William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle – Horse Racing Betting (14 January)

Paddy Power look to be taking a bit of a chance in pricing up the unexposed Swincombe Flame at 8/1 for this weekend’s William Hill Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton.

The mare, who has been beaten once in her career to date, is getting weight from all but one of her 19 rivals in the valuable mid-season handicap and has plenty in her favour. Representing the same trainer/jockey combination responsible for last year’s winner James De Vassy, the six-year-old is still very much on an upward curve judged on her easy win in a novice hurdle at Wincanton last month. She does have to prove her ability to stay this longer trip, having been surprisingly beaten over 2m3f at Exeter on her hurdling debut, and match strides with experienced handicappers. Both victories to date over timber have also come on soft going but she did win a highly competitive Listed NH Flat Race on good ground at Sandown last year and is bred to be effective over much further than that 2m trip. Swincombe Flame can finally put to bed any doubts and collect her biggest prize to date but there are several dangers.

Decoy is a 13/2 chance with Blue Square and 888sport and was in good form in the autumn. He was beaten by Featherbed Lane (a general 10/1) over 2m at Ascot  in November but David Pipe‘s charge enjoys a big turnaround in the weights in the Lanzarote and should reverse the form. Act Of Kalanisi has run a couple of nice races this season and the booking of Barry Geraghty should be viewed as a positive sign. Dr Richard Newland‘s string is in good form and six-year-old should give supporters a run for their money at BetVictor’s 9/1. You could also make a case for the lightly-weighted Timesawastin at a general 14/1 as Evan Williams‘ gelding has definitely improved this season but, for once, the powerful yards of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson could come up short. Domtaline represents the champion trainer but there’s no guarantee he’ll stay the extra distance at Kempton and  looks worth opposing at the general 12/1 having been found wanting behind Grandouet at Haydock on his most recent start.

Lightning Strike was more likes his old self when successful at Hereford recently but can this once-useful sort reproduce that form in this much more competitive contest? Blue Square and 888sport have him at 11/1, while Ohio Gold is a general 10/1 to complete his hat-trick having won at Folkestone and Plumpton recently. Doncaster second Well Regarded and the equally unexposed Eastlake are both a general 12/1 but could find it tough giving weight to Swincombe Flame.