be too bad for the Scottish side and will give them a little heart as the underdogs of the group will be visiting Ibrox next. Unirea Urziceni, guided by the ever happy face of ex Chelsea favourite Dan Petrescu top the Hungarian Liga 1, and this truly is their big chance to grab a night of European glory. It’s a big home night for them too, and passions will be high.

Betting Tips:
Sevilla to win: 20/19 at Expekt
Unirea Urziceni to draw: 5/2 at Boylesports

To Win Group G
Sevilla – 8/15 at Ladbrokes
Stuttgart – 7/2 at ExtraBet
Rangers – 6/1 at Totesport or (6/4 to qualify at Victor Chandler)
Unirea Urziceni - 66/1 at ExtraBet

Group H
Arsenal v Olympiakos
AZ Alkmaar v Standard Liege
Arsenal aside, this is possibly the weakest group in the competition. After getting stunned by two goals in the first five minutes against Liege, Arsenal rallied to a 3-2 win. A loss there would have been considered something of a disaster for Arsene Wenger’s team, and they’ll be glad to get back to the Emirates where they have a formidable record. Olympiakos are a decent team, but not of the quality of the Gunners, and while stubborn, should see defeat. AZ Alkmaar aren’t the wonder boys of Dutch football at the moment, as they have lost three times already in their first eight games, and are facing mid table mediocrity. Standard Liege are three points off the top in the Belgian League, and will be somewhat spirited by the performance against the Arsenal, even if they couldn’t sustain it for 90 minutes. If their fixture against Alkmaar was at home, they would probably be worth backing for a win. However, whether they can replicate their early showing against Arsenal away from home is a different matter, but are still worth an outside punt.

Betting Tips:
Arsenal to win 1-0: 13/2 at Extrabet
Standard Liege Draw No Bet: 13/5 at William Hill

To Win Group H
Arsenal – 2/7 at Coral
Olympiakos – 7/1 at Ladbrokes
AZ Alkmaar – 16/1 at ExtraBet
Standard Liege – 66/1 at ExtraBet

Betting Advice. Clearly you are not going to get a lot of market action on the favourites such as Barcelona. Look for slight underdog teams which are home if you are looking for an upset, but opposed to going all out for a shock, consider the draw. Or, if you want to hedge your bets on an underdog, look for Draw No Bet, which will mean that you will break even in the event of a draw, and be laughing if they do win. Asian Handicaps should also offer a little more chance of return, or just double up, or run an accumulator with some of your selections. Winning a little is better than losing everything.