The action starts soon, with the 2011 Cricket World Cup getting under way on Saturday. The Green and Gold of Australia are the defending champions, but after losing the Ashes to England, and losing a pre tournament warm up match against India, punters will be asking themselves whether or not Australia and South Africa, the strongest sides from the Southern Hemisphere, will be worth a bet or not? The answer to that, is yes. They are younger than they were four years ago, almost a year younger on average compared to the Dad’s Army which beat all pretenders to their crown in the West Indies. Australia are still the second oldest team in the tournament, behind Sri Lanka, but the Aussies now have 11 members of their squad under 30. If you remember that occasion back in 2007, Australia did not enter that tournament on the back of any kind of form, and pundits were writing them off. However, the Aussies wouldn’t lie down, and beat Sri Lanka in the final to claim their third World Cup title in a row. That is why build up and form can usually be thrown out of the window when it comes to the very special cricketing nation of Australia.
Yes, they lost their recent World Cup warm up match against India, being completely undone in the middle of the match by the Indian spin attack. However, the Aussies still restricted India to a low tally thanks to a strong bowling performance, and on a pitch that wasn’t great (certainly not up to the standards of tournament cricket), certain things can be forgiven. Let’s put this in perspective. England were being touted around as one of the potential winners of the 2011 Cricket World Cup, but Australia just demolished them 6-1 in the ODI series following the Ashes. How can they not be strong contenders? Well, one of the factors is that they are playing on the sub-continent, where the rest of the world seems to always struggle, but you simply cannot write of Australia. No, they certainly don’t have the side packed full of genuine world class talent, and no, they certainly don’t have a genuine world beating spin bowler in the squad after leaving out Nathan Hauritz (even then the world class status would be debatable), but they always have Brett Lee to pick up the pieces and smash middle orders and tail enders. Australia are still the highest ranked One Day International team in the world, and you don’t get there by being slouches. The focus is not on them too much here, simply because of the location of the tournament, and a less than stellar couple of years for them. They will look to captain Ricky Ponting, who just returned from injury in the warm up match against India, and he showed his class by top scoring for his nation. Ponting, Brett Lee and all rounder Shane Watson will carry a lot of the expectation on their shoulders.
There is a trophy in sight, and that hungers the Australians like nothing else. They have a lot to prove, and they will be up against it. They are in a group along with Sri Lanka, Pakistan and New Zealand, so they will have to face plenty of spin. This is a long tournament and that is something which will play into the hands of the Australians. They will build momentum and get better as the tournament progresses, and you cannot discount them from winning again. The fact of the matter is that they are not as good as they were four years ago, but they will still be tough to beat. Because Sri Lanka and India are generally being priced shorter than the Australians in the betting for the 2011 Cricket World Cup, it is the perfect opportunity to back them. You don’t see them having too much trouble getting out of their group at all, and even if they don’t win it, they will be in the quarter finals and will give any opponent a run for their money. They look a bit disjointed, they look to have a major weakness in the bowling attack, but their recent form in the ODI series against England, has shown that there is still life in the green and gold. Look for big contributions from Ricky Ponting, who is second in the all time runs scored charts for the World Cup, behind only the great Sachin Tendulkar. After coming under fire so much during the Ashes series, Ponting will want to prove that he still has what it takes, and he really deals with adversity well. He is a leader, and will drag the rest of the squad up to his remarkably high standards. They have an easy path to the knockout stage, being in Group A, and expect that to build confidence for them.
Australia to win 2011 Cricket World Cup: 6/1 at SportingBet
As for South Africa, well, they cannot be overlooked either. It would be folly. The trouble is with the Proteas, is that like India, they often choke when it comes to the big tournaments. However, this time around they look a little more relaxed and a bit more prepared. It can’t be easy being a fan of South Africa, with so much expectation about your side, which doesn’t get fulfilled when it matters most. However, they have a big weapon to exploit at the 2011 World Cup, and that is Imran Tahir. For the first time ever probably, they have a genuine, talented, world class spinner to back up the pace from their seam bowlers, if he gets into the side. Being in the tougher half of the group stage along with India, England and Bangladesh, it will be a good variety of opponents for South Africa to test themselves against. The big threats in the batting line up will come from AB de Villiers and Hashim Amla, who are arguably the two best One Day International batsmen in the world at the moment. They will score heavy and score big, and with Graeme Smith being more than an influential leader, South Africa actually have a very well balanced and dangerous side, as long as they do not choke. It is this choking label (and I comically read somewhere that England won’t win the World Cup either because they are full of South Africans who always choke) which will keep them back in the 2011 Cricket World Cup betting odds, but they are well worth a punt at such good value. They have much more to offer in the bowling department than Australia, with Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel two of the best in the world with the new ball, and with the added bonus of quality spin in the attack, they may be understated, but South Africa, on paper at least, are well worth an each way flutter at the very least, and in many ways represent a stronger, more sensible bet than even Australia. If anyone other than Australia, South Africa, India or Sri Lanka win it, it will be a surprise. South Africa are in with a big chance if they are relaxed, which they should be not going in as favourites. Their impressive thrashing of Australia in a warm up match will really give them a lot of confidence to push forward.
South Africa to win 2011 Cricket World Cup: 11/2 at Totesport
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