Welsh National

Well, good things are usually worth the wait, and horse racing punters have to wait a little bit longer to see the running of the Welsh National, which now goes on Saturday, January 8th. The big freeze in the UK has caused its fair share of disruption to sport, and the Welsh National which is ran at Chepstow, was one of the big races to fall foul of the weather. The Welsh National goes over a distance of 3 miles and around 5 and a half furlongs, with 23 hurdles standing in the way of the runners. Dream Alliance was the big winner last year, and he is back for more, although not expected to put up much of a challenge, to be honest. This is all speculation at the moment, because the race is still in the hands of the weather gods, because some forecasts are expecting sun, others are predicting snow showers. So it’s a little hard to predict just what the conditions are going to be like, and the course has been covered ready, in the hope of softening up the turf just a little bit. Unfortunately the delay in the race, which should have been ran on December 27th, meant that it has had a big name casualty pull out. Bluesea Cracker will not be making an appearance after picking up an injury during exercises. Bluesea Cracker, who won the Irish Grand National was being pencilled in as one of the front runners for the Welsh National as well. There is still a huge field running on Saturday’s race, with 32 entries from which 20 will be making the starting tape. Here we will take a look over the front runners for the big race, and the main story in the race could be all about Tony McCoy again. The Welsh National is the one National that the Champion Jockey has not been able to land throughout his illustrious career.

Synchronised: 6/1 at William Hill

The favourite for the race, who only had one win during 2010. That was back in March at Uttoxeter, ridden by AP McCoy then. McCoy has not won this race, and his best finish has been a fourth place. Still, in with a good chance this time around, as Synchronised, winner of the Midlands Grand National, is showing well with the bookies. Wasn’t covered in glory running in sixth, nearly eight lengths back of Lush Life at Cheltenham at the beginning of December. Not really as highly rated as Dream Alliance or Silver By Nature, by because of the handicaps and circumstances, will still probably start the race as favourite. Will the Sports Personality of the Year, AP McCoy be able to fill another void in his career, by winning the Welsh National? Decent chance really, but it is not going to be plain sailing here, as it should be a close and challenging field.

Maktu: 8/1 at Bet365

Interesting that Maktu is placing so high at the moment, and could drift out further come the starting tape. His odds are being tracked simply because of his form through 2010, in which he never finished a race outside of the top three. With two wins and two second places in amongst all that, has shown a lot. Really digs in on the softer goings, but with Cheltenham likely to be a bit harder, may struggle to find his feet. Has the pace to challenge though, and has had some huge wins. That’s why the Antepost price is where it is at right now, and is excellent value. It all comes down to experience at the top level, does Maktu really have enough?

Dance Island: 12/1 at Coral

Just like Maktu, Dance Island was beaten by King Fontaine at Haydock in November, Dance Island more comprehensively so. Been a busy year, and is usually in the finishing places, winning in Warwick over Flight Leader for a good victory back in February. Reliable, but this could be just a challenge too much to take in terms of winning. Could run a good race, but in a pack which is hard to split and Dance Island just does not quite stand out enough.

Watamu Bay: 12/1 at Boylesports

Another good horse on the soft tracks. Watamu Bay has had an impressive year, and is ranking well. An excellent outside chance of taking all the glory at Chepstow if the conditions fall just right. May shorten a little, and has every chance of being in the mix. Is a novice runner though and is high in the weights, but that perhaps just is a sign of his potential threat. Could be explosive, could be a disappointing failure. Tempting punt though.

Summery Justice: 14/1 at SportingBet

Didn’t have so many outings as some of the other contenders in 2010, and one of the three runs ended with Summery Justice pulling up at Uttoxeter. However, on either side of that, there were two wins for the horse, trained by Venetia Williams. Another one which could be in the mix, and just on the fringe of the rankings of the horses higher up the pecking order here. Probably not enough experience amongst the higher classes to win, but an exciting outsider.

Dream Alliance: 14/1 at Stan James

His was the dream win last year, from allotment horse to National winner. Unlikely to repeat it, but could hit the top three if he gets round. Dream Alliance pulled up on all three of his outings during 2010, all following his victory at Chepstow in December 09. That makes for a risky bet over this enduring race. His moment probably has come and gone.

Silver By Nature: 16/1 at Victor Chandler

Carrying a lot of weight in the handicap thanks to a second place finish last year, and a huge win at the Blue Square Gold Cup. He is now carrying an extra 20lb, and that may just be putting him out of the running to hit the finish line first. Still, makes for a very interesting each way outside bet, but has not been helped by lack of proper training due to the icy conditions. Therefore may not find the going to suit him at Chepstow on Saturday, holding him up. Has all the experience of class one handicap chases behind him, and that is why he is still drawing a lot of interest. Probably too much on his plate though, and conceding just too much to the other main contenders.

Exmoor Ranger: 25/1 at Victor Chandler

Not showing particularly well at the bookies, but well worth a look. Ranks highly and has good experience in class one handicap chases during 2010. Hasn’t hit higher than third, but in the National where anything could happen, could be the proverbial dark horse in the pack.

Welsh National Handicap Chase
Chepstow
Monday, December 28th
2.10 pm

The Welsh National highlights that it is a great time of the year to enjoy some wonderful horse racing action. After the thrill of the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day, we can head over to Chepstow for a spot of Welsh National action, which should turn out to a be a good contest. Course officials are confident that the meeting on Monday, December 28th will go ahead. There will be an early morning inspection on the course, because there was a large downpour of rain, followed by some sub-zero temperatures, but Monday should bring a nice day over the Welsh town.

For the race, there is a coming together of two of the horse racing scene’s most prominent names. Jockey Tony McCoy will be the on the back of The Tother One, who is trained by one of the most respected trainers in the UK, Paul Nicholls. Although it has not happened too often, when they have come together to form a partnership, they have a 34% success rate, which is a pretty good stat to draw some confident bets. While this team will be popular with the punters, the horse himself has not had much rest, with a run out at Cheltenham earlier in the month.

Starting as favourite, The Tother One came in second after making a mistake, four fences out. This will have shortened the ante-post odds on Le Beau Bai, who is the race favourite. Le Beau Bai, trained by Richard Lee, won his last 3 mile handicap chase at Chepstow earlier in December, and that will put him in good steed. The Welsh National, which is run over 3 miles, 5 and a half furlongs, has one outstanding candidate for an each way bet. Halcon Genelardais has won the race before, finish second, and then third last year. He is a stayer and a general all round performer, and seems to like the run at Chepstow. He will need to improve a little over his last outing, when he finished fourth behind Kauto Star in small field of seven. Still, as an each way bet in a 20 strong field, it coul be a nice little side bet in addition to picking a winner.

Another good shot to watch out for, would be Operation Houdini, simply because of being at a lighter weight, and a slightly younger age than some of the other main challengers. Old Benny, for the same reasons can pose a threat, and this is one field where potential danger can spring from any area of the field. One name that may attract some interesting bets, will be Mon Mome (40/1 at Ladbrokes), who came from absolutely nowhere as a 100/1 outsider to win the Grand National at Aintree in April. Finished third in the last outing in November, which was a 3 mile novice hurdle at Cheltenham. But a lot of attention will be on “The Tother One” to see if the hot partnership of Tony McCoy and Paul Nicholls can pull off another win.

Welsh National (Going Soft, to Heavy)
Le Beau Bai – 5/1 at William Hill
The Tother One – 6/1 at Bet365
Halcon Genelardais – 10/1 at BetFred
Silver By Nature – 11/1 at Paddy Power
Operation Houdini – 12/1 at 12/1 Stan James
Flint off – 12/1 at Blue Square
Gone to Lunch – 14/1 at BetFred
Old Benny – 14/1 at 888 Sport

Kempton’s King George VI Chase is undoubtedly the jewel in the crown of Britain’s busy Christmas racing schedule but for national hunt enthusiasts the Coral Welsh National, scheduled for the day after the Boxing Day showpiece, runs it a very close second.

This year’s five-day entry has attracted three previous winners in L’Aventure, Halcon Genelardais and Miko De Beauchene who, of course, just got the better of Halcon Genelardais in a tremendous finish to the 3m6f contest 12 months ago. Alan King, responsible for the latter, also saddles ante-post favourite Nenuphar Collonges this year and appears particularly keen on the chances of Robert Thornton‘s mount, "He is often off the bridle in his races but it seems the further he goes the better.", he told sportinglife.com, "This is obviously the furthest he’s been but we think he is crying out for a race like this." Nenuphar Collonges can be backed at 11-2 in several places while stablemate Halcon Genelardais is a general 9-1 being rated 8lbs higher that last year. Miko De Beauchene is a 10-1 chance with most high street bookmakers but Robert And Sue Alner‘s stayer can be backed at 19-1 on Betfair. Mon Mome, third in 2006, is a general 6-1 and represents the in-form Venetia Williams team. He comes here off the back of a gutsy win at Cheltenham and his 4lbs penalty is largely offset by Aidan Coleman‘s allowance so the eight-year-old, who is proven in the mud, is a must for the short-list but I think the value lies a little further down the weights.

Beat The Boys, as a second-season chaser endowed with plenty of stamina, looks to have the ideal credentials for this race and trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a record second to none when it comes to training the winner of the Welsh National. Beat The Boys, 16-1 with several firms including Bet365 and Skybet but available at 20-1 on Betfair, ran a cracking race behind Joe Lively and Halcon Genelardais at Cheltenham on his reappearance, despite being 6lbs ‘wrong’ in the weights. Sure to strip fitter for that and only 1lb out of the handicap proper this time, the grey gets the vote in what is sure to be another thrilling spectacle.