totesport

This year’s Masters Snooker gets off to an explosive start this coming weekend at its new home, the Alexandra Palace, when defending champion, China’s Ding Junhui, takes on former title-holder Ronnie O’ Sullivan in the opening round. ‘The Rocket’ beat Ding in the 2007 final but is increasingly looking a light of former days. O’Sullivan had a poor 2011 and hasn’t won a ranking tournament since the start of the 2009/10 season. The demons he faces on a daily basis away from the table will always make him a risky proposition in ante-post lists, but those willing to take a chance on the hugely talented Essex native at ‘Ally Pally’ can get 6/1 at Boylesports and Ladbrokes. Ding Junhui is 133/10 on betfair for a second win in this prestigious invitational tournament and can’t be ruled out. Asia’s most successful-ever player knocked out Mark Williams and Graeme Dott among others en route to his defeat of Marco Fu in the final at Wembley12 months ago but has frozen on the big stages since and is worth taking on in The Masters with Mark Selby.

It was a case of so near but yet so far last season for the 28-year-old from Leicester after he was beaten in the final of both the German Masters and the China Open. But he’s already gone some way towards making amends by winning this year’s Shanghai Masters and The Masters is his favourite tournament and one in which he’s already been successful twice. The bottom half of the draw appears the weaker and gives Selby a great chance of making it to the final again, with veteran John Higgins (a general 7/1) apparently the biggest obstacle lying in his path. But Selby has a decent record against the former world champion and ended 2012 in decent form whereas the Scot had some indifferent results towards the end of last year. Betfred and totesport offer 7/1 against current world number one Mark Selby winning at Alexandra Palace and that will do for me.

As I’ve said, the top half of the draw looks much tougher than the bottom half but the redoubtable Mark Williams will probably make a bold bid to emerge unscathed and can be backed at 12/1 with Ladbrokes and sportingbet. The Welshman still maintains he was robbed in the final of the Shangai Masters and will be out for revenge on Selby but a tricky quarter-final against world champion Neil Robertson (a general 10/1) awaits if the seedings pan out and he could than face Ding Junhui in the semis.

Plenty of usual suspects face the starter in the latest of what is fast becoming a pre-requisite handicap chase over 2m5f at every Cheltenham meeting. This one is sponsored by Victor Chandler and champion trainer Paul Nicholls once again provides the top weight in The Nightingale (a general 14/1) and a fancied runner further down the weights in the shape of Ghizao.

Ruby Walsh rides the latter so it’s fair to presume he is the stable selection. Bookmakers and punters certainly think so and the eight-year-old, who beat subsequent Arkle Chase winner Captain Chris twice as a novice, is only a general 6/1. He hasn’t run badly in either start this season but never really jumped with any fluency behind Quantitiveeasing over C&D last time and has ground to make up on Calgary Bay on that run.

Henrietta Knight‘s gelding usually runs well at Cheltenham but hasn’t won for a while. But that could all change in this New Year feature if he can lie up with the pace as he’ll be reeling in the front-runners up the hill. At 8/1 with most layers, Calgary Bay looks a cast-iron each-way bet and Duke Of Lucca should also be in the firing-line. Novices don’t have a great recent record in this contest but Philip Hobbs’ charge could be the exception that proves the rule. A very decent hurdler over this sort of distance, he spread-eagled an ordinary field at Wincanton after a couple of sighters and, though his jumping will be put under pressure by these experienced handicappers, it would be no surprise to see him go close at Boylesports and Stan James‘ 6/1.

Crescent Island (14/1 with Boylesports) and Hector’s Choice (20/1 with Victor Chandler) look closely matched on Newbury running behind Chance Du Roy and are capable of making their presence felt but it would need a giant leap of faith to support Cape Tribulation (21/1 on betfair) after he was pulled up early on at Haydock two weeks ago and the bottom six on the racecard are all carrying more than their allotted weight. The best of those may be Havingotascoobydo, who has been placed twice over shorter trips at Cheltenham recently. He can be backed at 7/1 with Skybet and William Hill, though his jumping can still be a little novicey at times. Hell’s Bay won a big prize last season but was pulled up when favourite on his reappearance at Ascot, hence his 14/1 quote from Betfred, Boylesports and totesport. Calgary Bay is taken to land the spoils with Duke Of Lucca to chase him home.

• Calgary Bay to win the Bet With Your Mobile at Victor Chandler Chase at a general 8/1
• Duke Of Lucca to win the Bet With Your Mobile at Victor Chandler Chase at 6/1 with Boylesports and Stan James

It’s no surprise that number one seeds the Czech Republic are hot favourites to win the season-opening Hopman Cup 2012 at the Burswood Dome in Perth. The Czechs have a very powerful line-up on paper for the mixed doubles tournament with Wimbledon women’s singles champion Petra Kvitova teamed up with big-serving Tomas Berdych. Berdych won the China Open in 2011 and is ranked seven in the world. The Czech Republic are no bigger than Evens with Skybet and Stan James to come out on top in Perth but neither Kvitova nor Berdych have a doubles pedigree, which may just be their Achilles Heel, and at the odds I’d rather have a punt on France.

The French are in the second group alongside hosts Australia (a general 10/1), Spain (a general 9/1) and China (35/1 with Stan James). The latter include French Open champion Li Na but she’s teamed up with Wu Di, who struggles to maintain a place among the top 500 in the men’s game and is unlikely to contribute many points to the Chinese cause. France, on the other hand, have women’s world number nine Marion Bartoli and the experienced Richard Gasquet. Both are very capable singles players but, just as importantly, have won several doubles titles between them so should thrive in the Hopman Cup format. Victor Chandler are out on a limb in offering 5/1 about the French winning the tournament overall and Skybet‘s 5/4 about them coming out on top in Group B can cover potential level stake losses should they come up short in the final stages.

Considering their short price overall, Betfred‘s 8/13 about the Czech Republic winning Group A will be popular though this is probably the most competitive section of the two. World number one Caroline Wozniacki should give Denmark an edge in the women’s singles and the Danes are a general 20/1 to succeed overall, while the USA team features the fast-improving Mardy Fish who reached the quarter-finals at Wimbledon and the last 16 at Flushing Meadow in 2011. Unfortunately, partner Bethanie Mattek-Sands may struggle to hold her end up and the Americans make little appeal at bet365 and totesport‘s 7/1.

There are eight runners due to face the starter in the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day but, despite the prospect of a decent each-way bet, most racegoers and punters will only be concentrating on the first two in the betting.

Kauto Star has won already won the Grade 1 mid-season championship race four times, so why is he available at 7/2 with Betfred and totesport? He did, after all, beat favourite Long Run (a general 5/4) by eight lengths in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month when Diamond Harry was back in fourth. Not a bad performance considering the gelding is now rising 12 and has been jumping fences since he was a four-year-old. Kauto Star has won almost £2million in prize money in his career and it’s a credit to how shrewdly he’s been managed over the years that he is still towards the top of the chasing tree. However, as he’s got older he’s also become more difficult to predict. There were a lot of calls for him to be retired after he showed little interest and was pulled up at Punchestown in May, just weeks after he was firmly put in his place by Long Run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Even his trainer has admitted that he is probably just one poor run from being allowed to spend the rest of his days in a field but a possible fifth win in this prestigious chase is just too much of a temptation to resist, especially after his Haydock heroics.

Nicky Henderson admitted that Long Run wasn’t quite ready at Haydock but he’ll be tuned to the minute in his attempt to win the King George for a second time and, only a six-year-old, has plenty of scope for further improvement. I’d expect him to confirm last season’s dominance over Kauto Star and repeat last year’s triumph but it will be fascinating to see how Master Minded (13/2 in several places) and Captain Chris (8/1 with Ladbrokes) fare tackling 3m for the first time. Both are brilliant two-milers and the former won a Grade 1 contest over 2m4f at Aintree in the spring. His accurate jumping may be good enough to keep him in contention  for a long way in this but there’s just a worry that with normal pace-setters Nacarat (66/1 with Paddy Power) and Golan Way (85/1 on betfair) likely to take each other on for the lead, the gallop may be suicidal and play to the strength of the proven stayers. That would suit Diamond Harry (a general 16/1) but not Somersby (a general 12/1) who finished behind Master Minded over 2m3f at Ascot last month and is another trying 3m for the first time.

• Long Run to win William Hill King George VI Chase at a general 5/4
• Diamond Harry to be placed at the general 16/1

Nicky Henderson‘s stable did this column a favour at Cheltenham last weekend and we’re going to nail our colours to the Upper Lambourn mast again this week in the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle at Ascot.

Gibb River never managed a win on the Flat but has really found his niche over hurdles and the five-year-old looks the value bet at a general 8/1 in Saturday’s feature. The gelding’s only comparative failure so far under NH Rules came in last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, where he found the going too quick. His record on this week’s good to soft ground is examplary, however, and includes wins at Huntingdon, Plumpton and Wincanton. He made an eye-catching reappearance when third in a Listed event at Sandown, his first run in a handicap, earlier this month and there’s every reason to believe he’ll overturn that form here with runner-up Via Galilei with Barry Geraghty taking over the reins. Gary Moore‘s charge, a general 14/1, is talented but is a hard horse to catch right as he has to held up for a late run. I’d much rather be on the side of the more straightforward Gibb River.

Henderson also runs Rajdhani Express, fifth in that Sandown race but undoubtedly better on soft ground. He’s available at a general 16/1 but all of the money this week has been for Prospect Wells. A decent sort on the level, he’s done well since arriving at Paul Nicholls‘ yard this summer, winning novice hurdles at Chepstow and Newbury and finishing second in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in between. There’s just a chance that the handicapper has let him in lightly here but it’s unusual for the trainer to go down the handicap route so soon with a novice that may have Cheltenham pretensions and, at the general 7/2, he’s too short in the market now though Nicholls has left last week’s International Hurdle third Brampour (11/1 with Betfred, Stan James and totesport) in the race to ensure the weights don’t rise.

The latter is a four-year-old, as is Haydock second Marsh Warbler (a general 16/1), Irish challenger Sailors Warn (a general 10/1) and the prolific Abergavenny, who can be backed at 11/1 with Coral and Skybet. But that age group has a terrible record in this race having failed to provide a winner since the turn of the century. More interesting are Desert Cry (14/1 in most places), who made giant strides last season and defied a big weight on his reappearance at Haydock, and Act Of Kalanisi.

Richard Newland‘s representative can sometimes be left down by his jumping but he’s a decent performer when everything falls into place and ran a lot better than the final result suggests when third in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. He has a decent chance at the weights in this and, at the general 16/1, makes plenty of each-way appeal behind likely winner Gibb River.

Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Great Endeavour certainly isn’t being allowed to rest on his laurels and the grey will line up for the Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup at Cheltenham this weekend just two weeks after another brave run in the Hennessy at Newbury.

The grey will no doubt appreciate the drop back in distance as 3m2f clearly taxed his stamina in the Hennessy but he’s gone up a further 6lb in the weights recently and may be worth opposing now at the general 8/1 as there is every chance that both Quantitiveeasing and Divers, second and third in the Paddy Power, can now turn the tables. The pair are old rivals having finished second and first respectively in a valuable novices’ handicap at The Festival in March. Just under three lengths separated them that day and Nicky Henderson’s charge is now 3lb better off. Available at 7/1 with Boylesports, Coral and William Hill, Quantitiveeasing may just be the more progressive and can finally get his head in front over C&D though Divers certainly shouldn’t be ignored at the general 8/1 as Ferdy Murphy‘s stable is beginning to show signs of a revival after a low-key start to the season.

Great Endeavour is undoubtedly David Pipe’s first choice but the Nicholshayne trainer has four entries in total including the consistent I’msingingtheblues (19/1 on betfair), Matuhi (33/1 0n betfair) and Salut Flo. The latter could be a real fly in the ointment as he looked a very smart prospect early last year before being sidelined by injury. Still only a six-year-old, he may well be capable of landing a nice prize off his current mark and Conor O’Farrell’s claim is worth a further 3lb this weekend. Salut Flo is 16/1 with most layers.

Woolcombe Folly (a general 25/1) looks to have too much weight and is better over 2m but stablemate Ghizao (a general 7/1) deserves another chance as he looked as though the outing would do him good when fourth to Medermit (12/1 with betfred, Boylesports and totesport) at Exeter. Paul Nicholls‘ seven-year-old is 4lb better off in this. Sunnyhillboy, one of three running in the colours of JP McManus, could also be a threat as he was third behind Poquelin and Great Endeavour in the race last year. AP McCoy‘s mount (15/2 with sportingbet) is now 12lb better off with the latter so has every chance of turning the tables as he had a pipe-opener over hurdles at Haydock last month. Sandown winner Roudoudou Ville is improving but this represents a big staep up in class for bet365 and Skybet‘s 14/1 chance, while Irish raiders Roberto Goldback and Finger Onthe Pulse (33/1 and 80/1 respectively on betfair) no longer look good enough at this level.

A sports editor at the BBC has described the 10 nominees for this year’s Sports Personality of the Year as ‘one of the strongest fields I have ever seen on my time on the show’.  That’s a bit of a tall boast, given the number of ‘minority’ sports represented and the fact that there are three golfers on the list. The lack of female presence has also been noted. I can accept that it’s been a quiet year for British football, with no European Championships or World Cup, which explains the rare phenomenon of no overpaid Premier League players on the list, but why no women? Rebecca Adlington and Keri-Anne Payne both won gold at the World Swimming Championships in Shanghai, England’s women footballers only lost out in the quarter-finals of this year’s World Cup on penalties and Beth Tweddle has become a true superstar in gymnastics. The nation’s leading sports writers decided none of the above were worthy of the chance to challenge the men, however, though I must add that no-one sought to ask my opinion. Maybe it’s something to do with the fact that women’s sport is 20 times less likely to appear on British TV than the men’s equivalent. Good to see equality is being followed fervently in that quarter then.

Rant over and back to the list, however, and the widely-held belief that sprint cyclist Mark Cavendish will finally get the recognition his efforts deserve. This year’s Tour de France green jersey winner was recently awarded the MBE and victory in the Sports Personality of the Year would cap a memorable 12 months for the 26-year-old Isle Of Man cyclist, who also won the Road World Championships in September. He is now a best Evens with Betfred, Ladbrokes and totesport to pick up the award.

At 5/2 with sportingbet, Open champion Darren Clarke is the shortest-priced of the three golfers ahead of US Open champion Rory McIlroy (9/1 with bet365 and Stan James) and world number one Luke Donald (40/1 with bet365), though the veteran Ulsterman is largely that short on sentiment. For consistency at a high level, Andy Murray surely deserves more recognition than the general 100/1 quote though one suspects he’ll never win any like this until he cracks one of the Grand Slams. Alistair Cook is 66/1 on betfair but probably deserves a nomination more than his England Test captain Andrew Strauss (100/1 with Betfred, Coral and William Hill) but doesn’t appear to have any chance of beating either Mo Farah or Dai Greene. Considering we are still nine months away from the London Olympics, it’s remarkable that two athletes have made the top 10. Farah, winner of the 5000m at the World Championships, could be a shoe-in in 12 months time but may still be worth opposing at the general 8/1 this year as many potential voters will still know little of him.

Barely have the tyres cooled and the pit lane garages been locked up for the winter than bookmakers are already looking ahead to the 2012 Formula One season with Sebastian Vettel a best 11/8 with Betfred, totesport and Victor Chandler to complete a hat-trick of World Drivers’ Championships after running away with the title this year.

The German had the crown in safe keeping with four races to spare in 2011, becoming become the youngest-ever driver to win back-to-back titles, and it appears punters think he will prove a cut above the opposition again next year. Vettel won 11 times during the season and the 24-year-old’s next target will be to surpass Michael Schumacher‘s record of 13 victories in a year. Vettel described his team Red Bull as ‘faultless’ after finishing second to team-mate Mark Webber in the final Grand Prix of the year in Brazil and they are 11/10 to win the Constructors’ Championship next year with Skybet ahead of McLaren (13/8 with William Hill) and Ferrari (6/1 with bet365 and Skybet).

Behind Vettel, McLaren driver Lewis Hamilton is a best 5/1 to win his second world title, with Ferrari‘s Fernando Alonso available at 6/1 with Skybet and Hamilton‘s team-mate Jenson Button 7/1 in several places. Hamilton‘s problem this season has been inability to steer clear of trouble. Some of his fellow drivers believe the Briton is much too aggressive on the track and lets his heart rule his head on occasion. His long-running feud with Felipe Massa certainly did neither driver any favours. Hamilton now has a few months to cool off and there are signs that McLaren are beginning to close the gap on Red Bull, but whether they’ll do that before the new season gets under way again in the spring is questionable given that F1 made a big effort to make the sport a more level playing field just 12 months ago and it’s unlikely there will be any more radical changes to rules over the winter.

It’s not difficult to work out why Mon Parrain has been heavily punted ahead of Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. With stablemate Poquelin (28/1 with Stan James) standing his ground in the Grade 3 handicap chase that’s worth over £85,000 to the winner, Ruby Walsh‘s mount only carries 10st8lb and will take some stopping if in the same form as when winning by 22 lengths at Sandown on his UK debut in March. He looked likely to follow up in the Topham Chase at Aintree the following month but just found course specialist Always Waining too strong in the closing stages. There’s more to come from Paul Nicholls‘ five-year-old but his age group haven’t a great record in this contest and his price (a best 7/2 with totesport, Betfred and William Hill) has contracted that much that we are forced to seek value elsewhere.

The obvious alternative is Wishfull Thinking, who never stopped improving last season. He was second in a Grade 2 over 2m4f at The Festival at Cheltenham in March before winning at Aintree and Punchestown and is 15/2 with sponsors Paddy Power. However, Loosen My Load‘s connections will fancy their charge to reverse track form with Philip Hobbs‘ charge on 11lb better terms and he’s twice the odds (a general 16/1), while the once well-regarded Calgary Bay is weighted to beat Wishfull Thinking on their run together over C&D earlier and he’s available at 40/1 with Stan James and Coral.

Great Endeavour (14/1 with Stan James) was a leading fancy for this race 12 months ago but could only finish sixth and races off a 5lb higher mark this year, while Irish raider Finger Onthe Pulse (a general 33/1) may have had his day. Lightly-weighted pair Aerial (25/1 with Stan James) and Quantitiveeasing still have scope for further improvement, however, and the latter is entitled to reverse C&D running in March with Divers (a general 14/1) on 7lb better terms. He could be a decent each-way bet with Betfred, sportingbet and totesport at 20/1 but I’m hoping for a big run from The Giant Bolster.

The six-year-old may hail from an unfashionable yard but he has first-class credentials for this having won over the C&D in January and contested many of last season’s top novice events. He may well have given the classy Time For Rupert something to think about had he not crashed out here a year ago and his reappearance over hurdles last month hinted at another profitable season. Boylesports offer 14/1 against David Bridgwater‘s gelding, which is simply too big if he gets into a rhythm, and he is the value against the market leaders.

Tiger Woods will return to action in the Emirates Australian Open this week ranked 58th in the world. It’s only a year since Tiger lost the number one spot to Lee Westwood but he’s trying to look forward rather than reflect on a traumatic period in his life which has seen his career blighted by controversy and injury. One of the most recent contentious aspects of Woods‘ fall from grace has been the breakdown of his friendship with former caddie Steve Williams, who admitted that remarks he made about the American last week “could be construed as racist”. Williams has since issued an apology but a reconciliation is unlikely in Sydney this week as the New Zealander caddies for local favourite Adam Scott, who is a general 8/1 to win the tournament. Woods is 11/1 with Betfred, totesport and Victor Chandler and has been promised that he won’t be paired with Scott and Williams in the first two rounds, though it will be interesting to see what happens if both are in contention on the final two days.

The Emirates Australian Open is big enough to stand on its own, however, without relying on a possible flare-up to spark interest. It’s being staged at the Lakes Club again this year and has attracted a host of big names from the US PGA Tour including Jason Day (11/1 with bet365 and William Hill), Hunter Mahan (16/1 with bwin and Paddy Power) and Dustin Johnson (a general 16/1). One who deserves a change of luck, however, is Matt Kuchar.  He’s tied for second place in The Memorial and filled the same spot in The Barclays Championship recently so could be a decent bet at the 20/1 with Boylesports, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power in Sydney.

This is a tournament in which the home team have proved almost irresistible in recent years, however. Lee Westwood is the only player from outside the southern hemisphere to have won the Australian Open since 1994 and South African Tim Clark the only non-Australian to have triumphed since 1998, so it may pay to concentrate again on those familiar with local conditions. Holder Geoff Ogilvy is 16/1 with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power, while Aaron Baddeley has won the tournament as both an amateur and a professional and is a general 20/1 this year.  I’ll put up the latter as a viable candidate again this year and he can also be backed at an attractive 15/8 with Skybet to achieve a top 10 finish.