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Value Betting – Football Betting Strategies

PITFALLS?

15th February 2012 / cyril
Betting Advice

How many of you base your bets on VALUE? Not many I’ll bet. Although it is one of the better ways of betting. You’re much more likely to finish in profit betting that way. However doing so you will miss many winners and probably back many more losers too.
Simply because VALUE betting usually means going against the crowd and backing the underdog. But should it be that way?
what is VALUE? It’s when the odds on offer are bigger than the form book suggests they should be.

Many professional punters spend most of their time looking for VALUE BETS. True, they don’t get bogged down with selections. Also true is that they miss out on lesser value winners.
However there is one thing that I just don’t agree with. There are many amongst them who will back a VALUE BET when they don’t expect it to win. It is usually the underdog but according to their strategy it has VALUE.

I decide how I expect a match to end up and then look for the possibility that there may be VALUE. When it does occur, I increase my stake. I don’t see the point in backing a team that that doesn’t inspire confidence in the first place.
Some people will pour scorn on VALUE BACKERS as their betting is far from exciting. Mainly because they have fewer bets because of their obsession with VALUE. Boring is one word I’ve heard used many times.

There is, of course, the other side. How many times have you seen the odds for a match and thought, “Those odds are too big”? Even worse when the result proves you right and the “big odds team” wins. That’s an occasion when the VALUE BACKER  would be having the last laugh. The question is, “would you be prepared to miss all the bets that don’t have VALUE ( and almost certainly miss a good few winners) for the larger prices on the VALUE bets“?

The BIG problem with VALUE BETTING is every punters nightmare. Losing runs and usually LONG LOSING RUNS.
Not many people have to wherewithal to cope with too long a downturn.
So the thing to do is to try to strike a balance. Sounds more like the judgement of Solomon to me though.

Where/what do you think is the worst way to place your bet?

Online, via Mobile, Telephone or perhaps at your local betting shop.
An article in a national ‘paper asked this question in a similar vein.
When the writer gave his answer. The worst place from his point of view is THE BETTING SHOP.
I couldn’t disagree with him either. Talk about biting the hand that used to feed me!
It’s about 8 years since I last settled a bet professionally. However I could only agree with the writer.

The betting shop is the last place you should visit if you haven’t already decided upon your bet. Simply because the distractions are all there with but one intention in mind. To fluster the punter. Just think about it. There are races going off at five minute intervals. Betting shows every couple of seconds. Constant banter over the “blower” whenever there’s a couple of seconds to spare. Not to mention, greyhounds races, off every 7 or 8 minutes. Trips to foreign courses, just to fill in a couple of spare minutes. (I find it unbelievable that they take in places like Dubai where betting is ILLEGAL).
Don’t forget the Cartoon racing, horse and dogs. Finally there’s those wonderful slot machines. You can’t help but hear them. Clank, clank, rumble and ching. As a single coin hits the “out-tray”.

Believe me all that “wonderful” noise has but one intent. To hurry the punter into going to the counter. “They’re going in, soon be under”. Yes it’s all designed to fluster the punter. All to one end of course.
So why not sort out your bets BEFORE going to the betting shop. Or open an account with an online bookmaker.

The Silly Season.

The transfer window has closed and players try to settle in with their new colleagues. The weather is as ever changeable. Pitches not at their best when frost turns to rain. Even snowfalls are likely. It’s also the time when dodgy decisions seems to come into their. Just ask Fergie. Not really an ideal time to fight for survival or hope for that nice long purple patch which will lead to one of those coveted Champions League places. With all these little foibles likely to play a part in the fortunes of both players and clubs, it’s no wonder silly  situations come about.

This is, hopefully, when a few opportunities will arise for the wide awake punter to make a few extra shekels.
Perhaps these hints may suit the more adventurous punters but nevertheless some opportunities will occur to indulge in a crafty bit of trading. Not something that will give an enormous boost to your bank but they will help add a decent amount per trade.
Going against my normal procedures I’m looking at teams from the top end of the various leagues when playing AWAY against those at the nearer the bottom end. Now under normal circumstances the favourite in the match will be the higher placed team. Fine.

We now LAY the favourite. As the favourite will be odds-on any loss will be less than our hoped for profit.
Now we need the favourite to play like Chelsea normally do and grind out a result. We want the game to proceed towards a goalless half-time. Or we want the underdog to score first. However, it’s always worthwhile playing safe and decide to GREEN-UP when the favourite has drifted a specific number of ticks. Which it will do unless the unthinkable happens and they score an early goal. This is why it’s best to go for the sure but steady teams. Those that are prepared to sit back and wait for the right moment to break on the counter.

This will prove a useful strategy as the season moves towards it’s end, when the lower placed teams are praying and playing for salvation.
Laying the FAVOURITE at, say, 1.70 then just watching as it edges towards 1.90 or so. Or maybe a little more. Just don’t get too greedy. A bird in the hand etc.
Don’t forget, also check out the current goalscoring/conceding form of both teams and never forget to find out how previous games have finished.

Remember, bet only with money you can afford to lose.



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