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Bookmaker Specials on the 2010 World Cup

December 8th, 2009 / dave

Last Friday, 32 nations discovered their fate as the draw for next summer’s World Cup took place in Cape Town. Never before has the draw received so much attention, with the media keen to identify ‘Groups of Death’, despite the fact that every team playing in the competition are there on merit (with the exception of South Africa).

A couple of bookmakers have already decided to offer a generous cashback special on the World Cup, with Sky Bet offering to refund all losing outright bets if England are triumphant. This is possibly an attempt to encourage less English people to back their own country, with many UK bookmakers likely to run up liabilities on Fabio Capello’s team ahead of the tournament starting.

Similarly, Boylesports are offering to refund all losing outright bets if France repeat their 1998 victory and win the World Cup for the second time. This is a reaction to the controversial way in which Ireland were eliminated from the play-offs by Les Bleus, although this is not a vintage French team, with Blue Square offering 16/1 that Raymond Domenech steers them to glory.

The bookmakers have already gone into overdrive with a wide range of markets on the 2010 World Cup, with every group match already priced up by the likes of Paddy Power and Sky Bet. In addition, betfair have set up the matches on their website, although it might be some time before there is reasonable liquidity. Paddy Power have also priced up correct score, double chance and HT / FT opportunities for each game, with each of these related to the match betting.

Coral, Sky Bet, Paddy Power and bet365 have also priced up a ‘Stage of Elimination’ market for 14 of the 32 teams, with England available at 9/2 (Coral) to go out of the competition at the semi-final stage. For those that think that Brazil might suffer in the ‘Group of Death’, Paddy offer 5/1 that the five-time winners go out at the group stage, although Portugal might be a more sensible bet with the Irish firm at 6/4.

Totesport have priced up a ‘Top African Team’ market and it’s no surprise to see Ivory Coast available at even money, although a tough group could see Ghana (9/2) or Cameroon (11/2) go further than their continental cousins. Totesport also offer ‘Top European Team’ which is naturally a competitive market, but will anyone get further than Euro 200 winners Spain (11/5)? It’s no surprise to see Europe a best price 4/9 (bet365) to be the winning continent, with South America next at 9/4 (Blue Square).

Finally, Blue Square have opened a market on which England players will make the 23-man squad that jets out to South Africa in the summer. Shaun Wright-Phillips is clearly a borderline decision at 10/11, with Gabby Agbonlahor an interesting price at 9/4. His Villa team-mate James Milner looks more likely to take a place on the plane, with his odds at 4/11 right now.




2010 World Cup betting latest

November 19th, 2009 / dave

We now know the 32 teams who will contest the 19th renewal of the World Cup next summer in South Africa. France’s progress to the finals was heavily controversial, although Stan James offer a best price 16/1 that Raymond Domenech’s team repeat their success of 1998. The big surprise on Wednesday evening was the exit of Russia, although the bookmakers don’t rate Slovenia’s chances in their first ever tournament. Coral make them 400/1 outsiders, although they are there on merit after finishing second in a tough qualifying group.

Portugal managed to ease through against Bosnia despite missing Cristiano Ronaldo, although they are sure to have officially the world’s best player back for the finals. Sporting Bet offer 18/1 that Carlos Queiroz steers the team to glory, although they continue to lack a cutting edge up front. Meanwhile, the dream is still alive for Euro 2004 winners Greece, who landed a 1-0 win in Ukraine to go through this week. Otto Rehhagel’s tactics worked a treat in Kiev, although the bookies are less convinced that they’ll make an impact in South Africa. Victor Chandler offer 150/1 that they are triumphant.

Some people are suggesting that the 2010 World Cup winner is going to come from a select group of two. Spain proved during Euro 2008 that they are an outstanding team and Ladbrokes make them slight favourites at 4/1 to prove that they’re the best nation on the planet. Manager Vicente del Bosque is blessed with some technically brilliant players and it’s hard to pick holes in them at the moment. Similarly, Brazil have an excellent World Cup pedigree and Paddy Power are lifting their heads above the parapet by offering 5/1. The South Americans have featured in three of the last four finals and qualified easily. Perhaps backing both of these teams will prove to be a profitable excursion.

In recent months, one of the big market movers have been the Ivory Coast, with William Hill going as short as 20/1 that they become the first African nation to win the tournament. They very nearly beat Germany in a friendly recently and have arguably the world’s best striker in Didier Drogba. The Elephants will have plenty of competitive match action in the African Nations cup and are the continent’s best chance of success. While the hosts will obviously have home advantage, they looked to be a mediocre team during the Confederations Cup and Coral are prepared to lay them at 200/1.

One of the teams that has drifted the most is Argentina and the rumour on the grapevine is that the bookmakers are out to get Diego Maradona’s team next summer. Bet Fred offer a standout 10/1 about the Albicelestes, although they were slightly fortunate to qualify and having Lionel Messi in the team does not equal success. However, firms are reporting a brisk trade on the Netherlands and England to win next summer’s competition. The Dutch blew the opposition away in qualifying and have been cut to 14/1 (bet365), while England are 13/2 (Coral), with Fabio Capello fielding a weakened team against Brazil recently. It might be worth taking this price now as there will be a flood of patriotic money coming for the Three Lions by the time next summer comes around!















































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