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Top Rated Runners – Horse Racing Betting System

14th June 2011 / cyril
Betting Advice

AS OLD AS BETTING SHOPS, AND OTHER THINGS.

Back in the dark-ages before Betting Shops opened there was a publication called THE SPORTING INVESTOR. A pocket-sized booklet, usually 48 pages. The contents were sporting systems. mainly Horse-Racing but with some Football and Greyhound coverage too.
It really came into it’s own when betting shops opened, legally.
One of it’s many contributors was a chap called PROMATH. if he is still alive today, he’ll be cleaning-up on Betfair.
His "methods" as they were called then would be called "strategies" by today’s readers.
He was well ahead of his time where betting methods were concerned.
In those "dark ages" days he would have had to "Dutch" most of his selections but today he’d be able to LAY them on Betfair.
He did publish a book of his methods. Mine was borrowed never to be returned. It is, of course out of print and the publishers no longer exist. 

Most of his methods revolved around "Streaks" and breaking them.
One that I can bring to mind is regards Tipsters on a winning streak.
His way of thinking was that any tipster was unlikely to have more than TWO consecutive winners. He would then bet against the next selection.
To operate this at SP would entail being in the betting shop from the start of racing. With the advent of the internet it’s now possible to be kept up to date with results so LAYING the next selection after a successful two consecutive winners is open to all.
This method will work just as well with WINNING JOCKEYS.

Another method was based on the NAPS TABLE in the RACING PRESS. Today it would be the RACING POST that is used.
Very basic in selection terms. When a TIPSTER has tipped two consecutive winners LAY the next days selection. Anyone who is cognisant with the NAPS TABLE, will know that there will only be a handful or so of bets each season.
If anybody has the necessary back numbers of the RACING POST, he would do well to back check this method. I’m sure this will be a moneyspinner.
This basic idea has many offshoots. Any one who bets in multiples would be well advised to begin to LAY their next selection once TWO consecutive winners have evolved. The possibilities are endless. Just think about them for a few minutes.

I recently unearthed a folder with a number of Horse-Racing systems which date back some 25 years. Some of them even older.
I intend to forage though them and re-jig the better amongst them.
The first is a far cry from anything I’ve covered so far in as much as it will cover mainly HANDICAPS. Not my favourite type of race.
 
Whilst it can be operated under both codes I’ll deal with the FLAT first.
Ignore any Maiden Races and Selling Races. This will leave just HANDICAPS and better class CONDITION RACES.

The basic rules are, use three sets of RATINGS from various newspapers. From the Racing Post, Top Speed and Racing Post Ratings You then have a choice of using ratings from your favourite newspaper.
using different sets of ratings gives a wider range of opinion. Top speed is based on times in previous races and the Racing Post Ratings are based on weight. Most newspaper ratings are based on both criteria. Sort of a "second opinion" on speed and weight.

The runner that interests us is the TOP-RATED in each categary.
A potential selection for our race(s) must be TOP-RATED by each of the ratings used. Further research is needed to check it’s ability over the current distance. A win within 1/2 a furlong either side of the current distance is required. Also check that the potential selection can act on the "GOING". A horse can usually "act" on going either side to that on which it has won on.
i.e. A win on Good going would suggest the ability to act on Soft and/or Firm. A glimpse at it’s PEDIGREE should give a good indication as to it’s going likings.
If in early season, make sure that the selection has previously shown his ability at an early time in a previous season.

Previous placings are normally not considered but I would beware of a runner who as NOT been in the first FOUR at least once in it’s last TWO outings. Being unplaced in either of these two outings can be put down to one of many things and can be excused but two such unplaced runs usually means it’s "OVER THE TOP".
Other things to look out for. Horses dropping down in class. They are not really worth the bother. Remember they were handicapped in a specific class and that is were they belong. They will only drop down the handicap when the HANDICAPPER is happy that they really should be demoted.
Be very wary of taking Maiden race form into HANDICAPS because it seldom "carries". The only exception MAY BE in NURSERY HANDICAPS.
Even then take extra care.

At any stage in the proceedings should you have JOINT TOP RATED runners, treat them as if each one was the SOLE TOP RATED FOR THAT RACE.
This is an old system which I have tried to revitalise.  it’s not unlikely that there may be other filters that you would like to add to the selection process. Please do so and should they prove to be of value let us all know.

This method can also be used for National Hunt Racing.
Races to ignore are, Novice Races, Selling Races and Maiden Hunter Steeplechasers.
It might also be wise to consider leaving out 3 mile ‘Chase Races and Long Distance Hurdles.
It might also be apt to change the Ratings Providers. I’m thinking of finding an alternative to Top Speed. Something else based on weight might be more appropriate.

The method outlined above will give many selections, especially on the busier days. It might be a good idea to choose tracks with the highest grading. Or choose a set number of races (say 6), using those with the HIGHEST VALUE. As with Flat Racing VALUE usually
defines CLASS.


Merciless Barrage System.

I began keeping a record of selections on 4th May.
For selection purposes I use the Daily Mirror. 
Since that date and up to 31st May there have been,

12 betting Races.

8 Winning Bets. Including
4 consecutive winners. 

4 Losing Bets with a run of 3 consecutive losers.

Present run is 3 winning bets.

Backing the No 1 Selection with 20 pts
Backing the No 2 selection with 10 pts.

Current PROFIT is 225.5 pts.

Back selectivly and sensibly.



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