World Cup Qualifying

Making the most of the European World Cup Qualifiers, could mean stepping outside the box of wagering on fixed odd single outcomes. This is a once-in-four-years chance to spread the betting as the remaining eight teams from the European zone stride valiantly towards a place at South Africa 2010. This represents an exciting night of action across Europe, one which could be rewards through alternative betting. This, therefore, is a good night to try and employ some of the many forms of multiple bets that are on offer. The starting place for this would be…

DOUBLE
A Double is where you make a selection on the outcome of two different sporting events, meaning that you can’t pick the France v Ireland game to end in a draw, and a win for the Irish for example. This is a basic multiple bet, where you need both results to come up. What happens is that the returns from the first selection gets placed on the second one, accumulating the odds. With four European games on offer on Wednesday night, it shouldn’t be too hard to pick two winners out. Now, with the circumstance surrounding the games on Wednesday night, there are options other than just picking a winner on the night. You could go for the “To Qualify” bet, which will eliminate any worries of whether or not the games will be going to extra time or penalties. All you would be concentrating on with that, is a team getting to the World Cup Finals, and not how.

The selection for the European Play-offs on Wednesday night are (aggregate score in brackets):
France (1) v Ireland (0)
Slovenia (1) v Russia (2)
Ukraine (0) v Greece (0)
Bosnia (0) v Portugal (1)

Two of the favourites to get through are France and Russia. Taking both of those To Qualify in a double with bring France 1/12 at Coral and Russia 2/7 at Coral (the double bet will need to be placed at one Bookmakers clearly). That would bring a small return, but a little profit is better than no profit at all, and the To Qualify odds are going to be shorter than a ninety-minute win result on the night. Looking at the latter, then you could get  France to win 8/15 and Russia to win 7/5 at William Hill. A £1 stake on a double would bring a return of essentially trebling your stake.

TREBLE
The same as a Double, but you need three selections and need them all to come in for a return. Much harder to pull of than a Double, even though it is just one more selection, but naturally the returns will be bigger. Here again you can play with To Qualify bets, or win markets. Sticking with the favourites just to win their matches on the night would give decent prices, therefore backing at William Hill France 8/15, Russia 7/5 and Portugal 13/10 would bring a return of £8.46 for a £1 stake. Looking at SkyBet To Qualify France 1/16, Russia 1/4, Portugal 1/4 which is a relatively safe bet, would bring £1.66 return on a £1 stake.

ACCUMULATOR
Above and beyond the Double and Treble bets, comes the Accumulator. For this you will need to play with four or more selections which need to come in. If the Treble is hard to land, then this is like some kind of betting Holy Grail. It seems very easy at the time of placing bets, that everything is going to go to plan, but it is hard, even picking from the four European World Cup Qualifying games. For example, let’s look at Bet365 for an Accumulator on match results. Portugal to win 7/5, Russia to win 13/10, France to win 1/2 and Ukraine to win 3/4. That is backing all of the favourites, but of course, wins, however much expected, can be interrupted by hard fought draws by the underdogs which is some cases is enough for teams (Portugal for example will progress with a score draw on the night). The hardest game to look out for here is the Ukraine v Greece one, which is the tightest one to call as they look incredibly evenly matched. Making a selection on an accumulator is judging not what teams you may think will win, but judging what they need to do. Drawn games are the pitfall of many Accumulators, but you can at least use your judgement and take a draw instead of a win, which in many cases will be at better odds. The name of an accumulator will change with the amount of selections made, like a fivefold, or six fold accumulator for example.

FULL COVER BETS
This is where the fun could be taken. A Trixie would be ideal for Wednesday night’s qualifiers. What is a Trixie? It is three selections which are covered by four bets. Within the Trixie you have three doubles and one treble. What this does is give you coverage on your bet, and you can see some return if only two of your three selections come up. The difference in terms of stake between this and an Accumulator for example, is that if you want to wager £1, then you are actually staking £4, which is the sum of staking £1 on each of the bets (unless you just put four bets of 25pence on each, then your stake will be £1). Let’s again look at the favourites, this time at BetFred for a Trixie, looking at win markets on the night. Picking three of the four matches for Wednesday night: France 8/15, Russia 11/8 and Portugal 7/5 at a BetFred Trixie would bring a return of £21.76 for a £4 stake if all three results come in (which would mean you reap the benefit of three doubles and a treble).

YANKEE
If you really want to push the boat out and feel confident that you can pick four correct outcomes, again whether it is win markets, To Qualify bets, a mix, or anything else you fancy on the games, then you can go for a Yankee. This is the bigger brother of a Trixie, where you make four selections, and are covered this time by eleven bets. You get six doubles, four trebles and a fourfold Accumulator. Again this will pay off immensely if all four results come up, but  you are covered if only two of them happen to, as that will be a minimum to capitalise on one of the double bets. A Yankee will accrue a larger stake, just like the Trixie, your stake amount will be applied to each covered bet, in this case, all eleven of them, so if you wagered £11, you would have £1 on each bet. Let’s look at what Blue Square has on offer for the Qualifiers. Portugal 6/4, France 1/2, Russia 5/4 and Ukraine 17/20 will return £71.95 for that £11 stake.

Of course, with so much at stake, anything could happen on the night, and the selections will be down to you. Drawn matches are probable, and perhaps one upset out of the four games is possible too. Choose the online Bookmaker which works best for you, and you could have some fun and profit with the second legs of the European Qualification Play-Offs, even if you may not be overly interested in the games themselves. If you want to branch out further, remember there are two other Qualification matches being played, a hotly contested one between Uruguay and Costa Rica, and an even more fiercely contested one, at least amongst fans, between Egypt and Algeria. The latter two are in a sudden death playoff after finish their group qualification with exactly the same records, and it was a 95th minute second goal for Egypt which as brought this about. Uruguay leads Costa Rica 1-0 on aggregate.

While England are off to the Ukraine trying to keep their unblemished qualifying record going, the Republic of Ireland will be embroiled in a momentous game in Dublin against the Italians. Both games are of equal importance for all of the parties involved, and make up two of the most interesting games happening on Saturday in World Cup 2010 European Qualifying.

The Republic of Ireland need to beat Italy in order to stay in with a chance of claiming top spot from them. The incentive of topping the group will be drilled into them, by the Italian that is in the Irish camp, manager Giovanni Trapattoni. A win for the Irish would close the gap at the top to one point, and make for a cracking night on Wednesday, with that top spot up for grabs. As much as the Irish can do themselves a favour by beating the Italians, topping the group is something which may still be out of their own hands. They will require Italy to slip up in their final game on Wednesday, which is a home fixture against minnows Cyprus. Even if things do not go their way on Wednesday, by beating the Italians, the Irish will be safe in the knowledge that they have second place wrapped up. The Irish are at home to Montenegro, and will still be looking to pick up points to make sure they are among the best 8 of the 9 second placed teams which go into a playoff.

All of the teams finishing as group Runner’s-Up will have their results against the team which finishes bottom of their respective groups, wiped out, and any points gained therefore, taken away. This is because Group 9 only had five teams as opposed to the six in all of the others. Because the teams in Group 9 all played a game less, there weren’t as many points up for grabs. This is FIFA’s complicated way of levelling the playing field. It all boils down to, the more points the Irish can pick up against Italy, the safer they will be. Georgia are bottom of the group at the moment, who the Irish have beaten twice, so that technically puts them on 10 points, the threshold for Group 9 runner’s up Norway. However, if Montenegro lose against Georgia and finish bottom, then Ireland will lose only the 1 point gained in a draw against them, plus whatever happens on Wednesday when they play them.

Betting Tips:
Playing against Italy, even at home is going to be a tough ask for the Irish. The World Champions have been their usual efficient selves throughout qualifying, and will be hard to break down. They only need a point to secure top place in the group.
Ireland to win: 13/5 at Stan James
Draw: 2/1 at BetFred
Italy to win: 6/4 at Blue Square

Look for a Draw No Bet - Ireland 5/4 at SkyBet. It will give a little security on your money, while backing the home side.

England’s opponents, the Ukraine, need nothing less than a win to keep their hopes alive. They need the three points so that they can leap above Croatia into second place. With both Croatia and the Ukraine having easy last games, this is the Ukraine’s last chance to take advantage of the game they have in hand over the Croats. As England have proven throughout the qualifying tournament, they no longer appear to be a pushover under Capello. The English will go into the game as favourites, and striker Wayne Rooney, who is leading the goal-scoring charts in European Qualifying, has been public with his thoughts that the whole of England, as well as they players want to see them win all of their games. Capello does not seem to be the type of person who will sit back on laurels. The game can be watched live online with a funded account with Bet365.

Betting Tips:
England can score goals, they have proven that, and they have done so away from home. This one has the feel of a tight game, but an Asian Handicap of England -1 at 7/2 with Bet365 could offer a nice reward should they keep the goals flowing and bag two or more.

Ukraine to win: 9/5 at Stan James
Draw: 13/5 at William Hill
England to win: 6/4 at Bet365

Rooney anytime scorer: 11/5 at Coral
Lampard anytime scorer: 7/2 at Paddy Power
Andrei Shevchenko anytime scorer: 13/5 at Paddy Power

England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and the Republic of Ireland are all in World Cup Qualifying action Wednesday, and all facing mixed fortunes heading into their respective matches. Scotland have the most crucial game of all home nations, as they are the brink of missing out on South Africa 2010. They need a positive victory at home against Holland as they go seeking a runners-up spot in their final qualifying match. They received a big boost on Saturday as they beat Macedonia 2-0 at Hampden to set themselves up with a chance. It is not an easy chance as the Dutch won the group convincingly, but the Scots are there and only a victory will genuinely preserve their World Cup lifeline, along with results going their way in other groups.

The qualifying situation is a little complicated, because Group 9 (Scotland’s group) only has five teams in it. Technically the Scots only need a draw against the Dutch to secure second place in the group. However, not getting a win may put them at risk of being the second placed team with the worst record. The qualifying from Europe breaks down as this, and shows why Scotland rightly are still in with a chance of four Home Nations making it to South Africa (as Wales have already been eliminated from qualifying except in some far fetched numerical theory). Point three below will clarify Scotland’s situation a little better…

• Nine group winners will automatically qualify
• Eight of the nine second placed teams will progress
• The second placed teams will have their records against the bottom team in their group wiped out. This is because Group 9 has only 5 teams, whereas all the others have 6. Doing this will ensure that all second placed teams will be based on an equal amount of games played.
• A random draw will be done to determine two-leg qualifying fixtures from which four teams will qualify

The maximum points the Scottish can finish with is 13 as a second placed team. However, Hungary in Group One are already on 13 in second place, and in Group Two Greece and Latvia are tied in second and third respectively on the same number of points. With them playing more games than Scotland in the run in, they could lose some of those points when all matches have been played. For example, Hungary have beaten bottom placed Malta twice already, so that will mean six points off their total if they finish second, so technically that puts them behind Scotland. All a little complicated as opposed to FIFA simply putting another team in Group 9 to start with, but that’s the way it goes.

The Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland both sit in second place in their respective groups. Both are closing in on the leaders, but also have the threat of teams catching up from them behind. The Republic of Ireland are chasing Italy, but they aren’t in action again until October. They will be hoping that the Italians fail to beat Bulgaria, and that Bulgaria don’t pull off a win either as they are in third place. A draw will suit the Irish to a tee. Northern Ireland are in a crunch match with table topping Slovakia. If Slovakia win, they’ll all but guarantee their place at the finals, but a win for the Irish will position themselves wonderfully for a runners-up spot, as they have played one more game than Slovakia.

England could clinch the group with a draw if the Ukraine can’t manage to beat Belarus, but that’s a little unlikely, but the win for Capello’s men will seal the group regardless. It could also put Croatia’s World Cup hopes on ice, as the Ukraine would be level on points with them with a game in hand, if both they and England win.

Group One has all kinds of permutations ahead of Wednesday’s fixtures, but the most prominent one is if Hungary beat Portugal, that will pretty much be the end of Cristiano Ronaldo’s chance of showing up on the world stage, as Hungary will only need one point from their remaining games to doom the Portuguese to a summer of golf. In Group Two, Switzerland can put themselves in very strong pole position with a win, although no-one can actually book a qualification place as the group is tight. Germany and Russia are the only ones playing with any interest in Group Four. Again neither can qualify, and the winner of this group will likely be the winner of the clash between the two in October. Group Seven has one of the exciting matches of the night between first placed Serbia and second placed France, who are four points behind the leaders. Serbia win, they will join Holland in South Africa, France win, they’ll close within a point.

GROUP ONE outright
Denmark – 1/8 at BetFred
Sweden – 7/1 at Bet365
Portugal – 28/1 at Coral
Hungary – 100/1 at 888Sport

GROUP TWO outright
Greece – 4/1 at Boylesports
Switzerland – 1/3 at Bet365
Lativa – 16/1 at Totesport

GROUP THREE outright
Slovakia – 4/11 at BetFred
Czech Republic – 12/1 at Totesport
N. Ireland – 12/1 at Coral
Poland – 16/1 at Bet365
Slovenia – 20/1 at SkyBet

GROUP FOUR outright
Germany – 1/3 at BlueSquare
Russia – 5/2 at Victor Chandler

GROUP FIVE outright
Spain – 1/200 at BetFred
Bosnia – 28/1 at BoyleSports

GROUP SIX outright
England – 1/80 at PaddyPower
Croatia – 16/1 at Bet365
Ukraine – 66/1 at Totesport

GROUP SEVEN outright
Sebria – 2/5 at BetFred
France – 5/2 at Bet365

GROUP EIGHT outright
Itlay – 1/6 at BetFred
Rep. of Ireland – 5/1 at Victor Chandler
Bulgaria – 40/1 at Totesport

Wednesday, September 9th
8.00pm Kick Off at Wembley

England midfielder David Beckham could be back in a different kind of England shirt in the summer, this time one of the English Premier league club shirts. His season for LA Galaxy finishes in November, and Becks has stated that he has options to come back to England. Last year Becks was loaned out to AC Milan, who, reportedly are keen to have him back. He’s clearly not stating any names of clubs involved in taking him on loan until he returns to LA for March, but he knows the importance of keeping up his full fitness during the MLS off season. The World Cup is just around the corner, and a fit Becks is a bonus to have on the bench.

Beckham has leadership and experience, and will be somewhat embittered by the failure to qualify for Euro 2008 when the Croats beat them in the last qualifying game at Wembley. That game has been much talked about in the run up to Wednesday’s clash, but coach Fabio Capello has been keen to dismiss talk of the players being single mindedly out for revenge. Taking a cool approach, Capello pragmatically stated that the disastrous defeat for England had no bearing on current events. It was in the past and that is where it should stay, and that watching videos of that game now will not help the current English position. Instead Capello has been studying the most important games of the Group 6 Qualifying matches, including Croatia’s struggle to overturn Belarus, and how successful England were when they defeated Croatia 4-1 earlier in the campaign thanks to an Aaron Lennon hat trick.

Croatian team coach Slaven Bilic has been spouting a little bit of rhetoric ahead of the match, as he initiated the role of being protagonist in the mind games. He insisted that under Italian Fabio Capello, England had lost some of the English-ness that had always made them difficult to play against. One can only assume he will be referring to the physical force of past English teams which relied on long balls and a big physical presence up front. That certainly is not the Italian’s way, as England displayed at times in their friendly match against Slovenia on Saturday. There were passages of creative midfield play, that were slick and decisive, and with Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard at the heart of the team, there is a good balance of both power and finesse. John Terry and Wayne Rooney certainly won’t be pulling out of any physical challenges.

After thanking former West Ham and Everton defender Bilic for saving him the trouble of a thinking up a team talk, Capello’s main headache before the game has been who will be the second striker. Will he stick with Heskey up front to create room for Rooney, or will he start with the red hot Jermain Defoe who has netted five times in the last three England games? The coach knows, but he’s just not telling yet. The other main position up for contention is in Beckham’s position on the right wing. With the former Captain starting on the bench, the position will be filled by either Shaun Wright-Phillips or Aaron Lennon. Guesses will be that it will be Heskey and SWP lining up for kick off.

The only positive thing that came out of that night in 2007 in the 3-2 defeat, was the fact that it meant Steve McClaren was no longer going to be England manager. The history and disappointment of that Wembley night will still be on the minds of the few participants who were there though. Only Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard and Gareth Barry are likely starters on Wednesday from that rainy Wembley line-up. Motivation for the English should come simply from the fact that there is a World Cup place with the nation’s name on it. That is something Capello recognises as being more important than revenge.

England – 8/13 at Bet365
Draw – 11/4 at BetFred
Croatia – 11/2 at William Hill

Betting Tips. England should win, and the bookies recognise that. With the home crowd and vital points at stake, it should be a done deal. It will probably be worth backing up the England win bet with some other tasty tempters such as these…

First Scorer: Frank Lampard – 8/1 at Labdrokes. Big Frank can pop up at any time. If Rooney’s able to win a penalty again when it matters, this truly would be an awesome pick.

England to win 1-0 – 11/2 at SkyBet. A sensible bet. It’s unlikely this is going to be a high scoring match, with England not wanting any slip ups, and the fact that the late goal conceded against the Slovenians, was down to incredibly lazy defending, should have been driven home by Capello.

Football at international level can more often than not be a psychological battle.

In the International arena very often the team that pulls together can achieve so much more than the team of household names who are pulling in different directions. I personally feel this is why nations such as Germany have been successful time and again and have sometimes achieved success despite their superstars retiring or being absent from major competitions.

In Euro2004 we saw the classic example of the total being greater than the sum of the parts when against all odds Greece lifted the trophy.

And it’s the current Greek squad who are attracting my betting eye this week as they line up at home to Switzerland. Greece are showing the signs of being a united squad and results during this world cup qualifying campaign have been impressive. The Swiss meanwhile have been poor on their travels with only one win in their last 6 away fixtures.

At home Greece have been a force and I feel at 4/5 with Bet365 they will see off the Swiss on Wednesday

Well the hectic start to the Premier League continues to throw up some surprise results. I had felt at least one team would suffer a champions league hangover, unfortunately for me, I chose the wrong teams.

Arsenal it seems are the inconsistent members of the top 4. It’s often said that true champions are judged on how they respond to defeat. Well Arsenal have responded to poor results with resounding victories, however, true champions respond with several wins rather than solitary ones! So this could be an interesting trend to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

This Weekend sees the resumption of World Cup qualifying and we need to search for value in this particular market. The obvious wins are just that and the bookies have them priced accordingly.

Which is precisely why my eye has been drawn to Sweden hosting Portugal. Both teams have their injury woes so I see this as a contest of who has the best strength in depth. Both teams have had a fairly indifferent start to the campaign and I feel both will have a ‘don’t lose’ mentality, which makes the draw priced at 9/4 with Coral an attractive proposition