Summer Leagues

The Summer League sides are getting ready for conflict.
I find that as they run alongside the winter leagues it gives them time to settle down and gives the punter a chance to evaluate form without losing any cash.

BRAZIL.
Biggest of the summer competition, at least by repute, must be BRAZILIERO.
Competition here must be a little intense. Especially at the lower end of the table were FOUR teams are relegated to the Paulista.
A noticeable occurrence over the past 6 seasons has been the rise in drawn games. 2005 saw just over one in five ending all square.(102). 
It has progressed from there to last seasons 31.1%.(118). Formerly the home stats were over the 50% mark but last season it dropped down to 47.1%.
Perhaps the level of ability is beginning to level out somewhat. Nevertheless, it’s something to keep in mind.
Goals whilst showing an average of 2.6 per game teams do seem to find it hard to score with any regularity. Best team total is 68 by Gremio Porto Alegre only 1.78 goals per game. Gremio P A and Corinthians managed only 41 goals each at home (1.07) and they were the best in the league.
Away team goals eke out at 1.0 per game. Individual team performance being best from Fluminense and Santos with 31 goals each.(0.81 per game).
Best HOME defensive side was 12th placed Ceara giving away just 12 goals in 19 games. They did rather spoil things by shipping 32 goals in away games.
Palmeiras 10th in the table were best AWAY defensive team giving away just 20 goals. Just to mix things up even further OVERALL BEST DEFENSIVE team was
Fluminense giving away just 36 goals to average 0.94 per game.
Add to these figures that in almost 10% of all games at least one team scored four or more goals.
All in all I would consider it imperitve to follow the form book but with caution.

ALLSVENSKAN. (SWEDEN)
Probably the most popular European Summer League.
Composed of 16 teams. Champions get a Champions League Qualification spot. 2nd and 3rd get Europa League Qualifications spots. Relegation is automatic for bottom two, whilst 14th placed team has a play-off against Superetten 3rd place side. Syrianska and Norrkoping were automatic promotion teams for the coming season.
Over the past few seasons honours have beenspread around without any teams really dominating as with some of the lower class leagues.
Form must be scrutinised very closely. Last seasons returns of 49.0% home wins was a vast improvement on all of the previous six seasons.
Twice the home teams returned just 39.0% wins. Real food for thought. The return for draws is also quite erratic. A low of 20.9% and a high of 30.8%.
The aways figure has been fairly constant are 28%+.
Last seasons champions were Malmo. A repeat of 2004. Since then they’ve hovered around between 5th and 10th.
Total goals last season were 601 over 240 matches. An average of 2.5 per game. Malmo were top of the scoring chart with 59 goals. 27 at home and 32 on opponents grounds. 
Worst defensive side was Atvidabergs shipping 51 goals with 32 of them away from home.
With an average of 2.5 goals per game, there’s always the likelihood of a few high scoring games. Last season there were 21 games were four goals were  scored by
at least one side.
57 games ended 1 – 0 or 2 – 0.

Ireland (Republic).
This league must pose quite a challenge when it comes to forecasting. Most leagues average around 47/48% on home wins. Not so here. The last few seasons
have seen figures ranging between 36% and 45%. The low 40′s should be the average expectation. Obviously someone must be gaining from the home teams low
showings and that appears to be the away sides. They regularly ring up over 30% successes. Something I have noticed over the past couple of years is the
unexpected away win. They seem to have a habit of happening when the home side looks "nailed-on".
Over the past few seasons Bohemians have been the most consistent side with Shamrock Rovers (Champions last season) and St. Patricks Athletic being not too far behind.
The League Champions get a Champions League qualifying spot. 2nd and 3rd get Europa League spots.
Bottom side is automatically relegated but 8th and 9th have a play-off to decide who meets the winner of the First Division 2nd and 3rd place play-off.
Which means it’s possible only one side will be promoted. Still with me?
Goal average per game was at a high last season at 2.6 per game. Sligo Rovers were top scorers with 61 goals. Their home win percentage of 61.1 was, along
with Shamrock Rovers, the best in the league.
Worst defensive sides were Bray Wanderers and Drogheda United who each gave away 74 goals.
Unfancied Sporting fingal were draw championa with 14 out of 36.(38.9%).
There has been some upheaval in the past couple of seasons due to cash problems. Mainly Cork City and Derry City who found themselves relegated. However Derry were
1st Division champions last season, so be prepared for a bold showing in the coming Premier season.

There are only a few Summer Leagues and each is very much "It’s own man". Braziliero for instance had only TWO games in which the away side was quoted at odd-on. One was successful and in the other game, a draw was the result. Similarly the American MLS also had only TWO games where the away side was at odds-on. These both went to the away side.

The IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE was the most prolific in all ways.
25 AWAY TEAMS @ ODDS-ON   17 WERE SUCCESSFUL  68%.  The other eight matches were split 4 homes 4 draws. 
The odds on offer for most of the sides were not unreasonable in many cases. In fact only 6 were offered at LESS THAN 1.65.
A point worth noting about these away teams. In the games that they won they conceded on only three occasions. Also, twelve of their winning games were UNDER 2.5 goals.

SWEDEN, ALLSVENKAN.
Here there were just 13 aways at odds-on, with eight successful.  Once again the available odds were at the higher end of the scale with just one at less than 1.65.
Goal scoring exploits here are interesting. Five of the eight away winner’s games produced OVER 2.5 goals. The other three were each 0 – 1.

SWISS SUPER LIGA.
Just ten games here to consider. These were split as, 5 aways, 4 homes and 1 draw.  There were two quotes below 1.65.
Four of five "aways" were OVER 2.5 goals.

NORWAY TIPPELIGAEN.
Only 8 matches here 5 aways, 2 draw and one home. One team was quoted at 1.65 the rest being 1.82 or better.
One "away"  ended 0 – 1, the other 4 were all over 2.5 goals.

FINLAND. VEIKKAUSLIGA.
The most prolific of the Scandinavian Leagues.
Out of 18 odds-on quotes there were ten successful. The other eight were split equally as homes and draws. Backing these eight games it was possible to make a minute profit. 
Two of these games ended 0 – 2, the remaining eight were all over 2.5 goals.
 
The "goals" per game figures do make interesting reading. For those people who back the overs and unders markets, there might well be something here for you to ponder over.

How to make use of these figures is down to the individual. If you are swayed towards the Exchanges then these figues might well enhance your TRADING prospects.
In fact, this season does for some reason, which I haven’t yet fathomed, appear to be completely out of "kilter". Some of the results have been hard to assess. More worrying though is the fact that, the odd team apart, nobody can string a few decent results together. The PREMIERSHIP, in particular is a prime case. If any of the top three hit a bad patch, who would be likely to take advantage? The next four in line are chasing the last Champions League place but all are as bad as each other, in that they just aren’t consistant.
For this reason I would think that the best chance of making some cash from the bookies,etc, is through TRADING. If anyone is unaware of this method of betting, I would advise them to go onto the Internet and make use of the vast resources that are available. The EXCHANGES are there, make use of them.

Tips for Betting on Summer Leagues – part 2
(Norway Tippeligaen, Norway Div 1, Finland Veikkausliiga, Finland Ykkonen, Iceland Premier)

Carrying on from last time.

NORWAY TIPPELIGAEN
The table-toppers win a Champions League Qualifying spot.
Second and third each play a Europa Cup qualifier.
Bottom two are relegated and the fourteenth placed has a relegation/promotion play off with the third /fourth/fifth placed in Div 1.
Pretty much to form, Rosenborg are in pole position. Still undefeated after twenty-one games.
Bottom placed Lyn (Oslo), look out of their depth and certain relegation fodder.The other two vital positions (14 and 15), could go to any of half a dozen sides.
Stromgodset’s home form is vastly superior to their disasterous away form. ( two points from eleven games).
Games tend to be pretty tight in general. 1 – 1 is a very popular score in this league.

NORWAY DIV  1
First and second gain automatic promotion with the next three teams having a playoff with the Tippeligaen fourteenth. Bottom four are relegated.
The top is pretty tight amongst four sides and three of the bottom four look "home and dried".
Alta, Ham Ham and Transdalen have good home form despite their middle of the table form. Notodden’s home form is quite good too, it’s their away form that’s put them down on fourteenth position.
Not a very inspiring league.

FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
There’s a Champions League Qualifier for the League winners. Second, third and fourth get a Europa Cup spot. Thirteenth side have a Relegation/promotion play-off with Ykkonen runner-up. Fourteenth placed side are relegated.
Sixth placed Tampere’s home form is outstanding. However, like many Scandinavian sides they don’t "travel".Their away form is abysmal.  VPS on the other hand, have lost more home games than anyone else.
The top of the table is quite tight. Only two points separate the top three sides.
The bottom three sides are " out on their own". However despite being bottom of the table RoPS need only to find a small improvement in their away form to move away from the  automatic relegation spot

FINLAND YKKONEN
The second tier also have a fourteen team line-up.
Top team gets an automatic promotion. Runner-up has a Play-off with higher division’s thirteenth placed team.
Bottom two are relegated.
The first two places are quite tight whilst third placed KPV are only in that position thanks to their away form. Another side with much better form on thier travels is Hameenlina. If AC Oulo  get their act together when playing away, they can quite easily overtake the current leaders.
Sides with home form that belies their positions are, KooTeePee, Klubi 04 and TPV.
Relegation looks like a fight between the current four bottom sides. Atlantis’ home form must make them clear favourite for bottom place.

ICELAND PREMIER
A small league of twelve teams. The season is well into the last furlong.
FH require five points from four games to become Champions and gain a Champions League qualifying spot. Second and third sides get a Europa League qualifying spot.
They will almost certainly be KR and Fylkir. IBV require three points to ensure Fjolnir and Trottur R drop down a level.
Games do tend to go to form. With away wins well below average.

In most leagues, at this point in the season I’d leave the top and bottom quarter of each table alone and use the remaing games for my bets. Always assuming, any game(s), looked value for money.

PICKING YOUR 1 – 2 – X
How do you decide your homes, aways and draws?
There must be as many ways as bees around an open jampot
Many years ago, about the time Robin Hood got his Bus-Pass, I avidly read a monthly publication called, The Sporting Investor. A5 size it slid nicely into the jacket pocket to be brought out whenever I had a moment to spare. It was basically a magazine of systems. Many of them were just "filling" for the odd piece of good advice. However there was a particular contributor who also wrote a couple of books with some weird and wonderful methods in them. Not really systems but methods of reducing a large number of selections to a size that could be handled easily. He went by the name of PROMATH.
He believed in covering as many outcomes as possible. Especially football matches.
A HOME win would have a DRAW as it’s alternative outcome. A DRAW would have a HOME as it’s alternative and an AWAY would have a DRAW as it’s alternative.
Taking this at face value three matches would have only eight possible outcomes instead of twenty-seven.
Other ideas don’t translate easily to todays games but allowing for a little poetic licence, never LAY a HOME side and rarely BACK an away team.
A team is more than likely to repeat it’s last result.  Now add this thought to the idea of ALTERNATIVES
and see how nearer you are with your match forecasting.
Next time I’ll look at some more strategies. 

Tips for Betting on Summer Leagues (Irish Premier League, USA MLS, Brasil, Russian Premier League, Sweden)

As our season has now begun with all it’s usual upsets, I thought now might be an opportune time to look at the Summer Leagues as they start to sort out the wheat from the chaff duting the second half of their seasons.
It’s almost certain there will be a few "certs" going to the wall between now and the last days of their seasons. The main thing is to try and recognise where the pitfalls and pot-holes may be waiting.

IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Only ten teams in this set-up. the first three qualify for European football next season. Winner gets a Champions League Qualifying place. The second and third, a Europa League place.
As it stands four teams have a realistic chance of getting one of these places.
Four of the remaing six teams can quite easily  find themselves fighting  a relegation battle. The big surprise being that St.Patricks find themselves amongst the four. In reality the only team with nothing to play for is Dundalk.
My best advice is, leave well alone. 

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
Sixteen teams in this league. The first three vie for two Champions League places and the third gets a qualifier place. The next two secure Europa League spots.The bottom two are relegated.
Realistically the bottom two places are "a four horse race".
Places six to twelve have just six points between them.
Still much to play for for the majority of thses sides.
More than obviously any of the bottom four playing away must seriously be considered as LAYS.    

BRAZILIERO
In typically baffling style there is not a championship, as such. The competition is run as a double Round-Robin. The team with most points is then declared the Winner.
Their equivalent of the Champions League is the Copa Libertadores. The top three sides qualify for this competition Group stage and the fourth placed gets a  qualifying match to play. Fifth to twelth place teams contest the equivalent of the Europa Cup.
The bottom four sides are relegated.
At this point of the season only two teams look outstanding. And for the wrong reasons. Sporting Recife and Fluminense look doomed already.
There are a couple of free-scoring sides but they tend to have an off-day when least expected. Especially when plating away against lesser sides.
Taking a realistic view, after checking thru’ match results, there are still many games to come which have an "iffy" look about them.  Do look at the Historic Form as well as the up-to-date results.     

USA MLS
As might be expected the Yanks run their league in "Conferences". Eastern and Western.
Qualification for the play-off is a bit hit and miss. Depending where you are on the map as well as in the league table.
The season is two thirds gone and three teams do look in a hopeless position.
teams from seventh position downwards, (Colorado), look to have just reputation to play for. When any two of the sides are set to play each other, the form book might be the place to find the winner.  

SWEDEN ALLSVENSKAN
One of the weaker European Leagues. Champions gets a Champions League Qualifying spot and second and third each get a Europa League Qualificaton spot.
Fourteenth placed side do a promotion/relegation battle with the third placed side in the Superettan. The bottom two are relegated.
The top five sides appear to be breaking away from the rest.Not much in it but the signs are there.
The bottom two look to have it to themselves unless there is a big turn around in the form book. Eleventh to fourteenth have a battle to sort themselves out. The sides currently sixth to tenth just have to go thru’ the motions, so to speak. When any of these play each other consideration to home wins must be given, especially when Trelleborg or Hacken are the hosts.  

SWEDEN SUPERETTAN
Sweden’s answer to our Championship.
A little over two thirds of the games have been played and Mjallby have what appears an unbeatable lead. They also like to score for fun.
The top two win automatic promotion and the third placed has a play-off situation.The bottom three drop down a level.The presently placed fourth fifth and sixth  could make a fight for that third place.
It’s quite tight at the bottom where any three from seven could go down, although Trollhattan and Vasalunds must be odds-on for two of those places.
Angelholm, Vasby and Norrkoping look capable of seeing off any other of the mid-table sides, when at home.
My view on these and a few other leagues, ( these will be covered next time), is to keep to middle of the table sides where the teams have little to play for.
It’s amazing how some struggling sides suddenly find form well above their punching weight when you least expect it.

Poor Old Bookie 1
SKYBET caught  cold last weekend (22/24th).
They offered 22/1 against Adebayor, Rooney, Drogba and Torres all scoring over the weekend.The quartet all obliged and cost Skybet a pricely sum.
It’s worth checking out these anytime scorer bets as a handful of players are bang in form.
This is one type of bet were recent form can pretty much be relied upon. 

Poor Old Bookie 2
Spread betting firm SPORTING INDEX have reported a loss of over £750,000 on high scoring matches in the last couple of weeks.

Whilst it’s very nice to read of such payouts, it makes me wary that things will go t*ts up
very soon. It’s known as Sod’s Law. Know what I mean? Sit back and watch, and results go the way you WOULD HAVE backed them. Then put your cash down and …………Sod’s Law takes over.