World Cup

Following their World Cup exploits, there will be high hopes in the Principality that Wales can win a third Six Nations title since the competition was expanded to its current number in 2000. The Welsh were desperately unlucky to go out at the semi-final stage against France in New Zealand, having been forced to play three-quarters of the match following the controversial sending-off of influential skipper Sam Warburton. Wales, however, will be much-changed when they get this year’s Six Nations campaign under way. Shane Williams has retired and it appears coach Warren Gatland has called time on the international career of Stephen Jones. Jamie Roberts‘ injury may have opened the door again for Gavin Henson but there’s a big question mark over whether the 30-year-old will ever rediscover his best form and Wales will also be without Alun Wyn Jones, Luke Charteris, Josh Turnbull and Rob McCosker. They must be worth opposing at the general 11/4.

Italy, a general 200/1, will need a miracle to avoid the wooden spoon again though Scotland are likely to be down at the foot of the table again with them. They didn’t perform badly in the World Cup but couldn’t progress beyond the group stages and Andy Robinson still hasn’t solved the problem of getting the ball over the white-wash. A Calcutta Cup opener against England will get them fired up and Mike Blair and Max Evans look class acts behind the scrum but you could hardly entertain a bet on the Scots at the general 25/1.

There are also a lot of question marks still hanging over England. A new management team hasn’t had time to make its mark yet and their calamitous World Cup campaign is a lingering shadow on the RFU. Stuart Lancaster has been tasked with the job of giving an immediate boost to English rugby and the internal suspension of Danny Care suggests Lancaster will stand for no nonsense. There’s a good chance that England will be more expansive under their interim coach than Martin Johnson but it’s going to take time for their revamped squad to gel and they no longer have the boot of Johnny Wilkinson to fall back on if things get tough. At only a best 7/2 with totesport, Betfred and William Hill, I’ll be looking elsewhere for the Six Nations champions.

France, of course, must go on the short-list. They did, after all, make the World Cup final again last year despite looking as though the players were all on a different wavelength to coach Marc Lievremont. Phillipe Saint-Andre has now taken over the reins so there should be better communication but you can never be certain what you are going to get with the French, though the argument can be put forward that they’ve probably taken a step forward over the last 12 months while most others have gone backwards. If Thierry Dusautoir can maintain discipline on the field, the French may well triumph and can be backed in several places at 7/4 – but, as always, that’s a big ‘if’.

That leaves Ireland, and Declan Kidney‘s team look the value at the general 6/1. The Irish will miss the experience and invention of Brian O’Driscoll in the Six Nations but Keith Earls and Tommy Bowe are both viable alternatives at outside centre and they’ll be looking for immediate revenge on Wales for their World Cup quarter-final defeat in their Lansdowne Road opener. Should the Irish get off to a winning start, you could easily envisage confidence snow-balling and theirs is arguably the most experienced and settled squad in the competition. The men in green could go all the way.

Let’s start this article with a few stats:

•    Spain have won their last three World Cup matches by a 1-0 scoreline
•    David Villa has scored the opening goal on two of those occasions, although the match against Germany saw him playing as the (less effective) front man
•    Spain have been level at half-time in these three matches before going to find a winner in the second half

Therefore, if you believe that we will see the Sunday’s World Cup final follow a similar pattern, then there are some corresponding bets that might catch the eye:

•    Spain to win in ninety minutes is 11/10 with bet365
•    Spain to be level at half-time and ahead at full-time is 4/1 with Paddy Power
•    Spain to win by a 1-0 scoreline is 11/2 with Ladbrokes
•    Spain to keep a clean sheet is 5/4 with Sporting Bet
•    Spain to ‘win to nil’ is available at odds of 21/10 with Paddy Power

While a Netherlands goal will mean the latter three bets are losing selections, we  should also bear in mind that the Dutch go into this match as outsiders and that’s because the bookmakers are not expecting them to have a lot of possession at Soccer City. Therefore, their first port of call will be to ensure they keep things tight against the European champions before looking for ways to attack.

Yes, Holland beat Brazil and some might fancy backing them at 11/4 (bet365) to beat the other team that headed the pre-tournament outright market. The Dutch have certainly had Lady Luck on their side, playing a fluid formation with Wesley Sneijder going forward! However, are the Oranje really any better than a vibrant Germany team that were clearly second best against Spain during the semi-final on Wednesday night?

The big concern for Bert van Marwijk is that his team have not kept a clean sheet in the past four matches, with the defence making sloppy mistakes to allow Cameroon, Brazil, Slovakia and Uruguay to score. Therefore, their customary defensive approach might end in tears and the manager might be looking for ways to get the supply line through to Robin Van Persie, who has been isolated for much of the campaign. The Arsenal striker is 15/2 (Blue Square) to open the scoring on the biggest stage imaginable and Spain do have a chink in the defence.

Joan Capdevila is the only player in the likely starting XI that doesn’t play for Barcelona or Real Madrid and the left-back could be targeted by the tricky Arjen Robben (10/1 Blue Square), who is the class act in the team, despite Sneijder (9/1 Paddy Power) scoring five goals during this tournament (it was actually four but FIFA have gifted him a 5th).

Therefore, can the Dutch manage a 1-0 win (15/2 bet365) of their own and claim their first ever World Cup? It’s unlikely, although their defensive tactics means that Under 2 Goals (10/11 bet365) can be backed with a fair degree of confidence considering that you will get a refund if there are exactly two goals in normal time.

It’s the final weekend of the World Cup, with Germany and Uruguay wondering what might have been as they take to the field in Port Elizabeth. However, while Spain v Holland twenty-four hours later is likely to be similar to a game of chess in terms of tempo and tactics, we might see something completely different on Saturday night.

The last five World Cup finals have yielded two goals or less, although the exact opposite is the case when it comes to third place play-offs. Therefore, perhaps we should follow the trend and back Over 2.5 Goals at the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, something that is on offer at 3/4 (bet365). While third place is much coveted, no team is going to fear finishing fourth in the same way that they would dread the thought of reaching a World Cup final only to lose.

Indeed, we saw four or more goals being scored in the corresponding fixture in 2002 and 2006, so it could even be worth contemplating bet365’s Over 3.5 Goals at 11/5. Four years ago, it was the Germans who put Portugal to the sword when winning 3-1 and Die Mannschaft look as though they will take all the beating on Saturday.
 
At the moment, Germany are available at 8/11 (bet365) to win this third place play-off and finish their excellent campaign with a flourish. Joachim Low deserves tremendous credit for the way that he’s put faith in some talented young players and it’s little surprise to see them shortening to win Euro 2010 at the moment.

There are several reasons to think that the European side will prove too strong for their south American counterparts. Firstly, they produced two devastating performances to see off England and Argentina on their way to the semi-finals and probably would have fared better against Spain if Thomas Muller had not been suspended. Considering that they led at the interval in their last sixteen and quarter final matches, Victor Chandler’s 9/5 that they do the same against Uruguay is quite tempting.

Uruguay manager Oscar Tabarez is making all the right noises about the third place play-off although it’s been a tough campaign for his team, especially after playing 120 minutes of football against Ghana in the quarter finals. However, if you think La Celeste can pull off the victory, they are on offer at 4/1 (Ladbrokes) and they will be boosted by the return of Luis Suarez from suspension. The Ajax striker will be a man in demand this summer and he’s 11/1 (William Hill) to break the deadlock.

However, it’s simply got to be Germany in this match and it’s worth looking at some tasty correct score bets. They have already hit four goals on three separate occasions and Coral offer 40/1 that we see them triumph by a 4-0 scoreline. Coral also have a massive 33/1 that the game finishes 4-1 in favour of Die Mannschaft.

Quite simply, this is a huge game of football and many people will have wished this contest to be the World Cup final on Sunday. It’s a repeat of the Euro 2008 final where Spain won 1-0 thanks to a Fernando Torres goal, although the net might bulge more than once when these two attacking teams clash swords in Durban.

The bookmakers are also getting excited about the match and have started to produce a number of special promotions for the biggest game of the World Cup so far. Totesport should be applauded for a wide range of moneyback specials on all the big events and the UK firm will refund all losing correct score bets on this game if Germany manage to get their revenge for Euro 2008 and win the game 1-0.

Meanwhile, bet365, Paddy Power and Blue Square will be running with their customary ‘Bore Draw’ cashback promotions, with refunds being offered on selected markets if the game ends goalless. While Germany have been scoring for fun recently, they will surely adopt a more defensive approach against a free-flowing Spain and they will have Thomas Muller suspended for the big game.

Ladbrokes are continuing to offer their unprecedented 500% new customer bonus during the World Cup, where you will get a free £25 bet simply by depositing £5 when you register. It’s been a popular offer and they are also providing special odds on the two teams going through in extra-time or on penalties.

Only three matches in the 2010 World Cup have gone to extra-time so far and two were decided on spot kicks. However, Germany and Spain might be evenly-matched at the Moses Mabhida Stadium and you can get 10/1 with Ladbrokes that Vicente Del Bosque’s team win after extra-time. However, you can’t rule out Die Mannschaft winning on penalties as they have done so many times before, with odds of 12/1 available about this possibility.

Over at Coral, you can get a free £20 bet when you deposit and wager £10 on the Germany v Spain match. There are so many markets to choose from and it’s noticeable that they are offering a best-priced 4/1 that Miroslav Klose finishes as Top Goalscorer in the 2010 World Cup. While they might be looking to balance their books, it could be a value offer as the Bayern Munich striker looks to break Ronaldo’s record.

Talking of goalscorer bets, Paddy Power are offering customers the chance to bet on ‘First to Score for their Team’ and ‘Insurebet First Goalscorer’ on the Germany v Spain match in addition to First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer and Anytime Goalscorer. The Insurebet option means that if a player doesn’t score the first goal in a match but scores later in the game, you will get your stake refunded. David Villa has scored first in the last three Spain games and is on offer at 13/5 on the Insurebet market or 4/1 if you just think he will score first.

We started the 2010 World Cup with thirty-two teams from all over the planet, although just four remain after 60 matches of football. On Tuesday night, the first place in the final is up for grabs, with Holland facing Uruguay at the Greenpoint Stadium in Cape Town.

It’s likely to be a huge betting contest and many bookmakers have special offers for the game which is well worth checking out. Over at bet365, they continue to run their ‘Penalty Payback’ promotion for the 2010 World Cup, where they’ll refund losing outright bets on any team that gets knocked out on penalties.

So far, bet365 have got away with only refunding losing stakes on Japan and Ghana, not two of the well-backed teams in the competition. However, it’s possible that at least one semi-final this week could go to spot kicks, not to mention the final. Spain are 15/8 favourites, Germany are 2/1, Netherlands are 21/10 and Uruguay are 10/1 with this firm.

Bet365 also have their 0-0 cashback offer available on the Holland v Uruguay and it’s likely that the south Americans will be looking to keep things tight. All losing first goalscorer, last goalscorer, anytime goalscorer, correct score and half-time / full-time bets will be refunded if the game is goalless after ninety minutes. Paddy Power and Blue Square are doing something similar for this game.

Meanwhile, Bet Fred are offering to refund all losing first/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast bets on Holland v Uruguay if Dirk Kuyt scores in the game. The Liverpool striker likes to get forward and it’s not a bad offer at all.

Similarly, Stan James have used their imagination to create a Diego Forlan special for Tuesday night’s game. If the Uruguay striker scores at any point during the 90-minutes on Tuesday night, then the firm will refund all losing first/last goalscorer, anytime goalscorer and hat-trick bets placed on the game.

There’s been plenty of money for the Netherlands in the build-up to the match in Cape Town and it’s possible that Coral’s 4/6 won’t last until kick-off. Other bookmakers have been running for cover as a major gamble takes place on Bert van Marwijk’s team, with punters clearly being swayed by that victory over Brazil in the quarter final. Sporting Bet are now as short as 4/7 (Sporting Bet) about a Dutch win.

It’s good to see that Ladbrokes have also been giving their punters extra value throughout the World Cup and it’s worth checking out their Enhanced Doubles currently available on the World Cup semi-finals. You can back Holland and Spain both to win at odds of 10/3 or alternatively go for the 9/1 that Uruguay draw and Germany win.

The Magic Sign also have goalscorer doubles available and offer 3/1 that Robin Van Persie scores on Tuesday and David Villa finds the net on Wednesday. A Diego Forlan x Lukas Podolski double is on offer at 9/1.

Greenpoint Stadium in Cape Town plays host to the first semi-final of the 2010 World Cup and it might be a lot closer than people are predicting. Indeed, everyone seems to be raving about the Dutch since they beat Brazil in Port Elizabeth, although let’s not forget that Bert van Marwijk’s team didn’t look like scoring until Felipe Melo and Julio Cesar got themselves into a right tangle which led to the Netherlands grabbing an equaliser in the quarter final match.

Therefore, while Coral’s stand-out 4/6 is likely to be popular about Holland winning in normal time and booking their place in a World Cup final for the first time since 1978, there will also be people on betfair laying the Oranje at odds of around 1.66. Yes, they have won all five of their games in South Africa, although the team have only shown glimpses of attacking play and they are sure to continue with the slow tempo start which has served them well up to now.

Uruguay are also unbeaten in this World Cup, something which enabled them to win Group A and enter what many have described as an easier half of the draw. La Celeste then squeezed past South Korea in the last sixteen before the luckiest of victories against Ghana in the quarter final, something which saw Asamoah Gyan miss an extra-time penalty and then Oscar Tabarez’s team eventually triumphing on spot kicks. Perhaps the south Americans will now believe it’s their fate to win the World Cup for a third occasions and you can get 11/2 (bet365) that they land a ninety minute win.

Indeed, while the Black Stars were flying the flag for Africa on Friday, Uruguay are doing the same for their continent after the demise of Argentina and Brazil. Unfortunately, they will be missing the excellent Luis Suarez, whose ‘hand of God’ was spotted by the referee and led to a red card. It means that Diego Forlan (17/2 bet365) will weigh heavy with the burden of trying to score for his team, although the remarkably confident Sebastian Abreu (14/1 bet365) might get his first start of the 2010 World Cup.

As for the Dutch, they will be missing Gregory van der Wiel and Nigel de Jong from the team due to suspension but it won’t stop van Marwijk playing two holding midfielders in front of the defence and hoping that Wesley Sneijder (7/1 Paddy Power) and Arjen Robben (6/1 Ladbrokes) can conjure some magic in the middle of the park. Robin Van Persie is the 4/1 favourite (Paddy Power) to break the deadlock and the Arsenal forward might be up against a weakened defence due to injury concerns over Diego Godin and Diego Lugano.

Even so, the Uruguayans will stick manfully to the task of trying to prevent their opponents from scoring and Boylesports offer 5/2 that the match is a draw and goes to extra-time. If you fancy Tabarez’s team to go through on spot kicks once again, Sporting Bet offer 11/1.

Spain are like a beautiful butterfly to watch. So graceful, so elegant and yet so fragile and vulnerable to predators. While they beat Portugal on Tuesday night, there was a real heart-in-mouth moment where the ball bounced off Carlos Puyol’s thigh and looped over the head of Iker Casillas’ head only to fall on the right side of the post as far as the Spanish were concerned.

Therefore, for all their possession play and lovely movement, there’s always the possibility of the team conceding a goal and Paraguay will be aware of that when the teams line up on Saturday evening. This is exactly the sort of team that can frustrate the European champions and William Hill offer 7/1 that Gerardo Martino’s side win in ninety minutes.

The fact that they have only won one of their four World Cup matches to date suggests that a better bet might be Paraguay +1 at odds of 17/20 with Ladbrokes. After all, it might take some time for Spain to break down their stubborn opponents, who have only conceded one goal in the entire tournament and that was against Italy in the first game. They will be boosted by the return of Victor Caceres from suspension, who will try to break up the neat inter-passing which is the hallmark of the Spanish game.

Nevertheless, Vicente Del Bosque lauded his team’s performance as they eventually found a breakthrough against Portugal and then spent the rest of the match keeping the ball and effectively laughing in the faces of their Iberian opponents. Confidence is coming back after that stuttering start to the 2010 World Cup campaign against the Swiss and bet365 offer 1/2 that they win their fourth game on the bounce in ninety minutes.

There’s one player that everyone’s been talking about after Tuesday night and we don’t mean Cristiano Ronaldo. There’s a reason why Barcelona have shelled out a stack of cash to sign David Villa over the summer and the striker has been amazing for his team. Indeed, there’s an argument that the players would be back in Madrid and Catalunya if it wasn’t for their number seven and he’s available at 7/2 (Paddy Power) to break the deadlock for the fourth game running.

It’s clear that Del Bosque will want to keep Villa on the left-hand side where he is clearly most dangerous. However, there is a dilemma whether to persist with Fernando Torres (4/1 Ladbrokes) or go with Fernando Llorente (6/1 Sky Bet), a player that looked a lot sharper when replacing the former against the Portuguese.

Unlike the other semi-finals, it’s fairly easy to predict how the game will pan out at Ellis Park on Saturday night. Expect to see Spain have a lot of possession and Paraguay to put many men behind the ball. Under 2.5 Goals (4/7 Boylesports) looks likely as there will be only one team trying to score. No Goalscorer could be a bet worth covering at 8/1 (bet365), along with the Spanish to win by 1-0 (5/1 Bet Fred) and 2-0 (11/2 betfair) scorelines.

Although Milovan Rajevac and Oscar Tabarez won’t want this marvellous World Cup adventure to stop, neither could surely have imagined that their respective teams would have such a glittering opportunity to reach the semi-final. The draw has played its part by putting Germany and Argentina in one quarter, with Holland and Brazil featuring in another, with the winner of this tie likely to meet the Selecao in Cape Town next Tuesday.

It’s Uruguay who are strong favourites, just as they were when beating South Korea last Saturday although anyone who watched that game would struggle to argue that La Celeste where wholly convincing. While Diego Godin having to retire at half-time upset the balance in defence a little, there was definitely an element of the south Americans trying to hang on to their slender advantage which allowed the Koreans back into the game. Even so, it won’t stop Tabarez’s team being popular at odds of 11/10 (Paddy Power), especially as they will be included in several doubles with Brazil (who play earlier that day).

However, Ghana will feel as though their destiny is written in the stars after a dramatic (and slightly undeserved) win over the USA on Saturday night. The Black Stars have now etched their names in African football folklore, joining Senegal and Cameroon as the only teams from the Dark Continent to have reached the quarter finals of a World Cup. Not that they will be resting on their laurels at Soccer City and patting themselves on the back. Ladbrokes offer 10/3 that they are victorious in normal time.

The big problem for Rajevac is that two of his best attacking players are going to miss this match. Andre Ayew is suspended and Kevin Prince-Boateng will surely not recover from the injury incurred against America in the previous game. Isaac Vorsah could also be missing from central defence and that could see nineteen-year-old Jonathan Mensah slot in at central defence, although the Ghanaians will still have the fabulous Asamoah Gyan leading the line.

The Rennes striker is carrying the hopes of Africa on his shoulders and Paddy Power offers 15/2 that he scores either first or last during normal time. It was a blistering strike that helped his team reach the quarter final, although it was noticeable how Ghana started to fade in the second half of the match in Rustenburg. Therefore, perhaps the Uruguayans will keep things tight in the first period of the game and look to turn the screw after the break. Paddy Power offer 4/1 that the game is level at half-time but it’s the south Americans that are through by the final whistle.

One advantage that Uruguay have is their twin strikeforce, or perhaps we are being unfair to Edison Cavani (10/1 Victor Chandler), who was scoring regularly for Palermo last season. Even so, it’s Diego Forlan (5/1 William Hill) and Luis Suarez (11/2 Blue Square) that have been grabbing the headlines and they could just help the Uruguayans have the edge.

We have already had some thrilling World Cup last sixteen matches, but perhaps the best is saved for last with these two Iberian neighbours squaring off at Greenpoint Stadium for a place in the quarter finals of this competition.

This ground will hold happy memories for the Portuguese as they ran seven goals past North Korea here a little over a week ago. It didn’t look like a team that had struggled to qualify for South Africa, although they might have their work cut out trying to contain a Spain team which has seemingly recovered from a slow start.

As far as that opening game defeat to Switzerland is concerned, it’s a case of ‘no harm done’ for the Spanish, who still ended up topping the group thanks to victories over Honduras and Chile. It has seen Vicente Del Bosque’s team shorten to a best price 9/2 (Sporting Bet) in the betting, while they are no bigger than 11/10 (Boylesports) to win Tuesday night’s game in normal time.

It appears as though Xabi Alonso is struggling to be fit for the match in Cape Town after picking up an injury against the Chileans last Friday, although Spain have a ready-made replacement in Cesc Fabregas. The biggest concern for La Furia Roja is the form / fitness of Fernando Torres, with the Liverpool forward proving to be sluggish in the matches he has played so far.

The team will need El Nino to be at his best against a tight Portugal defence and he is 11/2 (Paddy Power) to open the scoring, although he often acts as a foil for strike partner David Villa, who scored three times during the group stages and has looked highly dangerous so far. It’s little wonder that Barcelona want to shell out so much money for a player that makes things happen and he’s a tempting 4/1 (William Hill) to break the deadlock for the third game running.

Not that the Portuguese will be easy to break down, with the team one of only two (Uruguay being the other one) not to concede during the group phase. However, while defensive performances against Ivory Coast and Brazil sandwiching that North Korea goalfest helped them qualify, they might need to bring more to the party if they are to knock out the pre-tournament favourites.

Carlos Queiroz’s men are the 10/3 (bet365) outsiders to win in ninety minutes, or you can back them at 7/4 (Ladbrokes) to qualify for the quarter finals in some shape or form (penalties is a possibility as they have a superior record over Spain). It’s likely to be more evenly-matched than the odds suggest, especially if Portugal can get Cristiano Ronaldo on the ball. The forward will have noticed that the Spanish defence is capable of creaking and he’s 6/1 (bet365) to break the deadlock in Cape Town.

If you think that Spain will lead at half-time and full-time for the third match running, you can get odds of 5/2 (Stan James) and there’s the possibility that the Euro 2008 winners will start moving through the gears after a tough qualifying group.

As far as England supporters are concerned, games don’t come any bigger than this (unless they play Argentina in the quarter final!). For the uninitiated, the Three Lions experienced two particularly big doses of pain during the 1990’s against the Germans where the latter knocked them out of major competitions in penalty shoot-outs. Therefore, the fans think there is a score to settle and Fabio Capello’s team are available at 17/10 (Paddy Power) to win in ninety minutes and have people dancing on the streets of Plymouth, Peterborough and Preston.

While it’s a nice idea, the reality is that these are shocking odds about a side that were running down the clock against Slovenia in their last match. Of course, there’s always the chance that England might raise their game and win, although we have seen little evidence that they will retain possession or score goals against a good quality team. If you agree with this opinion, then there’s only one thing for it – back the Germans and make some money from the bookies being scared of their liabilities by taking on England.

Joachim Loew’s team aren’t world-beaters (well not yet anyway!), although they scored four goals to beat Australia, were the better team with ten men when narrowly losing to Serbia and capped things off by beating Ghana. This was supposed to be the ‘Group of Death’ and Germany have come through with flying colours, something that makes them far too big at 15/8 (Victor Chandler) to win on Sunday afternoon.

While the Germans are without the injured Michael Ballack, it’s possible that this is a blessing in disguise considering that Mesut Ozil has been the player of the tournament so far. Forget Lionel Messi, the Werder Bremen midfielder has been sensational during the group stages and he scored an excellent goal against Ghana to ensure his team won the group. Expect him and Bastian Schweinsteiger to pull the strings in midfield, with 14/1 (Ladbrokes) and 14/1 (Paddy Power) being quoted about them scoring first.

England had a full complement of players that trained on Friday as they look to demonstrate that a group of world class individuals can be moulded into a world class team. It sounds as though Wayne Rooney has been banging them in during training and the Manchester United forward will be a very popular bet at 6/1 (Victor Chandler) to score the opening goal in Bloemfontein. Perhaps it’s strike partner Jermain Defoe that might exploit gaps in the German defence a little better and the Tottenham man is 8/1 (Sky Bet) to draw first blood.

Of course, the games in 1990 and 1996 ended in a draw at full-time and extra-time, so perhaps we should be backing the 11/5 (Blue Square) that the match finishes all square and we can’t resist a cheeky bet on those crafty Germans to win on penalties at odds of 10/1 (Sporting Bet).