Swindon

Saturday 12th November 2011

English FA Cup

Luton v Northampton

The league sides enter the FA Cup as all the sides have that dream of reaching Wembley. League Two Northampton, struggling in their division, travel to Luton who will be hoping they can cause a shock and knock out their higher ranked opponents.

Luton have been close to regaining their league status a couple of times in the past few years but they have not quite managed to get over that elusive line. This season is proving a little more difficult as they currently find themselves outside of the play-off’s. It’s still very early, however, and the seven points they are behind the league leaders is not much of a margin when there’s more than half a season and 27 games still to be played. Their home record has been their biggest strength thus far as they have won six of their 10 games at Kenilworth Road, losing three. Their most recent match was a 2-1 loss at home against Fleetwood Town last weekend which would have been a tough one to take as the sides are so close together in the league table. Gary Brabin, in his first full season as Luton boss, will be excited at the prospect of testing his squad against a side from League Two and it will be a measure of how far they have got to go.

Gary Johnson has enjoyed a lot of success in the FA Cup at his previous clubs, most notably Yeovil Town in the early 2000′s. He’s not having as much enjoyment, however, with his new club Northampton as they find themselves closer to the relegation zone than the top of League Two. A lot was expected from Town this season with the new man in charge and the batch of players he brought in. Things havent panned out that way though and with five losses from their last six matches they are currently in 20th positon, just three points off the second relegation spot. Fans are rarely patient in football and with Johnson being so experienced having been around a few clubs, he knows that results need to improve or a change may have to be made. They have managed to pick up more points on the road in the league than at home so another away game may be what they need to kick start their season.

Brabin will be hoping that Amari Morgan-Smith can transfer his goals from the Conference into the cup competitions like last season. Morgan-Smith scored a hat-trick in last season’s FA Cup and has started this campaign even better with nine goals from 15 matches.

Northampton have found it difficult to keep a clean sheet all season. From their 17 matches they have kept the opposition out just three times whilst they have scored in all but five of their League Two matches. Johnson will be aware that they need to shore things up at the back to get more wins but will be confident in the knowledge that if they do manage to do that, they have goals in the team to push them up the table and improve their season.

Kenilworth Road is a hard place to go at the best of times as it’s a tight pitch and the fans create an excellent atmosphere. Northampton, unfortunately for them, are not visiting at the best of times with the run of form they are currently on. They have lost their last three and four of the last five on the road. I think Luton can take advantage of the magic of the FA Cup and add to Northampton’s woe’s.

My Selection: Luton to beat Northampton

Best odds available: 11/8 available with Ladbrokes

English FA Cup

Swindon Town v Huddersfield

A mouthwatering clash at the County Ground see’s Paolo Di Canio’s Swindon entertain Huddersfield as two sides in form meet for a place in the next round of the FA Cup.

Swindon have been on a rollercoaster ever since Di Canio took charge of the club during the summer. There has been public fall-outs with players, impressive performances and the odd heavy defeat. Sometimes up, sometimes down but it’s always been interesting under the former Celtic, Sheffield Wednesday and West Ham talisman is getting to grips with being his own boss. He’s not started too badly at all as Swindon are currently in the play-off zone, seven points off an automatic promotion spot. Their recent form is very good as they are on an unbeaten run of eight games winning six of those. It’s been their most consistent period of the season thus far so it may be that Di Canio is growing into the job and instilling the same belief that he had, into the players.

Huddersfield have been in superb form all season and still remain unbeaten in the league. Lee Clarke’s men equalled Nottingham Forest’s record for the longest unbeaten run in the football league last weekend when they drew 1-1 with Walsall. Ordinarily it would have went down as a disappointing result for the Terriers but to equal the record as they did is an incredible achievement for any club, let alone one playing in the fiercely competitive League One. Clarke will be hoping that this season, unlike the others, will end in promotion to the Championship and that his side’s hardwork will get their deserved reward in May. As it is, league business is put to the side and the club’s focus is on progressing in the biggest cup competition in the World.

It promsises to be a very attractive tie as Di Canio and Clarke were both very good footballers in their own right. They also had a grounding as players which has formed their footballing philosophy as Clarke played under Kevin Keegan whilst Di Canio was signed by Tommy Burns and Harry Redknapp. All three were managers who wanted to play the ball on the ground, attack with purpose and provide the fans with entertainment. Those traits have been adopted by tomorrow’s managers so the fans should be in for a treat.

Swindon have been strong at home with five wins from their eight matches and only the one defeat. They average well over two goals per game as well whilst they don’t concede many either so they will be confident of holding their despite playing against a side a division above them.

Huddersfield have always struggled to turn draws into wins in the league which has been the main reason for them remaining in League One. This season they have won nine and drawn eight of their 17 league games so it looks as though that may still be a problem. They are consistently hard to beat though and will know that despite their lofty league position will count for nothing when they run out tomorrow.

I can see a game of goals at the County Ground on Saturday with so many attacking options on display. I would normally side with Huddersfield but they will have to do without Jordan Rhodes who is on International duty with Scotland this weekend. As that is the case I will go for the overs and hope that the phisophies of Di Canio and Clarke come to the fore.

My Selection: Over 2.5 goals

Best odds available: 7/10 available with BlueSquare

Scottish League Division Two

Cowdenbeath v Stenhousemuir

A rare step into the lower leagues of Scotland for our third preview this week as top of the table Cowdenbeath take on third place Stenhousemuir.

Cowdenbeath have been in superb form all season so it’s no surprise to see them at the top of the table at this stage of the season. They have a 100% record at home in the league winning all five of their matches thus far and have been beaten just twice all season. The Fife club have former Scotland international Colin Cameron as their play manager and his influence cannot be underestimated as his side continue to impress. Cameron was a dynamic midfielder in his prime and having been born just a few miles outside Cowdenbeath, his career has come full circle.

Stenny have surprised many with their form this season which see’s them sitting just five points off of tomorrow’s opponents. Like Cowdenbeath they have been very strong at home with five wins and a draw from six games. Their away form is not has clever with just one win on their travels. They’ve lost just one more game than Cowdenbeath though so they too are a team bang in form and hard to get the better of.

Cameron, unlike many well know managers starting in the lower leagues, has refrained from bringing in some old pal’s to imrpove the club’s fortunes. Instead he has decided to go down the route of inexperience and put his faith in younger players. It is already paying off as the enthusiasm and energy that come’s with using younger players is readily outweighing the fact they have little experience of being in this position.

Stenny have a more experienced squad than their opponents on Saturday but are proving that it can pay to go with an older head or two. The challenge will come over the winter and early Spring as that is when the race for promotion really starts. Will the older heads of Stenny prevail, or will the younger legs of the Cowndenbeath squad just have that vital edge.

Stenhousemuir got the upperhand earlier in the campaign when they beat Cowdenbeath 3-1 back in August. That was earlier in the season and the form Cowdenbeath have been in you can bet it will be a lot closer this time around.

Home form counts for a lot in the this league and having already won five on the bounce in the league, scoring 13 and conceding five, the selection has to be the home side against a team who have won just once on the road this term.

My Selection: Cowdenbeath to beat Stenhousemuir

Best odds available: 5/6 available with Coral

Southampton were one of the best teams in League One last season, although a large points deduction for going into administration and a slow start prevented them from reaching the play-offs. This time around, the Saints have been installed as strong favourites to win the division and they may well oblige at odds of 5/2 that are available with Sporting Bet. The Hampshire club shouldn’t be short of goals thanks to the firepower of Rickie Lambert and Lee Barnard.

However, as we saw with Leeds United last season, the short-priced favourites don’t always oblige and it’s perfectly possible that Alan Pardew’s team could have a run in one of the cup competitions. Not to mention the fact that they are the big fish in the division with the exception of a certain sleeping giant in south Yorkshire!

Sheffield Wednesday supporters must have thought they had seen the back of the English third tier, although this well-supported club are once again enduring a downward spiral and there’s not much cash available to improve the side. Although Allan Irvine seems like a decent manager and Clinton Morrison was an eye-catching signing for the Owls, the odds of 6/1 (Victor Chandler) about them winning League One look a little skinny.

Indeed, the bookmakers have done their usual trick of making the relegated trio from the Championship too short in the outright betting for League One. Peterborough (12/1 Victor Chandler) might bounce back under Gary Johnson, but we can practically draw a line through Plymouth (18/1 Blue Square) who have appointed the hapless Peter Reid and will be lucky to scramble a place in the top six.

Instead, it may be preferable to consider a progressive team such as Huddersfield Town or Brighton and Hove Albion. The Terriers reached the play-offs under Lee Clark last term and the former Newcastle player will be looking for his team to improve their away form and grab themselves an automatic promotion spot. With Jordan Rhodes, Theo Robinson and Lee Novak leading the line, Ladbrokes’ 8/1 about them winning this division looks well worth taking.

Brighton were situated near the foot of League One for much of last season, although the appointment of Gus Poyet as manager proved to be the turning point. The Uruguayan rallied the Seagulls to the extent that they were beating some of the best teams in the division and Paddy Power offers excellent each-way value at odds of 14/1.

Swindon Town were a whisker away from being promoted last season, losing out in the play-off final to Millwall by a single goal. The Robins are 20/1 (Coral) on the outright market this time around, although the sale of striker Billy Paynter to Leeds arguably makes them a weaker prospect this time around.

Notts County are the most interesting of the newly-promoted teams that came up from League Two last season. While their financial position continues to be murky, they have the benefit of momentum gathered from last season and Lee Hughes should score regularly at this level. Victor Chandler offer 25/1 that the Magpies are crowned champions in May.

Saturday 8^th May

English League One

Millwall v Swindon Town

If Leeds win then this game is nothing more than a glorified friendly but both Millwall and Swindon will be going for the win in order to capitalise on any mistakes for the Yorkshire club.

Millwall looked odds on to go up automatically after winning 2-0 at Elland Road at the end of March only to slip out of 2^nd spot after losing 2 and drawing 1 of their last 4 matches in the league. As it stands now they can only hope Bristol Rovers do them a favour by getting something at Leeds but no matter what happens there, the Lions must take all 3 points against Swindon tomorrow afternoon. Kenny Jackett will probably rue the loss at Huddersfield as up until then, his side had been fantastic. They had only lost once in 2010 up until that defeat but ever since then, they have toiled and looked only half like the side they were beforehand.

Swindon have surpassed all expectations this season in what has been a surprise to many, if not all, in League 1. Danny Wilson has went about his business in a quiet manner for much of the season whilst his strikers, Billy Paynter and Charlie Austin have earned most of the plaudits with 44 goals between them. Swindon have also found pressure hard to cope with though, as they too had a slippery patch when it really mattered. They went on a run of 4 games without a win in April which saw them hand the advantage back over to Leeds in the hunt for automatic promotion. They must win tomorrow to give themselves any hope of finishing 2^nd, but like Millwall, they rely on a favour from elsewhere.

 It’s difficult to know how the game would go if news reached the New Den that Leeds got an early goal, but it’s pretty easy to guess the reaction if there was no news, or even better, if Rovers managed to get a lead. Both managers will send their teams out to get a win and a good start so the pressure reverts back to Elland Road.

Millwall have an excellent home record with just 1 defeat all season. It’s a fabulous record and one Jackett and his players can be very proud of. Swindon have lost just 5 games away from home all season however so it won’t be a case of turning up and expecting all 3 points. With everything that is at stake I expect a really open match as neither side has anything to lose, but they do have a lot to gain. They both require the 3 points to have any chance of going up so rather than predict a winner, I’m going to go for goals.

My selections: Over 2.5 goals at a best priced 10/11 available with Boylesports

                             Both teams to Score at a best priced 3/4 available with BlueSquare

Sunday 9^th May

Scottish Premier League

Hearts v Celtic

For the last two seasons, Celtic have been going for the title on the last day of the season, Rangers have long since wrapped that up this time around so there’s nothing other than pride to play for when they travel to Tynecastle on Sunday. 

Hearts welcomed home a former manager midway through this season in the shape of Jim Jefferies who took over the reins once again after Czaba Laszlo was sacked. He’s done relatively well by guiding them to a top 6 finish as well as notching two successive derby victories over arch rivals Hibernian. The close season will mean a rebuilding job with the club desperate to get rid of some of the high earners as Hearts reported a debt of over £30m earlier this week. Jefferies will look to youth to take Hearts forward and has blooded a plethora of teenagers already in his short time since rejoining.

Celtic also have a different manager to the one they started the season with. Neil Lennon took over from Tony Mowbray in March after Celtic slipped a massive 13 points behind Rangers. Lennon has steadied the ship and cut the gap to 8 points. He has won 7 successive league matches on the bounce including a midweek derby success at Parkhead. The one blot on his copybook will be the defeat to Ross County in the semi-finals of the Scottish Cup. It was a disgraceful performance and one that could count against him when the board decide who gets the job on a permanent basis.

Even though there is nothing much to play for, Sunday’s encounter will be a competitive affair – it always is when Celtic go through to Gorgie. Lennon will be demanding 8 wins from 8 whilst Jefferies will want to gain his first win over one of the Old Firm since returning to Edinburgh. With this in mind, both sides will be right up for it and you can expect a decent game with plenty of action. Celtic are in excellent form in the league and there looks to be far more unity and a lot more strength and determination about them under Lennon.

Robbie Keane plays his last game for Celtic before returning to Spurs in the summer so he too will want to go out on a high note. The Irishman has scored 15 goals since February which is an excellent return, especially when you consider how poor Celtic were under Mowbray.

I think Lennon will get his 8 from 8 but I expect plenty of goals and for it to be pretty tight throughout the match. I also believe Keane will get a goal as he bids goodbye to the Celtic family.

My selections: Celtic to beat Hearts at a best priced 8/11 available with Betfred

                             Over 2.5 goals available at a best priced 10/11 with William Hill

                             Robbie Keane to score anytime at a best priced EVENS with Extrabet

Saturday 5^th December

English Premier League

Manchester City v Chelsea

Money meets even more money as Mark Hughes’ City look to end their run of 7 successive league draws when they take on all conquering Chelsea who sit 5 points clear at the top of the table.

Man City have been something of an enigma all season long. They have flattered to deceive on occasions but at other times have been scintillating and shown glimpses of a side capable of matching the best. They’ve brushed Arsenal aside twice already this term, once in the league and once in the cup, whilst they have put in credible performances away to Liverpool and city rivals United but have come away with just one point from those two games. Their defeat in the derby game is, to date, their only loss in the league thus far which proves them as being one of the toughest nuts to crack in the EPL this season. They have, however, been let down with draws against the likes of Burnley, Fulham and Hull at home along with poor performance on the road at places such as Birmingham and Wigan. Even if they had won 3 of those games they would have been in a much healthier position than their current standing of 7^th, 3 points off 4^th placed Arsenal.

Chelsea have been very impressive all season. Not only have they been impressive, they’ve been extremely consistent for much of it as well. Apart from 2 slip up’s away to Wigan and Aston Villa, they have a flawless record with 12 wins from 14 matches. The ease of some of their wins has also caught the eye. Since losing 2-1 to Villa in October, they have won 6 in a row in the league, scored 17 and conceded 0. It is breathtaking form and it’s even more impressive when you take into account the fact that they have played Arsenal and Manchester United in that run of fixtures. These are two sides who lie 2^nd and 4^th in the league at this point in time so it’s safe to say that Carlo Ancelotti’s charges are sitting top because they are purely the best team in the country currently. Last week’s London derby at the Emirates was so comfortably for the away side it was scary. They were under very little pressure throughout the game but were quite willing to allow Arsenal to have the ball for much of the match, confident in their defensive ability to withstand the quick passing as they kept them 30 yards from goal. It was the footballing equivalent of keeping a midget at arm’s length if we’re being honest. Going forward they were powerful, clinical and precise. Didier Drogba and Nicholas Anelka have been excellent all season and they caused the Gunners all sorts of problems.

City proved earlier in the season that they can compete with the top four sides. They have not been embarrassed by any of Arsenal, Man United or Liverpool, far from it. The thing they have to do now is not only do they have to compete; they have to better them on a regular basis. They won’t get a much stiffer task than that of Chelsea in their current form. Emmanuel Adebayor will be their focal point in attack with Carlos Tevez almost certain to partner him after his goal in midweek. It will be interesting to see who operates on the left. Will Craig Bellamy, who turned in a man of the match performance in that game, be preferred to the now fit again Robinho? It’s difficult to say, Bellamy will certainly be more efficient in terms of the shape of the team and tracking back, but he doesn’t have the same ability as the little Brazilian.

Chelsea will line up very similar to that of last Sunday’s team with Drogba and Anelka supported by Joe Cole upfront. Their midfield trio of Lampard, Essien and the returning Michael Ballack is so strong it’s difficult to imagine City’s midfield dominating them.

People will tell you that the value pick is to go with City as they have lost just once all season and will be on a high after Wednesday’s win over Arsenal. However, there’s not many, if any, teams in World football at the moment who would get the better of Chelsea on form so I don’t see any other result other than an away win to make it 5 wins in a row for Chelsea at Eastlands.

My selection: Chelsea to beat Manchester City

Best odds available: 10/11 available with several bookmakers including Betfred

English League 1

Swindon Town v Leyton Orient

Just a slightly less affluent fixture as we delve back into reality football when Danny Wilson’s inform Swindon entertain poor travellers Leyton Orient at the County ground.

Swindon have struck 3 wins together in the league on the bounce after a run of poor form which as seen them climb to 10^th and just 3 points off of the last play-off spot in a tightly congested league. They have had excellent wins over Tranmere Rovers and Carlisle away as well as a very decent win over highflying Huddersfield at home last time out in the league. They have lost just once at home and just the 3 in total so it’s no surprise that they have the promotion in their sights. They are arguably strongest in the midfield where they have a plethora of good players at this level. Simon Ferry is on loan from Celtic and has been a stand-out for Wilson’s men this season alongside Jonathan Douglas who joined from Leeds in the summer. These two make the side tick in the middle of the park so it’s important Douglas will be fit to take his place in the side.

Orient are sitting relatively safe with a 5 point cushion over 21^st placed Brighton but know they will have to start to improve their away form to make sure of their survival later in the season. Their home form is good with 7 points from a possible 9 most recent but they have failed to pick up a point away from home in the league since the beginning of October. In total, they have lost 6 on the road this season with their two successes coming against Wycombe and Bristol Rovers as well as a point against Yeovil. They have lost, amongst others, at Leeds, Huddersfield and Norwich.

Although Swindon are not quite at the level of the three teams mentioned above, they are still good and I think they’ll be too classy in the midfield for an Orient side who haven’t even managed a goal in their last 3 away reverses.

My selection: Swindon to beat Leyton Orient

Best price available: 4/5 available with several bookmakers including Coral

Scottish Premier League

Celtic v Aberdeen

Third and final preview takes us North to Scotland as league leaders Celtic will be looking to stay top as they take on a buoyant Dons side who defeated the other team from Glasgow last weekend when they were victorious against Rangers at Pittodrie.

Celtic have been strong at home this season with 4 wins and 2 draws from their 6 matches. They have been inconsistent away from home but still remain hard to get the better of when they are infront of their home fans. In the last week they have beaten St Mirren 3-1 and won 2-0 in Europe against Tel Aviv, both at Parkhead. In both those games, the winning margin could have been much greater with missed chances aplenty. It is likely Tony Mowbray will line up with Scott McDonald and Giorgios Samaras in attack for the 3^rd successive match with big money signing Marc Antoine Fortune once again on the bench. It’s midfield where Celtic create most of their opportunities with Aiden McGeady in fine form of late and the midfield partnership of Landry N’Guemo and Marc Crosas beginning to show signs of blossoming.

Aberdeen have been mean on the road and have the 2^nd best away defensive record. Mark McGhee has attempted to build from the back and has worked to an extent. They will be on a high following their 1-0 win over Rangers last weekend but will have to do without their captain Mark Kerr for Saturday’s visit as he was sent off in that game. They have already kept two clean sheets against Rangers this season but that does not really tell the story. Rangers missed chance after chance in both games and let Aberdeen off the hook on so many occasions.

I don’t envisage this being too much of a test for Celtic other than their own poor finishing. Aberdeen worked so hard last week, especially when down to 10 men and they’ll find it hard to reach those same levels again so soon after, especially away from home. Celtic will create chances, there is nothing surer so providing their strikers are in form, and I think they’re due a big home win, I can see them winning starting minus a goal.

My selection: Celtic (-1) to beat Aberdeen

Best odds available: 11/10 available with Skybet

Good luck and happy punting