Stoke City

Stoke City v Manchester United Betting Tip & Odds: It is long odds for the home side here, a home side which has a pretty strong persona at home. So the bookies are giving much credence to Stoke being the first side to upset Manchester United this season. That’s perfectly understandable. The obvious stand out stat here for your betting is the goals scored this season. United have hit 18 more goals than Stoke, so it is really hard to picture the Potters out gunning the Red Devils. Just doesn’t look likely to happen. You have to presume that United are going to get on the score sheet and no reason not back Wayne Rooney First Goalscorer for 3/1 at BetFred (in conjunction with the promotion below).

Stoke City to win: 6/1 at BetFred
Draw: 10/3 at Totesport
Manchester United to win: 6/10 at William Hill

EPL Match Preview: It is Stoke City’s turn next to try and suppress the threat of Manchester United this season. This is actually first versus fifth in the Premier League, but already there is a big seven point gap between those two positions. United had fired off five wins out of five and do not look as if they are going to slow up their incredible goal scoring feats. The Red Devils are stronger than least season, and only their rivals Manchester City look capable of keeping tabs on them at the moment. Will it be a runaway season for Manchester United, or will their first dropped points come at the Britannia Stadium this weekend, where it is hard for teams to pick up wins. Are we going to see normal service resumed, or is there a surprise on the cards?

Stoke City Form: Well Stoke will look to the comfort of the Britannia Stadium in an attempt to get over the shock of last weekend’s defeat at Sunderland. Stoke went down 4-0 in a bit of surprise result, seeing as how the Black Cats had been struggling so much for goals this season. Stoke are generally a tough side to break down and don’t give much away. So seeing them outgunned so heavily was a surprise. However, it was on the back of a long trip to play Dynamo Kiev in the Europa league just a couple of days before, so maybe fatigue was an issue, even though Stoke boss Tony Pulis would not admit it. Stoke earned a decent 1-1 draw out in the Ukraine, and only a late goal deprived them of the win. The defeat against Sunderland remains their only defeat of the Premier League season, and they are sitting in fifth place ahead of the weekend fixtures. So a very positive start from Stoke, even though goals have been a bit of a struggle for them. They did boost their confidence a little bit in midweek with a 7-6 penalty shoot out win over a much changed Tottenham side in the Carling Cup, but Pulis will have been a bit frustrated that they again failed to convert chances in the match to win it in regular time. Stoke have only scored three league goals this season, one each from Shotton, Walters and Kenwyne Jones. Worryingly for Stoke, striker Kenwyne Jones picked up a hamstring problem against Spurs in the week, and could be a doubt for the visit of leaders Manchester United. But Pulis is sure that the penalty shoot out win helped his men avoid a big mental blow after the heavy Sunderland defeat, and they sound ready to get back on track. As poor as they were against Sunderland, they have to be as equally good against Manchester United. From their two home league matches this season, Stoke have won one and drawn one. Their win at the Britannia did come against Liverpool, and they held Chelsea there as well for a draw. So they were big results and shows how physically tough they can be. But just three goals from five matches does not suggest that they are going to outgun the free scoring Manchester United, so you have to think that any upset coming would be by a 1-0 score line for Stoke in this match. They have a 100% clean sheet record at home this season and 100% of their home matches have finished under 2.5 goals, so something to pay attention to for your Stoke v Manchester United betting. However, there could be a big red flag in backing Stoke. They have conceded 80% of their goals in the first half, and if United strike early, it is hard to see Stoke getting three points.

Manchester United Form: The Red Devils just keep marching on. A 3-0 win over Leeds in the Carling Cup midweek, thanks to a brace from Michael Owen, keeps Sir Alex Ferguson’s men firing on all fronts. With five wins from five in the Premier League, and 21 goals scored in those matches, it is hard to see anyone stopping United at the moment. Chelsea will have given other teams a bit of hope last Sunday, because although the London side lost 3-1, they at least created quite a few good chances which should have been converted, exposing the United defence for the first time this season. That was the first real test the United back line had had, and there were definitely holes there. However, their back line doesn’t get tested enough in matches, simply because teams have to try and cope with the attacking power of the Red Devils. Rio Ferdinand could be back in the starting line up after starting just two of the Premier League matches this season. Ferguson is keen to get some experience into his back line to head to Stoke with, knowing what a tough match it could be at the Britannia. United defender Chris Smalling remains a doubt for the Stoke game, so Ferdinand’s start would help steady the ship at the back. United have conceded just four goals this season, which is just about average for top half of the table teams. Wayne Rooney’s nine league goals this season (five at home and four away) sees the England striker in red hot form at the moment, with Hernandez, Young and Nani all weighing in with a couple each.  Javier Hernandez is fit and ready to go, after concerns that he may be missing from action after a rough tackle from Chelsea’s Ashley Cole. But the Mexican just got a bump, so nothing serious. United struggled on the road last season, but have picked up two wins from two games this time out. A narrow win over West Brom and then a 5-0 hammering of Bolton doesn’t suggest that there are going to be the same issues this season. United have power, versatility and threats from all over the park and go as strong favourites.

Head to Head: Well Stoke haven’t fared very well against Manchester United in the Premier League. United have won the last six meetings between the two and in last season’s corresponding fixture, the Red Devils ran out 2-1 winners. United have won on their last three trips to Stoke, and for the Potters, their last triumph over Manchester United was back in the 1993/94 season with a 2-1 home win. Out of 45 meetings between the two sides played at Stoke, the home side has won 18 matches, with United winning 12 and 15 draws having been played out. In this fixture, Stoke average 1.56 goals per match, while United average 1.13 goals per match away at Stoke. Overall though, United have won 36, Stoke 26 and 31 draws, so not too wide a gap in the stats.

Online Bookmaker Promotion: Well worth looking at BetFred’s Double Delight/Hattrick Heaven football betting promotion for this one. Back a player in the First Goalscorer market, and if they open the scoring plus hit a second goal at any other time in the match, BetFred will pay out your winning bet at double your original odds. If a hat trick is scored by a winning First Goalscorer selection, then the bookie will reward you with triple your original odds. Superb value, especially the way United have been scoring freely. With Rooney 3/1, Hernandez 4/1 and Young 5/1 there could be good value in taking advantage of this promotion for this match. Online bookmaker BetFred offer a £50 free bet to new customers registering an account with them.

Stoke City continue their Europa League adventures this week with a tough match away in the Ukraine to Dynamo Kiev. Stoke, under the steady hand of Tony Pulis have gotten off to a pretty solid start this season, coming through the qualifying to reach the Europa League Group stages and getting off to a four match unbeaten start to the new Premier League season. They will be extra buoyed up after beating Liverpool at the Britannia on the weekend, a great result which was their second win in a row. If you want to go and pick holes though, you can see that they have only scored three goals in their four matches, hardly prolific, but this is pretty much what Stoke are about. Getting the job done, and they do what they do so very well. We are following Stoke in the Europa League thanks to them reaching the FA Cup final last year, and this is Stoke City’s first ever match up against opponents from the Ukraine. It has been a long 37 years that Potters fans have been waiting to see their side play in Europe, and impressively they rattled off four wins out four during qualification. An important stat to look at is the one that reads Stoke not having conceded an away goal in the competition yet, and with just one conceded in the Premier League, they are doing something right at the back and are a tough side to break down. Stoke of course now have the service of Peter Crouch up front to look to, and he will be a big target for them. But naturally you have to look at Stoke and then at their opponents and see the gulf in inexperience that the English side will take into the match.

Dynamo Kiev are a very experienced European side and have a pretty decent home record against English sides. Dynamo Kiev go into the match with a W4 D4 L2 record against English sides at home, and in their last four matches they have racked up three wins on their home soil. So this is not going to be an easy trip for Stoke, but it may serve them well to get it out of the way first. You read more positives for the Ukrainian side in their European home record, as they have not lost at home in their last 14 matches in the UEFA Cup/Europa League fixtures. That is a streak stretching way back to the 1992/93 season. Dynamo Kiev are here after failing to get through the Champions League play offs though, where they lost to Rubin Kazan. That was the first defeat in ten home European matches for Dynamo Kiev. Pretty impressive stuff and they are favourites to win the match. Stoke really will have their work cut out for them, its never easy taking long midweek trips out to the Ukraine, so they are probably going to tough out one of their physical, backs to the wall performances.

Dynamo Kiev v Stoke Europa League Betting Odds
Dynamo Kiev to win: 10/11 at Stan James
Draw: 13/5 at Bet365
Stoke to win: 15/4 at Bet365

Big week of European football for the British teams this week. While Arsenal are off doing their thing in the play off round of the Champions League, we have a host of teams looking to make it into the group stage of the 2011/12 Europa League. Here we take a look at the British teams battling it out for a place in the next round.

Hearts v Spurs
The British derby is the definite highlight of the final qualification round to get into the main part of the Europa League. Tottenham of course will be coming from a cold start, after their opening Premier League fixture of the season was postponed due to the riots in London. So boss Harry Redknapp will have had more time to prepare his side for a tournament which he does not exactly look enthusiastic about taking part in. With the transfer issues over Luka Modric not settled, and questions over whether or not Spurs will be strong enough up front this year, they head north of the border to face Scottish side Hearts. Hearts, who many expected to go well in the Scottish Premier League this year, have not really got going yet. In their four matches in the league, they have won one, drawn one and lost two. Their first success came on the weekend when they beat Aberdeen 3-0, and so will be looking for a strong start in this first leg. They have to take advantage of being at home here, as the trip to White Hart Lane could be very difficult for their defence. If anything, you can see Hearts edging out a scrappy one goal win, or at least taking a draw back to London with. Not expecting too much fireworks, but Hearts will be up for this.
Betting Tip: Draw

Thun v Stoke City
Stoke City, who came under heavy criticism again for their style of play against Chelsea on the weekend, are on the brink of enjoying Europa League group stage football. The losing FA Cup finalists are up against Thun from Switzerland, who edged their way past Palermo in the previous round. As for Stoke, they played well against Hajduk Split and no reason why, after two legs, Stoke can’t close this deal. Yes, Stoke may play physical and direct football, but it works for them, and should be able to grind their way through. Grind out a draw away and win at home, that could be the Stoke way.
Betting Tip: Stoke

Fulham v Dnipro
Fulham are back for another Europa League run and this time they have Martin Jol at the helm. Fulham will welcome the home leg here first as they are just under way in the new Premier League season, as they welcome Dnipro from the Ukraine. That’s not a trip the London side will be too keen to make for the second leg, so Jol’s men should pull out the stops at Craven Cottage to make that long trip as comfortable as possible.
Betting Tip: Fulham

Nacional v Birmingham City
Relegated from the Premier League last season, Carling Cup winners Birmingham City head to Portugal for their play off match. City have one win and one defeat from their two opening domestic fixtures in the Championship and this could be a close call here. You can probably expect more of the football to come from Nacional, and of the English sides in the tournament, Birmingham look to be at the biggest risk in not making it to the group stage of the Europa League. Nacional have proven that they can score plenty in the qualification rounds already. Don’t quite see Birmingham having enough.
Betting Tip: Nacional

Celtic v Sion
Celtic, who have gotten off to a flyer in the Scottish Premier League with three wins out of three so far, face Swiss opposition in Sion. Celtic look plenty sharp enough to carry the threat in this game, and would expect them to put in a rousing home performance here. Like Celtic, Sion (Swiss Cup winners) entered the competition at this play off stage. Still fancy the Scots (Scottish Cup winners) though.
Betting Tip: Celtic

Maribor v Rangers
Rangers also face a team who have qualified straight into the play off stage of the Europa League. Rangers, now under Ally McCoist, are still looking to completely find their focus. They have won two and drawn one of their opening three Scottish Premier League matches. They face Maribor from Slovenia, who could string together some nice football. Getting on the scoreboard here for Rangers to get back to Ibrox could be key. Fancy a draw, likely not as easy as Celtic’s match. Maribor failed to get through qualification for the Champions League and ended up here.
Betting Tip: Draw

Shamrock Rovers v Partizan
Shamrock are here as losing third round qualifiers from the Champions League (the Europa League really does confuse!). Their opponents Partizan came through the same route here and the Serbians look favourites to progress. There needs to be a big night in Shamrock to give Rovers a leg up here.
Betting Tip: Partizan

The strong British presence in the Europa League has caused a clash in the play off stage as the teams vie for a place in the Group Stage. Tottenham Hotspur will square off against Scottish Premier League side Hearts for a place in the competition proper. After tasting the highs of Champions League football last season and impressing many, Tottenham have come back down to earth with a bump and now have to negotiate their way through qualifying for UEFA’s second tier tournament. Spurs boss Harry Redknapp is a little concerned that endeavours in the prolonged tournament is going to take away a lot from their challenge in the Premier League. So it will be interesting to see how Tottenham do this year. They surely won’t pass up the chance of silverware, as they will be one of the front runners to take the Europa League title this year.

Last season’s defeat FA Cup finalists Stoke City, making their foray into the Europa League, scored a great victory over Croatian Hajduk Split to move into the final play off round. Tony Pulis now takes his men on to face FC Thun from Switzerland for a place in the main stage of the competition. Also joining Stoke in the final play off round, is Fulham who safety negotiated their way past RNK Split this week. The Craven Cottage crew, now under the guidance of Martin Jol, will face a long trip to the Ukraine as they take on Dnipro. Birmingham City, who were relegated but made their way to the Europa League after winning the Carling Cup will take on Nacional from Portugal. There were worries that Birmingham’s dire financial situation would prevent them from playing in the Europa League, but they were granted licence to do so by UEFA. Glasgow Rangers will also be putting in an appearance in the Europa League Play Off draw, as they face Maribor from Slovenia, while Scottish Premier League rivals Celtic have a trip to Switzerland to battle it out with Sion. Ireland will be represented by Shamrock Rovers as they face Partizan.

So there are huge British football betting opportunities for you in the Europa League at the moment. Sadly we will have to lose at least one British side with the interesting Tottenham v Hearts clash on the cards. The Europa League is a long test of endurance over the season, but many are fancying Tottenham to do the business and they are the favourites out of the British entrants to lift the trophy this year. But the stiffest opposition in the way will come from the Spaniards Sevilla and Atletico Madrid. We will present the latest outright Europa League betting odds below, but remember that third placed teams from the Champions League group stage join the competition at a later stage as well.

Europa League Winner Odds
Sevilla: 12/1 at SkyBet
Atletico Madrid: 14/1 at Boylesports
Paris St Germain: 14/1 at Totesport
Tottenham: 14/1 at Blue Square
Roma: 16/1 at Paddy Power
Lazio: 20/1 at Stan James

Other British Europa League Winner Odds
Fulham: 40/1 at SkyBet
Celtic: 66/1 at Victor Chandler
Stoke City: 100/1 at Victor Chandler
Hearts: 150/1 at Totesport
Birmingham City: 150/1 at Paddy Power

Europa League Play Off Draw involving British Clubs
Hearts v Tottenham
Maribor v Rangers
Dnipro v Fulham
Sion v Celtic
Nacional v Birmingham
FC Thun v Stoke
Shamrock Rovers v Partizan
 

Saturday 15^th January

English Premier League

Stoke City v Bolton Wanderers

Stoke and Bolton have had to deal with some unfair criticism during their Premier League tenure, but both have had a good first half to the season and will look to continue it at the Britannia tomorrow.

Tony Pulis’ side has been battered from pillar to post ever since they were promoted to England’s top flight for their style of play. Critics have attempted to downplay their incredible achievements by branding them too physical and even setting out to injure other opponents. Such claims are downright ridiculous and it’s a credit to Pulis who has gone about his business in a quiet and dignified manner. His side are currently enjoying their third consecutive season in the Premier League and they’re comfortably set in mid-table as we approach the second half of the campaign. Occupying 11^th spot in the table, Stoke are six points off the relegation zone but also the same number of points from the final European spot. A key difference in their performance this season as opposed to the previous two, as that they have accrued more points on the road. Normally so strong at home, the Potters have won three games away already, just one fewer than their whole total of last season and one more than their debut year.

Owen Coyle has enjoyed the exact opposite reaction from pundits than his opponent tomorrow. Journalists and colleagues alike have praised his brand of football and lauded him for turning Bolton into a football playing side. For years Wanderers were criticised for being too physical, like Stoke, and for playing route one football, like Stoke. Sam Allardyce’s sides always had a touch of quality about them with the likes of Jay Jay Okocha and Youri Djorkaeff pulling the strings so the criticism was very unfair. It was slightly more understandable when Gary Megson had the manager’s job as his sides tended to be far more reserved and disciplined with little flexibility. Coyle has transformed that viewpoint however and his midfield is much more dynamic with creativity in abundance. Having played one more game than tomorrows opponents, Bolton find themselves three points better off, despite having won just one in their last six league games.

Stoke have completed the permanent transfer of Jermaine Pennant from Real Zaragoza as they look to finish in the top half of the table for the first time since their return. The winger had been in excellent form during his loan spell and linked up really well with the likes of Tuncay, Ricardo Fuller and Kenwyne Jones. More than that, however, he provided a real balance with Matty Etherington on the left wing. Bolton also have a number of player who have been a real threat going forward this season. Aside from Kevin Davies, Johan Elmander, Stuart Holden and Lee Chung-Yong have been a menace for Premier League defences. Coyle will have to do without Lee, however, as he is on International duty with South Korea in the Asian cup.

Bolton are currently experiencing their leanest run of the season with just four points from a possible 18. Their away form has also been very poor of late as they have lost their last four on the road scoring just one goal. Stoke know that they can bully teams at home with their physicality and their ability to hem teams in with their style of play. Whether that’s possible against Bolton, a strong team themselves, remains to be seen. However with the form Bolton are in on the road, and the fact Stoke brushed aside Everton last time out, I fancy the home side to edge this.

My Selection: Stoke City to beat Bolton

Best odds available: 6/5 available with Boylesports

English Championship

Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth

Nottingham Forest put their incredible home record on the line again with Portsmouth the latest side attempting to leave the City Ground with all three points.

Billy Davies has overseen a fantastic run of 31 Championship games unbeaten at home which is the envy of all of his rivals. This league is notoriously difficult to get out of and one of the most important ingredients for doing is a strong home record. Davies, who has already been promoted with Forest’s arch rivals Derby, knows that there are obviously other things needed, but will be especially pleased with how difficult it is to come to the City Ground these days. Six wins and six draws already this term, Forest are beginning to put a run together which would see them challenge the teams above them in the hunt for promotion. One defeat in nine has saw them rise to seventh in the table just a couple of points behind Watford with a game in hand.

Portsmouth have had a pretty normal season compared to last year and Steve Cotterill has used this to his advantage by steering Pompey clear of any real danger of relegation. Currently in 18^th position and five points clear of the final relegation spot, 2011 will hopefully, for Pompey supporters, see a fresh start for the club after all their recent problems, on and off the park. Working with such a small squad is never easy so Cotterill and his players have to be commended for their performance thus far. A key player for them has been Liam Lawrence as the experienced midfielder has brought some much needed quality and composure to the South coast club. Having already chipped in with seven league goals, his involvement between now and the end of the season is vital if the club are to consolidate and move forward. He was a doubt earlier on in the week but should be fit to take his place on Saturday.

The visitors have failed to win a game in their last five in all competitions. They were also soundly beaten last time out in the FA Cup away to Brighton. Forest, who were victorious in the cup, have Marcus Tudgay available again whilst captain Paul McKenna will also return. Pompey will have to do without Dave Kitson and Greg Halford.  Both will be missed as they provide both experience and quality.

With such a threadbare squad, lessened even more with injuries, Portsmouth have it all to do, especially as they have to travel to a ground where no visiting side has left with three points for over a year. Forest are hitting form just at the right time and they should account for tomorrow’s opponents as they continue their quest for promotion to the Premier League.

My Selections: Nottingham Forest to beat Portsmouth

Best odds available: 8/11 available with Betfred

Scottish Premier League

Aberdeen v St Mirren

Amazingly just one points separate’s Aberdeen and St Mirren as we approach February but that’s the case as the two meet at Pittodrie tomorrow.

Craig Brown has had an immediate effect since becoming Aberdeen boss at the end of 2010. Before that, Aberdeen were enduring a horrific season under former manager Mark McGhee which culminated in seven straight defeats. Brown has came in from Motherwell, with his assistant Archie Knox, and instilled some much needed organisation and discipline within the squad. He has sought to strengthen the squad with the introduction of David McNamee at full back and Nick Blackman upfront. Blackman was on loan at Motherwell for the first half of the season, he impressed with 10 goals so it was natural Brown would be interested in him again at his new employers. The former Scotland manager has used his lengthy list of contacts to further bolster his squad with Fulham midfielder Robert Milsom joining until the end of the season as well.

Danny Lennon’s first season managing at this level has been one of inconsistency and frustration. St Mirren continue to struggle at the wrong end of the table, where they are just four points off bottom, and fail to turn good performances into points. Lennon doesn’t have the resources available to him that Brown will at Aberdeen, but even still, he will be annoyed with the amount of missed chances taken by his misfiring strikers. All of this was highlighted last week in the Scottish Cup as they were held to a goalless draw at home to second division Peterhead.

Aberdeen, on the other hand, ran riot against lower league opposition in the cup hitting East Fife for six. The man who got a hat-trick that day, Chris McGuire, is bang in form and enjoying a new lease of life under his new manager. St Mirren can take solace from the fact that they won last time out on the road against Inverness. They are actually unbeaten in the last three on the road which should provide some encouragement.

If this match took place a month ago then I believe it would have a very different complexion on it. Aberdeen were struggling whilst St Mirren were putting a run of form together. However it’s not and with Brown having such a positive impact up North, I feel the value is definitely with the home side tomorrow.

My Selection: Aberdeen to beat St Mirren

Best odds available: 10/11 available with William Hill

It’s the start of the 2010/11 football season and what better way to spend Saturday afternoon than betting In-Play on the Premier League with bet365.

There are six matches kicking off at 3pm and bet365 are providing a wide range of In-Play markets on all of them. Arsenal are facing Blackpool and the Gunners are 1/7 to win the match. I have no doubt that a home win will occur, although perhaps I’ll hold out for the game to be level in the early stages and try to bank a better price.

Meanwhile, the same applies to Everton at 4/9 to beat Wolves, while it will be interesting to see how the odds change when Stoke City play Tottenham. An hour before kick-off, the Potters are available at 21/10 with bet365 to win at the Britannia Stadium, although once the teams are announced, punters might not fancy backing Spurs at a prohibitive 11/8.

The games get under way and Blackpool have a couple of chances, forcing the Arsenal price out to 1/6 with bet365. However, once Theo Walcott breaks the deadlock, the Gunners go 1/12 and a further two goals means that the main betting focus becomes the correct score.

Having backed the 6-0 scoreline at 25/1, I’m started to get excited at half-time, especially as the bookies have Over 5.5 goals at 5/6 (or you can back Under 5.5 at the same price). 5/0 is now available at odds of 3/1 and 6-0 is on offer at 15/4. Considering that the Tangerines are down to ten men, one can’t rule out the 7-0 scoreline at 13/2 or even the game finishing 8-0 at 12/1.

Meanwhile, Tottenham are 4/11 with bet365 to win at the Britannia Stadium after Gareth Bale’s two goals help Spurs to establish a 2-1 lead. Stoke City are on offer at 10/1 and the draw price is 3/1, which makes appeal considering that the Potters are going to try piling on the pressure in the second half. You can get odds of 5/2 that the game has no further goals, although a 3-1 win to Spurs is on offer at 10/3.

Everton had drifted out towards the even money mark against Wolves before Tim Cahill’s 43rd minute goal had put the home team in front and bet365’s half-time price about the Toffees is 1/7. The Wolves are 25/1 to repeat last Saturday’s victory over Stoke City and the draw is priced at 11/2.

There are no goals scored in the West Brom v Sunderland and West Ham v Bolton matches, although Carlton Cole has missed a penalty in the latter match and reports emerge that the Hammers have been a dominant force. Bet365 offer 6/4 that they win the match and it will be interesting to see what unfolds in the second half.

A Matthew Upson own goal against the run of play puts Bolton in front and the Wanderers are now 4/7 to keep hold of that lead and win at Upton Park for the third season running. Meanwhile, Arsenal are now 5-0 up against Blackpool and bet365 are making 6-0 and 7-0 joint-favourites at 5/2! With Cesc Fabregas and Robin Van Persie on the pitch, this could be painful for Ian Holloway’s team.

Last season, Stoke City only lost six games at the Britannia Stadium and Tottenham lost seven matches away from home, so perhaps it shouldn’t be much of a surprise if the Potters beat Spurs on Saturday. Given that Harry Redknapp is likely to be without Jermain Defoe and Luka Modric, one can’t help but feel that Ladbrokes offering 11/5 about the home team could be a price worth taking.

Kenwyne Jones is a player that could have left Sunderland for the Stadium of Light last season, although he’s recently signed at the Britannia Stadium instead and will be encouraged by some hopeless Tottenham defending in Switzerland on Tuesday night.

At the very least, we should take more than a passing interest in Ladbrokes’ 5/4 about Tony Pulis’ team on the Draw No Bet market where you’ll get your stake returned if the game is a draw.

Meanwhile, there’s no such thing as a betting certainty, although it’s hard to see how Wigan v Chelsea will be anything other than a resounding away win. The Blues were 6-0 victors on the opening weekend of the season, while their opponents were defeated 4-0 by Blackpool. The Blues beat Roberto Martinez’s team 8-0 at the end of last season and Paddy Power’s 2/7 will be a popular selection.

However, this could also be an opportunity to back Chelsea to lead at half-time and full-time at odds of 8/11 with bet365. While Carlo Ancelotti’s team might have lost 3-1 at the DW Stadium last season, Wigan look as though they are in all kinds of trouble and there’s also a case for backing Chelsea to ‘win to nil’ for this Saturday evening encounter.

On the correct score market, you can get odds of 66/1 with William Hill that Chelsea manage another 6-0 victory, while a 7-0 victory in favour of the Blues is 150/1 with Sporting Bet. While these might seem like ridiculous scorelines, the champions have goals in every department and Didier Drogba could be licking his lips at the thought of facing a shoddy Latics defence.

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Bolton have a fantastic recent record against West Ham and may be able to take advantage of a team who are still getting their act together. While it’s generally considered that Avram Grant is a decent manager, he is still looking to strengthen a squad that came perilously close to relegation last term and the Wanderers could be worth a bet at odds of 12/5 with Stan James.

Owen Coyle’s team won 2-1 at Upton Park last season and looked in good shape despite drawing 0-0 with Fulham on Saturday. The manager will be setting up his team to win and this could be the game where Johan Elmander breaks his duck for the season. The Swede is an eye-catching 9/1 with Blue Square to score the first goal.

Saturday 1^st May

English Premier League

Manchester City v Aston Villa

The first Saturday in May is upon us and with the title contenders playing on Sunday, attention turns to the tussle for 4^th placed as Man City come up against a Villa side who sit one place above them.

If you had told Man City supporters that with 2 games to go, they would be comfortably above Liverpool, or any of the big 4 for that matter, they would probably have imagined they themselves would occupy one of the top 4 positions. In any other season in recent times, that would have been the case, this year’s Premier League, however, is anything but normal. Despite sitting a point above Liverpool with a game in hand, City find themselves in 6^th position behind tomorrow’s opponents and current 4^th spot occupants, Tottenham. The fight for 4^th will go right to the death and should prove to be one of the tightest battles in Premier League history. The benefits of qualifying for 4^th cannot be underestimated. The money it brings to a club is overshadowed only by the status a club receives for playing in Europe’s elite club competition. So we can expect everything and anything between now and the end of the season, beginning tomorrow.

City comes into the match in relatively good form with 4 wins and a draw from their last 7 games. Their defeats, however, have both come at home against city rivals United and Everton. They were big disappointments for Roberto Mancini and his side as they never really done themselves justice in either match. Their most recent match was away to Arsenal last Saturday where they gained a credible 0-0 to boost their chances of getting that 4^th spot. They did, however, lose their inspirational keeper Shay Given with what looked like a very nasty shoulder injury. Given will now miss the rest of the season whilst the club have been given special dispensation to bring in an emergency loan in the shape of Martin Fulop from Sunderland. Overall City’s home form has been good throughout the season with 11 wins and 4 draws from 17 matches. They have averaged around 2 goals per game whilst they concede, on average, just over 1 goal a game, so games at the City of Manchester stadium have been entertaining under their new Italian regime.

Martin O’Neill has called for one last push from his men after a long, arduous season which has not only seen Villa mount a sustained challenge for 4^th, but also reach the League cup final and the semi finals of the FA Cup. It’s been a big effort from one of the smaller squads in the Premier League but O’Neill is a hard taskmaster and will demand nothing less than 100% from his players. Villa too come into this match in decent form with 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 league games. It’s a run of form which has included a derby win over Birmingham as well as 3 consecutive away victories against sides who have been fighting for their lives. Their away form has been pretty decent for much of the season with only 4 defeats on the road thus far. It’s not really a massive surprise when you consider the emphasis O’Neill places on hard work, a good solid defence and doing the basics correctly which explains why they are hard to beat, especially away from home.

Many will have differing opinions as to what will happen tomorrow in terms of the result, but I think most will agree that it’s basically do or die and whoever loses is all but out of the race for 4^th. Spurs will no doubt be hoping for a draw which, along with a win for them tomorrow, would all but guarantee them 4^th spot and the final Champions League place for next season. With that in mind I’m inclined for go for goals tomorrow afternoon. City only really play one way at home in these sort of games – to win. With a new keeper in place it will be interesting to see how he copes with a new defence infront of him and how his defenders react to playing infront of a new face and pair of hands. It will be a highly charged atmosphere and as it’s basically win or bust, I fancy the over 2 goals bet. If there is an early goal, especially for the home side, the game will really open up and there is more than enough pace and talent on show for both sides to suggest that the overs is a good solid option tomorrow.

My selection: Over 2.5 goals at a best priced 10/11 available with Sportingbet

English Premier League

Stoke City v Everton

Stoke will be looking to put their battering from Chelsea behind them when Everton travel to the Britannia on Saturday afternoon.

Tony Pulis will have been severely disappointed and probably a good bit angry after his side’s capitulation last Sunday at Stanford Bridge. Players went hiding as soon as the league leaders got into their stride which is arguably the worst thing you can do in a side such as Stoke. Reports of dressing room bust-ups at half time don’t really come as a surprise when you consider some of the characters which Pulis has brought to the club. They themselves will know that their performance on Sunday was nowhere near good enough and they will be desperate to rectify it tomorrow and gain some much needed pride. The return to the Britannia may be a welcome relief as they have a good record for a side in the lower half of the table with 7 wins and 5 draws from 18 home games. 3 of their 6 home defeats this season have, however, come in the last home matches which is probably due to the fact they have been safe from relegation for a long time and their performances levels will naturally drop.

Everton have done things in reverse to Stoke with a terrible start to the season followed by an excellent end. Davie Moyes has stated several times that they only have themselves to blame for not being closer to 4^th position after such a poor first half of the campaign. As you would expect from a side managed by the Scotsman, they have repaid his faith in them with a fantastic run of form which has seen them climb the table and claim 8^th spot, at the very least, for their 4^th successive top 8 finish. It’s a wonderful achievement for a club who religiously stick to buying and paying players what they can afford to as opposed to others who either have a billionaire as an owner or living well beyond their means. Their away form of late has been decent as they are unbeaten in their last 5 with 2 wins and a draw. The common theme running through these games however has been goals. Apart from a 0-0 draw with Wolves, Everton have managed at least 2 goals and as well as that, they have only kept 1 other clean sheet – the defeat of Manchester City.

Pulis will demand a reaction from his players, of that there is no doubt. It is the only reason why I’m steering clear of backing the away win as I have a great deal of respect for Stoke and how they go about their business – nothing surprises me with them. Instead I’m going for goals again as I believe both sides will be going all out to win this match and with very little to lose for either side, I expect a high scoring, end of season encounter.

My selection: Over 2.5 goals at a best priced EVENS with Paddypower

Liverpool have won just four of their ten away matches in the Premier League this season, scoring an average of just 1.1 goals per game. However, after twenty games of the season played, it appears that the bookmakers still think that the Reds are in a false position this season. Why else can you explain why they’re priced at a prohibitive 4/6 with bet365 and Victor Chandler to win at the Britannia Stadium this Saturday (and to be fair to these bookmakers, that’s the best price that’s currently available)?

One can only assume that the bookies are prepared to give Stoke City such massive odds on account of the fact that they’re an unfashionable team to back. It’s true that the Potters don’t play the prettiest football in the division, nor that their aims are any higher than staying in the division, although their recent 3-2 win over Fulham illustrated that they are a tough nut to crack in front of their own supporters. If you factor in the abysmal weather conditions that are seemingly making matches more of a leveller than you would expect on a hot day, then it appears that Sky Bet’s 11/2 about Tony Pulis’ team is the wrong price.

Now we’re not suggesting that Stoke are definitely going to win and it’s Liverpool who clearly possess the most quality player-for-player. However, this is an example where it might pay to go against the grain. Just say you picked out three 11/2 ‘value picks’ this weekend and only one of them came in. That would still return a handsome profit, providing you backed the trio of teams at level stakes.

There are other markets where you can support the outsider if you think that the price is too big but you’re not confident enough to back them to win the match. Many bookmakers now offer a ‘Draw No Bet’ market, where there are no prizes for guessing that stakes are refunded if the match finishes all square (last season’s game between Stoke and Liverpool was a goalless draw). Sporting Bet offer 10/3 about Stoke on this market. Alternatively, there is also the option of adding the draw option to the outsider, something that can be done with a ‘Double Chance’ market. William Hill currently have 13/10 available that the outcome of the match is either a home win or a draw and I would personally make it no bigger than even money.

You may be of the opinion that Liverpool will win this match after some good recent performances in the Premier League. However, if you are prepared to take a long-term view with your betting and identify teams that are ultimately priced too big based on stats and form, then you should return a profit overall. You may think that Everton are too big at 19/10 (Boylesports) to beat Manchester City after an impressive unbeaten run which lately saw them draw 2-2 at Arsenal. However, it might be worth avoiding the 18/1 (Coral) that Burnley manage a surprise win at Old Trafford!

More information about Sky Bet.

Last weekend’s Premier League results were highly unpredictable, with Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Everton all failing to oblige at odds-on. This is how the In-Play odds unfurled at bet365…

Fulham v Man United got under way, with the champions available at 4/5 with bet365 to win this match. They had been 8/13 two days before the match, although the inclusion of de Laet, Fletcher and Carrick in defence has seen them drift with bet365. Conversely, the Cottagers were 11/2 earlier in the week, although the team news has seen them shortened to 7/2 and they have a bright start to the game.

Over at Eastlands, Manchester City score early and bet365 now offer 2/9 that the home side win, with Sunderland 12/1 and yet another draw available at 9/2. There are rumours that this is Mark Hughes’ last match in charge of the team – has he sent them out to score lots of goals and throw caution to the wind?

Meanwhile, the traders at bet365 are far from impressed by Manchester United after ten minutes. They offer 5/6 that the Red Devils win, although Fulham are also drifting to 15/4, despite Zoltan Gera having an effort brilliantly saved. Back at Eastlands and City are now 2-0 up, with Sunderland out to 25/1. John Mensah almost immediately scores for the Black Cats and they are cut to 14/1.

Fulham have been knocking on the door and Danny Murphy scores in the 22nd minute! Roy Hodgson’s team are chopped to 20/21 and Manchester United are now 13/5. We have seen Sir Alex Ferguson’s team come back several times over the years and they are 4/7 with bet365 to score the next goal. The Cottagers are 21/10 to score next and they sound like they are having plenty of joy against this makeshift defence.

Over at Eastlands, Sunderland are back! 2-2 and City are back to 8/11 to win the match after bet365 had previously quoted them at 1/14. There might be a few nervous punters hoping the home side can go further ahead!

After 30 minutes, it’s goalless at Ewood Park and Villa Park. Aston Villa are trading at 8/13 with bet365, although it’s 13/2 Stoke that have a goal harshly disallowed. Over in Lancashire, Tottenham are dictating the play and they are a tempting 5/4 with bet365. Blackburn are 11/4, but continue to struggle for goals.

Back to Craven Cottage and Man United were 5/6 before the match kicked off, although it’s Fulham are now 5/6 with bet365 as we hit the 38th minute. Roy Hodgson’s team are controlling the match and are good value for their lead. Meanwhile, Aston Villa are drifting towards the even-money mark, with bet365 going 8/11. Stoke are 6/1 and are defending stoutly, although will that disallowed goal come back to haunt them.

A Peter Crouch goal just before the interval see the bet365 match odds revised to Blackburn 11/1 – draw 7/2 – Tottenham 3/10. After a quick breather at half-time, it’s time to settle down for the second half and Bobby Zamora scores within seconds to make it 2-0 to Fulham. The Cottagers are now 1/10, with Manchester United 8/1 to turn this around.

Finally, the deadlock is broken at Villa Park with John Carew scoring on the hour mark. Martin O’Neill’s team had drifted to 6/5 before finding their way through and this is a clear example of why it pays to bide your time with the In-Play betting.

Another exciting In-Play Saturday at bet365 and it’s clear that the movement of prices often accurately reflects the balance of play in each match.